Hosking vs Norman Round 2

June 13th, 2013 at 6:30 pm by David Farrar

responds to Russel Norman’s claims his figures were accurate:

Well, it seems we have an explanation for where Green Party co-leader got his “40,000 jobs lost in ” claim.

It is not a good explanation, but at least it is one.

The claim, made in a press release after the release of the latest manufacturing data on Monday, caused no little head scratching.

It came in a press released headed “Manufacturing languishes for four years under National” and went on to claim, “there’s no signs of clawing back any of the 40,000 jobs lost in the manufacturing sector since 2008”.

It did not seem an unreasonable inference that Dr Norman was talking of 40,000 jobs lost since the change of government. Indeed, that was clearly the inference he wanted people to draw.

The trouble is, none of the three measures of employment back this up, and NBR ONLINE took the time to explain why.

The NBR ONLINE story  prompted something of an online debate, especially on Twitter, where Dr Norman demanded an apology and then conceded he was taking his figures from March-June 2008.

As his earlier statement had carefully avoided saying this, NBR ONLINE does not really feel any apology is owed.

It’s pretty easy. Since 2008 doesn’t include half of 2008. Dr Norman could have said since June 2008 but chose not to. The reason is he wanted to deceive people that the 40,000 jobs lost had happened under National, rather than it being 20,000.

99 people out of 100 would take “Since 2008″ to be since December 2008, not since June 2008.

Hosking also makes another useful point:

In principle, politicians really should stop talking New Zealand down. It is shallow, cheap and easy, and it is immensely destructive.

This also applies to politicians’ staff, and to economic and political commentators. New Zealand public discourse was dominated for much of the 1970s to 1990s by an all-encompassing and corrosively negative commentary about this country’s economic prospects.

It did a huge amount of damage to the nation’s morale and skills base. At least it was, at the time, based on a real economic crisis.

When such corrosive negativity is based, as this is, on claims of a bogus “crisis” it is particularly despicable.

It is one thing to point out that the manufacturing industry has had job losses. But for a couple of years now the opposition have been trying to literally manufacture a “crisis” in manufacturing.

As an aside, jobs have grown in manufacturing over the past six months by around 5000 – which means even Dr Norman’s claim of “no signs of any clawing back” of jobs lost is just not true. 

But the timing of that 2004 drop in employment is highly significant. It is also when New Zealand firms started picking up their capital investment, particularly in plant and machinery.

In short, a shift began towards more capital intensive and less labour intensive work.

Let’s burn all the machines, and we’ll have full employment!

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57 Responses to “Hosking vs Norman Round 2”

  1. itstricky (1,770 comments) says:

    Greens versus NBR. The eternal battle of who’s got the best statistics manipulation. Who would have thought? Thing I don’t get is sure, it’s not 40k it’s 20k but why is that any better?
    Are you trying to infer that 20k were lost under the previous Government in six months?

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  2. Johnboy (15,903 comments) says:

    Norman is a silly little squinty-eyed-Aussie wanker.

    Why are sensible right-wing-steady-as-you-go-NZ-government-apparatchicks so worried about him? :)

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  3. orewa1 (428 comments) says:

    Obviously some elements of manufacturing are in crisis. Examples include the blacksmiths, typewriter makers, and the people who imported CKD (completely knocked down) automobile packs from Japan so they could be reassembled here at three times the cost.

    Other parts of manufacturing have been successful in surviving the economic restructuring, either by changing their business model within the same product group, or by switching to manufacture a range of products where NZ has a sustainable economic advantage.

    The sin of successive governments is not that they have allowed sunset industries to run down. It is that they have failed to modernize their education and immigration policies to synchronise with their industrial policies. We continue to have zillions of people entering the country, or coming off the end of our education system, who are hopelessly unequipped to make a living in the more sophisticated economy we have created.

    Until we address that issue we will have discontent, inequality, and the risk of serious social unrest. That’s the area opposition parties should focus on.

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  4. dishy (241 comments) says:

    Johnboy, the answer to your question is that there are enough gullible voters in NZ to be sucked in by wolves in Sheep’s clothing.
    Norman’s lying just gives him an extra advantage.

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  5. Shunda barunda (2,977 comments) says:

    National might actually have a chance if stormin Normin keeps this up.

