The Scotland Independence Referendum

December 3rd, 2012 at 11:00 am by David Farrar

John Donnachie at The Press reports:

There are compelling arguments from both sides to why Scotland should remain or not stay in the United Kingdom. The re- establishment of a devolved Scottish Parliament in 1999 has been generally welcomed throughout the British Isles, and viewed as a progressive step towards a more autonomous Scottish state from within the United Kingdom. …

And yet, the move towards a Scottish state and break-up of the 305-year-old union appears an unlikely and forbidden scenario, given the current economic turmoil Britain is experiencing.

As Europe’s monetary system tethers on the brink of collapse, it seems going it alone is a downright absurdity that will bring irreversible financial hardship just as has happened to Scotland’s fellow Celtic neighbour, Ireland.

Opinion polls during October showed support stagnating for independence between 30 and 35 per cent. The golden summer of British Olympic success and the shared feel-good factor has been speculated as the reason for declining interest.

There were four polls in October. Support was at 28% in two of them, 29% in another and 37% in the fourth. Opposition was 55%, 53%, 52% and 45%. That is a big margin to over-turn.

Polls in England show more support for Scottish independence than in Scotland itself.

That’s fascinating, but not entirely surprising. A poll in early 2012 of English voters found 43% want Scottish independence and only 32% opposed. They know a lot of their money goes towards Scotland. Also 52% of English voters want the referendum as soon as possible, not in 2014.

Also 49% of English voters want an English Parliament with only 16% opposed.

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13 Responses to “The Scotland Independence Referendum”

  1. ChardonnayGuy (1,230 comments) says:

    According to the New Statesperson :) though, Ed Miliband’s Labour is about ten percentage points ahead of the Tories, and the Liberal Democrats did appallingly in a couple of recent UK byelections, indicating they’d end up toasted in the event of any forthcoming general election. Therefore, Scottish opinion may swing against a Yes/Independence vote during the referendum. On the other hand, Catalonia…

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  2. anonymouse (704 comments) says:

    I think the big thing that will ensure this vote doesn’t succeed was the EU president saying that an independent Scotland would have to apply to be a member.

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  3. James Stephenson (2,265 comments) says:

    @anonymouse – and that adoption of the Euro will be a condition of joining.

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  4. anonymouse (704 comments) says:

    @James, does that come with a side order of Greek Debt :)

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  5. kowtow (8,929 comments) says:

    One reason the English want
    Scottish independence because it would mean the English could elect their own parliament,which would be conservative dominated.As it stands Scotland sends droves of labourites to Wstminster to help fuck up what was once a great Union.
    Blair and Brown hailed from north of Hadrians wall.

    English voters are getting fed up of being treated like fools by the political establishment and so we see the rise of the UKIP.Hopefully thaqt will continue.

    NZ needs a party that represents the people’s interests rather than just the Establishment’s.Binding referenda.

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  6. Cato (1,095 comments) says:

    It would be great to have an English Parliament – permanent Tory government!

    The one proviso is that if an English Parliament is established, it should be seated at York and not Westminster.

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  7. dime (10,207 comments) says:

    The one thread where hammy can use the word tory in its proper sense and he doesnt turn up??

    It would be a great thing for england

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  8. Graeme Edgeler (2,972 comments) says:

    One reason the English want
    Scottish independence because it would mean the English could elect their own parliament,which would be conservative dominated.As it stands Scotland sends droves of labourites to Wstminster to help fuck up what was once a great Union.
    Blair and Brown hailed from north of Hadrians wall.

    I saw someone (maybe a comment on Kiwiblog?) who did the number on this, who found that the number of additional Labour MPs from Scotland would only have made a difference in one election in the last many many election. There was an effect, but it was rarely big enough to make a difference to the overall result.

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  9. James Stephenson (2,265 comments) says:

    @GE – correct, as far as it goes, Cameron would certainly have had an outright majority this time around and but Tony Blair would have been operating on a single-figure majority in his third term so it’s highly unlikely we’d ever had had to suffer the disgrace that was Gordon Brown’s occupancy of number 10.

    The thing that really pisses the English off, however, is that Scottish MP’s at Westminster get to vote on issues (such as Education) which are devolved to the Scottish Parliament.

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  10. Cato (1,095 comments) says:

    @JS – isn’t an inquiry into the West Lothian question due out shortly?

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  11. kowtow (8,929 comments) says:

    Re an English parliament without Scotland.

    http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2012/01/would-scottish-independence-kill-off-labour-in-westminster/

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  12. RRM (10,097 comments) says:

    Tommy: Doesn’t it make you proud to be Scottish?

    Mark “Rent-boy” Renton: It’s SHITE being Scottish! We’re the lowest of the low. The scum of the fucking Earth! The most wretched, miserable, servile, pathetic trash that was ever shat into civilization. Some hate the English. I don’t. They’re just wankers. We, on the other hand, are COLONIZED by wankers. Can’t even find a decent culture to be colonized BY. We’re ruled by effete arseholes. It’s a SHITE state of affairs to be in, Tommy, and ALL the fresh air in the world won’t make any fucking difference!

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  13. Gavfaemonty (61 comments) says:

    “They know a lot of their money goes towards Scotland. ”

    Behave, you’ve swallowed the English narrative hook, line, and sinker. Norway is rich; very, very rich. Scotland would be in a similar state if England hadn’t raped Scotland’s mineral wealth in a classic colonial play. (And Renton was right re colonisation.)

    I agree that there won’t be a ‘yes’ vote for a variety of reasons; the more interesting option would have been ‘devo max’ where things that are still England’s to decide would be repatriated inc. foreign policy, tax setting, and so on.

    Still…

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