Latest polls

December 2nd, 2012 at 7:22 pm by David Farrar

Curiablog has the latest from One News and 3 News.

Both are good news for David Shearer. It looks like the public like him sacking David Cunliffe. National also down a bit in both polls.

3 News would have the Maori Party hold the balance of power on their poll, while One News would have a centre-left Government able to form.

The last election was very close between the CR and CL, and these polls show 2014 is likely to be also.

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45 Responses to “Latest polls”

  1. bhudson (4,736 comments) says:

    Shearer now has to back this up with a similar, or stronger, showing in Feb prior to the leadership test. If he drops back the vultures will be stalking.

    He needs to (i) keep himself in the media and (ii) not be caught out by bumbling, stumbling and mumbling on TV.

    The problem with that is that his history shows that more of (i) leads to a breakdown in (ii).

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  2. kowtow (7,921 comments) says:

    Bugger the Maoris holding the balance.

    National and Labour could form a “grand coalition”.There’s very little between them these days.

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  3. bhudson (4,736 comments) says:

    kowtow,

    There was about $16bn (borrowing) between them last year. And any number of those Labour Party conference remits would kill any grand coalition notion stone dead.

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  4. dog_eat_dog (761 comments) says:

    I take major issue with One News describing a potential Labour/Greens/Mana government as ‘The Centre-Left’. This is political obfuscation at its finest.

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  5. Dyannt (28 comments) says:

    Based on past experience – any new government will spend the following 3 years blaming the National led government for all the ills of the world and not actually get anything done.

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  6. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    Only three years? The current lot are still at it!

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  7. Nostalgia-NZ (5,029 comments) says:

    bhudson 7.39. Got yourself in a bit of a hole with that one.
    Caucus or the party don’t turn on Shearer when polling is going up, no matter however far you keep rowing that canoe.

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  8. bhudson (4,736 comments) says:

    NN-Z,

    No I didn’t. I predicted a week or more ago that this poll result would be a boost for Shearer. I also predicted that it would fall back to business as usual come February.

    I didn’t pick the small increase for the Labour Party, but I will put that down to the extended media coverage over the past couple of weeks, with the party also getting some of the ‘manning up’ boost that Shearer got.

    If Shearer stays out of the media he will naturally drop back and Cunliffe’s crew will be circling. If he stays in the media but makes the same historical bumbling, stumbling, mumbling mistakes then Cunliffe’s crew will be circling.

    Based on his past performance it’s almost a ‘no win’ situation for him.

    So far it runs according to plan.

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  9. Lazybum (259 comments) says:

    We are heading for a communist govt in NZ in 2014. National have no show I am afraid. The full extent of the communist Greens will not be exposed as the Nats have not got the balls to say so. Those nice fuzzy wuzzy Greens will be in peoples minds in 2014.

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  10. RF (1,342 comments) says:

    Lazybum.

    The toxic greens. Time to lock up our daughters as the green tide will slowly spread across the landscape.

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  11. Key is our man (833 comments) says:

    These two polls are really bad news for John Key and his bumbling useless ministers. John Key has fallen below 40% and that is a worrying sign. Hope he utilises the summer break and gets rid of the non performing ministers and go after the Greens and their lunatic policies. Considering there won’t be any coalition partners available for National, he should also work to get NZ First on board and not rule them out.

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  12. Nostalgia-NZ (5,029 comments) says:

    Sure bhudson, come February one of us will be proved right.

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  13. kowtow (7,921 comments) says:

    Every time the MSM talk “environment” or AGW etc it’s basically a free ad for the Melons. Last night TV3 news spent an inordinate amount of time on some dick who’s been surf boarding against sea bed mining.

    The media ( in their well paid jobs) and the anti people Greens are against industry,jobs and wealth. But then we’ll have to wait for them to get into office to prove how really dangerous they actually are.

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  14. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    Winston for Epsom?

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  15. bhudson (4,736 comments) says:

    NN-Z,

    Yes indeed. But only one of us can win whatever the Feb outcome might be.

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  16. Lazybum (259 comments) says:

    RF – there are sexual diseases that are Green in colour.

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  17. Redbaiter (8,000 comments) says:

    “Hope he utilises the summer break and gets rid of the non performing ministers”

    That would be all of them.

    Clueless nincompoops who can only think in terms of out-socialising the socialists.

    NZ is fucked and it is the impotence of the National Party (and especially little boy Key) to blame.

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  18. Nostalgia-NZ (5,029 comments) says:

    bhudson.

    Of course.

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  19. bhudson (4,736 comments) says:

    NN-Z,

    I apologise if I didn’t articulate that perfectly. My view is that the outcome for National is good irrespective of which of Cunliffe and Shearer is leader post-Feb – that I can be wrong in my prediction and still ‘win’ in terms of 2014

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  20. Mark (1,421 comments) says:

    whichever way you look at it it is an endorsement for shearer of the strong stand he took with Cunliff. The big question now is whether it is a dead cat bounce or whether he can sustain some upward momentum. I expect that he has, barring a catastrophe, done enough to see Cunliff off in February 2013. Next year the government has to get the asset sales programme under way. If it stalls again or if the economy takes such a dive that the asset sales simply are not a viable option then National will have real problems retaining power. However if they can deliver on the election policy and it is a successful float then they have a very good shot at retaining power.

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  21. mikenmild (11,246 comments) says:

    It’d be pretty pathetic commentary on a government if a few little asset sales were the only successes they could claim, though.

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  22. Mark (1,421 comments) says:

    mm Dont disagree but it was the central policy plank for National at the last election and one that they have failed to deliver on. By any measure to date it has been a failure for National and it is one that is going to make or break then next year assuming labour dont self destruct

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  23. Pete George (23,296 comments) says:

    National’s biggest success is managing through the worst financial problems for nearly a century that have been a major factor right through their four years. I guess they could have spent up large or laid off half the public service but that would have been reckless.

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  24. hj (6,698 comments) says:

    shearer made a speech to the Hornby Working mens club saying migrants shouldn’t be taking jobs off locals. The others see migrants as essential for economic growth (especially when they pay a premium for property) … our own people are toast… dirt… etc, etc.

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  25. hj (6,698 comments) says:

    You’d think NZ First would be able to capitalise on this:

    John Carran, 2 April 1996

    “Vehement opposition to immigration, particularly from Asian countries, in New Zealand from an ill-informed and xenophobic rabble persists despite overwhelming evidence that immigration will improve our long term economic prospects.

    In 1988 The Institute of Policy Studies published detailed research by Jacques Poot, Ganesh Nana and Bryan Philpott on the effects of migration on the New Zealand economy. The research, which abstracted from the social and environmental impact of immigration, concluded that “…a significant migration inflow can be beneficial to the performance of the New Zealand economy and subsequent consumption and income levels.” The authors point out that this is in general agreement with Australian research on the economic consequences of immigration.

    -
    -
    Of course there is more to life than attaining economic excellence. The social and environmental impact of immigration also needs to be considered. But here the reasons given for restricting immigration range from pathetic to extremely dodgy. Most of the accusations are barely disguised racist piffle backed by tenuous rumours and cloudy anecdotes. Winston Peters’ stirring of the masses has exposed the ignorance and racial biases of a small and distasteful section of New Zealand society. These people yearn for a cloistered, inhibited, white (with a bit of brown at the edges) dominated utopia fondly envisaged by racists and xenophobes everywhere.

    http://www.gmi.co.nz/news/1021/opposition-to-immigration-why-let-the-arguments-get-in-the-way.aspx

    Savings Working Group
    January 2011

    “The big adverse gap in productivity between New Zealand and other countries opened up from the 1970s to the early 1990s. The policy choice that increased immigration – given the number of employers increasingly unable to pay First-World wages to the existing population and all the capital requirements that increasing populations involve – looks likely to have worked almost directly against the adjustment New Zealand needed to make and it might have been better off with a lower rate of net immigration. This adjustment would have involved a lower real interest rate (and cost of capital) and a lower real exchange rate, meaning a more favourable environment for raising the low level of productive capital per worker and labour productivity. The low level of capital per worker is a striking symptom of New Zealand’s economic challenge.

    http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/reviews-consultation/savingsworkinggroup/pdfs/swg-report-jan11.pdf

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  26. Richard29 (377 comments) says:

    “It looks like the public like him sacking David Cunliffe.”

    Or it could mean that he did a good speech at the conference and actually announced some policy for the first time since he became opposition leader.

    I know Wellingtonians and pundits seem to think that things like leadership battles and caucus votes are really important to the average voter – but most people really don’t care.

    If you cut out the noise from minor parties and just look at the left and right blocks then it seems that there has been a shift of perhaps 1-2 percent towards Labour.

    Given that Shearer announced a 2 billion plan to invest in affordable housing and that a substantial chunk of middle ground voters care about housing affordability it’s not a particularly surprising result.

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  27. LabourDoesntWork (286 comments) says:

    Looks like a major shitmanoevre of chairs on the Shitanic.

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  28. Manolo (13,514 comments) says:

    Sad state of affairs when the racist Maori Party holds the balance of power. NZ is royally screwed.

    Smile-and-wave Key needs to get his act together. Less aloofness and more decisive measures are required on his part. Firing incompetent ministers (e.g., Wilkinson, Parata) would also help.

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  29. Pete George (23,296 comments) says:

    Maori Party doesn’t hold the balance of power.

    And the polls mean nothing in that regard, people think differently responding to a poll (spur of the moment choice of party) compared to considering electoral options.

    And the two polls have slight differences, I’ve compared and pondered them – Pondering the polls.

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  30. bringbackdemocracy (414 comments) says:

    National need coalition partners like the Conservative party or else wussel will be on the printing press.

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  31. Pete George (23,296 comments) says:

    As far as polls go, media coverage rules. They influence the numbers, count the numbers, and then over-report the numbers.

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  32. Hamnida (905 comments) says:

    Looks like it’s good night for the Torries.

    Shit job in government if you ask me – Re-invent the failed policies of 1984 – 1999 and hope New Zealanders don’t notice because John Key smiles a lot.

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  33. graham (2,284 comments) says:

    Fancy that – a politician who smiles.

    Never seen that before …

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Helen_Clark_2.jpg

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  34. RightNow (6,836 comments) says:

    Dead cat bounce ha ha.

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  35. Paulus (2,556 comments) says:

    The only winner is Greenpeace NZ Branch leader Russel Norman who can, and will, demand the world from Labour if Labour want power.
    God Defend New Zealand, because nobody else will.

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  36. YesWeDid (1,041 comments) says:

    So if the polls are predicting that Labour & The Greens together would have enough seats to form a government then I guess DPF will have to stop going on about an unwieldy Labour-Greens-NZFirst-MaoriParty-Mana coalition.

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  37. Chuck Bird (4,749 comments) says:

    National needs to go for more votes. Bring in binding referenda on conscience issues. I heard JK say this morning that voters may think differently when in the voting both than on the phone or words to that effects. The same would apply to a referendum.

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  38. backster (2,122 comments) says:

    GRAHAM…I know its’ a smile but are they her teeth, or did she borrow them from the little Pony, and if the teeth aren’t hers how do we know the smile is?

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  39. Scott (1,736 comments) says:

    Totally agree with you Chuck. A referendum on gay marriage would be a good start.

    The difficulty it seems to me is that National’s political instincts appear to be to go left at each and every opportunity. On issues like gay marriage, treaty settlements and Palestinian sovereignty, they are just as left-wing as the Labour Party.

    They have not touched anything of the Labour governments legislative program of the previous 9 years. Here is some right wing things they could do, that would be good for this country.

    Bring in youth rates to get our young people into work at an affordable cost for employers.

    Do something about our debt situation by cutting back on unnecessary welfare programs – the middle class social welfare program known as working for families comes to mind.

    Restore the authority of parents by repealing the anti-smacking legislation.

    Give some much needed attention to national defence. Having an air force would be a good idea. At the moment the only person with combat aircraft I understand is Peter Jackson.

    Drop all of the incredibly controversial social legislation that is being introduced by the Labour Party. Get it all out of Parliament.

    And maybe do what they said they were going to do – settle all treaty of Waitangi claims by 2014. Full and final, shut the book. We are done. Give the tax payer some relief.

    Less government and then we could lower taxes. The individual could keep more of what he or she earns – a radical concept I know, but a good one.

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  40. ChardonnayGuy (1,183 comments) says:

    No, Chuck, sorry. To be perfectly honest, I think that even your conservative Christian friends are experiencing dissent on that one. The Catholics seem to be getting frosty cold feet over the prospect of binding referenda given what they consider worrisome euthanasia referenda in Switzerland and the United States and are letting their fundie mates know about it. Added to which, Key has ruled out binding referenda. And I can see the point. After all, it has virtually bankrupted the Californian government already. Moreover, we are living in a severe recession and that money needs to be earmarked for public education, public health, Christchurch reconstruction and other core government social services.

    Referenda are expensive to mount. That fact seems lost on its proponents, who usually seem to have never served in public office and seem willing to spend other people’s taxes to suit their pet prejudices.

    And no, I don’t particularly like the Labour/Green asset sales referendum idea, either. IMHO, the centre-left should be spending far more time elaborating its Capital Gains Tax proposals as a meaningful alternative to asset sales.

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  41. OTGO (523 comments) says:

    To shore up support for another party nearer to the right of National maybe JK should resign and start up a new party. He could call it SWAP (the Smile and Wave Party).
    Then National would have a credible partner to get them back into government.

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  42. liarbors a joke (1,069 comments) says:

    Key deserves to lose 2014. He hasn’t listened at all to his voting base. Screwed the National party so far to the left and basically given everyone the bird.

    Shearer is a buffoon, so what choice do we have come election year? Tweedle dum blue or Tweedle dee red?

    How very glum.

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  43. Manolo (13,514 comments) says:

    Labour and National are two sides of the same socialist coin. Little distinguishes Labour from Labour lite.

    Key’s performnace as PM has been an abject failure. He promised to change course from the previous nine years. He did not. He and his party reneged on election promises. On that basis, he deserves to be rolled out (which will not happen) or to lose the election.

    He promised change and delivered none. Key has been a big disappointment.

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  44. kiwigunner (222 comments) says:

    Will you ever change the poll on the left of this page past August when they started to really trend away from the Right?

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  45. ChardonnayGuy (1,183 comments) says:

    Er, far be it from me to comment about microparties, but aren’t the Conservatives polling within the margin of error?

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