A Labour insider on a coalition with NZ First

February 22nd, 2013 at 10:00 am by David Farrar

Party official “Mickey Savage” blogs:

The Green’s increase in support is significant and is having a fundamental effect on Labour.  Many of those changing their allegiance are activists and/or well resourced, the sorts of people who you want not only as voters but also as supporters and members.

 To get over the line Labour/Greens/Mana will need to further improve their collective support.  The only alternative is to countenance a coalition with New Zealand First.
Just imagine – a Labour/Green/Mana/NZ First coalition.
The events of the past few months ought to have put Labour and the Greens completely off such a proposition.  New Zealand First has been conclusively shown, if conclusive proof had ever been required, to be a one man band, a personality cult based around the prodigious personality that is Winston Peters.  All the other MPs that are there are just there for padding.
They still haven’t been able to elect a Deputy Leader after 15 months in Parliament!

How could a Labour Green Coalition include New Zealand First?  The simple answer is that it could not.  It would be inherently unstable, its policy goals would be shackled by the strange world view NZF has about issues such as climate change.  The desire to create a more tolerant and ethically diverse New Zealand would be an anathema to Peters’ mob.

 
That is why Labour and/or the Greens need to push on and more support.  The alternative is not worth contemplating.
I’ll blog in more detail on this, but I am of the view that if NZ First does hold the balance of power, National should go into opposition and let David Shearer try to run a Labour-Green-Mana-NZ First Government. National would then get over 50% at the next election!
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67 Responses to “A Labour insider on a coalition with NZ First”

  1. Barnsley Bill (983 comments) says:

    ” ethically diverse”

    Well that would be a given.

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  2. Cunningham (844 comments) says:

    ‘National would then get over 50% at the next election!’ but what kind of country would we have after 3 years of those parties in charge???

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  3. Griff (7,683 comments) says:

    Greens and labor and Winston first going into coalition
    Time to stock up on virtual popcorn .
    Having manaless in the mix :lol:
    It would last only days without a spectacular melt down e.

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  4. bringbackdemocracy (427 comments) says:

    There is no guarantee that NZ First will return to parliament especially with the Conservatives taking away their votes.
    Fairfax polls
    Date NZ First Conservatives
    July 2012 3.6% 0.7%
    Dec 2012 3.8% 1.4%
    Feb 2013 2.8% 1.6%

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  5. Nick K (1,243 comments) says:

    Yes. The CONservatives will poll 25% at the next election. Colin Craig has paid for a poll that says so.

    Meanwhile back on planet earth, anyone who understands politics and elections knows they won’t be anywhere near parliament.

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  6. Mark (1,488 comments) says:

    Forget Hone’s party being in the mix. He is simply too toxic for even the left to be dumb enough to bring into the mix. But keep an eye on Peter Dunne, New Zealand’s most flexible political animal.

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  7. krazykiwi (9,186 comments) says:

    [an alliance with NZ First] would be inherently unstable

    Labour starts by being unstable, and gets worse with the addition of any coalition partner(s)

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  8. davidp (3,581 comments) says:

    >but I am of the view that if NZ First does hold the balance of power, National should go into opposition and let David Shearer try to run a Labour-Green-Mana-NZ First Government. National would then get over 50% at the next election!

    I definitely agree. Especially since the alternative is a dysfunctional National-NZ First coalition that implodes and National wins 30% at the next election.

    A few things to consider:

    NZ First making the threshold or not has a big impact on the outcome in 2014. If they win 4.9% then I suspect National governs alone due to the wasted left wing vote.

    National has to talk about the potential for a Labour-Green-NZ First-Mana coalition of weirdos and losers as often as possible. That’ll scare a solid National majority out of voters.

    We’ve seen a Labor-Green coalition in Australia and they’re about to be wiped out. People need to know about this.

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  9. mickysavage (786 comments) says:

    DPF I am not an “official” of the Labour Party apart from doing the minutes of the Titirangi Branch of the party for its AGM each year. I am but a grassroots activist.

    I would not even describe myself as an insider.

    It will be interesting to see which of the major parties announces first that they are willing to go into coalition with NZ First. And I see that John Key has not ruled this out despite his “principled” stand last election although he was at the time happy to go into coalition with ACT despite its problems with birth certificates, female politicians, the perks of office and the like.

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  10. Jaffa (94 comments) says:

    Aaaah! ……….MMP!

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  11. Pete George (23,559 comments) says:

    Mark, I’d be surprised if Dunne/UF could go with current Labour unless there’s a significant change in direction and mode of operation, and that’s without taking in to account Labour being dragged further left by a hefty Green component.

    Thats why building UF up by a seat or two makes sense, to provide a competitive alternative to Labour-Green-NZF.

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  12. SPC (5,619 comments) says:

    Pete, National voters only switch to United when they know they are going to lose – as in 2002.

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  13. Nick K (1,243 comments) says:

    It will be interesting to see which of the major parties announces first that they are willing to go into coalition with NZ First. And I see that John Key has not ruled this out despite his “principled” stand last election although he was at the time happy to go into coalition with ACT despite its problems with birth certificates, female politicians, the perks of office and the like.

    Why would anyone go into coalition with Labour, considering their internal squabbles; their corrupt ex MPs (Phillip Field); their dodgy current MPs (Shane Jones); their mumbling leader and other problems such as……………Trevor Mallard?

    You’d be nuts to go anywhere near them. Mind you the Greens are nuts.

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  14. BeaB (2,123 comments) says:

    Solid Energy is but the first of financial debacles caused partly by caving into loony Green pressure and riding off madly into biofuels and other red herrings.
    I am sure we are going to look back at the billions wasted here and abroad on wind farms, carbon taxes, Green technology and wonder why we periodically get gripped by these lunacies.
    It’s time the Greens took their share of the blame and were held accountable for their daft policies that have cost us a fortune and made no difference to our quality of life or jobs or prosperity.
    I am all for doing our best for the environment so we can all thrive in it but not for these massively wasteful and damaging gimmicks.

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  15. krazykiwi (9,186 comments) says:

    Pete, as a commenter once noted, election night will find Dunne hanging around in the car park, wondering who will be taking him home. He has, more than most, demonstrated a willingness to flap about in the electoral breeze to secure his baubles.

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  16. GPT1 (2,121 comments) says:

    It took National the best part of a decade to recover from going into coalition with Winston in 1996. Let Labour drink from that poisoned chalice.

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  17. Ross12 (1,425 comments) says:

    Nick K — I think you have misunderstood bringbackdemocracy’s point. I think he is just saying the Conservative Party is undermining NZ First so NZ First probably won’t make it across the line. I don’t think he is saying the Conservatives will get into Parliament by getting over 5 % ( although he might hope for it).

    re the Labour / Green — look at what is happening in Australia with their Labor/ Green coalition. There will be a blow up there for sure ( before or after their election ). Similar rumblings are starting here. Whether it goes all the way is another matter.

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  18. Colville (2,268 comments) says:

    The conservatives got 3%? last election after a few months in existence. I am sure they can do it again. Problem is they are all pretty much wasted nat votes

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  19. Nick K (1,243 comments) says:

    Yep, I’m with you Ross12.

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  20. David Garrett (7,271 comments) says:

    Why does “Mickey Savage” bother with the ridiculous disguise – and yes, it must be admitted I know something about disguises, as he snidely points out – when everyone knows he is Greg Presland, a lawyer from West Auckland who has his own …difficulties?

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  21. SPC (5,619 comments) says:

    BeaB, the people of Beijing sympathise with your concerns – with every breath they take.

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  22. Peter (1,712 comments) says:

    But Dunne isn’t being anything other than Dunne – he sits in the centre, which National and Labour also try to do, so of course he can go with either one. There isn’t much difference.

    If the only choice is government with NZFirst then National should definitely go into opposition. The result will be a bumbling left-wing train wreck which will destroy the credibility of many of the parties within it for the next decade.

    Long game.

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  23. KevinH (1,227 comments) says:

    Winston will want Foreign Affairs and Deputy Prime Minister, the Greens will want Conservation, Finance and Deputy, Hone will want Maori Affairs and Welfare and to be in cabinet. Whatever the mix no doubt it will be fraught with bitter rivalries, back stabbing and outright hostility. Therefore the left will struggle to form a coalition. Further to that NZ First will struggle to make the cut unless they clean up their errant MP situation.
    I’m predicting the Nats will pull it off again with an improved majority.

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  24. David Garrett (7,271 comments) says:

    Actually talking of the far left and disguises…the real power always lies with someone other than the guy with the title…In the Soviet Union, the President was always someone who they wheeled out for ceremonial occaisions, but had no real power…that resided with a General Secretary – perhaps nominally “someone who takes the minutes at the AGM” a la Presland? In fact the Soviets were even more…ah…disguised. For a long time the real power in the Politburo was held by one Mikhail Suslov, who held some innocuous title, but who in fact determined who was going to be running the show pre Gorbachev.

    Come forward 50 years to the Labour Party in NZ…does anyone really believe Shearer is actually in charge? As Key proved recently with unheralded cabinet demotions, he is, in fact and not just name, the PRIME Minister…

    Do tell us why the left runs like that Greg…you must be able to find it in the Minutes of old meetings somewhere…

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  25. Harriet (4,969 comments) says:

    “…does anyone really believe Shearer is actually in charge? As Key proved recently with unheralded cabinet demotions, he is, in fact and not just name, the PRIME Minister…’

    Well the Faceless Men arn’t no longer in charge of NZ Labour – no man is ! :cool:

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  26. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    greg you stand for every elected position that is available in west auckland and some times it seems the entire southern hemisphere so that makes you at the least a good little foot soldier desperately trying to get as much of the public tit in your mouth as possible

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  27. barry (1,317 comments) says:

    Mickysavage – I wont outright label you a liar – but to say that all you do are the annual minutes of the Titirangi branch is stretching things a bit. Maybe thats because there are none so blind as those who dont want to see…..

    All politicians want to be on the treasury benches – I dont think you appreciate that – yes even losers like Grant Robertson and people from the greens want to be there.

    Labour will do a deal with the devil if thats what it takes to get onto the treasury benches. And Winston and Hone and the greens will do exactly the same. All this belief that their principles will over-ride is just emotional clap-trap. Theyll suck up to anybody to get a limo and the big salary.

    The only nigger in the wood pile are the conservatives – who I think will do a lot better that everyone currently thinks. But it maybe that they and NZ first just take votes from each other.

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  28. bringbackdemocracy (427 comments) says:

    If the Conservatives had won an electorate seat at the last election they would have 3 seats in parliament. National,Labour and the Greens would each have one less.
    If the Conservatives were likely to win an electorate seat in 2014 then they would become a better option for socially conservative voters than NZ First as they would be more likely to enter parliament.
    It would therefore be beneficial for National’s success and NZ Firsts demise for the Conservatives to win an electorate seat.

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  29. Chuck Bird (4,880 comments) says:

    “But it maybe that they and NZ first just take votes from each other.”

    Why is it that NZF is the only party strongly opposed to lowering the threshold to 4%?

    I would guess that is because they are worried that the Conservative Party could take their vote.

    If National were smart they would drop it to 4% as they would not only have a super majority but it is what the Electoral Commission recommended.

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  30. Mark (1,488 comments) says:

    PG perhaps you underestimate the political chameleon that Peter Dunne has become over the years.

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  31. Manolo (13,746 comments) says:

    Problem is they are all pretty much wasted nat votes

    A vote for Smile-and-wave is also a wasted vote, isn’t it?

    P.G., do not fear. Your whorish “leader” will peddle his tired old body to the highest bidder come election time.

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  32. Pete George (23,559 comments) says:

    Mark – his and the UF position at the last election was unequivocably not to enter a coalition with Labour, and I had no reason to doubt that, I campaigned on that. I’d be surpised if at thsi stage the position would be any different, in my opinion Labour are currently less worthy and deserving of coalition than then.

    Manolo – there’s no evidence to support that view.

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  33. odysseus (26 comments) says:

    “Just imagine – a Labour/Green/Mana/NZ First coalition.”
    Just imagine a Nat / Maori / United / Act coalition…oh wait…

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  34. La Grand Fromage (145 comments) says:

    The only thing Mickey Savage is “inside” is David Cunliffes anal cavity.

    All this talk of losing members/activists from Labour to the Greens is just a case of the truly mentally retarded finding their proper home.

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  35. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (888 comments) says:

    Tories – Listen to me carefully. The losers – Labour & Green once they know that they have a realistic chance of forming a government, they will crawl on the floor and worship at the feet of Winnie. Greens are power hungry and Norman is itching to lay his hands on tax money to splurge on lunatic Green campaigns and crazy eco taxes that will ruin NZ. So once Winnie passes the 5% threshold National is history.

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  36. mickysavage (786 comments) says:

    @Barry 12:49 strange you should make a claim obviously without proof. The only officer’s position I currently hold is that of branch secretary. I am involved in different bodies but that does not make me an officer. DPF described me as a “Labour Party Official” suggesting some seniority and I was merely putting that description in context.

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  37. David Garrett (7,271 comments) says:

    Ah there you are Presland..so do tell us why you maintain the fiction…when you were “outed” almost as long ago as I was….

    do you really believe you have any of the qualities of the leader of the First Labour Government?

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  38. Pete George (23,559 comments) says:

    Greg – what’s your opinion on Chris trotter’s statement?

    I ask myself: “With Champagne Charlie gone, can the talented Mr Cunliffe be far behind?”

    And anyone else?

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  39. tvb (4,416 comments) says:

    If Winston holds the balance the John Key has a duty to do his best to form a Government. Simply walking off and going into opposition is irresponsible to all those thousands of people who want a National Government.

