Public Polls February 2013
March 3rd, 2013 at 4:25 pm by David Farrar
The graph above shows the average of all the public polls since the 2011 election. Have just published Curia’s monthly newsletter:
February saw just five political polls published in New Zealand – one each from Colmar Brunton, Reid Research and Ipsos and two Roy Morgan polls.
The average of the public polls has National 14% ahead of Labour – the same as January. The seat projection is centre-right 61 seats, centre-left 57.
Australia has Labour and Gillard in trouble. The Coalition lead by 9% to 10% and for the first time Tony Abbott has overtaken Julia Gillard as Preferred Prime Minister.
In the United States Barack Obama’s approval rating is at +8%, and the country direction is -23%. The generic congressional poll average has the Democrats 3% ahead of the Republicans.
In the UK the Conservatives are now 11% behind Labour. They came third in the recent Eastleigh by-election. The Lib Dems retained the seat but the UK Independence Party came second.
In Canada the Conservatives are on 32%, NDP 28% and Liberals 25%.
The normal two tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment and head of government approval sentiment for the five countries. New Zealand continues to top both by considerable margins.
We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on Hekia Parata, asset sales, four year term, Christchurch jobs, David Bain, same sex marriage, adoption plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.
The full newsletter is only available by e-mail. If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.
March 3rd, 2013 at 6:00 pm
“……In Canada the Conservatives are on 32%, NDP 28% and Liberals 25%…..”
So much for liberal policy being a good thing……
……you would think that the ‘celebration’ of ‘diversity’, ‘equality’, ‘tolerance’, ect would be reflected in the polls.
Clearly liberal policy is a backward step for Canadian society,……or going by the polls……what’s left of it!
Vote:March 3rd, 2013 at 6:17 pm
Canada has being going backward since Diefenbaker cancelled the Avro CF-105 Arrow!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avro_Canada_CF-105_Arrow
Vote:March 3rd, 2013 at 6:22 pm
Harriet, You do realise the NDP is far more left-wing than the liberals, in fact it’s an outright socialist party. So according to these poll numbers it’s actually the conservatives in the minority. If you read their policy statements the NDP sound very much like the Greens here, but with 28% of the vote instead of 11%.
Vote:March 3rd, 2013 at 7:18 pm
I am subscribed to the curia newsletters (and have the previous months in my inbox), but have not received the latest one, I use gmail, nothing in spam. Anyone else not get it?
Vote:March 3rd, 2013 at 7:55 pm
So the polls show that there has been little if any change in voting patterns since the election Nov 2011. We are about 21 months from the next election in November 2014. It seems that New Zealanders are hard to please
The National government has rescued New Zealand from the worst recession in living memory and quietly gone about building a brighter future.
•After-tax wages up 20 per cent since 2008 – almost twice the inflation rate.
•In 2012, our economy grew faster than at any time since 2007.
•New Zealand currently has the lowest inflation rate since 1999 – the everyday cost of living is increasing at its slowest rate in 13 years.
•Record low interest rates: a family with $200,000 mortgage is $200 a week better off.
•Households’ disposable income is up by almost a third since 2008.
•All rates of Superannuation have increased since 2008 – the married rate is up by $194, which is 22 per cent higher than April 2008.
•65,000 net new jobs in our economy over the past 3 years.
•Personal income tax cuts across the board have left the average family $25 better off each week.
•Three-quarters of income earners pay no more than 17.5 per cent tax.
•New Zealanders are saving more, with positive household savings rates for the first time in a decade.
•Working for Families payments increased by 5 per cent on 1 April 2012, meaning higher payments for most families.
•$400 million more for health this year, on top of $1.5 billion for health in the past four years.
•35,000 more elective operations provided than in 2008, including almost 40,000 more operations for seniors during this time.
•All patients ready for radiation or chemotherapy treatment receive this within four weeks – the international gold standard.
•92 per cent of emergency patients are seen, treated, or discharged within six hours –compared with only 80 per cent in 2009.
•93 per cent of under-two year olds fully immunised – up from just 76 per cent in 2007.
•More frontline staff in the public health service under National – 1000 extra doctors and 2000 more nurses on the frontline.
•1,800 doctors, nurses, and midwives signed up to work in hard-to-staff areas and specialities under National’s voluntary bonding scheme.
•Funding for 56,000 more WellChild visits.
•Free visits to the doctor anytime of the day or night for 90 per cent of under-sixes.
•$54 million to boost maternity services to support new parents.
•PlunketLine fully-funded 24 hours a day, seven days a week, to support new parents – 33,000 additional calls made by parents
•600 more frontline police.
•Lowest crime rate in 30 years
•3000 fewer victims of crime in the past year
•4000 crime victims getting better support services
•$50 offender levy is funding 13 support services for victims
•6000 families protected by police safety orders
•Tougher sentences for crimes against children.
•Less stress on victims through extended maximum intervals between parole hearings.
•Increased search powers for Corrections officers meaning more contraband being confiscated in prison.
•Since 2008 only 4.8 per cent of prisoners are testing positively for drugs down from 13 per cent.
•Prison escapes and positive random drug tests are at the lowest ever levels.
•Over $135 million in cannabis seized by Police in a major crack down on criminals and the proceeds of crime.
•Over 3000 prisoners in on-the-job training and a 45 per cent rise in educational credits gained by prisoners.
•Over the past 12 months, our youth justice reforms halved the number of youth needing to be held in secure units.
•3,144 prisoners in Release to Work programmes, the most ever, helping to reduce reoffending and protect communities.
•34 per cent increase in ECE funding since 2008.
•National’s total investment in early childhood education and schooling is $9.6 billion for 2012/13.
•3500 more ECE places targeted at vulnerable children who are missing out, but would benefit the most.
•20 hours free Early Childhood Education (ECE) maintained for our youngest and most vulnerable children, and we extended this to cover Play Centres and Kōhanga Reo.
•Over 1,000 new ECE places for vulnerable children in areas of high need.
•$7600 paid per child enrolled in ECE – more per child than at any other level of their education.
•On average, over 70 per cent of kids reached National Standards. Measuring progress in reading, writing, and maths, and reporting results to parents.
•70 per cent of school leavers achieving NCEA level 2, up from 65 per cent in 2008. Our target is 85 per cent in 2017.
•410,000 students across New Zealand with access to faster broadband by July 2013.
•$60 million to help stop bullying in schools through a Positive Behaviour for Learning Action Plan.
•$18.6 million spent to put nurses into decile 3 secondary schools and specially trained youth workers in selected low decile secondary schools.
•Three new teen parent units set-up to help young mothers stay engaged in education.
•2000 more trades training places, through 11 new Trades Acade•12,000 more tertiary places.
•More investment in engineering, science, and research-led learning in institutions.
•$20 million in overdue student loans collected so far.
•97.7 per cent of schools will receive ultra-fast broadband by 2016.
•99.9 per cent of students will be connected to ultra-fast broadband by 2016
•Almost 13,000 fees-free youth guarantee places next year, in trades and service academies, and polytechs.
•Four times as many adult students gaining literacy and numeracy skills.
.5 billion to help rebuild Christchurch.
•$1 billion of building work consented in past 6-months in greater Christchurch.
•25,000 homes repaired by EQC so far.
•Every Christchurch home now zoned – 181,000 zoned green.
•Two-thirds of red-zoned property owners settled with the Crown.
•80% of CBD demolition work completed.
•Major – and permanent – infrastructure repair projects underway: $2.2 billion to be spent on infrastructure repair works with $73 million spent already.
•Implemented the $200 million wage support and job loss package to assist 63,000 Cantabrians and their families.
•$6.8 million to help earthquake-affected Canterbury businesses get back on their feet.
•$10 million for social service agencies and c•Ensuring New Zealanders are ready with the skills needed for the long-term rebuild through the $42 million, 1500 place Skills for Canterbury programme.
•$2 million Social Housing Unit funding to provide 25 new housing units for vulnerable people living in Christchurch.
ounselling support for Cantabrians rebuilding their lives.
•Over 1,100 families provided with Temporary Accommodation Assistance.
•Built a new $20 million temporary stadium at the site of Rugby League Park in Addington, giving Cantabrians the chance to enjoy major sporting and music events again.
Give this track record., why would anyone vote for the collection of losers who claim to be an alternative government?
Vote:March 3rd, 2013 at 8:57 pm
But the National government is “hands off” Fisiani. David Shearer told me.
Vote:March 3rd, 2013 at 9:02 pm
“….Give this track record., why would anyone vote for the collection of losers who claim to be an alternative government?…’
Because they promise to take more money from us and give more money to them.
Vote:March 3rd, 2013 at 9:06 pm
The country will go the dogs under a Labour-Luddites coalition. It could be a monumental catastrophe, a meltdown.
Vote:March 3rd, 2013 at 9:11 pm
Fisiani – because losers who are too stupid to see these benefits want losers to represent them. Most vote they way their parents and grand parents did. If it were not for the fact that National is Blue, Labour Red and The Greens Green, most would not be able to read the voting paper to tick the right box.
Vote:March 4th, 2013 at 1:57 am
National has no coalition partners. It will lose the next election.
Vote:March 4th, 2013 at 8:40 am
Don’t believe the hype!
Vote:March 4th, 2013 at 8:53 am
And Labour has too many, all far too left wing, and one of them is too big with respect to Labour.
So floating centre voters are less inclined to vote Labour, because they see it as a vote for the Greens (and Hone Harawera, and Winston Peters).
Vote:March 4th, 2013 at 9:58 am
Well done Fisiani !!!! This is exactly the information that needs to be put out there. It must have taken some time and effort to put that together –you next challenge is to get it printed in a MSM newspaper. I would also send a copy to John Campbell c/- TV3. On the flip side Mike Hosking on the ZB network would have a field day with it.
Vote:March 4th, 2013 at 10:38 am
The field day would be in ripping it to shreds Ross12
Vote:March 4th, 2013 at 10:45 am
“The field day would be in ripping it to shreds”
I’d like to see you try BWAV, because I really don’t think you’re as smart as you think you are. You’ll struggle to come up with anything but insults, maybe a few unsubstantiated claims, but nothing that would count as ‘ripping it to shreds’ except in your own empty head.
Vote:March 4th, 2013 at 10:54 am
Fisiana,
Vote:I would just make the point that the waiting time for something like ,say , a hip replacement, is far too long. Not that I am saying it would be any quicker under any other government.
March 4th, 2013 at 11:41 am
Pffff RightNow….got better things to do than fact check right wing propaganda.
But I bet you’d be a gullible dumfuck and believe all the spin and bullshit fisiani just posted eh?
Vote:March 4th, 2013 at 12:09 pm
BWAV -care to point out ANY spin or bullshit in my posting all of which I easily obtained from http://www.national.org.nz
Vote:March 4th, 2013 at 1:57 pm
You don’t read too well huh?
Vote:March 4th, 2013 at 7:51 pm
BWV- you just got pawned.
Vote: