“We’re going to be doing exactly what we are doing now”

June 26th, 2013 at 3:00 pm by David Farrar

In response to the 6% drop in the Herald Digipoll, has said:

‘We’re going to be doing exactly what we are doing now,”

This response was greeted with huge cheers from all National MPs. They hope Labour will carry on doing exactly what they are doing.

He fended off questions about what it would take for him to step down as leader.

Shearer can’t stand down. There is too much of a risk that David Cunliffe would win the battle to be his successor. This is as anathema to the ABC old guard faction as Kevin Rudd is to the ALP Caucus. It doesn’t mean they won’t stomach it eventually, but they are not desperate enough yet.

says that time has come:

Is it time for Labour to rethink the unthinkable and think David Cunliffe? Probably not. At least not yet. Labour’s MPs would not be human, however, if they were not asking themselves – if not each other – the Cunliffe question after the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey. …

The poll is a horror story of Stephen King proportions for Labour. The party has dropped close to six percentage points since the last such survey in March to register just under 31 per cent support.

David Shearer’s rating as preferred Prime Minister has been slashed by a third and is back into “also ran” territory.

The survey uncannily resembles the result of the last election, leaving the observer to draw the obvious conclusion – that Labour has gone nowhere since.

Except David Shearer was quoted as saying that the long-term trend has been positive for Labour. So I graphed the results of the Herald Digipoll since the election.

heralddigipolls

 

If that is a positive trend for Labour, it’s an unusual one.

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26 Responses to ““We’re going to be doing exactly what we are doing now””

  1. alex Masterley (1,439 comments) says:

    The graph is upside down. that’s why.

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  2. bhudson (4,720 comments) says:

    The answer can be found in the Greens and Labour’s loathing of profits – so they’re on a “race to the bottom”

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  3. RF (1,131 comments) says:

    To steal a quote from that Micky Mouse fella over at the standard. You know – the one with a face like a boiled boot. ” Time to stock up on pop corn”.

    An’t life a bitch !!!!

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  4. Alan Johnstone (915 comments) says:

    All it shows is that Labour / Greens / NZ First are fishing in the same pool for votes.

    If National had taken some of the votes Labour had lost it would have mattered, but they haven’t.

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  5. Alan Wilkinson (1,798 comments) says:

    Labour’s sole achievement is to make Winston look good. Admittedly that is a major accomplishment.

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  6. Andrew (67 comments) says:

    Perhaps David Shearer was referring to Pundit’s poll of polls, where the trend over time shows growing support for Labour.

    http://www.pundit.co.nz/content/poll-of-polls/

    Pundit have not updated this since April though.

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  7. Alan Johnstone (915 comments) says:

    Have the methodologies changed in this polling over the last couple of years ?

    Throughout 2008 – 2011 National polled in the low ti mid 50s. At the end of that year they dropped in the high 40s and haven’t cracked 50% since.

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  8. Judith (5,660 comments) says:

    Isn’t it one of the definitions of insanity — to keep doing the same thing over and over, and expecting different results.

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  9. Andrew (67 comments) says:

    Alan @ 3.19pm – I hope not. I like their methodology :)

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  10. RRM (8,994 comments) says:

    Shearer said there would be no change in strategy.

    ”We’re going to be doing exactly what we are doing now…”

    :mrgreen: We’ve learned nothing… it’s the voters that are wrong, not our ideas about trade unions, state assets, subsidised housing and nationalised electricity industry!

    #groan

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  11. s.russell (1,486 comments) says:

    Two years ago National’s strategy was apparently to completely ignore the Opposition, run a positive campaign, and treat the election essentially as a referendum on the Government. National came within one seat of catastrophe. Next time will see a far more robust approach – signalled by some of the speeches Key has been making lately – and finely balanced polls like this will actually help because (unlike 2011) a Labour/Green/NZF/Mana Government will seem a credible threat.

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  12. Manolo (12,637 comments) says:

    How long until Cunliffe makes a move? Will Silent T dare?

    To be honest, Shearer is as boring as the most boring gray and wouldn’t get the blood running of anyone. His eloquence, his diction, his mannerisms are the problem. He has to go.

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  13. Alan Johnstone (915 comments) says:

    @ Andrew “I hope not. I like their methodology :)”

    Really? This poll is suggestive of a Labour / Green led administration, propped up by Winston, MP and Hone.

    I don’t fancy that myself. On these voting shares the only way National get home is with Dunne and Banks.

    If the Maori party has a chance to put Labour into office, it will.

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  14. doggone7 (492 comments) says:

    Accept that the chances of Labour leading the next government are close to zero. In asking why, people will come up with the disaffection and lack of identification with Shearer and his colleagues. And out of the loudly publicised issue recently with the SkyCity corporate box at the rugby came the screams about hypocrisy – Labour dancing with the devils. None louder than from John Key.

    John Key goes to China with a retinue of media to carry the heroic deeds and the importance to the country. (Things were a bit spoiled with the GCSB leaks.) John Key loves communism? John Key loves China’s human rights situation? Of course not. John Key’s hypocritical dancing with the devil is fine because he’s doing it for his political good. Shearer is not only not allowed to fraternise with those he doesn’t agree with, but is pilloried for it if he does.