    I agree with the treasonous rhetoric rotting our future bit too, what arseholes – “if we can’t rule you, we will destroy you”.

    Noice.

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  6. Johnboy (15,903 comments) says:

    Fuck you get a minus karma for calling Norman a squinty eyed little Aussie prick on KB, the paragon of right wing views, no wonder NZ is fucked! :)

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  7. lofty (1,305 comments) says:

    “if we can’t rule you, we will destroy you”.

    +10

    Fits like a glove, may I use it elsewhere ?

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  8. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    squared it up for you JB

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  9. Johnboy (15,903 comments) says:

    Always knew you were as straight as a die PEB! :)

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  10. Johnboy (15,903 comments) says:

    What do you know of folk named after a popular clown? :)

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  11. Alan Johnstone (1,087 comments) says:

    This post is missing a very important number, how many manufacturing jobs have been lost since Dec 2008 ?

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  12. JC (942 comments) says:

    In the 1950s both here and in the US manufacturing was about 30% of GDP.. these days manufacturing is down to about 11% in both countries.

    The reason is productivity improvements and the introduction of new jobs in other parts of the economy, ie “creative destruction”.

    A month or so back John Key probably became the first PM to baldly state the facts about employment.. he said that every quarter (I think) about 40,000 jobs are destroyed and another 40,000 are created.

    Thats the pattern of a reasonably well functioning economy.. it responds to signals from the market, the workforce, the politicians etc and adds or subtracts jobs or branches out into something new.. you get balance from a market economy and depression in all its forms from one mired in Tolpuddle.

    JC

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  13. mandk (949 comments) says:

    Alan Johnstone,

    I posted on Tuesday that the number is about -20,000.

    However, total employment increased by roughly the same amount between 2008Q4 and 2013Q1. Not great, but not bad, considering the GFC.

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  14. thedavincimode (6,606 comments) says:

    Norman is a silly little squinty-eyed-Aussie wanker.

    That may well be the case, but more importantly, he is a whining whinging bullshitting little cunt.

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  15. Alan Johnstone (1,087 comments) says:

    Thanks for the number mandk. I have no major interest in manufacturing employment, just thought the article was flawed.

    Off topic, but is Rodney Hide thinking about running for Mayor? I got polled on this topic today and I was asked if I’d vote for him against Len

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  16. s.russell (1,592 comments) says:

    We must destroy the country in order to save it…

    Who would have thought Norman would be inspired by the Vietnam era US military???

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  17. thedavincimode (6,606 comments) says:

    s.russell

    Put it in context. He is a Muldoonist after all.

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  18. lofty (1,305 comments) says:

    Jaheeezuz Johnboy I have had to do a PEB and square you up yet again….can you keep your comments a little less inflammatory please…..not!!!!

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  19. Reid (16,213 comments) says:

    One thing about Norman is he’s the sort of person of whom the more you see the less you like him.

    Therefore when he does get into power it’s going to be about 5 mins before he proves to be an absolute liability for Liarbore because very single time he appears on telly or on radio people will have a negative reaction to him which will show up in the polls from day one of the new administration.

    And sadly, because Liarbore are idiots and haven’t detected this quality in their estwhile partner and because Norman’s an ego-driven maniac who will demand a high-profile portfolio, they’ll all scrabble around for ages wondering why the polls are going so very badly as Wussell and the west of them try makeover after makeover in desperate but futile attempts to stem the tide of appalling twagedy, for them.

    Some might say it’s a good thing the lefties are going to be totally, completely and utterly fucked in every single possible way, even before they’ve been elected. I couldn’t possibly comment.

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  20. ross69 (3,652 comments) says:

    •The number of jobs in manufacturing has fallen by nearly 40,000, or 16.7%
    •The number of businesses in manufacturing has reduced by over 1,300, or 6.1%
    •The output of manufacturing, as measured by GDP, has fallen by 9%
    •The annual value of manufactured exports is down by 12.4%
    •Profits in the manufacturing sector have fallen by 17.4%

    http://manufacturinginquiry.org.nz/facts-figures/

    It seems the Right are happy with the status quo. What a surprise.