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  40. Nick K (1,243 comments) says:

    There is no way while all of our collective ars*s point to the ground that Winston or his party will ever be in any government. He is a dipshit bigoted liar, but he ain’t stupid.

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  41. mickysavage (786 comments) says:

    @DG. I actually outed myself (http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-11102010/#comment-257649) although people had accurately guessed who I was.

    I have used the name for 5 years now and after creating an online persona and putting so much into it I wanted to keep it.

    And no the real MJS is way more talented and intelligent than I could ever hope to be.

    @PG. DC is really enjoying his time being the MP for New Lynn and is working on some long term local campaigns. He is going nowhere.

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  42. thedavincimode (6,759 comments) says:

    He is going nowhere.

    Care to re-phrase that?

    So Micky, all this local work – does it include practising his bro-speak for the next campaign?

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  43. David Garrett (7,271 comments) says:

    “really enjoying…being the MP for New Lynn…” Didn’t Peters always used to stir the pot by saying he was “happy to be the member for Tauranga”?

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  44. ChardonnayGuy (1,206 comments) says:

    Let’s take the other tack. Could National work with New Zealand First *if* it survives past the next general election? And let’s also recall that the Owen Glenn donations saga last time round for Labour may have soured them on including Winston just as much as the abortive National/NZF coalition (1996-1998) did for your side of politics. All of which presupposes that (i) Labour’s recovery may be adversely affecting NZF’s protest vote share and (ii) as one of your other repliers acknowledged, NZF and the Cons may be competing for the neanderthal social conservative vote, cancelling each other out.
    Unfortunately, I have a horrible feeling that (iii) JT may have an almighty temper tantrum if he doesn’t get Waitakere and head Winstonwards, to become the annointed one’s successor.

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  45. thedavincimode (6,759 comments) says:

    CG

    Do you think that’s likely? If a fair chunk of Winston’s support derives from the greedy wrinklies who swoon over his Uncle Tom routine, it’s hard to see JT retaining it.

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  46. iMP (2,384 comments) says:

    The MMP maths clearly shows that National should, and probably will, offer the Conservative party a retiring Nat’s safe seat, as they’ve done for UF and ACT since MMP began. Consv.s have held stable as the 5th ranked party since the election and this is still their first ‘term.’

    Winston will be 70 at the next election, a totally spent force, and one who wants the family silver even to contemplate a Coalition. So, it’s time for National to look elsewhere, and with disaffected Nats swelling the ranks of this new party, the choice is obvious. Q is, would Consv. accept an accommodation?

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  47. Pete George (23,559 comments) says:

    DC is really enjoying his time being the MP for New Lynn and is working on some long term local campaigns. He is going nowhere.

    I’ve got no reason to doubt that, in fact I’ve heard the same from a reliable source.

    This is good for Labour. Despite all the talk of internal divisions – and there’s some validity to that – Labour badly needs to retain MPs of Cunliffe’s ability and experience (like hinm or not it’s hard to see a more valuable MP for Labour at the moment if caucus is able to work together on a common cause).

    The irony is that Labour without Shearer would be a party with a different leader, but Labour without Cunliffe would be severely weakened.

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  48. ChardonnayGuy (1,206 comments) says:

    Unfortunately, if National is desperate enough to pursue the Conservative Party, then it will face the consequences- namely, the electoral unpopularity of religious social conservatism in New Zealand. Remember 1987, 1996 and 2005?

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  49. ChardonnayGuy (1,206 comments) says:

    Added to which, the Cons are decidedly unfriendly toward ACT and United Future. Sectarianism much?

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  50. duggledog (1,555 comments) says:

    Yes I’ve always thought that DPF. Indeed I thought that the Nats should have stood down and let Labour take a bath in what was clearly coming prior to Key’s inaugural term.

    And I agree – National needs to run an advertisement as soon as they hit the hustings, compiling a four shot / box sequence of Shearer, Winston, Hone and Turei rabbiting on about whatever and then replace that with Key speaking clearly on his own. And repeat.

    That might get through. If they do stand aside for a Grand Coalition of that lot, then it would be six months before the whole thing implodes, and we might learn something.

    Cue another three terms in Government with no need for coalition partners

    However it’ll never happen. I think National will do whatever it takes to stop the madness that will surely be a Labour / Green etc coalition even if it means having to deal with the boozer. The left right battle is always only about stopping the other getting the treasury benches. Everything they have worked for over the two terms will be gone and they will simply have to start all over again when the cheque book has been exhausted by the left. It’s called responsibility. God it must get boring.

