Fairfax’s 2013 projections
January 5th, 2013 at 12:00 pm by David FarrarThe Fairfax gallery team have made their 2013 projections:
1. At an annual salary of almost $145,000 plus allowances, Brendan Horan will continue to believe he is needed in the House and will tough out the criticisms and stay on in Parliament – unless police intervene.
2. Official interest rates will end the year no higher than they started it at 2.5 per cent, and if the Reserve Bank moves at all it will be to cut the OCR.
3. David Shearer will win unanimous support for his leadership from his caucus in the February vote, and remain safe from any serious challenge throughout the year.
4. Aaron Gilmore will return to Parliament and be joined by a least one other replacement list MP – though Mr Gilmore will make no better an impression this year than first time around.
5. Arise Sir Lockwood Smith. The former Speaker will be knighted in the Queen’s Birthday honours.
6. Hekia Parata will remain in the Cabinet but lose the education portfolio.
7. Labour will rewrite its list selection rules to give the regions and the unions less power, but not without a major controversy.
8. National will fail to find a cross party “consensus” on changes to the MMP rules, but opposition parties will pledge to implement the main Electoral Commission recommendations if they win power.
9. The referendum opposing the sale of state assets will get the numbers and go ahead in October. But the part-sale of Mighty River Power will go ahead, after the Maori court challenge over water rights fails. The Government will also sell shares in Meridian and Genesis this year.
10. John Key will make international headlines again for a gaffe to rival the Beckham putdown, but he will resist the urge to become a fulltime talkback host.
11. Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples will bow to pressure and give up the co-leadership, opening the way for Te Ururoa Flavell. But Dr Sharples will not relinquish his portfolios.
12. Maurice Williamson and one other minister will announce that they are not standing for re-election in 2014.
13. A new Right-wing party will emerge, offering to fill the need for an ally for National. But National will be less than enthusiastic.
14. The Government will launch the year with a major economic policy promising to boost job numbers and make employment its priority.15. A minister will resign over allegations surrounding events that emerge from the past.
16. As a consolation for missing out on the Speakership, National list MP Tau Henare will be offered a diplomatic post in the Pacific.
17. The Green Party will not top 15 per cent in any major political poll in 2013.
18. Andrew Little and David Clark will be promoted to the Labour top 12 and Nanaia Mahuta will not hold the prime responsibility for education by year’s end.
19. Growth will fall short of the Treasury’s pick of 2.3 per cent in the year till March but the economic mandarins will be closer to the mark on unemployment, which will be near their 6.9 per cent forecast.
20. David Bain will be paid some compensation even though a second review will be more ambivalent about his innocence – but he will get less than $1 million.
No 13 could be interesting. Not sure about the unions having less power in Labour list ranking, as they just gave them increased power in leadership selections.
Related posts:
- 20 predictions for 2013
- Gilmore confirms return
- Small says Labour leadership challenge in February if Shearer flops at conference
- Views on 2013
January 5th, 2013 at 12:19 pm
15. A minister will resign over allegations surrounding events that emerge from the past.
This is too specific not to think they don’t already know who it is and what those allegations might be. Which if so means someone is playing politics with it. Which means those people playing those politics are deliberately allowing someone unfit for office to remain in office. Which goes against ethics and integrity and everything else these arseholes claim they believe in and live, in order that they be entrusted with their public “service.”
Sadly I’m not surprised, this happens all the time in politics not just here but everywhere. But it shouldn’t, and it’s a real shame that if and when this issue does get outed, that along with the guilty Minister, every single other person involved in the chain to cover it up, from journalists to politicians, don’t all get fired as well, preferably slung into jail as an abject lesson, and denied their pensions. None of that will happen, but all of it should.
Vote:January 5th, 2013 at 12:30 pm
Prediction 13 – highlights National’s dilemma. National can well do with a friendly right wing party which can attract votes from those who think National is too centre and cannot be bothered voting, or red-necks tempted to vote NZ First. However the party should not be too right wing as it could lose National some of the centre vote.
Vote:January 5th, 2013 at 12:37 pm
They’re hardly predictions – most of them are events already underway.
Vote:January 5th, 2013 at 12:53 pm
prediction 13 – please god let this happen
Vote:January 5th, 2013 at 12:54 pm
So take your pick.
Who will it be?
The Cabinet Portfolios Other responsibilities
1 Rt Hon John Key
Prime Minister
Minister of Tourism
Minister Responsible for Ministerial Services
Minister in Charge of the NZ Security Intelligence Service
Minister Responsible for the Government Communications Security Bureau
2 Hon Bill English
Deputy Prime Minister
Minister of Finance
3 Hon Gerry Brownlee
Minister for Canterbury Earthquake Recovery
Minister of Transport
Leader of the House
Minister Responsible for the Earthquake Commission
4 Hon Steven Joyce
Minister for Economic Development
Minister of Science and Innovation
Minister for Tertiary Education, Skills and Employment
Associate Minister of Finance
5 Hon Judith Collins
Minister of Justice
Minister for ACC
Minister for Ethnic Affairs
6 Hon Tony Ryall
Minister of Health
Minister for State Owned Enterprises
7 Hon Hekia Parata
Minister of Education
Minister of Pacific Island Affairs
8 Hon Christopher Finlayson
Attorney-General
Minister for Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations
Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage
Associate Minister of Māori Affairs
9 Hon Paula Bennett
Minister for Social Development
Minister of Youth Affairs
10 Hon David Carter
Minister for Primary Industries
Minister of Local Government
11 Hon Murray McCully
Minister of Foreign Affairs
Minister for Sport and Recreation
12 Hon Anne Tolley
Minister of Police
Minister of Corrections
Deputy Leader of the House
13 Hon Dr Jonathan Coleman
Minister of Defence
Minister of State Services
Associate Minister of Finance
14 Hon Tim Groser
Minister of Trade
Minister for Climate Change Issues
Associate Minister of Foreign Affairs
15 Hon Phil Heatley
Minister of Energy and Resources
Minister of Housing
16 Hon Kate Wilkinson
Minister of Conservation
Minister for Food Safety
Associate Minister of Immigration
17 Hon Nathan Guy
Minister of Immigration
Minister for Racing
Minister of Veterans’ Affairs
Associate Minister for Primary Industries
18 Hon Craig Foss
Minister of Commerce
Minister of Broadcasting
Associate Minister for ACC
Associate Minister of Education
19 Hon Amy Adams
Minister for the Environment
Minister for Communications and Information Technology
Associate Minister for Canterbury Earthquake Recovery
20 Hon Chris Tremain
Minister of Internal Affairs
Minister of Civil Defence
Associate Minister of Tourism
Ministers Outside Cabinet Portfolios Other responsibilities
21 Hon Maurice Williamson
Minister for Building and Construction
Minister of Customs
Minister for Land Information
Minister of Statistics
22 Hon Jo Goodhew
Minister for the Community and Voluntary Sector
Minister for Senior Citizens
Minister of Women’s Affairs
Associate Minister of Health
23 Hon Chester Borrows
Minister for Courts
Associate Minister of Justice
Associate Minister for Social Development
24 Hon Simon Bridges
Minister of Consumer Affairs
Associate Minister for Climate Change Issues
Associate Minister of Transport
Support Party Ministers Portfolios Other responsibilities
Hon Peter Dunne
Minister of Revenue
Associate Minister of Conservation
Associate Minister of Health
Hon John Banks
Minister for Regulatory Reform
Minister for Small Business
Associate Minister of Commerce
Associate Minister of Education
Hon Dr Pita Sharples
Minister of Maori Affairs
Associate Minister of Corrections
Associate Minister of Education
Hon Tariana Turia
Minister Responsible for Whanau Ora
Minister for Disability Issues
Associate Minister of Health
Associate Minister of Housing
Associate Minister for Social Development
Associate Minister for Tertiary Education, Skills and Employment
Penny of the funny hat will be picking John Banks.
Will very probably be right.
A long shot. Bill English. I know something you don’t.
Vote:January 5th, 2013 at 1:13 pm
Is it that he leaked Don Brash’s emails?
Vote:January 5th, 2013 at 1:15 pm
I hope, really hope, it’s Parata. Out of all the Ministers, she’s the one who really isn’t qualified even to be an MP, let alone a Minister at #7.
It’s not so much she’s totally incompetent, because some of the others aren’t much better, it’s that she’s a self-aggrandising bully and people with those traits shouldn’t ever be employed in anything let alone high office.
Vote:January 5th, 2013 at 1:23 pm
Little doubt about that. Past or Present membership of NZ First is not compatible with any concept of humility.
Vote:January 5th, 2013 at 2:43 pm
21. Fairfucked will continue its slide down the crapper.
Vote:January 5th, 2013 at 3:37 pm
Reid,
Vote:If all they have now is gossip, the fact they are saying nothing is actually a sign of integrity.
But statistics suggests this is a good prediction even if they have nothing to go on.
January 5th, 2013 at 10:11 pm
13. This is old news. That odious thug Ross Meurant is involved.
Vote:January 5th, 2013 at 10:16 pm
Nick: Meurant, really? Isn’t he making a zillion in the Ukraine or somewhere?
Vote:January 5th, 2013 at 10:30 pm
Here’s the post on the Focus Party – http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2012/12/focus_nz_party.html
(Focus Party – sounds like a shindig for Optometrists!)
Vote:January 6th, 2013 at 7:35 am
20. They are wrong about David Bain. Rodney has finally worked out that Binnie is a ninny. Ipredict is continuing to plummet.
Vote: