The path to the leadership

November 19th, 2012 at 1:00 pm by David Farrar
  1. After losing post election ballot, make visionary speeches to party activists on issues outside portfolio areas. 
  2. Make sure you invite columnists and bloggers to the speeches
  3. Have party supporters push for future leadership votes to include party members, where you have majority support
  4. Have bloggers and columnists call call for a change of leadership just before the conference
  5. Have party activists vote down hierarchy’s rule changes and get threshold for leadership challenge lowered to 40%
  6. Get party activists to pass a specific resolution to schedule a caucus vote early next year needing only a 40% threshold to challenge.
  7. Refuse to pledge loyalty to Leader after vote
  8. When Leader looks to do a special vote immediately, pledge support and loyalty for now
  9. Have angry old guard insist you be sacked or demoted, so that you are made a martyr
  10. Wait for polls to drop for party, due to infighting, so that 40% of caucus will vote for a leadership ballot in February
  11. If you don’t quite get the numbers in February, then have very angry and noisy party activists get to work on yet to be agreed new selection and list ranking rules.
  12. Get new selection rules in place, weakening power of NZ hierarchy in selections
  13. Have your supporters win selections in winnable seats and gain high list rankings
  14. Then at first caucus meeting after the next election, you have at least 40% to challenge for leadership and force a ballot – which you win
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21 Responses to “The path to the leadership”

  1. Harriet (4,614 comments) says:

    15. After winning – issue uniforms and Kalashnikovs.

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  2. The Bin Man (6 comments) says:

    Typical poorly researched effort by Farrar. You forgot point number 2. Steal underpants. Which of course throws all the rest of it into numerical dissaray. A bit like Labour really.
    I am enjoying the complete silence from the government which proves they understand the proverb.
    When your enemy is making a mistake never interrupt them.
    @nzbinman

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  3. toad (3,672 comments) says:

    15. Become Deputy Prime Minister and Associate Minister of Finance because the Greens now out-poll Labour.

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  4. bhudson (4,736 comments) says:

    16. Given 15 above, buy a one way ticket to Greece – the outcome is the same, but the weather is better!

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  5. ross69 (3,652 comments) says:

    Toad

    What poll are you referring to?

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  6. ross69 (3,652 comments) says:

    > I am enjoying the complete silence from the government

    Hmmm I’m sure I heard the PM say that he’d never heard of Kim Dotcom before the January raid. No doubt if John Key is found to have lied (again), he will do the honourable thing and resign.

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  7. Cunningham (828 comments) says:

    Haha nice deflect there ross69. Talk about trying to get off topic!

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  8. Pete George (23,330 comments) says:

    Here’s another step:

    Labour Leader calls caucus meeting

    David Shearer | Monday, November 19, 2012 – 14:03

    Labour Leader David Shearer has called his caucus to a meeting in Wellington at 4pm tomorrow.

    “I will be seeking the endorsement of my colleagues for the Labour leadership.

    “The endorsement I’m seeking will be in line with the decision made by Labour Party members at this weekend’s conference that I must have at least 60% support of the caucus.

    “A formal endorsement vote will also still be held in February in accordance with the new rules approved by Party members.

    “I’m holding this vote tomorrow to demonstrate that I have the support of my caucus and to put recent speculation to bed.

    “It is important that these matters are resolved so that Labour can lift its sights to focus on the serious challenges facing the country, including jobs, education and housing affordability,” said David Shearer.

    http://www.labour.org.nz/news/labour-leader-calls-caucus-meeting

    A show of farce tomorrow and then everyone has three months to choose their handbags?

    The sun will rise again tomorrow, along with the speculation. Groundhog day until February.

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  9. Keeping Stock (10,177 comments) says:

    I’m sure he will Ross69. But do you think that Dotcom will “do the honourable thing” and bugger off if HE is found to be lying? Pass me a Tui…

    In the meantime, I wonder how those MP’s who openly support Cunliffe are feeling this afternoon now that David Shearer has confirmed that it’s all or nothing tomorrow. D’ya reckon Sue Moroney, Moana Mackey, Charles Chauvel, Su’a William Sio, Parekura Horomia, Rino Titakatene, Raymond Huo, Liane Dalziel, Nanaia Mahuta and Rajen Prasad might have pulled their CV’s up on the computer today to update them? Openly plotting against the leader can be seriously career-limiting…

    http://keepingstock.blogspot.co.nz/2012/11/on-offensive-continued.html

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  10. Pete George (23,330 comments) says:

    KS – if you drop all them to the bottom of the pecking order imagine the quality of the front end of the Labour line-up then?

    Ah, hang on, don’t worry about trying that.

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  11. bhudson (4,736 comments) says:

    KS,

    There is no “all or nothing.” Shearer will get 100% support tomorrow because the scheduled Feb test of confidence must still go ahead.

    Everyone will nod and talk about sticking together and beating National with great policy. And how unity is crucial to success. And how perception of instability will destroy their chances of electoral success.

    And everyone will believe it – It’s just that, secretly, they won’t all agree on who is the only leader who they should be united against.

    Mr Scary – Chris Hipkins – will put the fear of God into, well no one really. But I’m sure he’ll raise his voice an octave or two and accuse the Camp Cunliffe protagonists of threatening the future of NZ. Then someone else will say something and people will start listening again.

    One thing Hipkins is bound to raise is that by being perceived as still seeking the leadership, Cunliffe is undermining public confidence in Labour as a credible alternative to National. That Labour have to be seen as united behind the leader.

    This thing is that argument also works the other way. Shearer is very likely to find his leadership put to the party in Feb. He is all but certain to lose that. HE could create the unity Hipkins calls for now by acknowledging his days are numbered and resigning immediately to enable the party (not just caucus) to unite behind the party’s choice – Cunliffe.

    But of course he won’t. Just like Cunliffe won’t drop his ambitions. (And neither will Grant Robertson for that matter.) So this will play out in Feb and anything before that is mere lobbying and jockeying for position.

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  12. Martin Gibson (230 comments) says:

    Wasn’t step 4: “Shave off moustache while leaving beard to project a strange religious fundamentalist look”?

    It’s such a paradox that the people most capable of running the country could never stomach all of this horrible bullshit. I guess the list system seeks to address that, but there are still the same prats putting the list together.

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  13. Nostalgia-NZ (5,045 comments) says:

    Having a hole a nice big bullet wound in one foot, Cunnliffe is now lining up the other to provide matching holes.

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  14. Nostalgia-NZ (5,045 comments) says:

    bhudson putting your name to Shearer losing in February?

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  15. bhudson (4,736 comments) says:

    NN-Z,

    I don’t care either way. I have no dog in this fight.

    I am happy to take a balanced view and wish Labour ignominious electoral defeat whichever of them is leading the party.

    Their infighting is a source of fun for those of us not involved.

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  16. La Grand Fromage (145 comments) says:

    Cunliffe can’t move before February as he has a very important issue he needs to sort out before then…what does he do about his total lack of a chin.

    He has tried the full beard but that made him look like captains birdseye’s retarded nephew.

    He tried the bootstrap but that made him look like an Amish sex offender.

    He could try always being seen wearing a bike helmet with a dark coloured chin strap but probably his only real option is to draw one on with a vivid marker.

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  17. Nostalgia-NZ (5,045 comments) says:

    What about the photo on the beach or where ever it was. He was so taken by it he autographed it and sent it to himself by special delivery. So much for last week’s blogger’s revolution.

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  18. Pete George (23,330 comments) says:

    So much for last week’s blogger’s revolution.

    There’s still a heap of revolving going on at The Standard. They no longer seem to think they are circling the prey though.

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  19. bhudson (4,736 comments) says:

    NN-Z,

    Your sudden public support for Shearer is laudable. Does Trevor Mallard pay you for this, or do you do it out of loyalty to him?

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  20. Nostalgia-NZ (5,045 comments) says:

    I don’t log in there Pete George but if I did I’d expect to see a fair amount of egg being wiped off people’s face, about the same as here.

    Thanks bhudson, on that basis I should expect a cheque.

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  21. kiwi in america (2,477 comments) says:

    What lends credibility to the list is that all of the criticism of Shearer by The Standard, Brian Edwards, Chris Trotter, Vernon Small etc has not really been answered by one speech that needed a massive bribe for it to be considered politically significant. It was sufficiently strong enough to embolden the Shearer camp to call for Tuesday’s ‘deciding’ vote but it will not quell Cunliffe’s ambition because he knows he’s got grassroots support and the rules are now on his side.

    Cameron Slater posted links at Whaleoil to a 4 part BBC documentary of British Labour’s wilderness years. The rule changes that the Labour Conference voted on at the weekend bear striking resemblence to the same rules that empowed Tony Benn and the left wing trade union element to wreak havoc on UK Labour’s electoral chances. It took a mammoth effort by Kinnock then Smith to pave the way for Blair’s modernization to bring UK Labour back into ideologically presentable enough shape to be the government in 1997.

    For all National’s troubles the circular firing squad at Team Labour is a godsend. I note that, even though the conventional wisdom is to stay silent when your enemies are committing political hari kari, John Key coudn’t help himself and got some good digs in: “if they cant run their own party how can they run the country”.

    Pass the popcorn!

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