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  21. greenjacket (452 comments) says:

    Our manufacturing business received a letter from Greens-Labour asking us to make a submission to their ‘inquiry’ into the crisis in manufacturing. As a manufacturer, we thought that we would be able to assist – hey, they asked us for our views, so we wrote them a letter back. So we responded if the Greens and Labour were serious about helping manufacturing, then the best things they could do would be to push further free trade agreements, get rid of a lot of government regulation and ridiculous red-tape, and improve labour market flexibility. Oddly, we never heard back from them.
    Greens-Labour are not interested in governing – they just want to play political games.

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  22. toad (3,674 comments) says:

    DPF:

    Let’s burn all the machines, and we’ll have full employment!

    Wrong again.

    How about Government investing in retraining and creating jobs for the people who are replaced by machines and made redundant?

    But that does not fit the Nats’ neo-liberal agenda which relies on keeping wages low through high unemployment.

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  23. thedavincimode (6,606 comments) says:

    I know that was you toad.

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  24. Than (449 comments) says:

    @ross69 – Without accepting or rejecting your statistics (every party spins the numbers to suit themselves) can I ask you this; do you believe those numbers would be better had a Labour (or Labour/Green) government been in power since 2008? And if so, exactly what policies would they have implemented to achieve that?

    Criticising is easy. Actually offering constructive alternatives is more difficult.

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  25. toad (3,674 comments) says:

    @ross69 9:38 pm

    The Right don’t give a shit about manufacturing or employment. Neither of those enhance their wealth.

    Start talking about regulating the property market or the finance market (or, in NZ the electricity market) and the Right goes apeshit.

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  26. Johnboy (15,903 comments) says:

    toads right. Instead of embedding software mining programs throughout the public service we should hire more minimum waged workers to write down all the nasty stuff they encounter while reading the emails of the filthy capitalists (and their cronies) ! :)

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  27. toad (3,674 comments) says:

    @Than 9:49 pm

    Well let’s start with a capital gains tax, which will incentivise investment into productive enterprise that employs people rather than property speculation that does not.

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  28. Than (449 comments) says:

    @toad – A CGT only became Labour policy late in the 2011 election campaign. For the 2014 election, it’s anyone’s guess whether Labour will be in favour of a CGT or not. I’ll admit I don’t know the Green position on a CGT; if you could provide a reference I would be grateful.

    Political positions aside, the economic effects of a CGT are very much disputed. Claiming it as a source of jobs is tenuous at best.

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  29. Johnboy (15,903 comments) says:

    toadie. Have you jokers at the greenie party started a whip round for the op to move Russel’s eyes further apart?

    If you’ve raised enough to pay for that I’m happy to chuck in a few bucks for the second op to get his Aussie squeak removed! :)

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  30. davidp (3,574 comments) says:

    Food processing is part of the manufacturing sector. What did the Labour Party have to say about the creation of NZ jobs when Heinz relocated some manufacturing from Australia to NZ?…

    “Heinz Wattie has already ditched 300 jobs across Australia and supposedly was bringing them to New Zealand. But not for good New Zealand jobs. These days, a Heinz Watties worker is just as likely to end up being employed by Allied Workforce – a temporary labour hire contractor, and be paid minimum wage – doing the same job directly employed and unionised workers used to do for a whole lot less. Perhaps the brighter future we were promised involves rolling ciggies for Australia? It certainly seems to involve low wages.”

    Unless the workers are unionised and contributing a cut of their wages to the Labour Party, they treat manufacturing workers with contempt.

    http://blog.labour.org.nz/2012/04/18/nz-the-new-low-wage-frontier/

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  31. OneTrack (2,973 comments) says:

    toad – maybe you could tell us what the Reds are actually going to do for manufacturing and employment. I think I have got that they are going to put the company tax rate up. That should kill off a few of them (along with a lot of non-manufacturing companies but we aren’t talking about them, are we). Then I expect they will get hit with the carbon tax. That should drive a few more of them to the wall (or off to Australia and the economy friendly Liberal government). Then, for any of them still hanging on, the living wage will force them to lay staff (might be cheaper for them to buy some more machines and increase automation).

    Then there are minor companies like Weta that need to bring in overseas resources. Well we know that wont be allowed so either the work will be done off-shore or Weta might think it is better to shift their operation offshore also. As for Peter Jackson, well we know the left simply wont allow him to make another film in NZ (sorry The Democratic Peoples Republic of Aotearoa).

