Dunne winners and losers

June 8th, 2013 at 8:01 am by David Farrar

Wow, what a day. Who would have picked that Kim Dotcom would indirectly claim as a victim. Of course in this case Dunne really victimised himself.

I thought I would look at the winners and losers in this affair. As part of that I should say that I am assuming that Peter Dunne did in fact leak the GCSB report to , despite his denials. Sure he may not have given her a copy, but it seems clear he was the source for her story.

The probability that Dunne and Vance e-mailed 80 odd times in two weeks, mainly re the GCSB, that they were due to meet up the day before she published her story, that he admits he contemplated leaking it but changed his minds – well it would be an incredible coincidence that she happened to have a second source who also had a copy. I sadly have to conclude Peter Dunne is not telling the truth when he says he did not leak the report – or he is using a Clintonian definition of leak.

  Positives Negatives
     
Winston First Winston is the big winner in this. He gains two things he badly needs – credibility and relevance. One can say he is like a stopped clock – still accurate twice a day, but the reality is basically no-one believed him and he was right. The Henry report was always going to out Dunne, but Peters has managed to claim credit for it.

 

The other win for Winston is that with United Future all but dead electorally, that gives National one fewer option post 2014, which makes NZ First a more compelling option.

The only real negative for Winston is his churlish attacks on inquiry head David Henry. He accused the inquiry of being a cover up effectively, when in fact it forensically made its case against Dunne.
David Henry He did his job well, and exposed behaviour by a Minister incompatible with remaining a Minister. His reputation is enhanced. A worry that presumably a member of his team was leaking to Winston. Will there be an inquiry into the leak from the leak inquiry?
David Shearer One less option for John Key, puts Labour in a slightly better position, and Shearer’s chances of being PM elevated. Has been near invisible on this issue, and Peters stole the show.
John Key Commissioned an inquiry that actually found the leaker. Took decisive action and effectively sacked the Minister. The revelations around Dunne will dominate headlines for some days or weeks, knocking the Government’s good economic news to the back pages.

 

One less option post 2014 will increase speculation that a deal with NZ First will be needed.

 

Dunne remaining an MP and voting for the Government may be an issue for some. However the fact he is an electorate, not list, MP makes this less of an issue.

Peter Dunne Basically none. One could try to polish a turd and say his decision to release (most of) his e-mails, but protest the ones Vance sent to him is gentlemanly. Also now he is no longer a Minister, his swing vote will become more sought after. And he has finally managed to shake the gray man image.  But these are all trying to see a silver lining. Basically his political career is over. United Future is over. I can’t imagine Dunne will contest Ohariu again, and his record of being a moderate sensible MP who could serve constructively in Bolger, Clark and Key Governments is over-whelmed by this indiscretion. A sad end to a career of good service.
Andrea Vance Vance is shown as a reporter who can develop and use sources to get exclusive stories.

 

She has become a household name.

She has become a household name.

 

Other potential sources will be rather wary of her in future.

 

Speculation on the nature of her relationship with Dunne is unpleasant to deal with. I’ll comment on this in more detail below.

Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga
Todd McClay
Paul Goldsmith
One of them could become the new Minister of Revenue outside Cabinet. Two of them won’t be. Also possible Key will just reassign portfolio to an existing Minister such as Coleman or Joyce.

 

The leak inquiry report has resulted in much speculation as to why Peter Dunne did it. Not only did he destroy his career, the actual leak was hugely inconvenient for the Government he was a member of. It over-shadowed the PM’s trip to China, and the unauthorised leak was quite destructive.

There is speculation that the relationship between Dunne and Vance may be more than professional. Normally this stuff would not be something I’d blog about – but when the result is a ministerial resignation due to a leak inquiry, it does become the elephant in the room.

Patrick Gower asked during the Dunne press conference if Dunne was besotted with Vance. He denied this, and said their relationship was professional.

The Herald editorial wonders aloud:

If it was Mr Dunne, which is the only conclusion available from his withholding an 86-email exchange with the Dominion Post reporter, what did he or his party have to gain? Was it the thrill of beating the Prime Minister to the punch, or the desire to stop the GCSB spinning its activities in a more favourable light? Or something not political at all?

John Armstrong also asks:

Why did he tell Vance he was about to be briefed on the contents of the report?

And why were he and Vance exchanging as many as 23 emails a day while Dunne was on holiday in the United States? Was it infatuation? The ex-minister says it wasn’t.

The public may never know exactly what happened. But Henry’s short report is long enough for people to be able to draw their own conclusions.

Another Herald story draws attention to their 300 tweets in the last six months.

There is a bit of a connection of all this to the MPs vs Media debate last month, which both Andrea and I took part in.

The debate two years ago had Darren Hughes in it, debating that politics was a grubby business. Weeks later it emerged he was under investigation by the Police over a sexual assault complaint.

In this debate there was much ribbing of Andrea over the tweets between her and Dunne. It was all in good humour, but again a few weeks later there is a revelation that there was more to it than just tweeting. That Dunne was, at a minimum, a frequent communication with her by e-mail also.

Some people think, or have assumed, there was an affair. I personally think this is not the case at all. Not because there are never affairs between MPs and journalists. There are. But because of the people involved. I know Andrea and her fiancée, whom Andrea moved to NZ to be with. Having observed them together, I would be absolutely amazed if there was any inappropriate behaviour on her part.  Even if she wasn’t engaged, I don’t think she is the sort of person into older married men – to be blunt.

Of course only two people can know for sure. And I have been wrong, as I was on Dunne not being the leaker. But I don’t think their relationship was anything beyond a journalist and a source.

Gower and Armstrong have speculated that Dunne was infatuated with her. I don’t think it was infatuation, but I do think there was probably an element that he found Vance very charming (which she is) and middle aged men will often do stupid things to please young charming women. I’m certainly proof positive of that!

It doesn’t mean you’re infatuated or besotted or even wanting anything beyond friendship, but that you just enjoy the friendship and will do things to help the other person out – and in this case to a degree that you throw common sense out the window.

Of course MPs and journalists do develop relationships for purely professional reasons also. It can be handy to an MP to have a journalist whom they can talk to off the record, and get things into the media they think deserve attention. And it is useful for journalists to have sources who will give them information. This happens all the time. Helen Clark was in fact a serial leaker (she once defended this by saying that by definition the PM can not leak). The key thing with MPs leaking to journalists is you don’t leak things that damage your own party or the Government – if you are part of it. And some things you never leak – and a GCSB report is definitely one of those.

The quantity of the e-mails between Vance and Dunne is certainly well in excess of most MP journalist professional relationships. In fact what surprised me is that they were e-mailing at all. Wasn’t Dunne aware all his e-mails are archived? That some e-mails are subject to the Official Information Act. Also often staff have access to a Minister’s e-mail account.

In one sense the fact they were e-mailing so much, lends me to conclude that Dunne is not a long-time leaker, and there was no affair. An experienced leaker would never be doing it by e-mail. And if you were having an affair, you wouldn’t be tweeting each other so much!

At the end of the day I think Vance just cultivated Dunne as a source. This is what journalists do. It’s actually called good journalism.

Finally, where does this go from here. My predictions:

  • The Police complaint will go nowhere. It is not a criminal matter. The report was not classified with a national security classification.
  • Peters or Labour may try file a privilege complaint alleging Dunne has misled Parliament with his answers at select committee.
  • Dunne’s belief that e-mails between MPs and others are private and should not be released may be tested under the Official Information Act. E-mails to an MP do not come under the OIA, but e-mails to a Minister in their ministerial capacity do. Was Dunne’s access to the GCSB report in his ministerial capacity or his party leader capacity. If the former, then e-mails to and from him may be discoverable under the OIA.
  • Labour and Winston may demand that Dunne resigns as an MP for (presumably) not telling the truth. The problem with this is the hypocrisy. Lianne Dalziel was found to have lied, and she got sacked as a Minister, not an MP. Also Peters himself was conclusively found by the Privileges Committee to have lied, and he did not resign as an MP – and in fact Labour backed him. The voters of Ohariu are the ones who will decide if Dunne remains an MP – should he choose to stand again.
  • Key is more likely to promote an MP to the vacancy, then just reallocate the portfolios.  I’d say Lotu-Iiga and McClay are most likely to step up if he does, but a dark horse could be Paul Goldsmith. Goldsmith has actually written a book on the history of taxation in New Zealand – pretty useful background for a Revenue Minister!
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129 Responses to “Dunne winners and losers”

  1. Pete George (22,868 comments) says:

    if you think this is a win for Winston there’s something badly wrong in or politics. In any case, Dunne was doomed by outing himself in the Henry investigation regardless of Peters’ accusations.

    I doubt you are right about Peters getting a leak from Henry or someone associated with the investigation. Why would they?

    And Peters was wrong in claiming ” all the evidence is in those phone records” – Henry detailed no phone evidence, only email evidence.

    In a Radio NZ interview yesterday Peters implied he had a journalist source.

    And he implies he has email evidence but avoids answering any direct questions about what he has. I think we can safely safe he doesn’t have any, otherwise he could and would kill Dunne’s whole political career right now. Instead he is hoping the police will find evidence to do it, or simply wants to keep the screws on Dunne absent any evidence.

    Winston Peters – false and flimsy accusations (includes radio transcript which is all bluster and bullshit)

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  2. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    iAnd if you were having an affair, you wouldn’t be tweeting each other so much!

    dear oh dear David, your need to get out more has rarely been so apparent.

    The walking hair do’s demise is soley down to his dick, either using it or wanting to.

    And to Andrea Vance- you lucky thing, Pete’s certainly a catch love, onya.

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  3. Manolo (13,401 comments) says:

    [Deleted by DPF]

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  4. Tom Jackson (2,458 comments) says:

    No idea whether Dunne was rooting her. Probably not. But the idea of the Minister for Silly Hair doing an Austin Powers is just too funny not to run with.

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  5. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    Peter George

    The drunken dwarf doesn’t need any evidence now does he?

    His journalistic source will be someone else in the newsroom – think about it.

    Vance – check out this email from Pete, hahha he thinks he’s going to give me one at the Xmas do.

    colleague – FFS Andrea, you wouldn’t?

    Vance – nah but I’ll get a story and then I’ll just have to put up with him, never mind.

    colleague – Winston, you’ll never fucking guess who Dunne is trying to give one to and what he’ll give her
    to get it.

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  6. Pete George (22,868 comments) says:

    The only real negative for Winston is his churlish attacks on inquiry head David Henry. He accused the inquiry of being a cover up effectively, when in fact it forensically made its case against Dunne.

    It didn’t make a case against Dunne.

    There were huge gaps in the inquiry – it didn’t consider anyone who may have contacted Vance privately, which could feasibly be everyone who had access to the report, and a sensible leaker would not have used official communications that they knew where logged.

    Huge gaps in Henry investigation

    Pauleastbay – would a police inquiry omit to investigate the most likely means of leaking?

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  7. Mobile Michael (414 comments) says:

    Women with Irish accents should not be allowed near kiwi men. Too dangerous.

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  8. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    Pete, whats one more lie?

    The journalist wouldn’t tell the police, all your man has to do is say no it wasn’t me, officer.

    Personally I’d have threatened to muss up his hair to get him to cough, but you can’t do that in these
    enlightened times apparently.

    Seeing a politician figuratively drowning is one of my great pleasures in life. Only 122 to go

    and Pete, one piece of advice, its too nice a day to spend it trying to defend the indefensible

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  9. bringbackdemocracy (397 comments) says:

    Peters is also tarnished by this affair as all of the accusations against Dunne highlight his own hypocrisy. He was in receipt of leaked information and like Dunne’s leaders allowance Peters also received funding to which he was not entitled.

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  10. bhudson (4,734 comments) says:

    PEB,

    It is unfair and wrong to imply or characterise the situation as Vance using her feminine guile to ensnare gullible Dunne. At least without evidence. (If such evidence does exist, well “all’s fair”…)

    The evidence in the public domain as of yesterday, such as it was, would indicate otherwise – Dunee and Vance were tweeting quite a bit in the afternoon. On topics other than the GCSB leak and his resignation.

    I suggest that if it had been Vance luring Dunne in to get a scoop, she would have dropped him like the proverbial hot potato once the news broke and he resigned.

    [Which is not to say there is nothing more to come out on this story. Who knows what we will get next? What I think is wrong and is not borne out by evidence as it stands now, is to suggest a Vance-led 'honey trap'.]

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  11. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    bhudson

    I may be wrong but “unfair” where politicians are concerned , forget it.

    They liw with impunity 99% of the time to the taxpayer, bugger him and the horse he rode in on. He’s just another politician who
    thought he was sharper than the rest. The road side is littered with them, long may it continue.

    Of course they’d be talking yesterday, yesterday was quite big in the little world of Peter Dunne.

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  12. Ross12 (1,156 comments) says:

    Has Dunne said why he considered leaking the report , but in the end (according to him ) did not go ahead ??

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  13. Judith (7,695 comments) says:

    Pete George (17,758) Says:
    June 8th, 2013 at 8:09 am
    ———————————

    What would have been right was for Dunne to have come clean the minute Peter’s pointed his boney finger at him. Actually, sooner than that – as soon as it was known there was a leak, he should have come forward and reported his inappropriate actions to the PM.

    Instead he has waited to see whats in the report, and then geared his confession to suit that. I find that strange. Sure, now he can say he didn’t leak the document – because now he knows they found nothing to tie that directly to him (nor to anyone else).

    You cannot blame Winston, who could have been told by anyone – even the tea lady – for doing what Dunne should have done the minute it was obvious that the document had been leaked. His delayed confession makes him still the biggest suspect.

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  14. Souvlaki (30 comments) says:

    It is very possible that Peters source was Vance herself! Why? The obvious thing that springs to mind is to destroy Dunne because she is getting increasingly pissed off with his unwanted attention, causing considerable personal stress! Barry Soper said on ZB. Yesterday, she is due to marry in a week. To unleash Peters as I speculate, would certainly get him ” off her back” forever!

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  15. peterwn (3,168 comments) says:

    How did Winston get wind of it? From David Henry’s people? – very unlikely, from Andrea Vance or someone associated with her? or did he just have a hunch based on what was going on around the place? I would put a bob each way on the latter two.

    IMO it was rather unwise for John Key to have released the report to all ministers (and by implication their staffs). It should only have gone to those who ‘needed to know’ or may have needed to comment on the draft. On a ‘no surprises basis’ it could have been released to the others a few hours before public release.

    During WW2 Churchill discovered that various top secret documents were being needlessly circulated because bureaucrats regarded it as a ‘status symbol’ to be on the circulation list. He directed that it had to be on a ‘need to know’ basis.

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  16. Judith (7,695 comments) says:

    I don’t think there was any ‘affair’ – honestly, no woman but Mrs Dunne could be sexually attracted to ‘the hair’ and ‘bow tie’.

    I think Peter Dunne knew next year with the election was going to be a big one but difficult one for him. Having an influential and local media buddy who owed him a favour or two, would be a good idea.

    He’ll never say he gave her a copy of that report, or left it for a moment for her to nick a copy – and she won’t say for obvious reasons, and it will never be proven who did – which he knows.

    Of course it was him, and sex had nothing to do with it – that is just a convenient distraction from the truth.

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  17. bhudson (4,734 comments) says:

    @Souvlaki,

    And have this blow up a week before her wedding? I don’t think so somehow

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  18. nickb (3,662 comments) says:

    NZ’s most active volunteer spin doctor out in force again today.

    Give it up PG, your party and its leader are dead in the water.

