General Debate 21 February 2013

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Azeraph

Weihana (2,873) Says:
February 21st, 2013 at 4:39 pm

Intel has been stalled for the last two years Weihana, Moore’s law has plateaued, so far they have been stuck in the “I” series and just making them smaller. I think the next series is a 14 nm chip. AMD is the only one that tried to innovate with a new design but it was put out with the idea that programming will go parallel, well in some ways it has yet the majority is still single thread.

Their not getting faster, just smaller with the illusion of being fast. There is the spin machines but even they are new kids on the block and no one can afford one of those babies.
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February 21, 2013 5:02pm
Ryan Sproull

His success may be measured by the fact that 1 in 20 male homosexuals in New Zealand is now infected
with aids. ( i refrained from using the term ‘riddled’ to avoid causeing offence to any of the poor sods who are now carriers.)

180 new cases a year, including heterosexual Kiwis. 180 cases a year since 1985 would make 4,860 cases, including heterosexuals, assuming none had died. 4,860 times 20 is 97,200.

Even if every case was gay, you really think only 2.5% of the population of New Zealand is gay?
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February 21, 2013 5:10pm
joana

Harriet,
I think PG is a closet muslim like Hillary Clinton , Prince Charles etc Hilary Clinton has a muslim girlfriend who calls all the shots..the scary thing is many Americans seem to like Clinton.
Tim Barnett immigrated to NZ partly on the strength of his Anglican b/friends position in CHCH..They parted , then he married a Maori guy in a civil union..I think he worked for the UN after he left NZ..must be a good mate of Helen’s. He was really prissy before he left about not getting to be Mayor of CHCH.
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February 21, 2013 5:12pm
Kea

“I would much rather explore your conspiracy theory”

Griff, last time I checked it was you claiming the following:

1. BIG OIL & the “Carbon Industry” [chuckle] are conducting a dangerous global “experiment”.

2. Evil BIG business is paying scientists to spread misinformation about the terrible truth.

3. Life as we know it is about to end, unless we” believe” in AGW.

4. People who tell the truth, have been “got to” by BIG OIL.

Yet you call those of us who observe the total lack of climate change and comment upon it “nutters, fuckwits, conspirawackies, ” and so on.

You have lost yourself. Clearly.
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February 21, 2013 5:43pm
Kea

Weihana told the follow lies:

Solar will get cheaper because of improvements in efficiency and decreases in cost. This has been happening for 30 years and it has been happening at an exponential rate.

This is where we are at after your claimed 30 years of exponential growth:

“Industrial Policy: Another stimulus-backed solar panel maker, one the president touted in a weekly radio address, is filing for bankruptcy. The administration’s green-energy efforts continue to grow a deeper shade of red.
After receiving some $70 million in federal loans, Abound Solar, a Colorado-based firm that was developing thin-film solar panels, has announced it will follow an earlier Obama administration green energy failure, Solyndra, into bankruptcy.”

Even with BILLIONS of dollars of tax payers money thrown at them, solar power companies are going broke. You must really think people are stupid to believe your nonsense claim. A few seconds of “google” searching will show you up.
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February 21, 2013 5:56pm
Kea

Energy News

CHINA & INDIA ARE BUILDING 4 NEW COAL POWER PLANTS – EVERY WEEK

Date: 14/11/12Peter Galuszka, The New York Times

Global demand for coal is expected to grow to 8.9 billion tons by 2016 from 7.9 billion tons this year. China is expected to add about 160 new coal-fired plants to the 620 operating now, within four years. During that period, India will add more than 46 plants.

I wonder why they don’t use that cheap and wonderful solar power Weihana ~~lied~~ talked about ? Maybe they don’t have the technology… well think again hippies:

China’s solar module manufacturing capacity (supply) has exploded following the 2008 global financial crisis. During the ensuing economic difficulties, the Chinese government targeted the solar panel manufacturing industry as part of its stimulus. At first glance, the policy was perfect. Demand for renewable energy sources was increasing due to environmental concerns while generous government subsidies in the EU and U.S. were boosting both household and corporate demand for PV panels. Funds were poured into the solar sector in China, and companies such as Suntech, LDK and Yingli were happy to borrow.

Sorry eco nuts. China is flat out building coal fired power plants, then using some of that cheap reliable energy to make solar panels for the white middles classes in the West. You got to love that 🙂
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February 21, 2013 6:11pm
Reid

Intel has been stalled for the last two years Weihana

Azeraph did you know Berkshire Hathaway has recently sold down its entire stake in Intel?

On the Solid Energy issue, I find it quite rich that the lefties wept and wailed and rended their clothes over the disgwaceful twavesty of Solid Energy selling its world-class A-grade Coking Coal to China, and yet when it announces it’s in serious financial trouble, the very same lefties leap into the fray with strident ~~criticism~~ bullshit about how the hated tory Ministers have stood by while the poor widdle Solid Energy victim desperately stwuggled to survive.
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February 21, 2013 6:21pm
Weihana

Azeraph (313) Says:
February 21st, 2013 at 5:02 pm

Weihana (2,873) Says:
February 21st, 2013 at 4:39 pm

Intel has been stalled for the last two years Weihana, Moore’s law has plateaued, so far they have been stuck in the “I” series and just making them smaller. I think the next series is a 14 nm chip. AMD is the only one that tried to innovate with a new design but it was put out with the idea that programming will go parallel, well in some ways it has yet the majority is still single thread.

