Migrant flows

May 31st, 2013 at 7:00 am by David Farrar

at BNZ writes:

For your guide, now that debate about soaring and the insular side of Kiwis is starting to be revealed again, here are the numbers showing who the migrants are. 

Winston and others would have you believe they are mainly Chinese. The actual figures for the last year:

  • Kiwis returning 28%
  • UK 10.1%
  • 8.9%
  • India 7.0%
  • Australia 6.4%
  • US 2.9%

So only 1 in 11 people migrating to NZ are Chinese.

Also of interest is the change, from the previous year. Here’s the change:

  • France +16.4%
  • Australia +12.7%
  • Kiwis +8.3%
  • China +3.2%
  • Germany +2.2%

Alexander notes:

What I want to highlight is this. The gross inflow of migrants to New Zealand has risen by 3,410 or 4.1% in the past year. Pure Kiwis account for 1,870 or 55% of that change, Chinese account for 7% of that change – hence the idea that there is a soaring Chinese inflow driving the Auckland housing market is not accurate. 

But they make a convenient scapegoat.

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36 Responses to “Migrant flows”

  1. Kea (12,041 comments) says:

    I was surprised to see the percentage of Indians is near the same as Chinese. It is good to have hard working law abiding folk moving here. Not to mention how dreary our food choices would be without the influence of these folk.

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  2. toms (299 comments) says:

    I hear half the young people of Spain and Italy could be interested in a job (any job) downunder… We should be making more of an effort to get them, someone has to pay for all those pensions in ten years. The other great thing about the Spanish especially is if we get the right ones, we’ll be importing a bunch of fiery socialists who will really pep things up.

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  3. duggledog (1,505 comments) says:

    Agree Kea. And eventually the numbers accumulate, a critical mass is reached and NZ is a socialist paradise no more.

    8.9% Chinese – what about other Asian countries? Joe Average on the street lumps them all together. What is the total percentage of Asians?

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  4. duggledog (1,505 comments) says:

    Toms, where to begin.

    You are either one of those quaint kiwis who know everything yet have never travelled, or you have travelled and kept your eyes tightly shut.

    There is a reason Spain is buggered. ‘Manana’, or ‘worry about it tomorrow’

    Mind you, you could be right. Bring some Spaniards over and settle them in Ngapuhi country. Manana the root word for Mana!!

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  5. SHG (310 comments) says:

    But… what if the Kiwis returning to New Zealand… are ASIANS???

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  6. KiwiGreg (3,234 comments) says:

    What is a “pure kiwi”?

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  7. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    KiwiGreg (2,810) Says:
    May 31st, 2013 at 7:24 am
    What is a “pure kiwi”?
    ———————

    Was just thinking the same thing. I expect it is open to definition – perhaps a ‘non-smoking, non-drinking, a-sexual person.

    How many generations of ancestors born in New Zealand would it take to be ‘pure’ – a concept we could definitely have fun with.

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  8. Simon (694 comments) says:

    Tony Alexander. FFS. Migrant flows don’t explain the raising housing prices. Tones talks about the housing bubble. Can he make the connection that migrants aint causing the housing bubble.? No… no….. no cant quiet make it Tone.

    Love his Housing cycle comments. No financial companies to finance the bubble like last time. That’s right Tone. When it all comes crashing down when the RBNZ stops printing money it’s the Trading Banks that will get wiped out. Not the finance companies like last time.

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  9. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    I suspect the figures derive from personal interpretation – data collected from either passports or from how those people consider their own ethnicity. As the point has been made – it cannot be from physical appearance – given that ‘Kiwis’ do not have any unique specific physical attributes (we do of course have non-physical attributes that are unique! :-) IF you have to ask, then you aren’t Kiwi!)

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  10. duggledog (1,505 comments) says:

    I recall Don Brash being asked to describe what exactly was an ‘ordinary hard working New Zealander’ during a leaders debate. He couldn’t answer that. Neither can I.

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  11. James Stephenson (2,145 comments) says:

    The other great thing about the Spanish especially is if we get the right ones, we’ll be importing a bunch of fiery socialists passionate footballers who will really pep things up.

    FIFY :D, although DPF is probably more interested in how hot the girls are…

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  12. Harriet (4,794 comments) says:

    O.K …..so are Asian students migrants?

    And do resident and non-resident Asians buy houses?…..by the dozen?…and then rent them out to students?….and then sell the houses into a higher housing bubble?

    They do.

    And Winston knows it.

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  13. kowtow (8,186 comments) says:

    The other great thing about the Spanish especially is if we get the right ones,we’ll be importing a bunch of passionate Catholic Nationalists who aren’t afraid to take on socialists and communists.