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  19. MD (62 comments) says:

    Dunne resigned rather than release the evidence. That in itself is evidence of wrongdoing. Why won’t he release the evidence? Even just confidentially to Henry? It implicates him in the leak or it implicates him in an unprofessional relationship with Vance. Basically he’s lying either way. I think this is an infatuation on his part. While I’ll accept (in the absence of evidence) that he hasn’t actually engaged in an affair, he got so enamoured with Vance (or was that with himself) that he completely lost perspective / judgement and has destroyed his own career and reputation. He’s not the first nor the last guy to do this, and he’s paid a high price for it. The idea that he contemplated leaking the report and discussed it with her, but then didn’t do it and she mysteriously got another copy from someone else – it’s a little far-fetched.

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  20. nickb (3,662 comments) says:

    Hahahaha stuff are having some fun

    STRIFE OUT OF CHARACTER FOR CHAMPION OF ‘COMMON SENSE’

    UnitedFuture leader Peter Dunne carved out a long political career by driving carefully down the middle of the road until his crash yesterday.

    Former Labour prime minister David Lange famously described him as “a man whose life is so boring that if it flashed past he wouldn’t be in it”.

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  21. nickb (3,662 comments) says:

    Plus Paul Goldsmith is a smarmy born to rule tosser (like most of the national party) and lifetime trougher.

    Give the portfolio to Sam Lotu-Iiga. At least he has some credible private sector experience in finance.

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  22. toms (301 comments) says:

    Peter Dunne says in today’s Herald: “Once we start saying private correspondence is public property we go down a very slippery slope.”

    I assume that means he will now change his vote and no longer support the massive extension of state surveillance in John Key’s outrageous Government Communications Security Bureau and Related Legislation Amendment Bill? After all, John Key would have the GCSB trawlling through everyones email if he can get this attack on our liberty through parliament. As an independent MP who has tasted the consequences of a massive extensions of power for the PM’s personal secret police force, Dunne can now help vote this vicious piece of legislation down.

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  23. Pete George (22,868 comments) says:

    Dunne resigned rather than release the evidence. That in itself is evidence of wrongdoing.

    It isn’t evidence of wrongdoing. It certainly leaves questions unanswered but it isn’t evidence.

    Dunne revealed information to Henry – that he considered leaking the report – that led him deciding he had to resign. So he chose not to hide incriminating evidence.

    It’s possible Dunne revealed some incriminating evidence and wouldn’t reveal evidence that would have proven further wrongdoing, but there’s not proof of that.

    And Dunne has challenged Fairfax to back up his story. They could do that without revealing their source, or put Dunne further in the shit if he is wrong. So far they are choosing to leave an unsolved cloud over Dunne.

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  24. Roflcopter (427 comments) says:

    While I don’t think Dunne actually leaked the report (as in “the whole report”), I’m picking that those emails he refuses to release contain significant extracts for Vance to frame her story… so he didn’t actually leak “the report”, but enough info from it that he might as well have.

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  25. hj (6,382 comments) says:

    Winston is the big winner in this. He gains two things he badly needs – credibility and relevance.
    …………………………………….

    If only the political class would allow the message to get out:

    ““The big adverse gap in productivity between New Zealand and other countries opened up from the 1970s to the early 1990s. The policy choice that increased immigration – given the number of employers increasingly unable to pay First-World wages to the existing population and all the capital requirements that increasing populations involve – looks likely to have worked almost directly against the adjustment New Zealand needed to make and it might have been better off with a lower rate of net immigration. This adjustment would have involved a lower real interest rate (and cost of capital) and a lower real exchange rate, meaning a more favourable environment for raising the low level of productive capital per worker and labour productivity. The low level of capital per worker is a striking symptom of New Zealand’s economic challenge.”

    http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/reviews-consultation/savingsworkinggroup/pdfs/swg-report-jan11.pdf

    It is a bit like the referee disallowed a try but you ignore that and act as though you won the game.

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  26. Souvlaki (30 comments) says:

    Bhudson @ 9 am.
    The timing of Dunne being exposed has nothing to do with Peters…. Henry’s report is what finished him, due for release yesterday.peters as usual was being opportunistic, knowing the likely result of the report! He punted on a winner

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  27. Judith (7,695 comments) says:

    It isn’t evidence of wrongdoing. It certainly leaves questions unanswered but it isn’t evidence.

    Dunne revealed information to Henry – that he considered leaking the report – that led him deciding he had to resign. So he chose not to hide incriminating evidence.

    It isn’t evidence, because as Dunne now knows, the investigation was unable to find anything to back it up. That doesn’t mean it didn’t happen.

    When Dunne revealed that information to Henry – that would have been the time for him to have confessed his so called stupidity – instead he waited – waited through Winston’s accusations – and said NOTHING despite the perfect opportunity – said nothing until he saw what Henry had found.

    That behaviour is cunning, and demonstrates a lack of openness – there is no explanation other than Dunne was waiting to see what was known, and then work out what his story would be from that.

    He should go – there is no concrete reason for him staying except to glean a bit more out of the public purse – proving himself to be the ‘government whore’ he has often been called. Now is the time to do the right thing and give up the ‘game’.

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  28. toms (301 comments) says:

    *Snort!* *Chortle!* I find the idea of that bow tied old codger of a minister finally finding something he can believe in touching. That that thing unfortunately turned out to be having an unrequited crush on a pretty young reporter is so delightfully delicious that it means I think I am going to need an extra cup of tea. How embarassing, and the funniest thing is he didn’t even get his leg over.

    I am laughing the same deep laugh of vulgar joy you do when you spot a female friend doing the walk of shame and you stop to pick her up and take her home.

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  29. Jimbob (640 comments) says:

    Peters must have obtained his info through the media, it is quite obvious. Vance obtained the info and she is Woman, they talk all the time. She also must have cock teased Dunne to get the info in the first place, I have seen it happen before. Both parties will be the losers, and it will be interesting to see what happens to Andrea Vance’s circumstances over the next few months.

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  30. bhudson (4,734 comments) says:

    @Souvlaki,

    Fair point on the timing – this was going to come out irrespective of Peter’s knowing about it, or not.

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  31. flipper (3,595 comments) says:

    Excellent analysis DPF. Thanks.

    Of course the ultimate Ministerial/Journo sexual relationship was Nats Labour/Immigration Minister Tom Shand, and Fran Collett (NZBS Radio). If there is a better(sic) one. I have not heard (or seen) of it.

    Peter Dunne is no Shand. He did not (unless Winston saw him :) ) walk into a crowded Wellington restaurant, hand in hand with Collett. It was said that she obtained her NZ work visa (as a US Citizen ) via Shand. It was also said that Tom Skinner shared her “affections”.

    Keith Holyoake was aware, but simply put his “hat on”. :)

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  32. hmmokrightitis (1,516 comments) says:

    The Minister of Baubles heard a whisper, and under privilege, acted on it. I suspect after he did, which was an initial fishing expedition, the noises he heard gave him courage to go further, otherwise he would have STFU at that point, no harm, no foul.

    Dunne has for some reason yet to be explained decided to implode. But that number of emails over that period of time speaks to me of thinking with something south of his brain.

    Which given the previously mentioned Minister of Baubles predilection for similar behaviour over many years carries a certain irony. But then maybe the real lesson to young aspirant MP’s here is simple, as noted elsewhere. Do it at home, or pay for it very quietly.

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  33. toms (301 comments) says:

    Winston just now on TV3 ever so casually dropped in another accusation – that these emails also contained other sensitive information around cabinet appointments and the like.

    More to come. Dunne will be forced out of parliament for this, and he’ll be lucky to escape prison if the government puts half the effort into chasing him they do into beneficiaries.

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  34. jpollock (7 comments) says:

    I don’t know. I’m an Ohariu resident, and I’m more willing to vote for Dunne now. I am even seriously considering becoming a paid member of the party. That’s shocking to me.

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  35. niggly (799 comments) says:

    Looking at the reports of the tweets between Dunne and Vance, I’m shocked what Dunne is saying to her eg that she is some sort of “spycatcher” and “well done” (on her efforts on reporting the previous GCSB/DotCon stories).

    WTF? Vance conflated many aspects of the GCSB and DotCon case to attack the PM’s credibility and Dunne was supporting this? What a wanker.

    His actions were somewhat “treasonous” … but having said that I don’t think it would be fair to accuse Dunne of being that, more if anything it does point to some sort of unhealthy infactuation with Ms Vance and his actions were “highly innapproriate”. At least Dunne the right thing and resigned his Ministerial portfolios. He should stay on as the local MP though (unless more shit is exposed).

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  36. Tom Jackson (2,458 comments) says:

    Dunne needs to leave parliament. He has no credibility left. Expect Winsto. To put him to the sword until he leaves.

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  37. Pete George (22,868 comments) says:

    Winston just now on TV3 ever so casually dropped in another accusation – that these emails also contained other sensitive information around cabinet appointments and the like.

    More to come.

    Maybe, maybe not.

    In Parliament Peters claimed the evidence was in the phone records. It wasn’t.

    When asked now about email contents Peters avoids answering directly and gives vague replies.

    If Peters had information that would sink Dunne now he would produce it. He is bluffing and effectively he is stoking a lie, unless he can produce evidence, he can’t be believed.

    DPF saying that Peters gains credibility is remarkably un-astute.

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  38. duggledog (1,362 comments) says:

    “Former Labour prime minister David Lange famously described him as “a man whose life is so boring that if it flashed past he wouldn’t be in it”.

    Thanks for reminding me why I despised David Lange. A dreadful fat man with a clever mouth

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  39. mikenmild (10,766 comments) says:

    Peters can be said to have gained credibility in that he fingered Dunne as the person who leaked the report and it turned out to be so. OTOH, whether anyone is more likely to believe Winston’s next allegation is another question.

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  40. Mark (1,368 comments) says:

    Roflcopter (309) Says:
    June 8th, 2013 at 9:17 am
    While I don’t think Dunne actually leaked the report (as in “the whole report”), I’m picking that those emails he refuses to release contain significant extracts for Vance to frame her story… so he didn’t actually leak “the report”, but enough info from it that he might as well have.

    So its similar to Clinton claiming he did not have sex with Lewinski

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  41. Changeiscoming (140 comments) says:

    Looking forward to the next election – United Future gone, most likely ACT gone. What’s left for National? Deal with the Conservatives most likely or just hope they make the 5%. Deal with NZ first?

    Immm…tough times for National it seems.

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  42. Pete George (22,868 comments) says:

    Judith Collins avoiding ruling out dealing with NZ First to form a Government on Firstline. She categorically ruled out being in a Government with Norman and Turei but said she would have to see what the voters came up with regarding Peters and NZ First and would be up to Key.

    Remarkable. Does she have a Green veto but no say about NZ First?

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  43. Reid (15,981 comments) says:

    How did Winston get wind of it?

    Who in the National Party knew what Henry was doing? Answer that and you have the pool of people who will answer that question. It wasn’t Henry’s staff. Even if he had any. Of course it wasn’t. No. This has calculation written all over it. And as some have said, it’s not over yet. More to come out of this.

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  44. hmmokrightitis (1,516 comments) says:

    duggledog at 953:

    Agree completely re Lange. And another prime example of someone who thought with an organ he probably hadnt seen in years.

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  45. NK (1,072 comments) says:

    Pete – I’d have thought you’d realise after all these years that in politics, perception is reality. The perception is that Winston nailed Dunne. The perception is that Dunne leaked the report and got caught. The finer detail and misnomers here and there mean nothing.

    Someone gave you some sound advice last night: Take a break from this for a few days. You are clearly failing to see the wood for the trees.

    As an aside, I feel sorry for Dunne. I don’t think he’s malicious or a wanker, unlike Peters who is both. But your guy lost.

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  46. nickb (3,662 comments) says:

    Pete – I’d have thought you’d realise after all these years that in politics, perception is reality. The perception is that Winston nailed Dunne. The perception is that Dunne leaked the report and got caught. The finer detail and misnomers here and there mean nothing.

    Someone gave you some sound advice last night: Take a break from this for a few days. You are clearly failing to see the wood for the trees.

    This. Pete, your pathetic attempts at smokescreening are becoming embarrassing. Everyone knowns WRP is a lunatic but he has caught Dunce out this time.

    Tax practitioners up and down the country are celebrating harder than most.

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  47. Pete George (22,868 comments) says:

    NK – I think I’m seeing far more detail than most, most are just standing back cheering a tree they didn’t like has been uprooted.

    Are you suggesting perception should never be challenged? Politics is as much a battle of perceptions as it is of realities.

    Just accepting crap and moving on to the next shit fight is a sad way of doing politics, and I don’t think we should just roll over and keep accepting it. So I’ll keep challenging crappy perceptions.

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  48. NK (1,072 comments) says:

    Good on you Pete. I think that’s a good attitude. I’ve been where you are defending a party and an MP/s from bullshit and bravado. But swimming against the tide eventually drowns you.

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  49. Reid (15,981 comments) says:

    NK – I think I’m seeing far more detail than most, most are just standing back cheering a tree they didn’t like has been uprooted.

    Possibly Pete however there are various people here both today and last night who’ve made extremely penetrating and astute comments which you completely ignore. Which is interesting in that it says a lot about where you’re really coming from on this.

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  50. Pete George (22,868 comments) says:

    nickb – WRP has just caught up the gullible who give him credit that he doesn’t deserve.

    Maybe your dream will come true and Peters will be the next Revenue Minister.

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  51. Tookinator (214 comments) says:

    I wonder if he used his private/personal email account for many of the emails (albeit on a Parliamentary computer.) Then office staff wouldn’t also have access to them? As they were from a Parliamentary computer would they be discoverable or subject to the OIA?

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  52. Manolo (13,401 comments) says:

    Have a laugh: http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/comment/tom-scott-cartoons

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  53. iMP (2,248 comments) says:

    A great analysis David, I have reposted some of it, but I disagree it is necessarrily “good journalism”. I also agree there is no affair.

    http://conzervative.wordpress.com/2013/06/08/more-on-dunne/

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  54. Pete George (22,868 comments) says:

    NK – swimming against the tide is more fun than rolling over and wallowing in the same old muck.

    And sometimes political tides turn. Those who are prepared can ride the new waves.

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  55. Nostalgia-NZ (4,918 comments) says:

    ‘I’d have thought you’d realise after all these years that in politics, perception is reality. The perception is that Winston nailed Dunne.’

    The finer details mean nothing, Peters can build a mountain from this come election time if he so choses, but no doubt there will be other things also on his list by then. “I told you that there was corruption in this Government and a few short weeks later a Minister resigned, yet Key kept him in the fold. When Horan slipped up he was out, that’s good Government. Government that the people can trust, not looking after your mates and a paper slim majority. I’ll consider working with a major party in Government but my bottom line will be Ministerial responsibility to the highest standard, look toward remedying the waka jumping and having acts of Parliament passed by members with no voter mandate. New Zealand has lost true democracy.’…or some such line appealing to the line that votes are what counts, not party lists that go deeper into the barrel with each failure of an MP.

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  56. Viking2 (11,147 comments) says:

    On April 9, Fairfax Media revealed the GCSB may have spied illegally on more than 80 New Zealanders.
    Ad Feedback

    The revelations were contained in a report by Cabinet Secretary Rebecca Kitteridge, which was due to be released the following week when Key returned from a major trade mission to China.

    A week later Key announced an investigation into the leak, both because the information was sensitive and it was “annoying” for the Government.

    Retired public servant David Henry, who conducted the investigation, said in his report that three people who had access to the Kitteridge report also had contact with the reporter.

    Two of those were public servants whose contact was “entirely commensurate” with their duties.

    Dunne said he was “extremely concerned and upset” by the report, and releasing the emails would not be proper as those who contacted him should be able to assume they did so in confidence.

    “While I did not leak the report, and challenge Fairfax to confirm that, some of my actions after I received an advance copy of the report were extremely unwise and lacked the judgment reasonably expected of a minister in such circumstances.”

    Fairfax Media executive editor Paul Thompson said the company had no comment on the Henry report, and would never comment on confidential sources.

    “This story was an excellent scoop by our reporter and was handled with the utmost professionalism by the Fairfax team.”

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/8771272/Peter-Dunne-Out-in-the-cold

    So Fairfax have been in this up to their eyeballs.

    Pleased Dunne is gone now he needs to go. Sooner rather than later.

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  57. niggly (799 comments) says:

    Actually chaps PG has a point in that there is no evidence that Dunne leaked the report to Fairfax (DPF thinks he did and WO thinks he didn’t, so there you go. At this stage I don’t think he did but could have drip fed aspects etc). So I don’t have an issue with PG defending those aspects and attacking Peters etc.

    The fact that Dunne withheld emails to Henry (granted, bad move) may have nothing to do with the GCSB leak. It might be due to other “embarrassing” aspects, such as (judging by the content of the MSM tweet reports about being a defender of civil liberties etc), say Dunne expressing ‘sympathy” over Dotcom in the case of “illegal” spying or maybe even knocking National or Ministers for supporting “draconian measures” etc. Seems there was a big connection with Vance and Dotcom and now it looks like Dunne to an extent etc.

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  58. Judith (7,695 comments) says:

    I don’t know how these things work. If Dunne leaves parliament, is there an election in his electorate?

    If there was, I’m pretty sure National would win the seat – I have to say I am usually unimpressed by Mr Key, however, think he deserves a new level of respect for the manner he has handled this matter. It can’t have been easy, given the position it places the government in.

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  59. Black with a Vengeance (1,552 comments) says:

    Thirty years on the public tit is a good run by anyone’s measure.

    For all the speculation, he’s gone because he lied to Key.

    Only Key is allowed to lie to himself.

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  60. Pete George (22,868 comments) says:

    niggly – you might have missed this last night:

    @KimDotcom

    An honest politician departed from an uninhabitable Planet Key. I respect @PeterDunneMP

    Even more interesting now.

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  61. niggly (799 comments) says:

    Yes interesting as to why criminal Dotcom “respected” Dunne – Dunne must have expressed some support or sympathy for him, even indirectly via reporter(s) or twittosphere presumably. I suppose if so, thank goodness it wasn’t a Govt Minister (but Dunne’s judgement does suck … his mind seemed to have drifted off somewhere for, ahem, some reason. Must have thought the bow-ties had some alluring appeal)!

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  62. Alan Johnstone (1,064 comments) says:

    Would National win a by-election here ? Not sure.

    Best guide is to look at party vote last time out. National took 49% of the party vote, beating the combined Labour / Green total by 9%. Greens would obviously squeezed to nothing in a competitive two way election.

    It’s a fair lead but mid term administrations have lost from better positions.

    Not something Mr Key would want to risk given the choice. If he lost, the Maori party would hold the balance of power and we’d be looking at a general election this year. The increased baubles they’d demand would be untenable.

    Unless there is a clear smoking gun, he’ll tough it out.

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  63. Monique Angel (252 comments) says:

    So if Dunne resigns and there is a by-election, you have Green Gareth Hughes, Labour candidate, whoever that is after Chuck departed.
    And if I were David Cunliffe, I’d consider taking up residence in, say Khandallah. Best opportunity to take an inluential seat, ever.
    National candidate is Katrina Shanks.
    If Shanks is elected as electorate MP, National loses a supporting vote by consigning Dunne to the annuls of history, as Shanks is already a list MP.
    If Peter campaigns against a strong campaign led by Katrina, the likelihood is that the Green/Labour communist bloc come up through the middle and take out the seat. And that’ss how I came up with the sum total of two seats lost by National at the next election, Preciousess.

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  64. Nostalgia-NZ (4,918 comments) says:

    ‘It might be due to other “embarrassing” aspects, such as (judging by the content of the MSM tweet reports about being a defender of civil liberties etc), say Dunne expressing ‘sympathy” over Dotcom in the case of “illegal” spying or maybe even knocking National or Ministers for supporting “draconian measures” etc. Seems there was a big connection with Vance and Dotcom and now it looks like Dunne to an extent etc.’

    Not really significant to my mind, simply shows Dunne as willing to vote against his own beliefs.

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  65. Alan Johnstone (1,064 comments) says:

    “If Shanks is elected as electorate MP, National loses a supporting vote by consigning Dunne to the annuls of history, as Shanks is already a list MP.”

    No, if she resigns as a list MP, she is replaced by the next member on the list. No net change.

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  66. bhudson (4,734 comments) says:

    @niggly,

    Dotcom’s ‘respect’ for Dunne could simply be because he leaked the report [in Dotcom's view, not necessarily in fact]

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  67. Judith (7,695 comments) says:

    Monique Angel (52) Says:
    June 8th, 2013 at 11:07 am
    ——————————–

    :-) Thanks for the summary Monique.

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  68. Monique Angel (252 comments) says:

    BTW, Reid had me up for saying National has hung Dunne out to dry. Of course the two issues of party membership and the Leak are separate. But how surprised was JK at hearing of the email debacle? Not at all. The Gilmore affair dragged on for weeks. Isn’t it strange how pre-prepared Key’s office was.
    So this is how it played out:
    Peter Dunne gives Vance some information. Perhaps he points her in the general direction of the substance of the body of the report. I’d say that was the sum total of any “indiscretion. Probably the emails from Peter are voluminous and wordy and could be construed as being anti-faith in the GCSB at the worst. If that were the case, it would be the basis of a very anti National campaign designed to whip the public in a frenzy, even more so than usual.
    Vance puts two and two together because she’s an intelligent girl. Meanwhile Peters knows it wasn’t him that leaked because he’s normally totally feeble and couldn’t spot a genuine opportunity, just his usual tilting at windmills. Unfortunately he’s right on the mark, this time and he knows it. Except Dunne hasn’t leaked, he’s just taught a Bimbo how to fish, as it were.
    Vance goes to Key’s office and says. This is what we have. Would you like to talk?
    Key prepares the statement, he’d have known about Dunne’s resignation before the media. So he hasn’t hung Peter out to dry but it’s a convenient parting of the ways given the FUBAR of the UF membership issue that would have bitten National come election time.

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  69. bhudson (4,734 comments) says:

    If Dunne resigns from Parl, National do have a challenge for a support party vote next election.

    As for the intervening 18 months:

    - if Greens, Labour or NZ First win the by-election, National are -1 (Dunne replaced by an unfriendly, no change to 59 National MPs)
    - if National wins, then National are +1 (the electorate seat, plus either one off the List to replace Katrina if she is the National candidate, or the electorate seat plus the current 59 MPs, if the newly elected electorate MP is a National candidate, but someone other than a current National MP)

    Edit: Better to say that if National won by-election, they would be +1 in terms of MPs, but no change to total votes in support

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  70. Alan Johnstone (1,064 comments) says:

    “- if Greens, Labour or NZ First win the by-election, National are -1 (Dunne replaced by an unfriendly, no change to 59 National MPs)”

    If that occurs there is no intervening 18 months. At this point there is no majority on the floor of the house for the further sale of state assets. Key will be compelled to go to the country.

    Any by-election becomes an referendum on the future of the Key government.

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  71. bhudson (4,734 comments) says:

    @Alan,

    Not so. In fact Key said yesterday that the GG could quite rightly refuse his request to dissolve Parliament on the basis that Nats would still hold confidence and supply through ACT and MP.