    Then I imagine that there well be a slew of regulations which mean employers wont be able to fire a bad employee even if they kill someone. I am sure it will be wonderful. Might not encourage employers to actually hire anyone though. Will encourage a few more SMEs to pack it in and head for the airport though.

    Plus all the RONs project will be aborted. Not sure what will happen to those guys. A lot of them have saleable skills so will be on the next plane out. Others, not so mobile.

    So, do we expect the resurrection of NZ Railways with people working on the tracks again. And other people can be building little sheds beside the track for the workers to live in, and they will all be union members, and on strike all the time. Won’t it be lovely.

    So where is the growth in Green jobs going to come from. Have the Red party actually identified a real “green job” yet or i that only rhetoric for the useful idiots.

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  32. Johnboy (15,903 comments) says:

    However toadie. I utterly refuse to pay for hair dye to stop him from being a ginga wanker! :)

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  33. toad (3,674 comments) says:

    @OneTrack 10:16 pm

    toad – maybe you could tell us what the Reds are actually going to do for manufacturing and employment.

    Hey, I am Green, not Labour, so can’t tell you anything about what the “Reds” are going to do, apart from the joint announcement re NZ Power, which still has differences to be ironed out between the Greens and Labour.

    If you want to know what “the Reds” are wanting to do, ask a Labour aligned commenter, not me.

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  34. Johnboy (15,903 comments) says:

    Or just skin toadie to expose his red innards! :)

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  35. toad (3,674 comments) says:

    @Johnboy I hope you had a good orgasm while typing your 10:12 and 10:23 pm comments.

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  36. Johnboy (15,903 comments) says:

    I’ll be wiping the jism off my keyboard with a ton of blotting paper when we deport that sad little squeakie, ginga, commo, wanker back to OZ toadie

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  37. Shunda barunda (2,977 comments) says:

    I’ll be wiping the jism off my keyboard with a ton of blotting paper when we deport that sad little squeakie, ginga, commo, wanker back to OZ toadie

    Good gracious, there’s a comment for the permanent archives! :)

    History students will marvel over this in 100 years time!

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  38. Johnboy (15,903 comments) says:

    I’m happy to license it free of charge to any students that have not been subverted by left wing teachers Shunda! :)

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  39. Johnboy (15,903 comments) says:

    Is there nothing better to do on Thursday night down on the coast than be on KB Shunda?

    Just like Wainui I guess……but with bigger mountains! :)

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  40. Shunda barunda (2,977 comments) says:

    Yeah, well the Mrs posted this on her facebook page this evening:

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn1/527865_10151107320258465_1217313552_n.jpg

    So not much ‘amusement’ in that quarter! :)

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  41. Shunda barunda (2,977 comments) says:

    Just like Wainui I guess……but with bigger mountains!

    Bigger sheep too!

    But we call them “cows” :)

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  42. Johnboy (15,903 comments) says:

    My sheep never wear bear traps near their significant bits.

    Also they have no concept of electricity other than the fence.

    I put it down to proper house training Shunda.

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  43. Shunda barunda (2,977 comments) says:

    Unfortunately you can’t house train Coast girls.

    They also tend to change with the weather, kinda like ware-wolves do with the moon :)

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  44. jackkerouacsnephew (27 comments) says:

    I would normally vote for NZ First next election, but I have to be careful.
    There are some saying that Peters is aligning towards the obvious victor NZ Nat Government .
    But he Peters also said NZ First is wedded to the repatriation of Mighty river power.
    Then he buried Dunne.
    What do you think.
    I think NZ First 7% and a Nat party NZ First uncomfortable coalition

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  45. jackkerouacsnephew (27 comments) says:

    which ever way you look at it a Labour Green Coalition will not occur,
    New Zealanders are not that dumb,
    Print money here Norman Australia, lets see what it is worth you child

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  46. Grendel (991 comments) says:

    Hey toad,

    >
    Well let’s start with a capital gains tax, which will incentivise investment into productive enterprise that employs people rather than property speculation that does not.
    >

    i appreciate this is the current green slogan and you guys are doing your best to link speculation with evil but stop lieing for once. property speculation, ie buying for a short term profit is already a taxable activity.

    you guys want to tax property investment, which is long term.

    also, why is property speculaton not productive?

    every speculator i know spends a bunch of money on tradesman and materials doing up the property before the agent sells it again. why are you against tradesman, carpet and wallpaper sellers making money?

    why do the greens hate people who work in the property industry?

    oh and if property investment is evil, why did the green mps super fund invest in… investment property in wellington? it cannot have been so you guys could double dip from the taxpayer right? you must have been waiting for a tax so you could invest in something productive i guess.

