Will there be an eighth Maori seat?

March 22nd, 2013 at 10:00 am by David Farrar

The Maori Electoral Option will be underway soon. If you have registered on the electoral roll as being of Maori descent, you can decide whether to enrol on the General Roll or Maori Roll during the option run after each census. Once you do decide, you can’t change until the next option.

The higher the proportion of Maori who decide to enrol on the Maori roll, the more there will be. Over the years they have gone from four to seven. It has remained at seven after the 2001 and 2006 censuses.

Some Maori decide to go on the Maori roll to boost the number of seats. Some may decide on the basis of which electorate they wish to vote in. They may prefer to vote in a marginal general seat where their vote can have more impact than say a safe Maori seat.

Research has shown attitudes are very different amongst Maori on the general roll and Maori on the Maori roll. In a very general sense, Maori on the Maori roll tend to identify foremost as Maori while Maori on the general roll tend to be more self-identifying as New Zealanders who happen to have some Maori descent. That far from applies to all, but previous research has shown this. Also the issues of importance vary too. Maori on Maori roll are more likely to cite Treaty issues as important while Maori on the general roll are more likely to cite jobs, economy etc.

Now we won’t know for sure how many Maori seats there will be for the 2014 election until we get both the census results and the results. Let’s look at what the calculations were in 2006.

First of all the South Island electoral quota is calculated and that was 57,562. The SI general electoral population was 920,999 and you divide it by 16.

The estimated Maori electoral population is divided by the SI quota to calculate the number of seats. It was 417,081 which means the quota for each Maori seat was 59,583. The fact it is higher than the SI quota makes it more likely there will be an eight seat in 2014 if more Maori transfer over.

How many would have to have been in the Maori electoral population in 2006 to get an 8th seat? In 2006 they would have needed 432,000 in the Maori electoral population. That means an extra 3.5% would have been needed or an extra 15,000.

The Maori electoral population is calculated on the basis of the total number of ordinarily resident persons of New Zealand Maori descent as determined by the census multiplied by the proportion of Maori who choose to go on the Maori roll.

from 2001 to 2006 the numbers on the Māori roll increased from 188,487 to reach 244,121. and the numbers of Maori on the general roll increased from 151,931 to 178,139. This means the proportion on the Maori roll increased from 55.4% to 57.8%.

The Maori descent population increased from 671,293 to 721,431 – a 7.5% increase. This means the Maori electoral population was in 2001 671,293 x 55.4% = 371,690 and 2006 721,431 x 57.8% = 417,081.

If the percentage who went on the Maori roll had been 60% instead of 57.8% then there would have been an eight seat.

It is hard to project what will happen this time as it will depend both on the growth rate of the Maori population to the non-Maori population and also how many Maori change their roll. But based on the change from 2001 to 2006, it looks like we could well see an 8th seat in 2014.  The proportion on the Maori roll increased 2.4% last time and they only need 2.2% transfer to get an 8th seat. However that does depend on the overall growth in the Maori population also since 2006.

If there was an iPredict stock on there being an 8th Maori seat I’d buy stock up to around 55c.

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42 Responses to “Will there be an eighth Maori seat?”

  1. gazzmaniac (2,317 comments) says:

    What hasn’t been taken into account in this post is the reduction in South Island population (specifically in Christchurch) because of the earthquake. I’d say it’s almost certain, but there will also likely be a few more North Island seats.
    It would be great if there were so many electoral seats in parliament to make MMP all but useless.

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  2. Redbaiter (7,642 comments) says:

    National’s back tracking on Maori seats has been disgraceful. As bad as their about face on global warming.

    Headline from 2008-

    National to dump Maori seats in 2014

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10534713

    National and John Key are useless.

