The truth remains: no (or minimal) rocket attacks from Hamas – no incursions into Gaza by Israel (except random surgical strikes on known terrorists on long held Israeli target lists – actions that go on regardless of rocket related provocations)

Rocket fire into Israel accelarated through the 2000s but reach a crescendo that led to Operation Iron Lead. 2002 (35), 2003 (155), 2004 (281), 2005 (1255), 2006 (1777) then a big jump in 2007 (2807) and by the time Iron Lead commenced in late December 2008 the total for 2008 alone had peaked at 3716! When you look at the 2009 figure (858) most of that was concentrated in the early part of the year right after the cessation of Iron Lead and during the negotiation period. The remaining 10 months of 2009 the numbers dropped to only 300 or less than a 10th of what was being fired in the run up to Iron Lead. 2010 saw that quiet trend continuing (365) and this starting to climb again in 2011 to 680. Note that the Israeli absorbed rocket fire of that magnitude (680) for years without triggering a major Gaza intervention. BUT by mid Nov 2012 almost 2000 rockets have been fired with the monthly trend in 2012 (aside from 2 small spikes in March and June) being only 22 rockets per month until October it climbed to 171 and in November we’re at 1339 – a massive escalation! So you can say what you want about the Israeli elections but clearly Operation Pillar of Fire was in reaction to the sudden serious escalation in rocket attacks at the end of this year.
[Source is Wikipedia for all attacks each one is footnoted and verified].

If you look at the history of Israeli elections, few wars co-incide neatly with your theory partly because so many elections are triggered by the collapse of unstable multi party coalitions brought about by the Israeli political system which is an proportional system with no minimum threshold thus allowing many small parties representing extremist elements in Israeli society into the Knesset. Unnecessary, overreaching and unpopular wars result in defeat at the polls in Israel. Operation Pillar of Fire has bi partisan support so, echoing TimG Oz, its hard to see how Netanyahu gains votes at the expense of his likely rival Prime Ministerial opponent by launching Pillar of Fire. I’m not saying that the January elections have absolutely no bearing on this action but you are alleging that politics is pretty much the main reason for the IDF’s action. Israeli politics is far too complex and nuanced for such a simplistic representation.

If I accept your figure, for rocket attacks, then I must accept the Israeli government has failed to protect its people. How do you feel about a proportionate and measured response from Israel, say about 800 Israeli rockets into Gaza?

The fact that Hamas has less capability, does not give them any moral high ground.

Kea Hamas fired 7-800 rockets per year into Israel, 2010, 2011, 2012. It was only when the election came around, they did this, like they did exact same time four years ago. The rocket rate was consistent throughout, the timing was entirely Israel’s decision. Simple. As. That.

If Saudi Arabia isn’t based on religion, someone should tell them.

They were there before Islam was invented. Same as the people in the region, now known as Israel, were there before Judaism was invented.

As for the timing of the attacks; Are you implying Hamas timed their, hundreds of, rockets to promote Israeli politicians ?

I cited it all above: see my 2:57.

Both timings of violence with elections, plus numbers of attacks. The tell is they did it last time at Christmas in Cast Lead four years ago and they’re doing it again now for the January elections, and the fact per that table shows they’ve been doing it a lot, but who cares about that, because if you’re suggesting they did it four years ago and now they’re doing it four years later when rockets have been fired all throughout at the same rates, 2010, 2011, 2012. That’s the tell. But you’re saying this timing isn’t designed? I see.

As for the rest of your comment, I have no idea why you imagine the rights and wrongs of the Jabari killing has anything whatsoever to anything I’ve been saying so you’ll have to forgive me for in fact disregarding those points but I’m quite happy to answer any criticism of anything I have actually said, if you choose to deliver any.

No it isnt mad. This is not the US we are talking with SSBNs for africa. It is quite conceivable for some demented person who is the leader of quite a large country, who gains a nuclear weapon, to convince himself that he can attack and take out all means of retalation in a quick block of coordinated strikes. And, whats the worst that could happen – you get virgins – yay.

Firstly, you don’t actually have any evidence that it is the case. No documentation, no inside information. Your assertion is based purely on the timing of this round of violence.

The attack on Jabari had bipartisan approval at the Knesset. Ehud Barak from the Indenpendence Party (ex Labour) and Netanyahu from Likud. So it was unlikely to score votes one over the other. The talk that he was a possible peacebroker is also speculation. One thing that is more clear is that he indoctrinated youth to do his dirty work for him. Usually the response operations target the actual youths, this one aimed at the mastermind.

Of course Protecting Civilians will be a popular with the electorate. Todays Polls show that 90% of Israelis support the operation, however only 1 in four support a ground invasion.

If anything, military operation is risky to an election. Any operation which is seen to put Israeli lives at unnecessary risk will be harmful to politicians. Just look at Ehud Olmert – his popularity went through the floor after it was said that the Lebanon action in 2006 put soldiers in undue risk from Hezbollah terrorists.

Right now Barak and Netanyahu are in intense discussions over terms of ceasefire. This could also affect the polling, depending on the outcome. It is likely that Hamas will be rewarded financially for their terror campaign, via international aid or other loosening of measures against them to prevent terror.

Any suggestion that killing Jabari actually was not the right thing will be heavily dissected in Israel (with the free press), and there is no guarantee that it provides popular support to politicians.

I expect that you will selectively ignore, disregard or argue these points, with innuendo. I will have limited time to respond, but I believe the claim is suitably refuted and this comment should be a reference for claims in the future.

Understanding both history and the Bible clarifies the relevant principles of Israel today but many people have only one and many have neither of these.

The critical distinction to make in breaking through this if one is interested is to make in one’s mind a clear and present distinction between the people of a country and its leadership. This isolates the bad guys and it makes sense, those are who are responsible are these people.

Then consider the actions of said leadership over history in clear light of day and consider whether, over time, decades, they have done the right or the wrong thing in progressing the best interests of their citizens.

To illustrate the extreme spectrum of this western confusion over Israel, consider that there is strong support from many US right-wing Christian nutters groups precisely for the destruction of Israel so as to hasten the rapture and the Second Coming.

People who support the Israeli leadership as they, once again, destroy any chance at stability for their own people for the foreseeable future, are to a lessor degree, on the same spectrum as those right wing Christians.

I know that’s not a comfortable thought, but it’s true.

Thanks mm, appreciate that.