    It would certainly stymie a good amount of change between now and Oct/Nov next year. And I agree it might led him to want to the polls early, but it might not actually be feasible.

    [and as I couldn't edit my edit above: In fact National winning the by-election would make them better off for the next 18 myths as it would lock in a vote for them that Dunne had, on occasion, used to vote against (e.g. the mondayisation legislation)]

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  72. Pete George (22,868 comments) says:

    The MOM bill has passed, why is a vote majority still needed for that?

    But I think a by-election would be a major risk for National with much to lose.

    Party votes at the last election are an indicator only, much different things at play in such an important by-election.

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  73. Alan Johnstone (1,064 comments) says:

    Oh come on, do you really think that Key would even attempt to govern without the ability to sell state assets ?

    It’s a farcical proposition.

    Labour would table a confidence motion based on asset sales like “this house has no confidence in the governments asset sale program” and dare the MP to oppose it, which of course they couldn’t as it’s be signing their own suicide note.

    A lost by-election means a general election as sure as night follows day.

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  74. Pete George (22,868 comments) says:

    The Maori Party is bound to vote for National on confidence. A vote either way may be a suicide note for them.

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  75. Alan Johnstone (1,064 comments) says:

    “The MOM bill has passed, why is a vote majority still needed for that?”

    The MOM can be repealed. The votes would exist to do so.

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  76. wf (375 comments) says:

    I guess Vance will have to work harder on her PR in future. Who will EVER talk to her again. No politicians with more than half a brain surely.
    I wonder if she is feeling pleased with herself this morning?

    Perhaps after she gets married next week she’ll retreat into domesticity.

    Monique, I think you have the outline for a good political mystery novel there. I think I have read it before though.

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  77. Alan Johnstone (1,064 comments) says:

    “The Maori Party is bound to vote for National on confidence.”

    Don’t be naive, they are bound to vote for national on confidence, until they decide not to.

    The agreement isn’t written in blood, they can walk away from it at any time it suits them.

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  78. KevinH (1,132 comments) says:

    Peters will take this to the privileges committee, he will be looking to caste his net as widely as he can, possibly forcing Dunne to reveal the contents of the embargoed emails.
    Whale paints this as a honeypot trap, on face value that appears to be the case, however there appears to be no evidence that Dunne and Vance were having an affair and it is unlikely they were.
    There is a third party involved in this scandal, a genuine leaker, who that is remains to be seen.

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  79. bhudson (4,734 comments) says:

    The agreement isn’t written in blood, they can walk away from it at any time it suits them.

    Which would also be like signing their own suicide note – who could then trust them as a coalition partner?

    Also, IIRC, confidence motions cannot be put forward by the Opposition at their whim – they can only call for them during specific debates. From memory, I think they are the Budget, Imprest supply and the PM’s opening statement each year.

    So they couldn’t be called on MoM just because they fancy it as a chance to repeal it.

    The govt can make any motion a matter of confidence if they choose to do so. (Which, of course, they would only do if they were sure of the numbers.)

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  80. Tom Jackson (2,458 comments) says:

    If Dunne resigns from Parl, National do have a challenge for a support party vote next election.

    I would be very surprised if Dunne resigns of his own volition. This revelation would have been planned out well in advance.

    My guess is that Key told Dunne that, although he obviously couldn’t continue as a minister, that the business community would look extremely poorly on a Dunne resignation that caused the downfall of a pro-business National government, and that he would be unlikely to receive any lucrative job offers if he did quit parliament. Since parliament is now largely a stepping stone to more lucrative employment opportunities, Dunne won’t leave.

    Dunne will or has agreed not to contest the next election in return for a cushy job. Count on it.

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  81. niggly (799 comments) says:

    bhudson (3,580) Says:
    June 8th, 2013 at 11:13 am

    Fair point!

    I should just shaddup myself because I’m merely speculating but it does seem there is more to this than simply Dunne supposedly “leaking”, he may have mostly related his personal thoughts on various issues which are too current to be repeated in the public domain or got a bit too chummy), the facts as where there is dirt it gets drip fed to Peters, yet again, so who’s in bed with him so to speak?

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  82. niggly (799 comments) says:

    Crikey all this talk about National losing a by-election to a LG block is both ridiculous, yet crazy enough for the SubStandardistas to take it so seriously they will again predict the imminent downfall of the Govt and get all weak and giddy with excitement – only to see it evoporate the poll result – it must do their heads in, sheesh!

    Give the people of the electorate more credit (after all they prefer “sensible” to “radical’) and also the LG vote would be split anyway!

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  83. bhudson (4,734 comments) says:

    @niggly,

    Many possibles, but I think we can discount the PM’s office and Dunne’s own office.

    It could be someone on the inquiry, but I suspect that Henry would have ensured that his inquiry lived up to the security expectations and processes he documented in his own report.

    It could be a fellow journalist who got wind of Vance’s source. Or put two and two together from other evidence. Assuming Peters does have access to the emails, then it could also (feasibly) be someone with admin rights in Fairfax IT.

    I suspect that is one piece of information we’ll never find out. Peters is too wily to be caught with a trail

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  84. bhudson (4,734 comments) says:

    also the LG vote would be split anyway!

    Alas, despite their claims of dodgy deals by National, the Greens have always promoted that Greens supporter vote for the Labour candidate in Ohariu – even if only by asking solely for the party vote and remaining ‘silent’ on the electorate vote.

    Which would pose a conundrum for them in a by-election. They could stand Hughes in the by-election to give their policies air time, but that he would not actually campaign for votes. However that might actually backfire and have people not treat them and their policies seriously because of that.

    I think their arrogance is such that they could not resist standing. If simply to reinforce to Labour that they need them.

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  85. niggly (799 comments) says:

    I think if Peters has access to emails he’ll leak them and sooner surely while it’s all still hot and can apply more pressure (resignation/byelection etc). So let’s see what plays out and hopefully the answer to your question.

    Then again jealous journo’s putting two and two together, have a beer or yak with Peters, throw mud, just could be something (or another small aspect)!

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  86. Paulus (2,503 comments) says:

    Surely every “thinking” politician would know that any relationship with the media is doomed to fail.

    He or she in the media will “shit” on you as soon as look at you, when it suits them.

    There are only two parties to the EMs and it is only Vance, who could have given them to Peters.

    Dunne would not.

    Stupid to trust the media – all of them.

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  87. niggly (799 comments) says:

    bhudson (3,582) Says:
    June 8th, 2013 at 12:16 pm

    Couldn’t agree more with what you wrote and your last sentance sums the current situation rather well!

    Could you imagine Wussel denying the airtime that will come to both him and the candidate – all for free! Hey, could he stand himself? Win-win! What does Clint say?

    Despite the Left no doubt going to talk up a glorious victory, I’ll be popping back the popcorn and having a laugh at their resulting shenanigans getting sunlight (and then the result)!

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  88. bhudson (4,734 comments) says:

    @Paulus,

    The evidence just doesn’t substantiate that. Dunne and Vance have continued to have quite a number of twitter exchanges since the news broke. Those have been perfectly pleasant and iniatied by both parties at different times.

    I cannot accept that Vance would do so if she had set Dunne up through Peters.

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  89. Pete George (22,868 comments) says:

    Peters will take this to the privileges committee, he will be looking to caste his net as widely as he can, possibly forcing Dunne to reveal the contents of the embargoed emails.

    According to Graeme Edgeler Dunne can’t be forced to give evidence and he can’t be forced to answer questions.

    Russel Norman “police need to investigate and force Mr Dunne” and Grant Robertson “Dunne should be compelled to give evidence under oath” are in the police state camp wanting forced evidence for leaks.

    And Bryce Edwards slams it as chilling for them to want to refer political leaks to the police, saying it “can have a very chilling affect on politics and journalism”.

