The latest poll of Maori voters

February 4th, 2013 at 4:24 pm by David Farrar

I’ve blogged at Curiablog the results of the latest Te Karere Digipoll.

I read a column over the weekend about how the was basically dead and they should accept Hone Harawira’s generous offer to let him become leader and merge with the . With that in mind it is worth looking at what the results for each party.

33.5% party vote, with party vote on the roll up 3.5% (from last poll in January 2012) and on the general roll (of voters) down 13.1%.

On the electorate vote, Labour are 8.9% below what they got in the 2011 election.

Maori Party

27.5% party vote, with party vote on the Maori roll up 2.7% (from last poll in January 2012) and on the general roll (of Maori voters) up 7.7%.

On the electorate vote, Maori Party are 4.8% above what they got in the 2011 election.

Mana Party

5.7% party vote, with party vote on the Maori roll down 5.3% (from last poll in January 2012) and on the general roll (of Maori voters) up 0.2%.

On the electorate vote, Maori Party are 1.2% below what they got in the 2011 election.

David Shearer

They asked those Maori voters who said they would party vote Labour if they could name the Labour Party Leader. Only 34.7% could name David Shearer as Leader.

Of the 34.7% who could name him, they asked if they thought he was providing good leadership on Maori issues. Only 28.0% agreed.

Commentary

Labour has gained some support on the party vote from Maori on the Maori roll, but on the electorate vote they are polling well below what they got even in 2011. Also they have had a drop off in support from Maori on the general roll.

The Maori Party has increased party vote support with Maori on both the general and Maori rolls, and are polling higher in the electorate vote than they got in 2011.

The Mana Party has almost halved its party vote support from Maori on the Maori roll, and has also dropped in electorate vote support from 2011.

Two elements of caution. Maori voters tend to be harder to poll than non-Maori, so there is a greater chance of sampling errors which can impact accuracy. Also tensions around the Maori Party leadership occurred during the polling period and may not be fully reflected.

However even with those cautionary notes, I would say that those writing off the Maori Party are incredibly premature.  The poll shows they have retained and grown support, while Labour and Mana have stagnated or dropped.

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13 Responses to “The latest poll of Maori voters”

  1. Manolo (13,783 comments) says:

    Two elements of caution. Maori voters tend to be harder to poll than non-Maori,..

    Why, DPF? Do they ask for some koha first? :-)

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  2. Pete George (23,572 comments) says:

    Annette King quipped about the poll result to Duncan Garner on Twitter. She asked “and they know who the PM is?”. Not an unfair question.

    However it’s not seen like that at The Standard. Zetetic has posted a WTF? of King:

    Now, I’m no MP with 25 years’ experience but I reckon it’s pretty obvious that trying to deflect from a poll showing lack of profile of your leader in a key demographic by implying that Maori are just ignorant isn’t smart.

    And the troops are lining up to put their boots in too. With party members like that who needs opposition?

    No wonder more Maori are thinking WTF? about voting Labour.

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  3. Pete George (23,572 comments) says:

    Joshua Hitchcock ‏makes a good point:

    @jcphitchcock

    A point of concern for the Greens, they appear to be failing to make an impact on the Māori vote.

    That’s especially ironic – Green policies and (mostly non-Maori) MPs seem to be significantly slanted at much of the Maori demographic.

    Party Vote – All Maori voters
    Greens 7.8% (-0.2%)

    Party Vote – Maori voters on Maori roll
    Greens 7.4% (-0.5%)

    Party Vote – Maori voters on General Roll
    Greens 8.5% (+0.3%)

    Electorate Vote – Maori voters on Maori Roll
    Maori 36.3% (+4.8%)
    Labour 31.8% (-8.9%)
    Mana 8.9% (-12.2%)
    National 5.0% (+5.0%)
    NZ First 3.9% (+3.9%)
    Green 3.8% (-1.1%)

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  4. rangitoto (247 comments) says:

    They should poll general role labour party voters and see how many of them know who the labour party leader is.

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  5. Pete George (23,572 comments) says:

    rangitoto – for a fair comparison, yes, otherwise Maori % is meaningless. It may be quite normal.

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  6. krazykiwi (9,186 comments) says:

    “Latest Poll of Maori Voters”

    Great. I wonder when the latest poll of Chinese voters will be published? Or Indian? Or Australian?

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  7. wat dabney (3,769 comments) says:

    The Labour Party paid a lot of (taxpayers’) money for those Maori votes. I think they deserve a bit more for our money than a measly 33.5%.

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  8. pq (728 comments) says:

    for heavens sake Mr Farrar you can read the figures as well as I,
    again I say we require that this Nation progress, this is not a request it is a demand
    tell your boss
    NZ Nat 42% Labour 35%
    NZFirst 07%. Green 09%
    then add figure farrar,

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  9. RRM (9,924 comments) says:

    Quelle surprise on CrackerBlog as polls reveal most Maori voters CAN tell the difference between the Statesmanlike Sharples/Turia and an extreme left racist crackpot with a big waho… :-)

    (BWAV – you can use that “crackerblog” if you want, I suspect It’s right up your alley…? :-) )

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  10. tropicana (79 comments) says:

    Surely we will not be going into 2014 with National still thinking they can do it on their own. Please DPF, on behalf of sanity, can you slap a few of them around and make them see sense.

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  11. tristanb (1,127 comments) says:

    The Labour Party paid a lot of (taxpayers’) money for those Maori votes. I think they deserve a bit more for our money than a measly 33.5%.

    How do you think National feel!?

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  12. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (890 comments) says:

    It is all confirmed now Shearer will be he PM in 2014. Labour will win all seven Maori seats….

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  13. Shazzadude (529 comments) says:

    I notice that Maori-based polls over-inflate Maori Party support.

    In 2005 and 2008, the Maori Party were projected in these polls to sweep all seven seats (4 and 5 respectively). Prior to the last election, Rahui Katene was supposedly ahead in Te Tai Tonga by 10% (Labour won with a 9% margin), while Pita Sharples supposedly was trouncing Shane Jones in Tamaki Makaurau by 58% to 26% (actual margin 40% to 35% to become the most marginal Maori seat).

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