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  14. Mobile Michael (443 comments) says:

    Half the young people of Italy and Spain? As long it is *that* half I say send them all over ;-)

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  15. All_on_Red (1,559 comments) says:

    Toms
    “we’ll be importing a bunch of fiery socialists”
    So how is that socialism thingy working out for Spain and Europe then? hmm, 50% unemployment for those under 25 and 25% across the board. I guess its not working in every sense of the phrase.
    So much for “green” jobs too. What an expensive fiasco. Will we see Wussell cite Spain as an example of a successful “green” economy? Doubt it, he’s too much of a deceiver.
    The figures show that we are doing things right in NZ. Could be better of course but we are ok.

    I think a “real” NZer has to have been here for a few generations. Otherwise you are still imbued with the cultural influence from where you came. I have friends who are third generation but ethnically Chinese and they certainly are “real” kiwis. I think you have to been here long enough to have gained that connection to the land and as part of that (dare I say) to have made connection and understanding with Tangata Whenua. I grew up with many friends from our local hapu and still have good memories of sliding on cabbage tree leaves down hills,horse riding, fishing, shooting etc and generally larking about on the beaches, rivers and hills at home with them. The other thing is that those of us who are fifth and sixth generation do still have that connection to the pioneering spirit which gives us that “can do” attitude which kiwis are famous for all over the world.

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  16. Odakyu-sen (577 comments) says:

    What is a “pure kiwi”?

    Here goes.

    A “pure” Kiwi is someone who doesn’t experience feelings of homesickness when they visit the “specialty” or “international” sections at the supermarket.
    A “pure” Kiwi is someone who doesn’t have relatives send over DVDs with copies of certain TV shows we don’t have in NZ.
    A “pure” Kiwi is someone who doesn’t worry about relocating their elderly parents into NZ.

    A “pure” Kiwi should be someone who doesn’t suffer from “cultural cringe.”
    A “pure” Kiwi should be someone who wants to live permanently in NZ.

    A “pure” Kiwi is someone who hopes their children will grow up and marry another New Zealander.
    A “pure” Kiwi is someone who wants to be buried in NZ.

    Feel free to add to this list ;-)

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  17. kowtow (8,186 comments) says:

    India is 20% Muslim.Potential trouble there. Needs discussing.

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  18. Ultima (29 comments) says:

    @Odakyu-sen

    Excellent!

    I’ll add, a pure kiwi is someone who doesn’t say in my …

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  19. hj (6,855 comments) says:

    Kea
    It is good to have hard working law abiding folk moving here. Not to mention how dreary our food choices would be without the influence of these folk.
    ……
    food choice is here now and has need since the 1990’s.

    “hard working”
    there is a depiction as the economy as a system where people come and crank a handle and everyone benefits from that. It ignores competion for housing and jobs. So what if an Asian immigrant beats a Kiwi and gets a job at the local chemist. The kiwi kid may have been putting too much time into rugby but been 100% capable?

    Toms:
    I hear half the young people of Spain and Italy could be interested in a job (any job) downunder… *We should be making more of an effort to get them, someone has to pay for all those pensions in ten years. *

    that is a myth (according to the Australian Productivity Commission” They called it a sugar hit as that influx of workers (themselves) needed someone to pay their pensions.

    duggledog (389) Says:
    There is a reason Spain is buggered. ‘Manana’, or ‘worry about it tomorrow’

    or because of a real estate boom as people brought houses in paradise, relying more and more people to follow (like Auckland and Melbourne).

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  20. dime (9,796 comments) says:

    “I recall Don Brash being asked to describe what exactly was an ‘ordinary hard working New Zealander’ during a leaders debate. He couldn’t answer that. Neither can I.”

    someone who works for a living? looks after himself and family.. net tax contributor!

    maybe someone who has an ordinary hooker addiction

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  21. hj (6,855 comments) says:

    Welcome Home Kiwis

    “Peter highlights that we have a relatively high rate of natural increase in population.
    But we also have a large and persistent outflow of NZers (large by any comparative
    international standards). That outflow should best be seen as a rational response to
    perceived opportunities – those abroad are better than those here. Outflows of New
    Zealanders should generally act as a stabilizing force, helping to rebalance the
    economy. Economies with slow growing populations need to devote a whole lot
    smaller proportion of their real resources to simply maintaining the capital stock per
    worker.
    Based solely on the fertility and migration choices of New Zealanders (each
    presumably behaving fairly rationally), our population growth would have been
    growing only quite slowly since the mid 1970s. As it is, our population growth since
    1990 has been second or third fastest in the OECD. What changed? Migration
    policy did in the early 1990s.
    And 80% of our population growth in the last couple of decades has been the net
    inflow of non NZ citizens – thus almost purely a matter of discretionary policy
    choice. Government policy interventions can act to stymie successful adjustment –
    and I believe this to have been the case in NZ over the last two decades. Our negative
    NIIP position is larger, our real exchange rate is higher, our real interest rates are
    higher, and our capital stock per worker (and associated perceived business
    opportunities) are lower than they would have been if we had simply let the self-
    stabilising behavior take its course. As John McDermott’s slides showed earlier, that
    adjustment was working prior to the mid 1980s.
    Among policy and analytical circles in New Zealand there is a pretty high degree of
    enthusiasm for high levels of immigration. Some of that stems from the insights of
    literature on increasing returns to scale. Whatever the general global story, the actual
    productivity track record here in the wake of very strong inward migration is poor.
    In an Australian context, the Productivity Commission – hardly a hot-bed of
    xenophobia or populism – concluded that any benefits from migration to Australia
    were captured by migrants and there were few or no discernible economic benefits to
    Australians. And that was in a country already rich and successful and with
    materially higher national saving and domestic investment rates than those in NZ.
    But very little of the global discussion of migration has factored in the sort of specific
    circumstances New Zealand has found itself in. With relatively low national savings
    rates, and with a relatively well-educated and skilled domestic workforce, it isn’t
    obvious that applying a lot more labour to the situation was the route to success in
    trying to reverse decades of relative economic decline (a very different situation say from Singapore with lots of savings, bringing in people to utilize that domestic
    resource)
    Labour typically needs capital – houses, roads, factories, shops, offices – and it has
    long been recognized that the demand effects of new labour outweigh the supply
    effects for the initial period. But we have had not just one wave of new labour, but
    repeated waves of new labour, with the numbers if anything generally tending to trend
    upwards. Real non-tradables labour and resources need to be used to build the new
    capital stock. That will have required the OCR (and the domestic interest rate) to be
    higher than otherwise throughout the last two decades.”
    http://www.treasury.govt.nz/downloads/pdfs/mi-jarrett-comm.pdf

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  22. hj (6,855 comments) says:

    28% are Kiwis and 78% are foreigners. So where are all the others from? You’ve only identified 35%

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  23. hj (6,855 comments) says:

    8/10 of Auckland top real estate agents are Asian. But that’s because Kiwis are lazy not because they have discovered rich lode from Asia.

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  24. hj (6,855 comments) says:

    The size of New Zealand is indispute. We all thought it was a relatively small country. Apparently though it is all but empty: the demographia crowd point out that we are 0.07% urbanised – “the government cares more about cows than people”. It would be a fat lot of use if it was reversed so that .07% was farm..no?

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  25. dime (9,796 comments) says:

    hj – i bought my place off a chinese bloke. best agent i ever dealt with. hard working. he gave a shit.

    the lazy ass white guy that sold my house never spoke to me again once his cheque cleared! then i get random emails “please refer me to anyone you know who needs an agent” haha like fuck. ill be referring my chinese mate

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  26. hj (6,855 comments) says:

    In BNZ Chief Economist Tony Alexander’s weekly overview, Auckland house prices are set to move upwards nicely. Here are his 19 reasons why:
     
    1. Auckland did not enter the 2008 recession then late-2008 into 2009 global financial crisis with an over-supply of property. Shortages of personnel constrained house construction from 2004 through 2008.
    2. The shortage has become worse in the past four years and last year annual consent numbers were at a four decade low.
    3. The government is explicitly aiming to grow Auckland’s population as a means of achieving “agglomeration” benefits for economic growth which accrue from high interaction amongst economic players.

    http://www.davidwhitburn.com/blogs/auckland-house-prices-to-rise-over-10-in-2013/

    Weird stuff!

    JESSICA – Let’s talk a little bit about that population spread. Why are so many people moving to Auckland?

    PAUL – Well, Auckland – there’s an agglomeration effect, so the bigger Auckland becomes, there more attractive it becomes. It becomes more attractive economically, but it also becomes more attractive as a place to live. And so we’re seeing the sort of perimeters of New Zealand, the regions, beginning to flat-line, so they’re not growing, and we’re now beginning to see the first of regions beginning to decline.

    Q+A
    JESSICA MUTCH INTERVIEWS PAUL SPOONLEY

    results may vary.

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  27. hj (6,855 comments) says:

    New Zealand isn’t Manchester United. We don’t import HWC (hardworkingChinese) and sell under performing Kiwi (UPK). We don’t do that because honest government puts *NZ First* rather than Real Estate Industry First -(National post 1990).

    It’s the truth brothers and sisters!

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  28. Kea (12,041 comments) says:

    8.9% Chinese – what about other Asian countries? Joe Average on the street lumps them all together. What is the total percentage of Asians?

    duggledog, Those figures are not provided. Asia is made up of many different cultures, as are European countries. We lump them together based on appearance, not on culture, in both cases.