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  47. Right of way is Way of Right (1,129 comments) says:

    You only need to look at the plummeting popularity of Julia Gillard to see the devastating effect of having an Aussie “Ranga” in charge!

    (Yes, I know she is actually Welsh, but I took a leaf from the MSM and the Green Party itself, and decided to conveniently ignore a key fact that did not fit with my assertation, in the hope that no-one would bother to check! Hey Clint, How’s that working for us?)

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  48. Peter (1,688 comments) says:

    Well let’s start with a capital gains tax, which will incentivise investment into productive enterprise that employs people rather than property speculation that does not.

    How will it incentivise productive enterprise when a capital gains tax applies there, too?

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  49. Peter (1,688 comments) says:

    Can you ask Clint what a “green job” is, Toad?

    I’d really like to know.

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  50. Manolo (13,517 comments) says:

    It’s fun to see a feeble toad defending an even feebler comrade Norman. Laughter all round.

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  51. Peter (1,688 comments) says:

    So, there are no examples of green jobs. Perhaps Clint is on a plane somewhere and can’t be contacted.

    I asked Google

    Google came up with this:

    http://www.greens.org.nz/sites/default/files/gp_jobsbooklet_20final.pdf

    It’s a little vague.

    Green jobs involve installing installation, exporting green technology (not defined) and forcing the government to buy locally produced green stuff (not defined).

    Hey Clint? Clint! We need some detail, Clint!

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  52. Paulus (2,597 comments) says:

    Norman is a lying little sod.

    Why give him air to breath his crap.

    It is only the media which adore him and his lies

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  53. RF (1,366 comments) says:

    Hey… Cut Toad some slack. Someone has handed him a bar of soap and he does not know what it is. Maybe he should carry
    it outside next time is rains.

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  54. itstricky (1,770 comments) says:

    Hmmm. Come back to check for answers.

    Let me see, 20 down votes for asking a serious question about why 20k jobs had gone, where they had gone to and why anyone would be proud of that.

    20 up votes for calling someone a ‘squint-eyed-Aussie-wanker’

    After my first post here, someone replied to me to say that they preferred KB over Stuff/Herald/Whale/Standard/all-the-other-pretenders because the comments were more logical, well-thought and the general standard was a lot higher. Pretty much blows that one out of the water.

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  55. expat (4,048 comments) says:

    With all due respect itstricky the reason 20k jobs were down was most very likely to do with a global meltdown, and any joke about Norman being an interloping ginga Aussie cunt is a goodun.

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  56. itstricky (1,770 comments) says:

    So what have they (the Government) done to address the 20k lost?

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  57. hj (6,827 comments) says:

    also, why is property speculaton not productive?

    every speculator i know spends a bunch of money on tradesman and materials doing up the property before the agent sells it again. why are you against tradesman, carpet and wallpaper sellers making money?

    …….
    because asset inflation isn’t wealth creation, it simply creates a hole that has to be filled by (say) first home owner or tenant. Either way someone ends up carrying you on their back.

    “Tonight, a pumped de Roos tells his audience that he wants people to invest in property and write to him 12 months down the track and tell him they’ve “made one million or three million, or you’ve got 16 properties, or we’re taking six months off because our cash flow now exceeds our outflow!” He says, “I don’t know any other activity where the rewards are so huge. If you want to invest a million dollars in the sharemarket, you need a million dollars. If you want to invest a million in real estate, you only need $100,000.”

    You can buy one property, get it revalued, use the equity to buy another property and then buy another and another. “And you do it all with OPM. Other people’s money. OPM. It’s like being high on drugs!” What’s more, the wonder of depreciation claims on the building and contents means “the government subsidises your investment! It’s delightful!”

    Listener House of the Rising Sum Pamela Stirling.

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