Fairfax’s 2013 projections

January 5th, 2013 at 12:00 pm by David Farrar

The gallery team have made their 2013 projections:

1. At an annual salary of almost $145,000 plus allowances, Brendan Horan will continue to believe he is needed in the House and will tough out the criticisms and stay on in Parliament – unless police intervene.

2. Official interest rates will end the year no higher than they started it at 2.5 per cent, and if the Reserve Bank moves at all it will be to cut the OCR.

3. David Shearer will win unanimous support for his leadership from his caucus in the February vote, and remain safe from any serious challenge throughout the year.

4. Aaron Gilmore will return to Parliament and be joined by a least one other replacement list MP – though Mr Gilmore will make no better an impression this year than first time around.

5. Arise Sir Lockwood Smith. The former Speaker will be knighted in the Queen’s Birthday honours.

6. Hekia Parata will remain in the Cabinet but lose the education portfolio.

7. Labour will rewrite its list selection rules to give the regions and the unions less power, but not without a major controversy.

8. National will fail to find a cross party “consensus” on changes to the MMP rules, but opposition parties will pledge to implement the main Electoral Commission recommendations if they win power.

9. The referendum opposing the sale of state assets will get the numbers and go ahead in October. But the part-sale of Mighty River Power will go ahead, after the Maori court challenge over water rights fails. The Government will also sell shares in Meridian and Genesis this year.

10. John Key will make international headlines again for a gaffe to rival the Beckham putdown, but he will resist the urge to become a fulltime talkback host.

11. Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples will bow to pressure and give up the co-leadership, opening the way for Te Ururoa Flavell. But Dr Sharples will not relinquish his portfolios.

12. Maurice Williamson and one other minister will announce that they are not standing for re-election in 2014.

13. A new Right-wing party will emerge, offering to fill the need for an ally for National. But National will be less than enthusiastic.

14. The Government will launch the year with a major economic policy promising to boost job numbers and make employment its priority.

15. A minister will resign over allegations surrounding events that emerge from the past.

16. As a consolation for missing out on the Speakership, National list MP Tau Henare will be offered a diplomatic post in the Pacific.

17. The Green Party will not top 15 per cent in any major political poll in 2013.

18. Andrew Little and David Clark will be promoted to the Labour top 12 and Nanaia Mahuta will not hold the prime responsibility for education by year’s end.

19. Growth will fall short of the Treasury’s pick of 2.3 per cent in the year till March but the economic mandarins will be closer to the mark on unemployment, which will be near their 6.9 per cent forecast.

20. David Bain will be paid some compensation even though a second review will be more ambivalent about his innocence – but he will get less than $1 million.

No 13 could be interesting. Not sure about the unions having less power in Labour list ranking, as they just gave them increased power in leadership selections.

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14 Responses to “Fairfax’s 2013 projections”

  1. Reid (16,468 comments) says:

    15. A minister will resign over allegations surrounding events that emerge from the past.

    This is too specific not to think they don’t already know who it is and what those allegations might be. Which if so means someone is playing politics with it. Which means those people playing those politics are deliberately allowing someone unfit for office to remain in office. Which goes against ethics and integrity and everything else these arseholes claim they believe in and live, in order that they be entrusted with their public “service.”

    Sadly I’m not surprised, this happens all the time in politics not just here but everywhere. But it shouldn’t, and it’s a real shame that if and when this issue does get outed, that along with the guilty Minister, every single other person involved in the chain to cover it up, from journalists to politicians, don’t all get fired as well, preferably slung into jail as an abject lesson, and denied their pensions. None of that will happen, but all of it should.

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  2. peterwn (3,273 comments) says:

    Prediction 13 – highlights National’s dilemma. National can well do with a friendly right wing party which can attract votes from those who think National is too centre and cannot be bothered voting, or red-necks tempted to vote NZ First. However the party should not be too right wing as it could lose National some of the centre vote.

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  3. Michael (909 comments) says:

    They’re hardly predictions – most of them are events already underway.

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  4. dime (9,972 comments) says:

    prediction 13 – please god let this happen

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  5. Viking2 (11,471 comments) says:

    So take your pick.
    Who will it be?

    The Cabinet Portfolios Other responsibilities
    1 Rt Hon John Key
    Prime Minister
    Minister of Tourism

    Minister Responsible for Ministerial Services
    Minister in Charge of the NZ Security Intelligence Service
    Minister Responsible for the Government Communications Security Bureau

    2 Hon Bill English
    Deputy Prime Minister
    Minister of Finance

    3 Hon Gerry Brownlee
    Minister for Canterbury Earthquake Recovery
    Minister of Transport

    Leader of the House
    Minister Responsible for the Earthquake Commission

    4 Hon Steven Joyce
    Minister for Economic Development
    Minister of Science and Innovation
    Minister for Tertiary Education, Skills and Employment

