So my prediction is a Grand Coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD.

barry (1,145) Says:
February 1st, 2013 at 10:08 am
A green government in germany – or any where overseas – would be good – it would show the stupidity of their crazy ideas to tax us back into the caves.

Very funny, given that the tax regime in Germany that CDU/FDP have would make a Greenie here blush.

… So far, she has governed and campaigned with a style that German boffins call “asymmetric demobilisation,” meaning that she has tactically stolen issues from the centre-left opposition by enacting them pre-emptively or signalling that she might.

This is not how the National party are governing though. They have dusted off Labours policies … from 1984.
The results of which we are seeing with
– record numbers of people fleeing New Zealand (180,000, the main reason for working is lack of work)
– record unemployment (7.3% – and you can add most of the folks that have led to that number)
– public debt approaching 40% of GDP (was low 20′s when the reins were handed over in 2008)
– stagnating or falling wages.
– increase of GST, to give a real kick in the knees to those who are now earning less, or have lost their jobs and are relying on the dole to keep afloat while they look for jobs (or pack up their stuff to leave for Australia)
– Causing serious damage to our 100% pure brand, upon which our entire tourism industry relies.

This is in stark contrast to Angela Merkel who has governed with intelligence and prudence leading to positive outcomes; falling unemployment, reduction of public debt, rising wages and standard of living.

Credit should be given however to National for implemeting the Greens Heatsmart policy, the success of which Phil Heatley waxes lyrical about here: http://www.parliament.nz/en-NZ/PB/Business/QOA/8/2/2/50HansQ_20121129_00000007-7-Warm-Up-New-Zealand-Heat-Smart-Number.htm

If the National party loses the next election it is because of the following reasons;
– slavish adherence to ideological policies (and willfully ignoring, or suppressing evidence which shows the flaws in said policies)
– gross incompetence across a number of ministries
– Epsom have finally had enough of John Banks. When I returned to New Zealand a few years ago, I was shocked that my fellow Aucklanders had voted this incompetent in again, after the vandalism he had inflicted on Auckland CBD in his first term as Mayor.
– The Maori Party losing its base – largely because of their support for this government
– United Future finally past its used by date – Though I wouldn’t be surprised if Peter Dunne somehow survives

The only thing standing in the way of a National Party defeat in the next election …is Labour

Possibly, as there have been German state governments that have consisted of CDU/Green coalitions

I believe only one was on state level, in Hamburg 2008-10 until the Greens left.
Everything else was only on council level.

It is quite possible that it may happen on federal elvel, but it probably would be the “last cab of the rank”

The major differnce between the Greens in Germany and the Greens in NZ is that the Greens had the opportunity to grow and learn what being in government means in the councils and more importantly in the state governments.

They had to shed a lot of their more radical positions, a process which nearly tore the party apart.

If the Greens ever make it into a government here, it will be a very hard lesson to learn. In order to get some of your policies through you have to be able to compromise and swallow a few dead rats.

It will be interesting to see what happens here in NZ when green idealism meets realpolitik head-on.

So far, she has governed and campaigned with a style that German boffins call “asymmetric demobilisation,” meaning that she has tactically stolen issues from the centre-left opposition by enacting them pre-emptively or signalling that she might.

In other words, hoodwinking the public just long enough to secure a few extra votes. No principles, just platitudes guided by focus groups. No wonder politicians are so distrusted.