    Labour and Greens want to force evidence

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  90. deadrightkev (280 comments) says:

    You forgot to list NZ as being a winner with no Peter Dunne.

    The quicker we recycle the dead beat cult parties like United Failure the better. Dunne has never done anything remotely creative or politically visionary in the whole time he has sucked on the teat. Off with his head and the quicker the better. Same with NZ First and John Banks. There was a place for Act but its now called the Conservative party.

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  91. Monique Angel (252 comments) says:

    Doubt there was a third party leak. The only other likely bod is a public servant. Most offices are too loyal to their MInisters and what public servant would risk getting shit-canned over leaking a report that was due to be published anyway.
    And the tree-hugger vs sensible conservative vote in Ohariu is relatively equal. About 18k each on the party vote from memory at 2011. That’s why Peter is so useful. He guarantees that extra support vote whereas even if National takes the electorate vote, there is no guarantee they won;t lose it to Labour at the following election.

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  92. 103PapPap (129 comments) says:

    Seeing as how Dunne was emailing Vance while he was away on holiday – it assumes he was using a private email address on his cellphone. These emails are the private property of Dunne.
    If he was emailing Vance from a Parlimentary email address then the emails belong to the owner of the Parlimentary email system. They are not private, so Dunne has no rights to block access to them.

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  93. bhudson (4,734 comments) says:

    @Paulus and PEB,

    I withdraw and apologise. Just been checking the twitter activity I had seen between Dunne and Vance yesterday and it appears it has been another user ‘retweeting’ their exchanges from some time ago (April being the most recent I had seen.)

    So there isn’t any evidence, that I can see at least, of any continued twitter comms between them which would show Vance as unlikely to be the leaker of the emails.

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  94. Warren Murray (280 comments) says:

    Thanks Tom, What do u think of the odds of there being a by election? I reckon Dunne’s resilience will be really tested to its limits to see out the remainder of this term. If UF loses recognition as a parliamentary party, it could be the the catalyst for him resigning.

    While the Nats Party vote was solid in 2011, all the other Wellington seats are Red. If Labour fielded a strong candidate, they could win the seat. I get the impression that Dunne held the seat for a couple of reasons, firstly he worked hard, secondly, many Ohariu voters hated Chauvel and Shanks in equal measure, so had a credible candidate in Dunne to vote for. Labour might hope there is a by-election because Shanks is beatable.

    As interesting as it is to speculate who will replace Dunne in Ohariu, perhaps more importantly is where will the United Party vote go in 2014?

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  95. niggly (799 comments) says:

    And the tree-hugger vs sensible conservative vote in Ohariu is relatively equal. About 18k each on the party vote from memory at 2011.

    Yes but this time it would be for the electorate vote only, which would result in a split left-vote, unless either L or G concede and don’t stand a candidate, and although one of them should in order to try and snatch a win, I can’t see a resurgent (and angry) Green Party stepping aside for Labour and vice-versa as Labour would face division within and have an understanding, as confirmed by last week’s Fairfax survey, that the public are weary of Greens dominance or influence over Labour to their detriment. Realistically (IMO) Labour would have to stand and the Greens not. But I bet the Greens are more organised than Labour (who at least still have Hughes).

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  96. Viking2 (11,147 comments) says:

    Avatar
    Phar Lap • 3 hours ago

    When the so called story broke.Campbell live interviewed A guy called Bruce Ferguson,who seemed to be a very sour grapes type of guy,like he had a chip on his shoulder.When I heard it said Ferguson was an ex head of the security dept,and also a good mate of Dunne,in fact a bosom buddy. Ferguson seemed to know a lot more than most about the story,?????hmmmmm .

    http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2013/06/seems-im-not-the-only-one-insensitive-enough-to-ask-the-proper-questions/

    =====================
    HMMM. Now where have we heard that name and its bad attitude before?

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  97. Alan Wilkinson (1,816 comments) says:

    Since it criticised actions under his watch, presumably Ferguson was given a copy of the draft Kitteridge report before publication due to natural justice requirements. Not so clear why he would want it released early though unless he was trying to get Vance to spin it his way.

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  98. Alan Johnstone (1,064 comments) says:

    @ Pete George

    “According to Graeme Edgeler Dunne can’t be forced to give evidence and he can’t be forced to answer questions.”

    Of course he can’t, but his silence condemns him effectively enough, and the left will just stand and continually throw shit at him, some of it will stick. It’s an untenable position.

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  99. Mark (1,368 comments) says:

    One suspects that Key is getting sick to death of hearing about matters relating to the GCSB. Illegal spying, his involvement in the appointment of Fletcher, the sacking of Dunne this small government department seems has that distasteful ability to linger like a fart in a lift.

    In the mean while the good economic news, the progress on employment and other wins for the government take the background as the media gather the information on the GCSB by fair means or not so fair means.

    Dunne has come out of this looking somewhat the pathetic middle aged man beguiled by a bit of flattery from a younger female journalist. Now that may be an entirely unfair picture but it certainly has those connotations. On balance one has to agree with DPF that an affair is highly unlikely.

    I also agree with DPF that this has the potential to be a classic own goal for Vance killing any trust politicians may have had in her as a political journalist. Perhaps she should move to sports reporting.

    A by-election in Ohariu perhaps? what does that mean for National even assuming they win.

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  100. Black with a Vengeance (1,552 comments) says:

    Aren’t Labour looking for a senior press sec…a career Ad Vance ?

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  101. unpcnzcougar (52 comments) says:

    Mark, you are correct in how Dunne comes out of this looking. I suspect he is happy with that as the truth is so much worse.

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  102. orewa1 (428 comments) says:

    Mark – “linger like a fart in a lift.” Love it – now I have to find ways to inject it in conversations.

    But I dont agree this will be bad for Vance. Assuming this was a silly male infatuation rather than affair, her worst sin was to encourage it for professional advantage. Hands up the professional woman who hasn’t done that, or the man who hasn’t been on the receiving end.

    Bottom line is that journalists need readers just as much as they need sources. As DPF says, she has suddenly become a household name. Her readership will increase, and with it her value to those politicians who appreciate and have the intellect and moral strength to handle genuine talent.

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  103. Black with a Vengeance (1,552 comments) says:

    Sam Lotu Iiga
    is a man who loves to linger
    like a fart in a lift
    when the wind starts to shift
    you’ll find he’ll be licking his finger

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  104. Johnboy (15,021 comments) says:

    The really amazing thing about Vance is that she is not awfully beautiful.

    http://www.google.co.nz/search?q=andrea+vance&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=h5qyUZmzBYqkigfe-IGADQ&sqi=2&ved=0CAcQ_AUoAQ&biw=1512&bih=885#facrc=_&imgrc=VH0sxwysu8DO1M%3A%3B3bMlf2pyCkeZ-M%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fi1.wp.com%252Fwww.whaleoil.co.nz%252Fwp-content%252Fuploads%252F2013%252F06%252F8769980.jpg%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.whaleoil.co.nz%252Ftag%252Fandrea-vance%252F%3B2604%3B3822

    Still to capture the heart of a funny looking bloke like Dunne I guess she didn’t have to be! :)

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  105. Johnboy (15,021 comments) says:

    Have you been getting limerick lessons from Dennis Horne….. Off white with attitude? :)

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  106. Black with a Vengeance (1,552 comments) says:

    Nah my whiterside is Irish :)

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  107. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    Nah my whiterside is Irish,/i>

    There is always a redeeming feature for everyone.

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  108. Johnboy (15,021 comments) says:

    There once was a Murri from Eire
    Who let racists get into his hair
    It required the whole night
    And gave him a fright
    To click we were pulling his pair ! :)

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  109. Black with a Vengeance (1,552 comments) says:

    And some German ?