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  3. anonymouse (695 comments) says:

    The other big question to come out of the census will be how many more general seats in the North Island will we get,

    Given the displacement in Christchurch, ( and hence a potentially lower South Island population) I think that we could see a number of additional general seats , probably at least 1 maybe even 2 or 3,

    So the number of List MPs is slowly being whittled away, we began with 60, and now have only 50 and they fall every census

    @gazzmaniac, oops snap

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  4. Scott (1,710 comments) says:

    Just remind me why we have Maori seats at all? Doesn’t everybody in New Zealand have full protection under the law? Doesn’t everybody have the same rights as everybody else? Why does a section of the population need their own special seats based on racial descent?
    It’s getting onto 200 years since the signing of the treaty of Waitangi. Wouldn’t it be good for us to all move forward together as New Zealanders?

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  5. RRM (9,478 comments) says:

    Scott

    There is no reason. It is something those cheeky darkies do solely because they know it pisses you off. ;-)

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  6. Redbaiter (7,642 comments) says:

    National are too busy redefining marriage to worry about keeping their promises on the Maori seats.

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  7. Tristan (63 comments) says:

    spooky you and Graeme drinking coffee together or something?

    http://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/legal-beagle-a-little-known-story-of-the/?p=282804#post282804

    very interesting read on the imputation of maori decadency

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  8. Chuck Bird (4,686 comments) says:

    National’s back tracking on Maori seats has been disgraceful. As bad as their about face on global warming.
    Headline from 2008-

    And their about face on the anti-parental authority legislation and introducing PC legislation which Key said was unlikely to happen under National.

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  9. Graeme Edgeler (3,268 comments) says:

    spooky you and Graeme drinking coffee together or something?

    It’s the last working day before the Māori Option starts, seems a natural time to post on it. I suspect my post had a rather longer gestation, however!

    very interesting read on the imputation of maori decadency

    That’s quite a funny typo :-)

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  10. Graeme Edgeler (3,268 comments) says:

    So the number of List MPs is slowly being whittled away, we began with 60, and now have only 50 and they fall every census

    We began with 55 list seats (the 1996 election had 60 general seats and 5 Māori seats).

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  11. wiseowl (763 comments) says:

    Maybe Dame Susan Devoy could rule on the need for race based seats?

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  12. Graeme Edgeler (3,268 comments) says:

    Ha!

    Just noticed that one of the automatically generated “related posts” is to your prediction for the last Māori Option. It seems you were more confident of an increase then than you are now.

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  13. Judith (7,679 comments) says:

    I don’t have an opinion the Maori seats except that I have deliberately not allowed myself to develop one beyond it being a decision that only those who associate themselves most with Maori should make

    For a pakeha is it scary ground to tread unless you really know what you are talking about. I was bought up to believe that expertise is gained through the partnership of knowledge and experience – so I am excluded by that alone.

    I accept the argument that Maori seats is ‘separatist’ but I also acknowledge the uniqueness of their position, and the requirement regard their special place in NZ both historical and current. I especially acknowledge the necessity to have specific legislation to protect their interests – interests that most pakeha do not understand, and therefore require the guidance from Maori themselves, in order to address their needs.

    How those interests can best be protected is for Maori to decide. How they are protected is for government to decide in partnership with Maori.

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  14. artemisia (209 comments) says:

    Tariana Turia – “I’ve always supported the growing of our population, the growing of our hapu and iwi and so I’m certainly not one who’s ever believed that we should be controlling people’s fertility.”

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10804502

    Nothing to do with growing the number of separatist seats, much?

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  15. Redbaiter (7,642 comments) says:

    “I accept the argument that Maori seats is ‘separatist’ but I also acknowledge the uniqueness of their position, and the requirement regard their special place in NZ both historical and current.”

    Anyone who doesn’t have an opinion on separatism is showing contempt for democracy.

    As for their “special place”– how nauseating.

    That’s what the Aryans said too.

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  16. s.russell (1,565 comments) says:

    The formula for setting the number of Maori seats is to divide the Maori Electoral Population by the SI general quota. In 2006 the result of that was 7.25, so the number was rounded down to 7. It will therefore take only a small increase (to7.5) to create an eighth seat.

    While the proportion of Maori descent Kiwis choosing the Maori roll has been steadily increasing, I suspect that diminishing returns has set in – each increase is smaller than the last. But it won”t take a big shift to make the difference.