Their not getting faster, just smaller with the illusion of being fast. There is the spin machines but even they are new kids on the block and no one can afford one of those babies.

True, but Moore’s law never referred to speed specifically, it referred to the number of transistors you could fit on an integrated circuit. This has not stalled and will continue at least until about 2020. Of course it will end as this law pushes up against physical limits but it has always been the case that 10 years or so in the future you can point to some technical hurdle and suggest that those are the limits of progress because that represents the limits of what we know at that point in time.

Moreover, the integrated circuit itself is merely one type of processor and before that we had single transistors, vacuum tubes and relays. The exponential growth of computing power represents a trend of over 100 years over multiple types of technology. A 2 year trend isn’t particularly significant in that context and even if the progress slows over the next 10 years there are multiple technologies in the making, from molecular circuitry to quantum computing that will continue the exponential growth longer term.

Also, regarding speed keep in mind that the most powerful computer in existence, the human mind, is much slower than modern computers in terms of processing speed, yet it’s exceptionally parallel architecture (however it works) makes it more powerful than any computer in existence and only the most advanced supercomputers today are even approaching its raw computational power.
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February 21, 2013 6:24pm
Weihana

Kea (2,193) Says:
February 21st, 2013 at 5:56 pm

This is where we are at after your claimed 30 years of exponential growth:

“Industrial Policy: Another stimulus-backed solar panel maker, one the president touted in a weekly radio address, is filing for bankruptcy. The administration’s green-energy efforts continue to grow a deeper shade of red.
After receiving some $70 million in federal loans, Abound Solar, a Colorado-based firm that was developing thin-film solar panels, has announced it will follow an earlier Obama administration green energy failure, Solyndra, into bankruptcy.”

Even with BILLIONS of dollars of tax payers money thrown at them, solar power companies are going broke. You must really think people are stupid to believe your nonsense claim. A few seconds of “google” searching will show you up.

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2011/03/16/smaller-cheaper-faster-does-moores-law-apply-to-solar-cells/

It is not my claim, it is simply a fact. But what you are failing to understand is that the bankruptcy of stimulus backed companies simply reflects the governments inability to pick winners in the marketplace, it does not negate or undermine the accelerating returns from the technology itself. The ability to predict technological progress from exponential trends does not imply one is able to predict which specific companies or individuals will achieve that progress any more than one can predict the specific path of a particle within a gas.

The government is unwise to make investments in specific companies trying to predict who will win in the marketplace. It is better suited to more fundamental research such as the human genome project or the recently announced brain mapping project.
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February 21, 2013 6:33pm
Reid

the human mind, is much slower than modern computers in terms of processing speed

Weihana have a look at this: Brain wiring model from one of the world’s most powerful brain scanners.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-21489097

http://www.humanconnectome.org/
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February 21, 2013 6:39pm
Kacang

Some days I read the threads carefully for interest and to keep my mind open to a wide range of ideas. And score on how well an issue is presented.

But WTF, it’s Friday, I’m tired, I’m bored, so Griff, Andrei & PG automatically get downers for taking themselves too seriously. (chuckles gleefully)

BTW, Nasska, I miss your jokes
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February 21, 2013 6:40pm
bereal

Hi Ryan,

i wouldn’t argue with your maths. @ 5.10
Neither would i be suprised that the actual % of males who are gay is around 2.5%
The % rate is not the issue.
As far as i am aware, the true rate is still unknown, i don’t care what it is.
The suggested % rate has varied from at least 10% ( a figure doubtless promoted by a gay advocate of some sort )
to the 2.5% you mention.
This crap of fixating on the percentage probably started with that deviant Kinsey and is really meaningless.

We all accept that some people are gay and there is nothing wrong with that.
It’s not a choice that people make.

i was commenting on what in my opinion was a mistake that was made in this country to legalise street
prostitution. It happened to be promoted by a homosexual MP Barnett

If you look at the reasons put forward to promote that perverse decision they are almost ludicrous.

See for eg the quote from the president of the prostitutes collective or whatever she calls herself.

If street prostitution was prohibited and confined to brothels there would be far fewer desperate kids, drug addicts,
aids carriers , etc. plying their bodies for a few meagre dollars on the streets such as around Hunters Corner in Papatoetoe in Auckland for example.
If it was not so easy for them to get money that way they would have more incentive to change their lifestyles.

Legalised street soliciting does nothing to reduce the spread of aids.
The argument that if it were illegal it would reduce the use of condoms is silly.

Can you dispute that ?
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February 21, 2013 6:43pm
Kea

Weihana, predictions are not reality. You are falling into the trap Griff has with his beloved climate “models”. You claimed 30 years of exponential growth, yet large scale solar energy is not commercially viable today.