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  110. Black with a Vengeance (1,552 comments) says:

    A cracka ass boy named John
    could never figure out what was wrong
    With his keyboard and type
    he’d believe all the hype
    while continuously fiddling his schlong :)

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  111. Johnboy (15,021 comments) says:

    Und swartsch mit ze curly hair
    Ein ze superior air
    Thought he could patter
    His colonial betters
    His efforts are only just fair

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  112. Pete George (22,868 comments) says:

    More on the Greens (ansd Labour) jumping on Winston’s prosecution bandwagon at No Right Turn:

    Firstly, the idea that this leak breached the Crimes Act is utterly ridiculous. Both the offences of espionage (which peters accused Dunne of in Parliament on Thursday) and wrongful communication of official information require that the information in question “be likely to prejudice seriously the security or defence of New Zealand”.

    John Key was quite clear in his press conference that that was not the case, and there is no possible way in which the leak of material exposing GCSB wrongdoing could be seen in that light. So, the idea that an offence has been commited is pure bullshit, and the Greens should not be trading in it.

    Secondly, such prosecutions are highly dubious in a democracy. Quite apart from philosophical objections (like treason, they get the relationship between citizen and state exactly backwards and are a relic of feudalism), leaks are the lifeblood of democracy. And the more sensitive and embarrassing the leak, the greater the public interest in protecting the leaker.

    If Dunne leaked this report, he should be viewed as a hero, not a criminal (I take the government’s assertion that the report would be published anyway with a grain of salt, given that they broke their word that they would publish the Inspector-General’s report into the same wrongdoing).

    A party like the Greens, committed to democracy and freedom, should be encouraging such leaks, not calling for them to be punished – especially given the shit we’re learning about what the GCSB’s foreign masters have been getting up to.

    http://norightturn.blogspot.com.au/2013/06/the-greens-should-support-leakers-not.html

    There’s many facets to this issue.

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  113. David Garrett (6,463 comments) says:

    Deary me PG, are all 201 current members of United Future sad older men who can’t see and grasp that in politics – sadly – perception and appearance IS reality?

    Here’s my take, after sleeping on it and talking to a couple of people (Unlike yours Pete, my sources are somewhat more terrestrial)…The poor sap got infatuated with the bint…she led him on…he said more than he should have…end of.

    The witheld e-mails will be rather sad tat from a man past middle age who is too flattered by the familiarity (“Good on you” said one tweet of hers to him) and flirtacious behaviour of a much younger woman to see what is actually happening…Remember the e-mails between that Indian honey trap Labour set for Richard Worth and the silly old duffer? Him wistfully asking if she wished something bad would happen to the husband so they could be together…Dollars to donuts these sad indictments of older male folly will be something very similar…and nothing more.

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  114. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    Peter George

    To stop you pulling all your hair out, let it go ,your man can not come back from this ever. He will quietly slope off to a couple of boards that the PM will find for him and one of the nations greatest whores will be consigned to history.

    It doesn’t matter who leaked , Dunne is toast , you as possibly the only paid up member of UF are fighting a rearguard action that makes the allies defence of Singapore look like victory – Singapore was a lot like this actually,- massive incompetence and arrogance which lead to its demise. But presently you are making yourself a contender as the next saddest dude in the country after Dunne.

    I can imagine things are not exactly tickety boo at the Dunne household this afternoon either. ” You see dear its nothing like you think but I don’t think its a good idea you see the emails either, you could be kidnapped and tortured so its best I just keep them to myself, nothing to see here lets move along.”

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  115. David Garrett (6,463 comments) says:

    Edit: the tweet was “Well done you”…subtext: “You old devil, Peter you…” When would any woman last have communicated with him like that?

    And in a TWEET FFS…e-mail is bad enough…

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  116. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    “You old devil, Peter you…”

    You can imagine the bantam puffing his chest out at that.

    And in a TWEET FFS…

    As league management maestro James Banaghan is fond of saying ” You can’t put brains in a statue”

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  117. unpcnzcougar (52 comments) says:

    DG – Deary me PG, are all 201 current members of United Future sad older men who can’t see and grasp that in politics – sadly – perception and appearance IS reality?

    Ditto for ACT.

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  118. David Garrett (6,463 comments) says:

    cougar: Well, you clearly are neither a member of ACT nor know anyone close to the game…I would go so far as to opine that part of ACT’s problem is there are TOO MANY 24 year old twerps in ACT’s membership who have higher degrees in economics, but no mortgages or families, or any experience of lifes many tragedies to give them any grounding in the real world…we have a problem with women, it’s true…but again – perhaps surprisingly – focus groups show that Rodney is still seen as a likeable naughty boy by the matrons of Remuera…God knows how Dunne is/was seen in Ohariu…even before this debacle…

    PG can tell us…he’s very close to the action…

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  119. Pete George (22,868 comments) says:

    You tell yourself DG, you make out you know everything about me.

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  120. Chuck Bird (4,687 comments) says:

    Just heard on the news the police are taking the NZF compliant seriously as they should.

    It is interesting watching the change on ipredict. If Dunne had not been so arrogant on the anti-smacking legislation he could have still had a future. He decided to go into coalition with a conservative group but wanted everything his way and he is paying the price.

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  121. David Garrett (6,463 comments) says:

    No no PG, you misunderstand…Noone can take your in-depth knowledge of the workings of UF away from you…certainly not a disgraced former member such as me…

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  122. joana (1,983 comments) says:

    Peter Dunne was known in Ohariu to be a very , very hard working MP. He was a great asset to the community..He is the only MP I ever sought help from. I’ll always remember what he did for me..There was a scenario that you went to him with a problem on Saturday morning..it was sorted out by Tuesday /Wednesday of the next week.

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  123. Pete George (22,868 comments) says:

    Yeah, whatever DG. The really funny thing with your little game is this year I’ve had more contact with Act members and management and am more aware (first hand) of current Act workings than UF.

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  124. Paul Marsden (987 comments) says:

    The elephant in the room when looking for an answer to Dunne’s actions, is to extract his answer as to why he “thought about releasing the report”.

    Get that, and all should be revealed.

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  125. Turps () says:

    What effect will these developments have on the Speaker’s ruling about Peter Dunne and the status of the UFP?

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  126. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,812 comments) says:

    It’s at times like these I like to rewatch my “House of Cards” DVDs.

    Little Girls love their Daddy.

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  127. rouppe (919 comments) says:

    I believe that Vance has used sexual manipulation to get more out of Dunne than he would otherwise have disclosed. Some have called that professional working of a source. I disagree. A professional would not use their tits to develop a source. Vance has then hung him out to dry. That makes Vance a pretty low piece of scum as far as I’m concerned.

    As to what the remaining undisclosed emails would have revealed, it can only be one of three things.
    1) That Dunne is lying (as DPF believes) and did disclose the report or important parts of it
    2) That what Dunne has disclosed is something else, just as damning. Maybe Urewera information…
    3) That they were rooting, or meeting in private hotels, or otherwise in an entirely inappropriate relationship for both of them.

    As others have also said, why you would send damning emails from a parliamentary server? That is pretty dumb.

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  128. Albert_Ross (252 comments) says:

    Question: Is there a Mrs Dunne? Is it possible he’s trying to protect her?

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  129. anticorruptionnz (169 comments) says:

    Has any one thought of Peter Dunne as a whistle blower. perhaps the concealment of corruption by the government became too much for him and he believed that the public had a right to know. http://www.anticorruption.co.nz/2013/06/10/we-should-encourage-whistleblowers-not-condem-the/

    New Zealand keeps its least corrupt status by playing its cards close to the chest and totally ignoring whistle blowers while allowing rich business men to buy their way out of criminal charges http://www.transparency.net.nz/2013/06/10/we-dont-have-bribery-in-new-zealand-because-we-condone-it/

    Lets be the least corrupt country by exposing corruption and dealing with the vermin in the open . If you ignore fraud , bribery and corruption it will fester and grow and craw out of the wood work and we will all be exposed as liars.

    Corruption kept under wraps is not conducive of an open and transparent and credible government.

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