    Having said that I wish National had been more proactive. Personally I expected them to stop this bat shit crazy habit of flushing money down the toilet but I guess all governments are reactive not proactive. If they’d done what needed to be done many would have gone to the wall. Didn’t stop Lange & Douglas though

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  51. Johnboy (16,516 comments) says:

    Richard Prosser as Minister of Ethnic Affairs in the next coalition government.

    Now that would be fun! :)

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  52. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    What I’m really interested in Greg is how many councils, boards, water boards, school boards of trustees and local dart club committees you will be standing for this local body time, I believe it was five last time but there must be a couple of extra wards you can try for this time, I am picking seven.

    Just think of all those mileage claims and committee fees you will rake in, of course all that is just something that comes along as small recompense when you are out there doing all that good in the community!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  53. Letterman (184 comments) says:

    David Garrett: just read this post, and at 11.53am you refer to “Mickey Savage” aka Greg Presland having some “difficulties”. Would it be impolite of me to ask you to clarify what you mean by “difficulties”?

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  54. mickysavage (786 comments) says:

    @Pauleastbay I have stood for public office three times:

    1. 2001 for Waitakere City Council
    2. 2004 for Waitakere City Council
    3. 2010 for Waitakere Ranges Local Board

    I am pretty sure that I have claimed nothing for mileage this term.

    Your claim about me standing for 5 positions last time is interesting. What positions were they?

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  55. Johnboy (16,516 comments) says:

    How many times did you get voted in then Greggie? :)

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  56. mickysavage (786 comments) says:

    @Johnboy

    Two out of three times and I am painfully aware about what happened the third time.

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  57. Johnboy (16,516 comments) says:

    Look on the bright side old chap.

    You’ve done much better than our resident politico’s PG and Penny Dull! :)

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  58. Redbaiter (8,801 comments) says:

    David Garrett: just read this post, and at 11.53am you refer to “Mickey Savage” aka Greg Presland having some “difficulties”. Would it be impolite of me to ask you to clarify what you mean by “difficulties”?

    How about we just deal with Micky’s arguments (such as they are), and leave DG’s snide and cowardly leftist style personal references out of it?

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  59. joana (1,983 comments) says:

    A lot of worried Nats on here..If Key had delivered on half his promises you would not be such a worried bunch now..Today , he is busy trying to distance himself from all the job losses. Where are the 170,000 jobs he promised?

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  60. Rodders (1,755 comments) says:

    Where are the 170,000 jobs he promised?

    They must have gone the same way as Sanpaku.

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  61. Redbaiter (8,801 comments) says:

    Joana, there is no escape from this nightmare.

    We are in the grip of a coalition of socialists in parliament and they are, because of their own vapid cowardice, in turn in the grip of a legion of faceless publicly funded bureaucrats.

    Not one in this socially destructive coalition will do what needs to be done (stop spending money they don’t have) because of the old adage that turkey’s don’t vote for thanksgiving.

    They won’t stop the over spending because if they do, there’s no way they can make a living. So they keep thieving from us, and they keep us on a headlong course to destruction and social disintegration (a la Greece) because they can, and because they are all selfish self interested swine who would rather the country go to ruin entirely than that they actually get off their arses and produce something.

    We can bitch and moan about it on here, but nothing is going to change until we actually rebel and refuse to fund their banditry any longer (unlikely) or the country goes broke.

    Parliament is full of cowards and our bureaucracy is full of thieves.

    Such is the state of affairs the Progressives have brought upon us.

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  62. Johnboy (16,516 comments) says:

    So when Shearer/Norman/Peters/Harawera take up the reins of power in 2014 you cannot see any bright spot on the horizon then Red?

    Personally, I’m quite keen to see what portfolio Richard Prosser gets.

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  63. pq (728 comments) says:

    yawn, NZ First will be back with 7%. add figures now

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  64. Anthony (796 comments) says:

    What happens if no party has an outright majority and no one wants to go with NZ First – who gets to form the government?

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  65. David Garrett (7,271 comments) says:

    I’m a “leftist” !! Increase the dose Russell, and make an appointment with your Doctor first thing Monday.

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  66. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    greg acting chair of some rate payers association among of others from a goggle search you are a, professional little.committee man or professional busy body. how many ward and licensing trusts and school board s are you standing for this local body time I betry you your name well appear on several ballot papers for different positions like it did last time

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  67. ChardonnayGuy (1,206 comments) says:

    DVM: Apparently, according to JT, New Zealand First was his first choice anyway. Given the man’s impeccably crap sense of collegiality and party discipline, I wouldn’t be surprised if he wakajumped across the House in the general direction of Winston.

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