The government is unwise to make investments in specific companies

I agree. It is especially unwise if those companies intend to produce economically viable solar power (a thing that does not exist). The trouble is those solar power companies will not exist without enormous govt funding, simply because they are not profitable. If they were a viable undertaking then there would be no need for govt assistance at all. This is the true state of alternative energy today. Maybe it will improve in the future, but it does not look good for solar even in the long term. Sad but true.
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February 21, 2013 6:45pm
Kea

Some very recent Coal finds:

‘Huge coal reserves found in Badin district after Thar’
Karachi: After Thar, the coal reserves of approximately 1.785 billion tonnes have been discovered in Badin district

Wednesday, 11 Jan 2012

According to Mr Zeng Xiaogang head of the Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources in the Chinese autonomous region of Xinjiang, in 2011 a total of 13 new coal deposits were discovered in the region, amounting to an aggregate of 130.7 billion tonnes of new coal reserves.

And so it goes, on & on…

Do not expect the the worlds two biggest countries to start building wind mills or using solar panels any time soon. (not that the sun will even get through the pollution, from all those coal plants ! )
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February 21, 2013 6:56pm
Steve (North Shore)

S S AND S,

Thats right Megatron!
I was thinking of robbing a bank this afternoon to get some of that sweet Open Polytechnic action

Not good enough, smack a sniveling socialist on the hooter, then it becomes a win win
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February 21, 2013 7:02pm
publicwatchdog

WHO IS REALLY RUNNING AUCKLAND COUNCIL???

IN WHOSE INTERESTS????

21 February 2013

(Forwarded, in the public interest by fellow ‘anti-corruption’ /’whistle-blower’ ‘Public Watchdog’ – Penny Bright, with the authority of Grace Haden, including minor typographical and grammatical corrections).

“Defamatory email from Bruce Thomas. (Manager of Auckland Council ‘Democracy Services’) for the attention and action of Bruce Thomas for which I am seeking attention and action from elected members.”

“Thank you for taking the time to talk to me Stephanie , I am sending this to you and also to Bruce , I am uncertain as to where my emails go.

I have had an email forwarded on to me by sympathetic recipient of an email sent by Bruce Thomas Sent: Wednesday, 20 February 201311:02 a.m.. The email purports to be a copy of an email addressed to Gary Osborne and discusses me.

It was addressed To: GRP AC All Local Board Members

Bruce, since this discusses me I would urgently like a copy to be sent to me l directly, along with any instructions and communications which you have had from other members of council, elected or otherwise.

I request this information under urgency, under both LGOIMA and the Privacy Act.

I would also like to seek a retraction in terms of section 25 Defamation Act and part of this I believe should entitle me to address the councillors and local board members to explain the situation which non-elected members appear to be very keen to keep the lid on .

The issue I have tried to raise is serious corruption as defined by the United Nations Convention Against Corruption – is use of public office for private pecuniary gain where a previous manager of dog control contracted to himself as fictitious organisation called Animal Welfare Institute of New Zealand (AWINZ )

I am a former police prosecutor and long serving Police Officer .
Alf Filipina and I worked together in Otahuhu .

This is extremely political, and I believe the tip of the ice berg with regards to corruption in Council. The elected members are the rate payers representatives. I have evidence that our rates have been used by Council employees for self-enrichment and that other non-elected members have gone to all lengths to keep this from the Councillors.

I welcome any Councillors to contact me directly . I have a ton of evidence that Council resources were being used for private pecuniary gain. I am not in ‘contempt of Court ‘and in reality have action before the Court to have the whole matter over-turned because the decision was obtained through lies to the court which are proved through the documents later obtained from Council and MAF.

It has to be of note that neither Mr Wells nor Ms Hoadley have taken ‘contempt’ action against me, nor have they taken fresh defamation action because everything I say is backed with a raft of evidence. The tricks they used for their first victory is now under review by the Court. I can quite safely say that it is my honest opinion they have used the Court to pervert the course of justice . Their lawyers are Brookfields who happen to be closely associated with Council , and counsel for Council.

New Zealand has not ratified the UN Convention Against Corruption and if Councillors don’t want to learn from serious corruption which has occurred in the Council then the rate payers will only stand to pay more and get less while Council employees look after their own personal interests.

It is election year. Let’s see which Councillors care about corruption and who are prepared to remain silent because an employee ‘spun them a story’.

I also await a response to my LGOIMA addressed to you Bruce 11/2/2013

I also ask for the block to be taken off the telephone system I cannot contact any one in Council through the telephone system , I am always put on to answer phoes and calls are never returned.

Regards
Grace Haden

VeriSure
Because truth matters “
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February 21, 2013 7:06pm
Pete George

Kacang – your joke is a good substitute for Nasska’s.
It’s Thurday.
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February 21, 2013 7:08pm
Pete George

Here’s another joke, sorry Kacang, I laughed more at this one.

joana at 5.10 pm

I think PG is a closet muslim like Hillary Clinton , Prince Charles etc Hilary Clinton has a muslim girlfriend who calls all the shots..the scary thing is many Americans seem to like Clinton.

