A new blogger

June 7th, 2013 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

is now blogging at the site of his name.

He’s providing some good analysis on energy issues, including this post looking at the winners and losers of the proposed policy of Labour/Greens.

His summary is:

Winners

  • Energy consumers
  • Policy advisors
  • Media
  • Any energy company that current is not earning its average cost
  • Regulators
  • Gas and coal providers in NZ, without long term contracts
  • Energy company advisors and lawyers
  • Forex and other market dealers

Losers

  • Generation companies that have high cost generation plant
  • Owners and investors and associates in generation companies
  • Future generation market new entrants
  • Anyone with a potentially favourable energy supply contract either as seller or buyer
  • Lines companies that are at risk of asset stranding

Looking forward to some more good analysis.

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12 Responses to “A new blogger”

  1. RRM (9,478 comments) says:

    Generation companies that have high cost generation plant

    That would be ALL OF THEM, presumably…?

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  2. Daigotsu (450 comments) says:

    If his analysis is so great, why didn’t Key give him a prominent policy role?

    Yeah that’s what I thought

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  3. RRM (9,478 comments) says:

    many a good Technician is unsuited to sales, Daigotsu! ;-)

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  4. wreck1080 (3,735 comments) says:

    Who is Aaron Gilmore?

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  5. gretchenp (5 comments) says:

    I couldn’t read it due to the number of grammatical errors!

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  6. David Garrett (6,463 comments) says:

    Is the link working? It takes me to a site which makes no mention of its “owner” or author…

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  7. alloytoo (434 comments) says:

    I’m not entirely sure how consumers “win” from the labour greens energy policy, of course when the blackouts come they technically cease to be consumers…..

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  8. Redbaiter (7,643 comments) says:

    Yes, Allytoo, when one reads the list of losers, its impossible to see how in the long run, consumers can ever be winners.

    If this is an example of Aaron’s report writing and logical abilities maybe we’re lucky he ended up with a political red card.

    Not to overlook the fact that parliament is already stuffed full of idiots a lot worse than Mr. Gilmore.

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  9. Ruminator (18 comments) says:

    He is the **worst** writer. Ye gads he needs an editor.

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  10. muggins (2,983 comments) says:

    Who were the mugs who paid $2.50 for those MRP shares? They could have got them for $2.30 yesterday. I reckon they will be down to $2 if the Labour/Greens look like winning the next election.

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  11. Bullitt (137 comments) says:

    Of course consumers will win. If theres a blackout you can’t use power therefore you can’t (shouldn’t? you never know under this policy) pay for it therefore the consumer saves money, especially in winter.

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  12. alloytoo (434 comments) says:

    Labour uses South Africa as an example of a similar model to their proposed NZ power model.

    Here’s an interesting article on how that’s working for them:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-28/south-africa-s-eskom-to-raise-power-prices-8-a-year-for-5-years.html

    Some pertinent quotes:

    “Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd., the supplier of 95 percent of South Africa‚Äôs electricity, is allowed to raise prices by an average 8 percent in each of the next five years, half the annual increase it requested.”

    8% is half of what they want…….

    “South Africans were confronted by average power-price increases of 25 percent in each of the past six years to help Eskom finance about 500 billion rand of spending through 2017 to overcome an electricity shortage. Factories and mines of companies including Anglo American Plc (AAL) were temporarily halted in 2008 because of the deficit.”

    Makes recent increases under National over the same time scale seem rather tame.

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