NBR calls Russel out on his porky

June 11th, 2013 at 3:00 pm by David Farrar

proclaimed:

“There’s no signs of clawing back any of the 40,000 jobs lost in the sector since 2008.

Rob Hoksing at NBR fisks this claim:

Manufacturing has lost 40,000 jobs, Green co-leader Russel Norman proclaimed yesterday when the latest manufacturing data came out.

He might be right – if you go back to the late 1990s.

However, Dr Norman claimed the sector had lost 40,000 jobs since the current government took office at the end of 2008.

We’ll call that bogus and leave readers to use shorter or pithier epithets if they so wish.

So who is right? Russel Norman or Rob Hoksing?

The full-time equivalent employee numbers, which are included in Statistics New Zealand’s quarterly employment survey, show 18,000 fewer working in the industry over the past 17 quarters since National took office. 

The previous 17 quarters show a 16,700 drop. Remember this was also, mostly, prior to the global financial crisis, in a much more different – not to say optimistic – environment.

The filled job figures, also contained in the quarterly employment survey, show a 20,400 fall in jobs in the most recent 17 quarters, and 18,300 in the equivalent previous period.

So if you go by the QES, Norman is out by over 100%.

The official unemployment measure, the household labour force, shows a much larger difference.

 The number of people employed in manufacturing fell 9400 since the change of government. The previous 17 quarters shows a loss of more than double that number of jobs, by 19,900.

And from the HLFS stats, Norman is out by 300%.

All these figures paint the same picture with a slightly different emphasis: the sector has been employing fewer people for a long time. 

They also show Dr Norman is just making numbers up. 

Making a lot of things up lately to manufacture a crisis in manufacturing.

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16 Responses to “NBR calls Russel out on his porky”

  1. rouppe (962 comments) says:

    So why is it he doesn’t get publicly humiliated in parliament with his lies when he shouts and jumps around whenever he thinks someone else has lied. The Right is too bloody soft. More jugular action is needed

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  2. tom1980 (40 comments) says:

    How can anyone be stupid enough to vote for this dishonest, nasty clown?

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  3. wreck1080 (3,863 comments) says:

    Yes but he has largely got away with lies as many people do not read this blog.

    The media should have a front page story on how a political player has got this so wrong. But, we won’t see this.

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  4. Manolo (13,517 comments) says:

    Hosking’s piece should be reprinted by the Huruld and DomPost, rags always quick to promote the communist Norman.

    If not, why not?

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  5. thedavincimode (6,606 comments) says:

    Time to update the hoary old joke about still being able to hear whining when the engines on a plane load of poms have been turned off. This whining whinging little Aussie scrote seems hell-bent on replacing Shearer as desperate fuckwit of the year. Shearer, in comparison, is looking positively statesmanlike. LOL, how could that be?

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  6. gravedodger (1,545 comments) says:

    One statistic that is clear to over 90% of the adult population is that manufacture of absolute bullshit is thriving on planet melon.

    Pity about the resources that are wasted in this enterprise but that is just another cost of doing business I guess.

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  7. pete (428 comments) says:

    From the QES

    2008Q2 205,600
    2012Q3 165,600

    So the 40,000 figure is certainly not “manufactured”.

    Russel has done a bit of a cherry-pick; DPF and Rob Hosking have lied about him making things up. I’m calling this one for Russel.

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  8. mandk (945 comments) says:

    pete – why do you quote 2008Q2 figures when the Nats didn’t come to power until 2008Q4, and why do you quote 2012Q3 figures when 2013Q1 data is available?
    Lies or cherry picking?

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  9. mandk (945 comments) says:

    the numbers from the QES are:

    FTEs
    2008Q4 = 189,200
    2013Q1 = 171,800
    Diff = – 17,400

    Filled jobs
    2008Q4 = 213,300
    2013Q1 = 190,600
    Diff = -22,700

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  10. pete (428 comments) says:

    @mandk: I’ve pointed out the source of the 40,000 claim. If you read carefully you’ll see that I’ve even called it a cherry-pick. The point is that the numbers do come from the data, contrary to DPF and Rob’s misrepresentations.

    Note Rob misquotes Russel when he says “Dr Norman claimed the sector had lost 40,000 jobs since the current government took office at the end of 2008″. The actual press release says “since 2008″, the rest is Rob’s invention.

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  11. mandk (945 comments) says:

    pete,
    I was asking if you were lying or cherry picking when you quoted your numbers.
    By using 2008Q2 and 2012Q3, you were obviously being economical with the truth.

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  12. MikeG (425 comments) says:

    have a look at:
    http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2013/06/11/the-employment-decline-exists-lets-just-be-careful-interpreting-it/

    Who’s fact checking the fact checkers?

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  13. pete (428 comments) says:

    @mandk: your poor reading comprehension doesn’t make me dishonest.

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  14. mandk (945 comments) says:

    pete,

    Norman didn’t refer to the dates you chose with reference to the QES,
    nor did DPF,
    nor did Hosking (as far as I can tell),
    and there is no logical reason for picking them.

    So the question remains as to why you chose them, if not to present a false picture.

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  15. pete (428 comments) says:

    Dr Norman clarified on Twitter last night that he was talking about “filled jobs” in the QES, not “full-time equivalent”.

    The data for that is here.

    2008Q1 228,300
    2008Q2 230,800
    2008Q3 216,500
    2008Q4 213,300

    2012Q1 196,800
    2012Q2 192,200
    2012Q3 185,200
    2012Q4 186,700
    2013Q1 190,600

    So I’m withdrawing my accusation against Dr Norman of cherry-picking.

    So, does anyone think DPF is going to apologise for calling Dr Norman a liar?

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  16. oob (196 comments) says:

    “Gimme me fwag back! Gimme me fwag back!”

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