    And a poll comes out and Shearer is even lower? No surprise. Just shows how weird politics is and how vacuous the populace is.

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  15. bhudson (4,720 comments) says:

    it’s the voters that are wrong

    Exactly – their position since late 2008

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  16. Andrew (67 comments) says:

    @ Alan – My view on their methodology isn’t based on this poll result. It’s based on their actual methodology.

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  17. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (528 comments) says:

    Folks – Labour/Green/NZ First/Mana combination is still on track to win the elections in 2014. So don’t be singing in the rain.

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  18. YesWeDid (1,003 comments) says:

    So this terrible poll has Labour+Greens+NZ First on 47.5% and National on 48.8%, so if the poll over estimates Nationals support by any more than 1.5% then we have a change of government.

    Given this poll had National at 50.9% just before the last election and they got 47.3% I’d say keep on ‘cheering’.

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  19. bhudson (4,720 comments) says:

    @YesWeDid,

    Keep thinking that way.

    But you do seem to ignore:

    - Winston First hates the Greens – he may well not back a Labour/Greens govt and sit on cross benches
    - the Maori Party – likely to retain their 3 seats
    - ACT – its demise has been incorrectly predicted preceding almost every election they have contested
    - UF – probably in the most shaky position right now, but not yet dead

    Your “it’s so very close” meme is bovine scatology. And the poll shows that the voters know it.

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  20. Weihana (4,475 comments) says:

    YesWeDid (913) Says:
    June 26th, 2013 at 4:31 pm

    So this terrible poll has Labour+Greens+NZ First on 47.5% and National on 48.8%, so if the poll over estimates Nationals support by any more than 1.5% then we have a change of government.

    Winston will need to ensure he makes 5%. For many of his voters the next election might be too far away for them to hang in there.

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  21. Bob (443 comments) says:

    First it is only one poll. We have to wait and see if it is matched by other polls. David Shearer just hasn’t got pulling power. Neither did Phil Goff. In 2002 National had the same problem as Labour with Bill English as leader. John Key has a charisma which Labour would love to match. I’ll bet there is no muttering about leadership by the National caucus.

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  22. s.russell (1,486 comments) says:

    Yes, it is very close. But there are grounds for hope:
    1) This is midterm. Normally (though not 2008-11) that is the nadir of Govt support
    2) The fact that the polls are close will put the acid on voters not to take risks: I think the high vote last time for NZF and the Conservatives was partly because people thought National was so far ahead that they could indulge themselves by voting for a jester or an idealogue (as a protest against liberal Nat policies). I suspect a lot of potential Nat voters also simply stayed home out of complacency.
    3) As I suggested above, two years ago National’s strategy was apparently to completely ignore the Opposition and run a positive campaign, but next time the signs are they will attack, and with the Opposition parties so weak such an attack may be very effective.
    4) Most voters care very little about politics – they won’t focus on such matters till late in 2014. Right now the polls are driven mostly by reaction to the Govt, and few are seriously looking al Labour et al. When they do, the reaction may be bad (remember how Labour sank in the polls as the 2011 election approacjhed?)

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  23. Reid (15,585 comments) says:

    The interesting thing is, this is precisely how almost every single one of we conservatives predicted it would turn out. It’s as if Shearer has decided to lull us all into a sense of false security and any minute now he’ll shout A’ha! and unveil his clever plan to lead Liarbore to electoral triumph in just a few short months from now.

    Either that or everything’s real and there is no clever plan, Shearer really will go down in history as one of the biggest losers in the whole world, and everyone will hate him because he made them all look so very mental.

    Of course the fact that had any of those galloping, roaring mentals merely turned themselves to any of us at the time of his election whence they commenced the great folly that has become today’s reality we could have told them, with 100% accuracy, just precisely what was going to happen.

    And the really puzzling thing is that none of them, not one, would show the slightest appreciation were any of us to point all this out to them, lest they commit yet another error in the near future, over their next leadership “adventure.”

    Lefties. Aren’t they just the cutest little fluffies. They’re like little drunken telly tubbies, all bumping into each other and falling over, not making much sense even when they’re not drinking… I wonder what Grant’s going to do? What fun.

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  24. Bogusnews (425 comments) says:

    I heard with the banter between Annette King and Steven Joyce today that Steven was saying he had heard Labour was hugely relieved there wasn’t a 2 in front of their poll. Apparently their internal polling had been looking really bad, much worse than the figure given by the latest one.

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  25. wikiriwhis business (3,296 comments) says:

    It’s so obvoius Shearer will go the same way as Goff after the next election.

    Unbeknownst is how Winston will dominate the next election

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  26. thaksinsproposal (40 comments) says:

    As mentioned by others, if things are too close, the conservative Nz First voters will have to come back to the NZ Nat party camp.
    I see little merit in our votes for NZ First.
    Davaluation lowers the value of superannuation, and Peters is set on devaluation.
    As well the categorical statement that NZ first will only back a governemnt which buys back Mighty River Power shares.

    It is up to people like me to make sure superannuants are aware what devaluation or printed money will mean to them.
    I think maybe 40% of NZ First voters are at base conservative.

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