Curia’s Polling Newsletter – Issue 61, October 2012

November 5th, 2012 at 12:00 pm by David Farrar

The executive summary of the newsletter:

October saw six four published – two Roy Morgan a One News Colmar Brunton poll and a 3 News Reid Research Poll.

 The average of the public polls has National 13% ahead of Labour in October. In September it was 12%, so the gap has slightly increased. However the centre-right would have had just 56 out of 120 seats in October and the centre-left (including NZ First) 62 seats.

Australia now has the Labor Party leading or tied in the polls.

 In the United States all three “polls of polls” show Obama marginally ahead in the popular vote and with a more comfortable margin in the popular vote. Unless the Democrats have a poor turnout for the election (and the early voting has shown lower turnout for them, than previously), then Obama looks likely to be re-elected, but with a greatly reduced electoral college margin from 2008, when he won by 192 electoral college votes and 7.2% on the popular vote. The Republicans look likely to win at least 235 of the 435 House seats but only 46 or 47 of the 100 Senate seats.

Romney’s best chance of victory is to win Ohio (18 votes) and Colorado (9 votes). Pollster and RCP say that Obama is 2.6% to 2.8% ahead in Ohio and 0.3% to 0.6% in Colorado. It is fair to say that if Romney wins Ohio, he could well become President. But the gap behind Obama in that state has been persistent and fairly stable.

In the UK the Conservatives remain 10% behind Labour.

In Canada the Liberal Party have shot up 7% on the news that Justin Trudeau (son of Pierre) has announced his bid for the Liberal leadership. They are now tied for second place with the NDP.

The normal two tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment and head of government approval sentiment for the five countries. New Zealand continues to top both.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on National’s achievements, Kim Dotcom, John Banks, the drinking age vote, plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

The full newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.

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4 Responses to “Curia’s Polling Newsletter – Issue 61, October 2012”

  1. F E Smith (3,305 comments) says:

    Australia now has the Labor Party leading or tied in the polls.

    Only if you use Newspoll as the guide.  I see that Andrew Bolt has a post today showing the Galaxy Poll has the Coalition up by 6 points on a two party preferred, with the Coalition winning an extra 20 seats if there was an election today.  That doesn’t look like Labor is leading to me.

    [DPF: The Galaxy poll is not that regular. Newspoll has them tied and it is Roy Morgan that has Labor ahead]

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  2. Scott (1,800 comments) says:

    Dick Morris reckons Romney will win comfortably-by as much as 8 points. He may be right. I think Romney by a good margin.

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  3. pq (728 comments) says:

    once again the losing assumption that NZ First belongs with a left coalition, believe it enough it can happen, lose Government benches

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  4. iMP (2,385 comments) says:

    I have tracked the following on Romney-Obama;

    1. Dick Morris (ex Clinton aid): Romney landslide
    2. Karl Rove (ex Bush aid): Romney win
    3. Michael Barone (Washington Examiner): Romney landslide
    4. ‘Insider’ (The Ulsterman Report): Romney win
    5. CoNZervative: Romney by 5-8pts
    6. Cameron Slater (Whaleoil and new Truth ed.): Obama win

    Another 11 newspapers who endorsed Obama 2008 have switched to Romney last few days.

    Looks like Dem safe PENN is also going Republican. Clinton has been sent there and is doing FOUR rallies in one day, so Obama camp must be worried.

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