Would the Tories mind losing?

February 11th, 2013 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

Reuters reports at Stuff:

Cameron’s political future and historic legacy are on the line. He has pledged to contest the next British general election in 2015 and his own Conservative party would never forgive him if he presided over the break-up of a comprising England, , Wales and Northern Ireland.

On the contrary many Conservatives would love Scotland to leave the UK.

In 2010 The Conservatives got 1 seat out of 59 in Scotland. With Scotland they were 306 out of 650 – a minority. Without it they would be 305 out of 591 – a majority.

In October 1974 the Conservatives got 16 out of 71 in Scotland and Labour got 41. With Scotland Labour won on 319 out of 635. Without Scotland Labour would not have had a majority and the Conservatives may have been able to govern.

In February 1974 the Conservatives got 297 seats, Labour 301 out of 635. Without Scotland it would have been Conservatives 276, Labour 261 out of 564. The Conservatives would have been given first chance to govern.

In 1964 the Conservatives got 304 seats, Labour 317 out of 630. Without Scotland it would have been Conservatives 281, Labour 273 out of 559 and a Conservative Government.

Opinion polls suggest support for independence has stalled. The latest put it at 32 per cent and opposition at 47 per cent. But Cameron and politicians from other parties remain nervous.

If the economy was stronger, independence would have a better chance. But people want security when times are tough. Hence a change is unlikely.

Some Scottish friends have suggested to me the eventual shape of the UK will be as a Federation of four countries.

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15 Responses to “Would the Tories mind losing?”

  1. Barnsley Bill (983 comments) says:

    The sweaties may well be the laziest most backward race on earth but they are not completely stupid. Leaving the mothership will lead to them reverting to cannibalism within a decade. Or a mass exodus south.
    They will vote to remain firmly attached to the English tax base.
    And you can bet your last deep fried mars bar on that.

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  2. Andrei (2,657 comments) says:

    Lol the Eurocrats continue to break up the Nations of Europe into ever smaller statelets. In this case the United Kingdom is in the firing line for dismemberment lest Great Britain ever be a world leader again – highly unlikely to be sure but this will ensure it for the little grey men.

    Belgium next as it becomes Wallonia and Flanders

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  3. James Stephenson (2,180 comments) says:

    Five countries with a parliament in the Isle of Man, and we’re getting somewhere.

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  4. Alan Johnstone (1,087 comments) says:

    “On the contrary many Conservatives would love Scotland to leave the UK.”

    Whoever wrote this doesn’t understand the core beliefs and world view of leading British conservatives.

    They simply don’t think in such terms; Cameron is a unionist to his core, his family is Scottish after all. The maintenance of the United Kingdom and his place in history comes before narrow party political advantage.

    As the above figures show, it’s very rare that Scotland makes a difference in UK elections.

    There does of course need to be a solution to the WLQ; but that requires meaningful regional devolution in England.

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  5. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    Pretty much everyone north of the Watford Gap would benefit in separating themselves from the southern softies.

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  6. ChardonnayGuy (1,207 comments) says:

    Except for the paucity of Tories north of Hadrian’s Wall, due to Thatcher’s excesses? I think some of the Tories very much would like Scotland to secede.

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  7. Rodders (1,755 comments) says:

    Would any PM want to be remembered as the premier who oversaw the end of three centuries of political union?

    There are many scots who live south of the border too.

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  8. kowtow (8,487 comments) says:

    Scotland will vote to stay in. The whole independence thing is being hyped by the media.

    Cameron is destroying the Conservatives and Britain.

    His policies are so out of touch with the conservative base he has opened the way for the UKIP to take a lot of support from the the Conservatives,enough to split the right vote and let Labour in.

    Homosexual marriage, military spending cuts,Europhilia,foreign aid ,foreign interventions in non British interest areas ,failing to deal with immigration and human rightism…..
    all alienating the conservative base.

    Cameron is no Tory.

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  9. Alan Johnstone (1,087 comments) says:

    Until last week I was convinced that Scotland would vote “No” by 2 to 1; Now I’m not so sure.

    When speaking to some elderly relatives in Scotland over the weekend, people I was utterly convinced would be stonewall “No” voters, monarchist protestants. Each of them said they are voting “Yes”;

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  10. Johnboy (16,597 comments) says:

    As an intelligent Scotsman I think it’s a canny idea, but I widnae trust the Sassenachs till the baistards repatriate Mel Gibsons remains tae the Heilands laddy! :)

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  11. Snarkle (118 comments) says:

    Samuel Johnson said:
    “The noblest prospect which a Scotchman ever sees, is the high road that leads him to England!”

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  12. kowtow (8,487 comments) says:

    British governments ,both red and blue have betrayed their people.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2276686/The-rioters-kick-18-months-mayhem-shocked-Britain-just-15-200-convicted-foreigners-deported.html#comments

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  13. Disraeli Gladstone (5 comments) says:

    I see right-wing Kiwis and Australians bring this up all the time. The Tories must want Scotland to vote to leave because then they’re in perpetual power in England.

    It simply cannot be any further from the truth. Conservatives, particularly One Nation Conservatives (which most of the leading Cabinet Tories can be described as), believe in their heart and soul in the Union. Labour and the Liberal Democrats will argue that it makes sense to remain together, to pool together resources and power to be a strong country. They use reason. Conservatives and the Union, it’s more of a heart issue. It’s Britain. Britain shouldn’t be split up.

    To say:

    “On the contrary many Conservatives would love Scotland to leave the UK.”

    Is just horribly misinformed.

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  14. BlairM (2,339 comments) says:

    Except for the paucity of Tories north of Hadrian’s Wall, due to Thatcher’s excesses?

    Conservative Party decline in Scotland was not necessarily related to Thatcher. The Tories actually increased their representation there in 1992. It was only in 1997 when they lost all their seats.

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  15. ChardonnayGuy (1,207 comments) says:

    Which is probably because Major was seen as representing a resiling from some of the Leaderene’s more odious policies. Incidentally, Major backs Cameron on marriage equality. Always had a soft spot for the bloke myself. It’s just unfortunate that he had to deal with a severe financial mess and Thatcherite and Eurosceptic insurgency and disloyalty while in office.

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