Latest Roy Morgan poll

February 1st, 2013 at 10:00 am by David Farrar

I’ve blogged at Curiablog the latest Roy Morgan poll. National and Labour are unchanged (14.5% gap) but what has moved significantly is the country direction which has increased from a net +20% to a net +26.5%.

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21 Responses to “Latest Roy Morgan poll”

  1. pq (728 comments) says:

    so good Mr farrar, what good news you give us all

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  2. krazykiwi (9,186 comments) says:

    pq – when will Winston pay back the $158,000 he still owes us?

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  3. ChardonnayGuy (1,206 comments) says:

    Good to see the Selfservatives polling within the margin of error anyway. Has anyone else noted that CC is currently missing in action in the context of the marriage equality debate and looks shinier? Has he developed a teflon coating, or is it my imagination :)

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  4. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (890 comments) says:

    This poll is actually bad news for National. The left block consists of Labour-Green-Mana-NZ First will easily form the Government though National could end up as the largest party. I think unfortunately due to lack of partners National will end up as a two term government. This is bad news for NZ as John Key and his Government has steered NZ skilfully through really tough economic times.

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  5. bringbackdemocracy (427 comments) says:

    National do have a problem with a viable coalition partner, especially with the demise of Act and the Maori party.
    The Conservatives continue to remain a realistic option, especially as they have the potential to draw votes from NZ First and Labour.

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  6. smttc (752 comments) says:

    SCS, history tells us that Winston won’t have a bar of the Greens being in government.

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  7. thedavincimode (6,759 comments) says:

    Has he developed a teflon coating, or is it my imagination

    Purely a result of the oleaginous little dumpling’s glands working overtime during the summer.

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  8. sweetd (125 comments) says:

    The Greens haven’t had any detail put on them yet. Key gave Norman some simple truths the other day in the house, and I think come election time, their lovely Green policies will be exposed as to how much they will cost.

    But regardless, its really just the same left block moving between Labour and the Greens with the serious nut jobs going for Mana, the overall left block number does not change, National still commands the middle ground, but only just.

    The lack of any partners of note and the “relaxed National voters who think that they are 10 points ahead of Labour so why do I need to vote old style FPP” thinking may yet be be the undoing.

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  9. bringbackdemocracy (427 comments) says:

    smittc

    History tells us that Winston says one thing and then does the opposite.

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  10. s.russell (1,642 comments) says:

    It is a bit soon to be jumping to conclusions.

    1) Remember that the historical norm is for Govt polling to sag mid-term and rally at election-time as people look more closely at the alternative. I find it hard to believe that voters taking a hard look at Labour and the Greens is going to help them.

    2) If this polling is right (and I admit that’s a big if) it would only take a 1pc rise for National and a 1pc fall for NZ First and National would likely be re-elected, so things are still pretty close.

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  11. Liberty (267 comments) says:

    National may be short of Coalition partners. So what
    Labour is in a far more tenuous position. With it unresolved leadership problems.
    The greens polling nearly 50% of labour. That would Guarantee Norman as minister of finance.
    New Zealand First with its incoherent leader will be dog tucker come the next election.
    Then there is Mana . Hona in cabinet. The joys of democracy.
    The Gang of 4 is going to work together like one big happy family. Sure and pigs might fly.
    There are more chances of seeing Jesus walk down the street than the Gang of 4 forming
    a long term viable government.

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  12. Cunningham (844 comments) says:

    National is slowely building up some ammunition which they can use come the election campaign. Labours wonky housing figures, Normans printing press, Norman as Finance minister. They will just hold these little gems and then hammer the shit out of the left with them next year. Shearer will be like a deer in the headlights.

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  13. wreck1080 (3,912 comments) says:

    Being purely selfish I may vote for labour or even the greens next election.

    I imagine they will cause the dollar to go lower thus improving my income.

    Although, I’m seriously considering throwing in the towel anyway as I’ve given up on the dollar falling and my income has nearly halved in the last 5 years. I wonder how many are feeling like me? (providing IT services to overseas companies)

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  14. CrazyIvan (90 comments) says:

    Add in the real possibility of the Maori Party losing a couple of electorates (Turia’s and Sharples’), maybe even all of them, and you have a possibility of left and right tied in terms of total seats with Winston the kingmaker (yuck).

    Conservatives I don’t think are a real coalition option – unles something really changes in the next 18 months they’d need to triple their share of the party vote to get over 5% and look unlikely at taking an electorate seat anywhere.

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  15. hj (7,011 comments) says:

    Winston knows this:

    “The big adverse gap in productivity between New Zealand and other countries opened up from the 1970s to the early 1990s. The policy choice that increased immigration – given the number of employers increasingly unable to pay First-World wages to the existing population and all the capital requirements that increasing populations involve – looks likely to have worked almost directly against the adjustment New Zealand needed to make and it might have been better off with a lower rate of net immigration. This adjustment would have involved a lower real interest rate (and cost of capital) and a lower real exchange rate, meaning a more favourable environment for raising the low level of productive capital per worker and labour productivity. The low level of capital per worker is a striking symptom of New Zealand’s economic challenge.

    http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/reviews-consultation/savingsworkinggroup/pdfs/swg-report-jan11.pdf

    I’d say that 158,000 owed by NZ First is money well spent.
    The vested interests behind National sure have deep pockets (and the odd diesel powered super yacht too no doubt)

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  16. hj (7,011 comments) says:

    All that’s left of United Future (in terms of polling) is the whiff of smoke (tobacco of course).

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  17. pq (728 comments) says:

    NZ First has votes, its like money in the bank, yes we do have problems with affiliation,
    but you can forget about the Greens and I am going to get my backside kicked for saying so.
    Coalition NZ Nat 42% NZ First 9% $NZ 0.89

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  18. pq (728 comments) says:

    wreck1080 (2,620) Says:
    February 1st, 2013 at 11:49 am
    Being purely selfish I may vote for labour or even the greens next election.
    I imagine they will cause the dollar to go lower thus improving my income.
    Although, I’m seriously considering throwing in the towel anyway as I’ve given up on the dollar falling and my income has nearly halved in the last 5 years. I wonder how many are feeling like me? (providing IT services to overseas companies)

    wreck1080, would you be prepared to give me a figure on income from overseas, and how could Labour Green help

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  19. pq (728 comments) says:

    Cunningham (297) Says:
    February 1st, 2013 at 11:33 am
    National is slowely building up some ammunition which they can use come the election campaign. Labours wonky housing figures, Normans printing press, Norman as Finance minister. They will just hold these little gems and then hammer the shit out of the left with them next year. Shearer will be like a deer in the headlights.

    very funny Mr Cunningham, but are you sure we shoot Shearer, or that other

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  20. Johnboy (16,554 comments) says:

    Once the war in the middle east gets properly underway later this year folks will flock back to a strong leader.

    No need to worry team unless the UN sacks Helen for mismanagement and she comes home! :)

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  21. Shazzadude (529 comments) says:

    S. Russell:

    “It is a bit soon to be jumping to conclusions.

    1) Remember that the historical norm is for Govt polling to sag mid-term and rally at election-time as people look more closely at the alternative. I find it hard to believe that voters taking a hard look at Labour and the Greens is going to help them.”

    Name one second-term government in New Zealand history that recovered in such a way by the next election. The historical norm is for the opposition to experience significant positive swings heading into the election from that position.

    Voters in general don’t fear the Greens, and the media give them an easy run, so I don’t see the opposition scare-monger factor playing much of a role.

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