I’ve been accused of being a lot of things but this is the first time I’ve been likened to Hilary Clinton and Prince Charles. I’m not quite in the same league as (apparently) Clinton, I don’t know any Muslims.

It’s more likely joana and Harriet are trying to stir up Muslim sympathy, they comment about Islam much more than me.
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February 21, 2013 7:16pm
Rodders

Pete – joana is a good source of eccentric commentary, alright.
Never more so than when she claimed in all seriousness that John Key has something called japanese “dead eyes.”
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February 21, 2013 7:30pm
Steve (North Shore)

Nutter Alert.

Who is really running Auckland City Council?

Well we may not be happy with what we have, but we sure as shit are happy about who we do not have running the Auckland City Council

Attendee: Glenfield Trolley Derby 1986, I got trollied real bad
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February 21, 2013 7:31pm
grumpy

Will there even be a job for Chauvel, or for that matter Hulun?

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/02/20/us-other-nations-quietly-maneuvering-to-rein-in-sprawling-inefficient-un-system/?test=latestnews
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February 21, 2013 7:38pm
graham

When reading any of Penny’s writings, or observing her actions, we must remember one very important thing:

She does not necessarily believe what she says. You cannot believe that she is sincere.

For Penny, the prime motivation is definitively NOT to get her message out there. Think about it. If this was really her intention, would she act in such a way as to bring ridicule, scorn and pity upon herself? After all, ask anybody about Penny Bright and they may well say “Who?” But remind them of the shameful and embarrassing spectacle observed in Aotea Square when a certain lady was observed howling, squawking, abusing, and ultimately being taken away as much for her own protection as anything else, and you will see the spark of recognition, followed by scorn or possibly pity, enter their eyes. Mention that she was the lady who stood for public election, and then willfully vandalised the billboards of her opponent, and they will understand who you are talking about.

Would someone who is supposedly such an experienced activist, who claims to be so politically aware, deliberately act in such a way as to guarantee that any message she might have will inevitably be overshadowed by her bizarre antics – if she truly cared about getting the message out there? I really don’t think so.

The prime motivation for Penny, obviously, is to gain attention. That’s all. I’m no medical person, but surely this is a classic case of narcissism. Using other people without considering the cost of doing so; pretending to be more important than they really are; claiming to be an expert in various areas; and if you go through Hotchkiss’ seven deadly sins of narcissism, Penny ticks virtually every box.

Penny is not to be sneered at or insulted. She is to be pitied, for the lengths she will go to in order to effectively plead, “Look at me! Look at me!”
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February 21, 2013 7:52pm
nasska

Something for those who skipped sex education periods at college.

ef https://www.dropbox.com/s/9o1nkgiofn69m8c/comparing-types-of-birth-control.png
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February 21, 2013 7:52pm
joana

San paku eyes are well known in New York , Japan , and mostly probably in Europe and Australia , but thanks for the compliment rodders..I do not mind being considered eccentric..It is more likely that I just read a lot more than you do..I first read about this concept about 25 years ago..
Why do you label someone who knows something you don’t know , eccentric? You need to read more. Oh and yes , Key is sick.
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February 21, 2013 7:59pm
Yvette

from yesterday evening –
Penny Bright 
Anti-corruption campaigner’ 
2013 Auckland Mayoral Candidate

I would have thought that a principled person, not paying their rates to protest a point, would act to make that point within a reasonable time – say, at the outside two years – if only to emphasize how fucking useless the Auckland City council is in having ratepayers comply with the simplest first requirement – that they pay rates.

Someone who allows this position to exist for up to four years or longer is not acting in a principled manner displaying any integrity – rather they are as corrupt as those they claim to campaign against.

But then someone who responds to the comment –
 “Pay your rates thieving bludging bloody mad woman.” 
with - 
“‘thedavincimode’ – you have NO idea how much you have made my day 🙂 ”
 indicates Penny Bright’s real motivation.
 Do not fed the watchdog.
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February 21, 2013 7:59pm
nasska

He tried the old “it’s not you, it’s me” line last night, but it didn’t work.

He also said, “I’ve been hurt before, it’s too soon,” but was ignored.

Prison’s going to be harder than the poor bugger thought.
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February 21, 2013 8:00pm
Pete George

David Farrar spotted jogging, downing an energy drink – http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2013/02/david-farrar-spotted-jogging-downing-an-energy-drink/
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February 21, 2013 8:02pm
Steve (North Shore)

And now for something different:

Today (21.02.13) I received a bill from Meridian Energy. It was dated 15.02.13. That’s six days.
I rang and asked them why such a delay – they blame NZ Post. And the thieving bastards have charged $5 for a service letter.
Now my bill was up to date with zero balance when I paid by Internet Banking on 13.02.13

This is of coarse part of a plan to milk more money.