    However, the Maori population is growing faster than the non-Maori population and I suspect that this alone will be enough to reach the tipping point.

    Accordingly, I would be very surprised if there are not to be eight Maori seats for the next election. I’d rate it a 90% probability at least.

    Incidentally, an interesting quirk of the 2006 redistribution is that while NI population growth since 2001 was faster than SI population growth, the difference was NOT ENOUGH for an extra NI seat. The reason we got an extra NI seat then was only because of a big shift of South Island Maori to the Maori roll (much bigger than in the NI). This reduced the SI general electorate quota just enough that the NI needed an extra seat to keep the quotas [nearly] matching.

    I am also confident that there will be another NI seat this time. Maybe two. But the earthquake effect may be smaller than some people above seem to imagine. Until the quake there was again only a small difference between NI and SI population growth rates. The most recent Stats NZ guesses suggest that while the Chch population took a dent, a) it may have subsequently bounced back somewhat, and b) many of the departees went elsewhere in the SI, not to the NI.

    The census will reveal all of course. But I think the prospect of three new NI seats is a stretch.

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  17. Judith (7,679 comments) says:

    Redbaiter (2,454) Says:
    March 22nd, 2013 at 11:12 am
    ———————————

    I didn’t say I don’t have an opinion on separatism did I – I said I accept that Maori seats is ‘separatist’ – implying I didn’t like that, but I accept their unique position – which like it or not they do have. I don’t know if Maori seats is an efficient method of addressing the requirements of their unique position – I don’t like separatism, but it is not up to me to decide what a better form of representation would be, because I do not understand their needs. I think that is an honest statement – and quite frankly its one even you should make. If you don’t understand their unique needs, then don’t start telling them what they should do.

    I love Maori Culture. I’ve stood in the cold wet English weather and cried tears of pride when a bunch of Kiwi’s have stood up and done the Haka. I associate it with ‘home’. Maori are part of that home – and have been long before my ancestors arrived here. I am not saying they are superior (like your Aryan argument – which incidently is boring), I am saying they are a unique but endangered culture that requires protection and special treatment to survive. I for one are happy to listen to them and learn from them – I hope they find consensus among their people to find a way forward that would be supported by all Kiwis and enable them to retain their importance to New Zealand.

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  18. krazykiwi (9,189 comments) says:

    Scrap the Maori seats. They are a racist construct, and have no place in 21st century New Zealand.

    Citizenship, not ethnicity, is the currently of belonging.

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  19. s.russell (1,565 comments) says:

    Moving along, the next thing to consider is how extra seats would affect the boundaries.

    Boundary changes in the Maori seats can be tricky to predict because the Representation Commission considers iwi affiliations as well as geography (and I have no expertise in that regard).

    However, geography does constrain matters a good deal. In the event an eighth seat is created:

    Te Tai Tokerau (Hone Harawira) would simply lose an eighth or so out of its south end (West Auckland and North Shore)
    Tamaki Makaurau (Pita Sharples) would gain what Te Tai Tokerau loses and lose a big chunk of South Auckland (about a quarter of the existing electorate).
    Hauraki-Waikato (Nanaia Mahuta) would gain all that in turn and lose about 3/8 of its existing population in the south. That means most of Waikato, so it will become a quite different electorate to what it is now, and Mahuta may choose to switch to whatever new electorate is created in the south.
    Te Tai Tonga (Rino Tirakatene) presently covers all of the SI plus Wellington City and part of Hutt. It will lose an eighth in those later areas and may become just the SI.

    What happens in the central NI is harder to pick. My best guess is:
    Ikaroa-Rawhiti (Parekura Horomia) loses the Hutt Valley and southern Wairarapa.
    Te Tai Hauauru (Tariana Turia) gains that territory from Ikaroa-Rawhiti and loses a quarter of its existing population from the north end (south Waikato / King Country)
    Waiariki (Te Ururua Flavell) loses its southern end around Lake Taupo.
    A new electorate would then come into being covering Waikato, Taupo, and the King Country. Nanaia Mahuta would probably seek this electorate, creating a vacant seat in the South Auclkland/Counties/maybe Coromandel area.

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  20. dime (9,472 comments) says:

    Maori seats are very important. Without them maori wouldnt be thriving like they are now….

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  21. s.russell (1,565 comments) says:

    Continuing boundary speculation….

    If there is ONE new NI seat then it will be in Auckland (of course). The new seat would be the Mt Roskill/Hillsborough/Onehunga/One Tree Hill area with the Mt Roskill electorate making a big shuffle to the west and Maungakiekie a big shuffle southeast into Otahuhu, with a whole cascade of lesser shifts following on from there.

    Wellington would see little change, but there would be some significant changes in the central NI. The only strong growth areas are around Hamilton and Tauranga, so electorates here would squeeze up, while those to the south would ripple northward – creating some very awkward boundaries along the way I suspect.

    I have not yest given much thought to what would happen if there are to be TWO new NI seats, but that would relieve some of the pressure in the central NI. Boundary changes would be more dramatic in West and South Auckland/Counties/Waikato (where there would be new seats) but a little less drastic in central Auckland.

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  22. Redbaiter (7,642 comments) says:

    “I love Maori Culture. I’ve stood in the cold wet English weather and cried tears of pride when a bunch of Kiwi’s have stood up and done the Haka.”

    I think it is embarrassing and over done trend that should never have started. And wouldn’t have if our kids were not being indoctrinated in a politically corrupt education system by wet liberal white ants like you.

    A savage and depraved war dance from a time of murder and violence and cannibalism has become a NZ cultural icon and idiots like you cheer such an event?

    FFS..!!!

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  23. RRM (9,478 comments) says:

    Q: What do you get when a White Ant stands on a Boilerplate?

    A: General Debate, 22nd March 2013.

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  24. RRM (9,478 comments) says:

    The Haka is a savage war dance but it’s what we have.

    La Marseillaise is (IMHO) the greatest national anthem when content, musical style and the interworking of the two are taken into account. If you read the words of that, they’re not very nice either…

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  25. Manolo (13,396 comments) says:

    Simple. No, we do not need more racist Maori seats.

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  26. Viking2 (11,147 comments) says:

    Pity Key didn’t keep his promise on this one and get rid of the racist seats.

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  27. Grizz (500 comments) says:

    In a FFP environment, the Maori seats is a type of Gerrymandering. During the last electoral enrolments almost half of people of Maori heritage opted out. In effect the Maori seats remove a block of left wing special interest groups from the general electorates, distorting the political demographic of each electorate. Furthermore, if you are a Maori and do not want to be represented by the likely local Maori MP you are more likely to choose to go on the general roll. However such a choice does not exist for those non-Maori voters.

    In effect the left voting block win landslides in all Maori seats (Maori, Labour, Mana, it probably does not matter). National on the other hand can spread their voters over a vast number of electorates. With a large left wing voting block removed they have a greater chance of picking up seats with modest majorities. This is most pronounced in places like Hamilton East, East Coast and Northland.

    Of course MMP should balance things out. However it does not completely. Maori electorates have poor turnouts. Approx 2/3 of a general electorate. (why is this: apathy?, likely winner a forgone conclusion?) This has created overhang, particularly if a Maori or Mana party candidate wins the seat. Note, Labour winning Te Tai Tonga last election reduced potential overhang from 2 to 1 and ultimately allows National to govern.

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  28. OneTrack (2,621 comments) says:

    Judith “I am not saying they are superior (like your Aryan argument – which incidently is boring), I am saying they are a unique but endangered culture that requires protection and special treatment to survive”

    And what does that have to do with having apartheid seats in parliament?

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  29. Grizz (500 comments) says:

    DPF, you calculations are based on population as a whole. Surely only those of voting age should count. Those under 18 cannot choose which roll they are enrolled in.

    [DPF: The law is based on total population. I believe ti should be based on adult population]

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  30. Longknives (4,471 comments) says:

    “I love Maori Culture. I’ve stood in the cold wet English weather and cried tears of pride when a bunch of Kiwi’s have stood up and done the Haka. I associate it with ‘home’. Maori are part of that home – and have been long before my ancestors arrived here”

    “Tears of Pride”??
    I think I just puked in my mouth.

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  31. s.russell (1,565 comments) says:

    Grizz,
    Electorate boundaries (Maori and general) are based on resident population, regardless of age.
    Children are assigned to Maori or general electoral populations in the same proportion as adults choose the Maori vs general rolls.

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  32. Grizz (500 comments) says:

    DPF, Is the South Island General electorate population obtained from South Island total poulation – South island Maori electorate population?

    [DPF: Yes]

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  33. Graeme Edgeler (3,268 comments) says:

    Grizz – yes.
    (Noting that people of Maori descent who enrol on the general roll are included in the general electoral population, not the Maori electoral population)

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  34. Graeme2 (102 comments) says:

    Under the current MMP structure the continuance of these race based seats puts way to much power into the hands of a small minority. Maori party got only 1.7% of the vote last time but are the tail wagging the National dog. Of course if National actually developed a backbone and honoured their promises they would follow through and get rid of the Maori seats.

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  35. kowtow (7,653 comments) says:

    This parliament is obsessed with “equality. ”

    That being the case I want European seats,based on the number of Europeans in the electorate. Same for the growing Chinese popualtion.

    After all equality is the highest virtue of progressivism.

    As to the argument thst it’s up to Maoris to decide the future of their racist seats ,I say bollocks. Parliament created them.Parliament can abolish them.If parliament can do away with the traditional notion of marriage ,it can do away with these racist seats.

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  36. landoftime (35 comments) says:

    I have an identity crisis – being half and half. So I every time I get the option to switch rolls – I do. I am currently on the Maori roll so this time I will switch to the general. Mum and dad always tease me. My brother is firmly on the Maori roll and my sister is firmly on the general roll. I am the only one that roll-hops every time. All my life people have always been wanting to choose between been Maori and being Pakeha. I am both. But it’s hard to deter people from labels.

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  37. Steve (North Shore) (4,500 comments) says:

    How many can call themselves true Moari? Check the bloodline.
    There are many try hard Moaris who think they should be Moari just because they had a little bit of Moari in them once

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  38. itstricky (1,579 comments) says:

    There are some sad sad sad individuals here. Why hack down someone else’s culture just because you aren’t part of it yourself? Especially when that is the only one of the unique features this country has?

    Who cares if the current electorate of Maori seats is 1/32th Maori? At least they are keeping the culture alive.

    Perhaps one should get out and enjoy the world and human interaction a bit, instead of writing thousands of degenerative comments on Kiwiblog.

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  39. SPC (5,397 comments) says:

    I prefer the scenario where Maori can be on both the general roll and also the Maori electoral roll. Enrolling where they live as the rest of us do and also being able to enrol on the Maori electorates as well.

    Any double voting would not influence electoral outcomes much given they would only vote once on the party list determining ultimate party allocation under MMP.

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  40. kowtow (7,653 comments) says:

    At least they are keeping their culture alive

    No they’re not. The rest of New Zealand is ,through our taxes. That’s the problem. They can have all the culture and any culture they like. But it’s not mine and I don’t want to pay for it.

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  41. PhilP (158 comments) says:

    @ Grizz
    “Those under 18 cannot choose which roll they are enrolled in”.

    Wrong. Provisional enrolment begins at 17 and these provisional electors also get to choose which roll to
    be on during the MEO period.

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  42. itstricky (1,579 comments) says:

    They can have all the culture and any culture they like. But it’s not mine and I don’t want to pay for it.

    Like I said. A lot of sad people out there. Your self centred comments make me feel a bit of pity for you really, rather than anything else.

    Perhaps, if you don’t like one putting some of your “whine whine whine my hard earned tax dollar whine whine whine life is so tough whine whine whine worked so hard all my life and people aren’t doing what I think they should whine whine whine” towards one of the things that makes NZ unique, you should move to Australia. Lots of people are doing it. And they don’t have a “whine whine whine problem” with indigenous culture there.

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