20 predictions for 2013

December 24th, 2012 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

Okay, let’s see if I can improve upon 9.5/20 as I got for 2012 . Here goes ,y for 2013.

  1. At least two state owned power companies will have successful partial floats.
  2. Tracey Martin will be elected/anointed Deputy Leader of NZ First.
  3. Holly Walker’s Lobbying Disclosure Bill will not be paseed into law in 2013, even if amended.
  4. There will be at least three new Ministers by the end of 2013 (new being not Ministers today).
  5. Louisa Wall’s marriage bill will pass into law by June 2013, with at least 75 votes at third reading.
  6. David Shearer will demote at least two front-benchers to the backbenches.
  7. David Carter will be elected Speaker of the House, but it will not be a unanimous vote.
  8. Paul Foster-Bell will become an MP in 2013.
  9. The 2013 census will see two new general seats and one new Maori seat.
  10. David Cunliffe will not be rehabilitated and remain off the front bench.
  11. An MP will get engaged and a different one will get pregnant.
  12. Current or former Members of Parliament will contest both the Wellington and Auckland Mayoralties.
  13. David Clark’s Mondayisation Bill will pass 61 votes to 60 at 3rd reading.
  14. During the year at least three National MPs will announce they will retire at the 2014 election.
  15. Over the year, National will on average of all public polls, poll higher than Labour and Greens combined but not Labour, Greens and NZ First.
  16. Brendan Horan will not be an MP by the end of 2013.
  17. The 2013 Budget will project a small surplus for 2014/15.
  18. NZ will not win the election for the UN Security Council, as too many countries think we are part of Australia who have just got elected.
  19. Winston will get thrown out of the House by the new Speaker.
  20. The thresholds for parliamentary representation will remain unchanged at 5% party vote or 1 electorate seat.
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23 Responses to “20 predictions for 2013”

  1. skyblue (210 comments) says:

    Lab/Greens will poll together much higher than National. They are already even. We are deluded if we think Nats will win 3 elections. Politics in NZ is already slightly left of center and Lab/Greens will imply we need a shift to the left as present govt is right wing. I feel in 2013, Nats will implode as polling will show a lead for Lab/Greens.
    NZ has an entitlement mentality now which will not be able to be shrugged off at all.

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  2. Pete George (23,558 comments) says:

    17. The 2013 Budget will project a small surplus for 2014/15.
    That’s not a prediction, it’s a National obsession.

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  3. Rodders (1,755 comments) says:

    Even better if Winston is not an MP by the end of 2013.

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  4. iMP (2,383 comments) says:

    I agree Skyblue. National is climbing a steep slope to win 2014. David Shearer has very good chance of being PM, Russell Deputy, but Maori Party will be kingmaker. National will get first bite at a coalition, and will offer Winnie Foreign Affairs while attempting to couple a coalition. But no guarantee NZF will be there; watch Conservatives.

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  5. NeutralObserver (94 comments) says:

    8. The election for the UNSC seat is October 2014 – so you are a wee bit premature.

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  6. bringbackdemocracy (427 comments) says:

    Maori party will continue to implode.
    Conservatives will start to out poll NZ First more regularly. ( happened already in 2011 with Colmar Brunton)
    Still to early to call 2014 election

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  7. Manolo (13,735 comments) says:

    The 2013 Budget will project a small surplus for 2014/15.

    Give us a break, DPF. Are you announcing more taxes, so can Double Dipton make this possible?

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  8. alex (304 comments) says:

    Judith Collins will become leader of National after Key’s personal poll ratings collapse.

    Shearer vs Cunliffe will still be an ongoing battle this time next year, a la Rudd vs Gillard.

    Neither party will announce any substantive policy.

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  9. flipper (4,050 comments) says:

    Alex…. Justification, please.

    PDF …. Foster Bell, an amiable but an ex MFAT fellow, who will need to ensure that his CV is accurate – in all respects.

    Labour/ red melon(Green) advocates — Yes, possibly, by promising to print money.
    Tracey Martin and the Peters Party (say, what will happen if there is road accident statistic? Dissolution? :) ) …. WGAS !

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  10. NeutralObserver (94 comments) says:

    Flipper – not ex MFAT at all Still there.

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  11. tvb (4,415 comments) says:

    This is a very modest list. Surely you could have been bolder. I assume the liberals will win the Australian election. What about Germany? Something surprising politically will happen in 2013. But what. I guess it would not be a surprise. A death perhaps. Who???

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  12. Viking2 (11,467 comments) says:

    France will implode along with many Arab Nations causing the rest of Europe to collapse.

    Just watch the price of oil and gold.

    Sell any you have now.

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  13. NeutralObserver (94 comments) says:

    Wouldn’t you buy – gold always a refuge, arabs collapse = oil skyrockets

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  14. flipper (4,050 comments) says:

    Neutral…..
    Thanks, correction noted.
    He clearly was a leave during the last GE campaign.
    Observation re CV still APPLIES.
    HND

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  15. joana (1,983 comments) says:

    Rodders,
    His mum lived till 97 so keep your prayers up.

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  16. alex (304 comments) says:

    @ Flipper – Tongue in cheek bro.

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  17. Jinky (185 comments) says:

    prediction 4. Parata and who else will be replaced?

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  18. David Garrett (7,270 comments) says:

    “Winston will be thrown out the House” is pretty much up there with “it will be cold next winter”…

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  19. Rex Widerstrom (5,354 comments) says:

    Manolo asks:

    Give us a break, DPF. Are you announcing more taxes, so can Double Dipton make this possible?

    Yes I was dismayed to see this in DPF’s predictions, given his very good knowledge of what’s going on in Wellington. Wayne Swan has waited till the eve of the Christmas holidays to annoucne that – even with commodities still underpinning the econmy – the government is abandoning its pledge to declare a surlus in 2013. That followed Urging from the OECD.

    The OECD will say in the event of a further big turndown the authorities should ”let the automatic stabilisers work and should slow budget consolidation”.

    ”Automatic stabilisers” are the changes that automatically weaken the budget as the economy turns down, cutting tax collections and in some cases boosting welfare payments.

    Trying to stand in their way by boosting tax collections or cutting payments runs the risk of slowing the economy further.

    Does English somehow think NZ is immune from this effect, or that he’s a smarter than Swan and can somehow avoid it? (who was named the world’s best Treasurer, after all).

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  20. Longknives (4,737 comments) says:

    21. The All Blacks will lose a game and blame the ref…..
    22. The All Blacks will lose a game and blame food poisoning….

    Merry Christmas Bereal!

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  21. Zapper (1,021 comments) says:

    That’s quit bold longknives.

    It’s very rare for the All Blacks team or management to blame anything for a loss, besides themselves and the opposition.

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  22. Lucy (32 comments) says:

    Trying to find your 2012 predictions to see how accurate you are. You should probably review and predict in the same post.

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  23. bchapman (649 comments) says:

    Any chance unemployment will get below 7% orGDP might get back above 2.5%. You know something positive might even happen to NZ?

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