Sooner Meridian is sold the better, get rid of the deadwood Public Servants
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February 21, 2013 8:04pm
Sofia

Belief that Mr Bain should receive compensation was strongest among Maori Party voters (78 per cent). National Party supporters were least likely to agree to a payout (53 per cent).
National and Conservative Party voters were more inclined to believe Mr Bain was not wrongfully imprisoned. Younger people were more likely to agree that he deserves compensation.

This conclusion to a poll on compensation for Bain would surely indicate the question was not worth asking in the first place.
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February 21, 2013 8:07pm
Rodders

..It is more likely that I just read a lot more than you do

Probably. I prefer non-fiction.
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February 21, 2013 8:08pm
graham

Yvette:

But then someone who responds to the comment –
 “Pay your rates thieving bludging bloody mad woman.” 
with - 
“‘thedavincimode’ – you have NO idea how much you have made my day 🙂 ”
 indicates Penny Bright’s real motivation.

Quite correct. Poor woman. Yet another sign of her desperate pleas to “Look at me! Look at me!”
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February 21, 2013 8:12pm
Weihana

Kea (2,195) Says:
February 21st, 2013 at 6:45 pm
Weihana, predictions are not reality.

Of course not but it doesn’t mean a prediction is necessarily untrue. Your brain was made for predicting. It is what allowed our ancestors to outsmart competing predators in the wild so it is silly to dismiss predictions outright. There are limitations to what is predictable but the future is not categorically unpredictable. Moore’s law is but one example of the future being predictable decades in advance.

You are falling into the trap Griff has with his beloved climate “models”.

That is how science works, we model the world around us and test those models against reality. Newtons laws of motion, for instance, are just a model and as with any model they are only correct within the limits of the model. Does that therefore make them wrong?

You claimed 30 years of exponential growth, yet large scale solar energy is not commercially viable today.

Exponential growth always starts out almost imperceptibly slow until it explodes out of nowhere. The Internet is a classic example of this. In the 80s the notion that the world, in the very near future, would be so interconnected was fanciful precisely because intuition is linear and not exponential. In linear terms if you add 2 30 times you get to 60. However in exponential terms if you start with 2 and double it 30 times you end up with a billion. But halfway to a billion you are only at 32 thousand.

solar power is approaching parity with conventional sources very soon. I.e. The next ten years. In 20 it will be ubiquitous. Look at it this way. At least I’m not going to try and get the government to ban dirty energy because I believe the market will do that by itself. So you can have faith in those conventional sources of energy and I’ll have mine.
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February 21, 2013 8:18pm
Kea

That is how science works, we model the world around us and test those models against reality. Newtons laws of motion, for instance, are just a model and as with any model they are only correct within the limits of the model. Does that therefore make them wrong?

What makes Griffs models wrong is reality. Which is sort of my point. Reality is the test of the models and predictions. Some times those predictions and models are wrong. Newton based his models on observation, not models. He created the models from the observation.

I do not have “faith” in conventional energy, nor do I have a coal fired power plant. It is not about what I am doing. Truth be told I would lean more towards silly windmills and solar power if I had my way. But that is about being self sufficient, not running a commercial enterprise.

Other than that there is not much to disagree with in your post.
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February 21, 2013 8:31pm
Griff

Newton’s Principia formulated the laws of motion and universal gravitation that dominated scientists’ view of the physical universe for the next three centuries. It also demonstrated that the motion of objects on the Earth and that of celestial bodies could be described by the same principles. By deriving Kepler’s laws of planetary motion from his mathematical description of gravity,Newton removed the last doubts about the validity of the heliocentric model of the cosmos.

That would be Newton using a model Luddite.
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February 21, 2013 8:41pm
RightNow

Weihana, I’m actually a bit partial to solar myself, it would be my preferred way of supplementing grid power with my own generation. Actually my preferred way would be micro-hydro, but I can’t see that happening while I’m living in the city, although I suspect one of my neighbours has hooked a hose up to a water turbine, since my water pressure has mysteriously dropped recently.

Anyway solar is limited the amount of energy coming from the sun. Current total solar irradiance is about 1367w/m^2 (e.g http://www.ukssdc.ac.uk/wdcc1/papers/grl.html#figure5) so even at 100% efficiency you’re never going to get more than that.

I agree the costs are coming down and the efficiency is getting up, personally I think it’s most suited to small scale installations like on houses, but it will always need a baseload backup method of generation. Battery technology just isn’t cutting it, and the chemicals and manufacturing processes involved (with battery production and disposal) negate much of the benefit.
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February 21, 2013 8:45pm
RightNow

“That would be Newton using a model Luddite.”

Except Newton validated his model against observations.
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February 21, 2013 8:46pm
Johnboy

If Griff had a big enough Aircon unit, a huge hockey stick as a lever and enough corpses of you deniers to act as a fulcrum he could cool the world! 🙂
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February 21, 2013 8:48pm
Reid

You know what’s interesting? It’s not that the POTUS is gay, it’s that he doesn’t bother telling the voters about it so they can make an informed decision. Sounds like someone we used to know, doesn’t it.

http://theulstermanreport.com/2013/02/19/barack-obama-vacations-with-former-body-man-reggie-love/
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February 21, 2013 8:53pm
Azeraph

Our true future lies not in energy but in superconductive created materials that operate in any temperature. This will take time but it is starting to have some interest shown in it by major universities. These materials become energy transformers, so, if your car or house is partly made of this material, just what do you think you could turn it into?

It’s the last true frontier for us to conquer on planet based transportation.
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February 21, 2013 8:56pm
Griff

Back to the its not warming theme
Take out el nino and solar forcing and volcanoes
http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2006/2006_Hansen_etal_1.pdf
http://www.skepticalscience.com//images/ipcc_ar4_model_vs_obs.gif
0.16 degrees a decade.
Matches the modals
Climate denial modals however have a startling habit of being wrong.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/Predictions_500.gif

Shall we look at climate denial ice extent predictions
http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/Predictions1976-2011.png

dear dear climate denial does have a pathetic record when it comes to climate modling doesn’t it.
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February 21, 2013 8:58pm
Johnboy

“or house is partly made of this material, just what do you think you could turn it into?”

Something that the power companies would pay you less for as more folk did it!! 🙂
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February 21, 2013 8:59pm
KevinH

Until an efficient reliable storage system is developed for solar and wind energy, these systems will fail to fully realise their potential. There is no question that both wind and solar have their place in energy supply, but until the storage conundrum is resolved cost efficiencies will elude that market sector.

@paul east bay.
Sorry to disappoint you but I am not Kevin Hague the Green MP. We share a similar name but are miles apart philosophically.
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February 21, 2013 9:01pm
Johnboy

You’d be “Kevin Holely-Normal then? 🙂
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February 21, 2013 9:03pm
Weihana

Kea,

Newton based his models on observation, not models…

Climate models are also based on observation and they are tested. They are not perfect but have some use. The ability to hind cast past climate for instance is an indicator of their usefulness. But I agree there is uncertainty. How to reconcile model tropospheric warming being greater than surface warming for instance raises questions about their accuracy.
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February 21, 2013 9:11pm
Johnboy

This is the best time of KB. It’s like having the smoke after sex.
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February 21, 2013 9:18pm
Steve (North Shore)

I prefer a dawnbreaker Johnboy
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February 21, 2013 9:23pm
nasska

That’s where KY Jelly can reduce the friction heaps JB. 🙂
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February 21, 2013 9:24pm
Steve (North Shore)

Teachers, leave those kids alone.
12/2 = what?
It is that fucking simple
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February 21, 2013 9:27pm
Weihana

http://cleantechnica.com/2012/11/12/effective-solar-energy-storage-system-developed/

Researchers at the University of Arkansas have developed a solar energy storage system that stores the thermal energy (heat) absorbed by solar panels at a lower cost than conventional energy storage methods

It has an impressively low cost of $0.78 per kWh, far less than the U.S Department of Energy’s goal of $15 per kWh.
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February 21, 2013 9:31pm
Pete George

I prefer a dawnbreaker Johnboy

I got criticised this morning (see above) for blogging around.
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February 21, 2013 9:32pm
Kea

The ability to hind cast past climate for instance is an indicator of their usefulness.

Are you drunk ?

Or maybe your right, the fact they can predict something after the event, is an indicator of a the climate models usefulness. (Not very) But why do weathermen need a model to do that ?

Griff its past your bedtime, your getting cranky and too stoned. Go grab Karma and hit the hay.
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February 21, 2013 9:33pm
Johnboy

Try lanolin instead of KY PG. 🙂
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February 21, 2013 9:34pm
liarbors a joke

one a scumbag..always a scumbag..

http://news.msn.co.nz/nationalnews/8614941/wilson-recalled-to-prison
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February 21, 2013 9:36pm
Rodders

evenin’..starboard..
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February 21, 2013 9:36pm
krazykiwi

Awww c’mon pete. Man up. That wasn’t criticism. It was ridicule 😀
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February 21, 2013 9:43pm
RightNow

If only there was an efficient way to harness the energy used rooting. We could nationalise welfare mothers and they can be our new state power assets. Then we can do a partial sell-down. win-win
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February 21, 2013 9:44pm
Weihana

Kea,

No not drunk….sadly 🙂

But past climate is an observation. I agree the usefulness of the test is limited as the data upon which the model is made is not entirely independent data set but it is not a pointless exercise.
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February 21, 2013 9:44pm
Kea

Researchers at the University of Arkansas have developed a solar energy storage system that stores the thermal energy (heat) absorbed by solar panels at a lower cost than conventional energy storage methods

If we can get around the storage problem then solar panels will become more viable. BUT so will all the other forms of energy generation. Solar will still be inefficient, by comparison, with today’s cost to energy ratios.

One very effective way to store energy is Coal & Oil . Best of all, they are organic and created by mother nature. 100% pure and natural.
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February 21, 2013 9:46pm
RightNow

“I agree the usefulness of the test is limited as the data upon which the model is made is not entirely independent data set but it is not a pointless exercise.”

