June public polls

July 4th, 2013 at 4:00 pm by David Farrar



Have just published Curia’s monthly newsletter summarising the public in NZ, Australia, UK, US and Canada. Note Labour have dropped for three months in a row.

The executive summary is:

Curia’s Polling Newsletter – Issue 69, June 2013


June saw three political polls published in New Zealand – a Digipoll and two Roy Morgan polls.

The average of the public polls has National 15% ahead of Labour – 2% more than in May. The seat projection is centre-right 62 seats, centre-left 57.

The return of Kevin Rudd in Australia has seen Labor rebound in the polls, so far, but the Coalition retains a narrow 2% lead on average.

In the United States President Obama’s approval rating slips, and he gets a negative rating on foreign policy for the first time.

In the UK Labour leads the Conservatives by 8% and the UKIP continues to outpoll the Liberal Democrats.

In Canada the honeymoon has ended quickly for new Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, as they drop 5%. However on current polls they would still be the biggest party and lead a minority government.

The normal two tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment and head of government approval sentiment for the five countries. The mood has improved in Australia and Canada.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on Maori names, Labour and National leadership, the GCSB, Sky City, Fluoride, Fiordland plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.

6 Responses to “June public polls”

  1. tas (883 comments) says:

    It would be helpful to have a Labour+Green line on that graph.

    [DPF: In the full newsletter there is a graph which shows projected seats for each bloc]

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  2. Alan Johnstone (1,087 comments) says:

    So in summary another month with no changes outside of MOE in the polls, nothing really between the two blocs.

    All a bit boring. The election will be decided by ground operations in Auckland.

    Thinking about it some more I wonder if Labours great ground operation in south and west Auckland, that won them the election in 2005, has been degraded by the emergence of the Mana party ?

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  3. wreck1080 (5,019 comments) says:

    Key can push petrol prices to whatever he likes without backlash.

    The man is untouchable.

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  4. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (1,304 comments) says:

    Good to see Labour + Green + NZ First + Mana on track to capture power in 2014. Nothing has changed. So let us not get over excited bros.

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  5. duggledog (2,359 comments) says:

    Wait till the next poll when Labour’s man ban gobsmackery reaches Waitakere Man

    Where is the political satire show TVNZ? It would write itself

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  6. polemic (474 comments) says:

    David, Just a question – could Curia’s poll track the PM’s popularity and also against the nearest contender whoever it may be from Left or Right?
    Or is it only the TVNZ poll that has that listed.
    I always think it is relevant with the public mood and reflects the ups and downs of current issues.

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