    Associate Minister of Finance

    5 Hon Judith Collins
    Minister of Justice
    Minister for ACC
    Minister for Ethnic Affairs

    6 Hon Tony Ryall
    Minister of Health
    Minister for State Owned Enterprises

    7 Hon Hekia Parata
    Minister of Education
    Minister of Pacific Island Affairs

    8 Hon Christopher Finlayson

    Attorney-General
    Minister for Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations
    Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage

    Associate Minister of Māori Affairs

    9 Hon Paula Bennett
    Minister for Social Development
    Minister of Youth Affairs

    10 Hon David Carter
    Minister for Primary Industries
    Minister of Local Government

    11 Hon Murray McCully
    Minister of Foreign Affairs
    Minister for Sport and Recreation

    12 Hon Anne Tolley
    Minister of Police
    Minister of Corrections

    Deputy Leader of the House

    13 Hon Dr Jonathan Coleman
    Minister of Defence
    Minister of State Services

    Associate Minister of Finance

    14 Hon Tim Groser
    Minister of Trade
    Minister for Climate Change Issues

    Associate Minister of Foreign Affairs

    15 Hon Phil Heatley
    Minister of Energy and Resources
    Minister of Housing

    16 Hon Kate Wilkinson
    Minister of Conservation
    Minister for Food Safety

    Associate Minister of Immigration

    17 Hon Nathan Guy
    Minister of Immigration
    Minister for Racing
    Minister of Veterans’ Affairs

    Associate Minister for Primary Industries

    18 Hon Craig Foss
    Minister of Commerce
    Minister of Broadcasting

    Associate Minister for ACC
    Associate Minister of Education
    19 Hon Amy Adams

    Minister for the Environment
    Minister for Communications and Information Technology

    Associate Minister for Canterbury Earthquake Recovery

    20 Hon Chris Tremain
    Minister of Internal Affairs
    Minister of Civil Defence

    Associate Minister of Tourism
    Ministers Outside Cabinet Portfolios Other responsibilities

    21 Hon Maurice Williamson
    Minister for Building and Construction
    Minister of Customs
    Minister for Land Information
    Minister of Statistics

    22 Hon Jo Goodhew
    Minister for the Community and Voluntary Sector
    Minister for Senior Citizens
    Minister of Women’s Affairs

    Associate Minister of Health

    23 Hon Chester Borrows
    Minister for Courts

    Associate Minister of Justice
    Associate Minister for Social Development

    24 Hon Simon Bridges
    Minister of Consumer Affairs

    Associate Minister for Climate Change Issues
    Associate Minister of Transport

    Support Party Ministers Portfolios Other responsibilities

    Hon Peter Dunne
    Minister of Revenue

    Associate Minister of Conservation
    Associate Minister of Health

    Hon John Banks
    Minister for Regulatory Reform
    Minister for Small Business

    Associate Minister of Commerce
    Associate Minister of Education

    Hon Dr Pita Sharples
    Minister of Maori Affairs

    Associate Minister of Corrections
    Associate Minister of Education
    Hon Tariana Turia
    Minister Responsible for Whanau Ora
    Minister for Disability Issues

    Associate Minister of Health
    Associate Minister of Housing
    Associate Minister for Social Development
    Associate Minister for Tertiary Education, Skills and Employment

    Penny of the funny hat will be picking John Banks.
    Will very probably be right.

    A long shot. Bill English. I know something you don’t. :lol:

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  6. Manolo (13,780 comments) says:

    A long shot. Bill English. I know something you don’t.

    Is it that he leaked Don Brash’s emails?

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  7. Reid (16,468 comments) says:

    I hope, really hope, it’s Parata. Out of all the Ministers, she’s the one who really isn’t qualified even to be an MP, let alone a Minister at #7.

    It’s not so much she’s totally incompetent, because some of the others aren’t much better, it’s that she’s a self-aggrandising bully and people with those traits shouldn’t ever be employed in anything let alone high office.

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  8. Rodders (1,755 comments) says:

    1.Brendan Horan will continue to believe he is needed in the House and will tough out the criticisms and stay on in Parliament

    Little doubt about that. Past or Present membership of NZ First is not compatible with any concept of humility.

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  9. thedavincimode (6,759 comments) says:

    21. Fairfucked will continue its slide down the crapper.

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  10. s.russell (1,642 comments) says:

    Reid,
    If all they have now is gossip, the fact they are saying nothing is actually a sign of integrity.
    But statistics suggests this is a good prediction even if they have nothing to go on.

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  11. Nick K (1,244 comments) says:

    13. This is old news. That odious thug Ross Meurant is involved.

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  12. David Garrett (7,286 comments) says:

    Nick: Meurant, really? Isn’t he making a zillion in the Ukraine or somewhere?

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  13. Rodders (1,755 comments) says:

    Here’s the post on the Focus Party – http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2012/12/focus_nz_party.html

    (Focus Party – sounds like a shindig for Optometrists!)

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  14. Chuck Bird (4,884 comments) says:

    20. They are wrong about David Bain. Rodney has finally worked out that Binnie is a ninny. Ipredict is continuing to plummet.

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