It’s made somewhat pointless when the data is adjusted to fit the hypothesis.
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February 21, 2013 9:50pm
Johnboy

“We could nationalise welfare mothers”……But the Murris would own more than 49% RightNow! 🙂
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February 21, 2013 9:50pm
liarbors a joke

..evenin’ rodders..hows the family..must catch up
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February 21, 2013 9:52pm
Weihana

It’s made somewhat pointless when the data is adjusted to fit the hypothesis…

If that were the case then yes.
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February 21, 2013 9:58pm
RightNow

That’s ok Johnboy, they could have them all as full and final settlement under te tiriti. In fact it doesn’t even need to be final settlement, they’re a renewable resource!
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February 21, 2013 9:58pm
Weihana

Kea,

The cheapest solar modules, not yet on the market, have manufacturing costs under $1 per watt, making them contenders – when they reach the market – for breaking the 12 cents per Kwh mark.

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2011/03/16/smaller-cheaper-faster-does-moores-law-apply-to-solar-cells/

We will see. I’ll probably be on kiwiblog in ten years so if the exponential trend doesn’t continue because all the scientists and engineers fell asleep you can have a good laugh at my expense. 🙂
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February 21, 2013 10:07pm
Kea

I think another form of organic energy we are failing to exploit is Dolphin and Whale blubber. The stupid things suicide by their hundreds anyway. They really are the morons of the aquatic world and have not even evolved enough to breath under water like everything else has. It will also cut down on predation, of our valuable fish stocks, by these evolutionary mistakes.

Other benefits of eliminating them include; reduced incidence of beard growing, less post menopausal women thinking they can have a connection with dolphins, millions of tons of co2 will not be liberated by flotillas of greeny ships, the Japs can go back to building decent cars, hippies will be more inclined to work…
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February 21, 2013 10:07pm
krazykiwi

This is good: http://joannenova.com.au/2013/02/tophers-new-video-the-forbidden-history-of-terrible-taxes. Very clear. Every budding socialist should watch.
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February 21, 2013 10:12pm
Kea

Weihana, a very informative link, thanks.

I liked this bit :

The numbers are staggering and surprising. In 88 minutes, the sun provides 470 exajoules of energy, as much energy as humanity consumes in a year. In 112 hours – less than five days – it provides 36 zettajoules of energy – as much energy as is contained in all proven reserves of oil, coal, and natural gas on this planet.

Do you know ~~Griff~~ some crazies actually discount the Sun as a factor in climate change ? They think burning a few lumps of coal or running down the shop in your car is the deciding factor. Crazy a ? 😉
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February 21, 2013 10:16pm
RightNow

“hippies will be more inclined to work…” – that’s where you jumped the shark.
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February 21, 2013 10:34pm
axeman

Yay for gween energy huh Kea. A result of continuing the destructive and unscientific path to lowering CO2 for power production.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/9879442/Household-bills-likely-to-rise-sharply-as-Britain-comes-dangerously-near-energy-shortage.html

And things must be desperate (for ALARMISTS) if “National Geographic” has to stoop this low to find someone to discuss climate science.

“The National Geographic Science Blogs have added Dr. Peter Gleick to its roster of contributors despite the fact that he stole documents from The Heartland Institute in 2012, creating and disseminated a phony ‘memo’ to defame the 28-year-old, non-profit research organization.”
http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com.au/2013/02/protecting-global-warming-liars.html
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February 21, 2013 10:55pm
axeman

New Global Warming Report: Scientists Lied to Australian Parliament

“Principia Scientific International is a self-sustaining community of impartial scientists from around the world deliberating, debating and publishing cutting-edge thinking on a range of issues without a preconceived idea of outcomes.”
http://principia-scientific.org/supportnews/latest-news/120-new-global-warming-report-scientists-lied-to-australian-parliament.html

And Andrew Bolt fisks the CAGW nutters 🙂
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/in_the_faint_hope_that_emerson_has_an_open_mind/
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February 21, 2013 11:07pm
Ryan Sproull

Do you know Griff some crazies actually discount the Sun as a factor in climate change ? They think burning a few lumps of coal or running down the shop in your car is the deciding factor. Crazy a ?

With all that energy coming off the sun, it’s a wonder the Earth didn’t explode a million years ago! It’s almost as if something other than the sun has changed!
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February 21, 2013 11:11pm
Azeraph

Anyone conspiracists checkout the new google glasses set that will be available soon for i think $1500?
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February 21, 2013 11:11pm
cha

Gleick gets a new job and his old job back while Heartland lost major donors, board members and staff quit and has been reduced to selling t-shirts and coffee mugs. Too funny.
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February 21, 2013 11:18pm
Azeraph

The reason why we feel the need for more energy will be for the one reason we feel death approaching, Posterity. We feel an innate need to post video, comments, poetry, everything. In the hope of it being useful to someone else in a moment somewhere in the future. Surveillance 24/7 needs to be recorded somewhere, wi-fi everywhere. Online invoicing just after you have quoted a client you’ve worked in less than ten min’s. Apart from new housing, just what energy do we need?
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February 21, 2013 11:32pm
Kea

It’s almost as if something other than the sun has changed!