    With the modest number of Chinese coming here I do not think we need to worry too much about our cultural values being diluted by “Asians”.

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  29. hj (6,855 comments) says:

    Voltaire

    “History is filled with the sound of silken slippers going downstairs and wooden shoes coming up”
    ……….
    a lot of our migrants have experienced genuine hunger. Our liberals grew up in the lap of (relative) luxury but think they know it all “when I was in London…” poo,poo. Aint no wonder migrants come from cambodia and do well…. but be ware kiwis at the base of the pyramid, lest liberals and business elites sell you down the creak*

    *hint
    watch out for Aucklands house prices going above $250,000 :wink:

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  30. hj (6,855 comments) says:

    With the modest number of Chinese coming here I do not think we need to worry too much about our cultural values being diluted by “Asians”.
    …………………..
    Nothing to see Kea?

    Labour’s Third World Solution
    13 November 2002

    BY GARETH MORGAN

    Ireland’s economic miracle was driven by Germany. Under Labour, ours is being gifted by Communist China. The Germans sent money, the Chinese are sending people.
    //
    That the immigration has to be so high though in order to keep the population growth rate at 1.5% pa, is the surprise. The reason for that lies not just in the lower birth rate. It is driven more by the numbers of New Zealanders leaving, for the latest year that number being equivalent to 1.5% of the population. So the number of permanent arrivals is running at almost 2.5% of the population. Net migration then is providing 1% of the population graph, natural increase the other 0.5%.

    To the extent these trends are maintained it could take as few as 60 years before the population is effectively totally renewed. To the extent the sources of the greatest number of arrivals are now in Asia, Mr Peters is quite justified to point out that New Zealand is looking at a social and demographic revolution.
    http://www.gmi.co.nz/news/514/labours-third-world-solution.aspx

    A six-day showcase in Shanghai of more than $800 million worth of premier New Zealand property is generating “serious interest” from specially invited Chinese VIPs according to the organisers, Harcourts’ franchise Cooper & Co.
    http://news.harcourts.net/news/harcourts%E2%80%99-showcase-in-china-generating-%E2%80%9Cserious-interest%E2%80%9D/

    Of course it isn’t just about China but China is to the East what the US is to the West and Chinese are the other in terms of having a strong culture..they don’t need us (they need our land).

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  31. hj (6,855 comments) says:

    “The Ati Awa chief Te Wharepouri told William Wakefield that when he had participated in the sale of land to the New Zealand Company he had been expecting about ten Pakeha, to settle around Port Nicholson, one Pakeha for each pa.

    When he saw the more than 1,000 settlers who stepped off the company’s ships, he panicked. It was beyond anything that Te Wharepouri had imagined.”

    Penguin History of NZ Michael King.

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  32. smttc (732 comments) says:

    hj, you are becoming a tiresome bore with your endless spam posts about house prices and immigration.

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  33. hj (6,855 comments) says:

    hj, you are becoming a tiresome bore with your endless spam posts about house prices and immigration
    …………..
    but I’m quoting (eg) “a great bunch of thinkers” (Matt Nolan referring to the SWG). Would you prefer I quote from more legitimate sources (eg The Property Council)?

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  34. hj (6,855 comments) says:

    Whatever happens it’s all a done deal:

    Wayne Mapp:

    One thing is absolutely clear, Auckland will grow to 2.5 million in 30 years. Around the town centers there will be increased density. But in areas where the norm is townhouse and traditional housing there will be huge resistance to multilevel apartments. Mayor Len of course knows this, and the plan will be adjusted to take that sting out. Typically in these exercises you put your maximum position out for consultation to give some space to pull back. Of course some planners may not understand this political nuance, and probably not some councillors (i.e. Anne Hartley, judging by her reported comments at the meeting).
    http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2013/05/roughan_on_auckland_rumblings.html/comment-page-1#comment-1147615

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elite_theory

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  35. kowtow (8,186 comments) says:

    But the Celestials are the worst for abusing our generosity and their own oldies.

    This must be addressed. If a migrant leaves the country having brought someone else in then the someone else should get the boot,and the migrant who left needs stripping of immigration status.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10887537

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  36. hj (6,855 comments) says:

    ” Immigration Minister Michael Woodhouse said he did not believe it was a widespread trend for sponsors to leave their parents behind.

    “In the minority of cases where a parent decides to stay behind, there *could be* very good reasons,” Mr Woodhouse said. “They *may* have other children and family in New Zealand, their sponsor *may *only be away temporarily and planning to return [or] the parent *could* even have found a New Zealand partner.”

    Mr Woodhouse said the policy goal for the parent category was to entice more skilled migrants [bus drivers] and entrepreneurs [own van] “by providing a pathway for family reunification”.

    “The net inflow of migrants is *estimated* to be worth around $1.9 billion per year.”
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10887537

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