December 24th, 2012 at 9:00 am by David Farrar
Okay, let’s see if I can improve upon 9.5/20 as I got for 2012 predictions. Here goes ,y predictions for 2013.
- At least two state owned power companies will have successful partial floats.
- Tracey Martin will be elected/anointed Deputy Leader of NZ First.
- Holly Walker’s Lobbying Disclosure Bill will not be paseed into law in 2013, even if amended.
- There will be at least three new Ministers by the end of 2013 (new being not Ministers today).
- Louisa Wall’s marriage bill will pass into law by June 2013, with at least 75 votes at third reading.
- David Shearer will demote at least two front-benchers to the backbenches.
- David Carter will be elected Speaker of the House, but it will not be a unanimous vote.
- Paul Foster-Bell will become an MP in 2013.
- The 2013 census will see two new general seats and one new Maori seat.
- David Cunliffe will not be rehabilitated and remain off the front bench.
- An MP will get engaged and a different one will get pregnant.
- Current or former Members of Parliament will contest both the Wellington and Auckland Mayoralties.
- David Clark’s Mondayisation Bill will pass 61 votes to 60 at 3rd reading.
- During the year at least three National MPs will announce they will retire at the 2014 election.
- Over the year, National will on average of all public polls, poll higher than Labour and Greens combined but not Labour, Greens and NZ First.
- Brendan Horan will not be an MP by the end of 2013.
- The 2013 Budget will project a small surplus for 2014/15.
- NZ will not win the election for the UN Security Council, as too many countries think we are part of Australia who have just got elected.
- Winston will get thrown out of the House by the new Speaker.
- The thresholds for parliamentary representation will remain unchanged at 5% party vote or 1 electorate seat.