January Public Polls

February 12th, 2013 at 4:00 pm by David Farrar

jan2013polls

 

Just published the monthly polling newsletter. The summary is:

January saw just two published – both Roy Morgan .

 The average of the public polls has National 14% ahead of Labour in January, 2% greater than in December. The seat projection is centre-right 57 seats, centre-left 61.

 Australia has divergent poll results with Roy Morgan having the Coalition 3% ahead and Newspoll 12% ahead. Newspoll also has Gillard’s approval rating dropping and Abbott’s rising.

 In the United States Barack Obama’s approval rating is at +10%, and the country direction is -22%. The generic congressional poll average has the Democrats 5% ahead of the Republicans.

 In the UK the Conservatives are 8% behind Labour, having gone up in the polls after announcing a future referendum on membership of the EU.

 In Canada the Conservatives are on 25%, NDP 30% and Liberals 22%.

 The normal two tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment and head of government approval sentiment for the five countries. New Zealand continues to top both.

 We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on Maori voters, Prince Charles, same sex marriage, euthanasia, housing affordability, The Hobbit, drink driving plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

The full  newsletter is only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.

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16 Responses to “January Public Polls”

  1. OneTrack (1,977 comments) says:

    Don’t you mean the seat projection is centre-left 57 seats and left to hard-left 61 seats?

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  2. dime (8,778 comments) says:

    how the f*^$ do the greens poll over 1%?

    what is wrong with people???

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  3. KiwiGreg (3,129 comments) says:

    @dime I am astonished at my acquaintances who vote(d) green. Most have no real underestanding of their actual policies or aims.

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  4. dime (8,778 comments) says:

    greg – i think thats what bugs me the most. clever marketing followed up by people like toad who tell us green policies are really popular. outright deception!

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  5. graham (2,211 comments) says:

    I think most votes for the Greens are due to the “feel-good” factor. People have this feeling that we should “save the planet” and are vaguely aware that the Greens talk about “saving the planet”. So if they vote Greens, they’re doing their bit and don’t have to feel guilty any more, or actually think about the realities and implications of Green policies.

    Using clean renewable energy sources sounds like a great idea, until you start looking a bit closer at the implications.

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  6. KiwiGreg (3,129 comments) says:

    “green” is certainly better branding then “the anti-science misanthropes”

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  7. KiwiGreg (3,129 comments) says:

    Although “the anti-science misanthropes” would be a cool name for a band

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  8. pq (728 comments) says:

    Farrars figures place NZ First as centre left, but this gives no clue as to coalition preferences. It as though he whose name mkust never be mentioned, but you will Farrrar you will.
    NZNat = 42% NZF = 7%

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  9. duggledog (1,117 comments) says:

    Dime, Kiwigreg, Graham, I know. The reason is callow youth mainly I suspect and those who think yeah cuddly old Rod Donald and whales. They stop at policy and numbers because it’s too boring and the sport is on shortly. You can’t help them, they’ll just have to learn the hard way.

    The one thing I am gonna enjoy if we do experience a coalition with the Greens wielding any sort of meaningful power is: bludgeoning people I know, (yep, otherwise intelligent, well-meaning people) who have made the mistake of telling me their bizarre voting preference, with the resulting shambles every time I see them.

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  10. Griff (6,263 comments) says:

    Scary and the right dont know the reason.

    The environment counts. There is only one earth.

    The silly liberal woman are probably your wives.
    :lol:

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  11. krazykiwi (9,188 comments) says:

    Don’t you mean the seat projection is centre-left 57 seats and left to hard-left 61 seats?

    Quite so. As more and more people believe it’s the ‘governments’ job to care for them, provide health, education, housing, income, cradle-to-grave support and whim fulfilment, there will be more and more left parties and policies springing up to meet this demand. MMP provides a mechanism for all these factions to combine, and go on to pillage what little remains of productive NZers’s output.

    We are on the highway to destitution. And the left, including National, are providing the engine, steering and mollifying travel music to keep us happy.

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  12. Johnboy (13,424 comments) says:

    I’m due for the pension soon. I think I might start voting for Winston. :)

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  13. rg (190 comments) says:

    The seat projection of nil seats for ACT does not stack up. There is no good reason that the people of Epsom will choose a Labour govt by voting against the ACT candidate. The polls as far as ACT and the candidiate seat in Epsom are concerned have never got it right. Pollsters need to be callled to account here, they are either incompetent or bias.

    National supporters do not like ACT because it is a Party which reminds them of what National used to stand for before it sold out. Probably explains the inaccurate projections by their supporters.

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  14. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (529 comments) says:

    A sad good bye to National and John Key for the next 9 years.

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  15. Anthony (737 comments) says:

    SCS must be having another wet dream!

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  16. gazzmaniac (2,270 comments) says:

    As much as I would like it to stay out of politics, I think an effective campaign by National would be to have a series of ads along the lines of “do you really want to Hone, the Greens, and Winston Peters to run the country? You will get this if you vote for Labour.”

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