Gosh Ryan Sproull, For sure, your a smart guy. The earths climate is in constant change. Change is normal when your talking about climate. Do you know, for example, that the earth was covered in ice numerous times ?

In fact humans would not even be here if the earth did not go through warming cycles. Some cycles were so extreme that they melted most of the ice off the earth and allowed people to evolve. The amount of ice was huge, kilometers thick in places and it all went away. (this was before capitalism and America were invented). We are either in an Ice age or emerging from one. No one is quite sure, but with no temperature rise and increasing ice, I tend to think we are on the down hill slope to a new ice age. So do scientists it seems:

Climate Scientists Predicts a ‘Mini Ice Age’ in the Future Amid Evidence Of Sun’s Diminishing Acitivity

NASA’s prediction that the sun’s next 11-year activity phase or “Cycle 25: will be one of the weakest in centuries and is likely to decrease until 2100, has led some scientists to foresee a “mini ice age” in the future.

According to climate scientists, after emitting unusually high levels of energy throughout the 20th Century, the sun is now heading towards a “grand minimum” in its output, threatening cold summers, bitter winters and a shortening of the season available for growing food.

Data issued recently by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit confirmed that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997.

http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/291814/20120203/climate-scientists-predicts-mini-ice-age-future.htm#.USX4Ox2mgQh
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February 21, 2013 11:38pm
Kea

Gleick gets a new job and his old job back while Heartland lost major donors, board members and staff quit and has been reduced to selling t-shirts and coffee mugs. Too funny.

Does this mean no more lies about Heartland getting all that money from BIG OIL and the non-existent( but scary sounding) “carbon industry” ?

Speaking of donors, how much funding does the IPCC get annually ?
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February 21, 2013 11:41pm
Griff

http://what-is-is.blogspot.co.nz/2013/02/expose-118-million-funneled-to-climate.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/feb/14/donors-trust-funding-climate-denial-networks
The secretive funding channel known as the Donors Trust patronised a host of conservative causes.

But climate was at the top of the list. By 2010, Donors Trust had distributed $118m to 102 thinktanks or action groups which have a record of denying the existence of a human factor in climate change, or opposing environmental regulations.

Recipients included some of the best-known thinktanks on the right. The American Enterprise Institute, which is closely connected to the Republican party establishment and has a large staff of scholars, received more than $17m in untraceable donations over the years, the record show.

But relatively obscure organisations did not go overlooked. The Heartland Institute, virtually unknown outside the small world of climate politics, received $13.5m from the Donors Trust.

Americans for Prosperity, the Tea Party group seen as the strike force of the conservative oil billionaire Koch Brothers, received $11m since 2002.

Levi Russell, spokesman for Americans for Prosperity, declined to comment on the importance of that support to the organisation. “We’re very grateful for each of the millions of activists and donors that make what we do possible,” he said in an email.
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February 22, 2013 12:09am
UglyTruth

http://iaincarstairs.wordpress.com/2013/02/15/the-reality-of-chemical-spraying/

And here’s the Appleman chart, showing that permanent contrails were impossible that day whether at 20,000 or 30,000 feet. At 30,000′ the pressure was 304 and relative humidity 23%. But at 20,000 feet the temperature was only -21.5C with 30% relative humidity. The commercial planes at intervals throughout the day left at most a tiny white comma, and many times not even that: the trails were just not there. The only trails were left by jets which did not show up as civilian, commercial or private traffic. This conclusion isn’t open to debate, and it isn’t a theory – it is a fact which can be verified by anyone with an iPhone and at least one eye, and the ability to tilt the head skyward
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February 22, 2013 5:06am
Kea

The secretive funding

It is not that much of a secret if you know about it and it is all over the internet climate conspiracy sites you frequent Grifffy.
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February 22, 2013 6:07am
Kea

Those of you who support the “free Syria” (Islamic extremists) rebels should check this out.

http://rt.com/news/syria-blast-explosion-damascus-201/
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February 22, 2013 6:16am
SPC

Kea, the original protests were from the people – the use of force against civilians led to the civil war.

The regime every decade or so uses the military to crush civilian protest and cower opposition and has routinely interfered in Lebanese politics – including terrorist acts/assassinations.

The Islamists fighting them are being armed (and paid) by Saudi Arabia. There is a Shia minority in the NE of SA near southern Iraq – now ruled by a Shia majority government with close links to Iran. This is part of the Saudi Arabia “Cold War” vs Shia Arab Moslems (Bahrain and Syria are the hot spots) under “Persian imperial influence”.

Most people are on the side of local democracy, not either tyranny. And notably it is Sunni Arab Islamists who resort to bombings (killing Shia in Iraq and Pakistan), with the exception of Syria (state) and their Hizbollah proxy in Lebanon (“armed gang” in the government of a state).
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February 22, 2013 7:26am
HB

an amazing story of survival that had me crying this morning
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/8337075/Mothers-survival-against-the-odds
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February 22, 2013 7:33am
RF

HB. I agree. A bloody tough story to read first thing in the morning. A sad day for Christchurch.
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February 22, 2013 7:46am

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