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July 2, 2013 6:55pm by David Farrar

Latest poll

The latest Roy Morgan poll is at Curiablog.

Over the last two RM polls, National has gone up 5.5% and Labour down 3.5%.

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Comments (52)

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jaba

the greens are still high .. what is wrong with our people?
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July 2, 2013 7:06pm
martinh

the greens are still high .. what is wrong with our people?

The Shearer affect,
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July 2, 2013 7:09pm
Judith

The Polls are fake – There is no united future party. 🙂
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July 2, 2013 7:12pm
RF

It’s going to be interesting how Labour are going to spin this one. Rogue poll, combined with the Greens we could win, the only poll that counts is on Election Day etc…. Nah… They are fuck wits that are on a slippery slope and there is no hope for them. It’s hard to believe I was once a card carrying Labour member who held a reasonable position in their hirachary.
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July 2, 2013 7:17pm
Longknives

” It’s hard to believe I was once a card carrying Labour member who held a reasonable position in their hirachary.”

RF- This can’t be true! Surely you jest??
Deep undercover? Trying to being them down from within??
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July 2, 2013 7:19pm
Pete George

There’s no “Other” party either Judith. Maybe polling companies aren’t so bureaucratically pedantic.

UF back up to a tiny bit – but with rounding it could only be a couple of points difference.

And note that Winston First has dropped from his splurge of attention seeking.
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July 2, 2013 7:26pm
RF

Long knives. 7.19 PM. True dinks although i hang my head in shame just thinking about it. i blame the excitement of the power trips in Wellington. i am no longer UC. My MP was a good bugger and I still keep in touch. He is very pissed off with Shearer and just waiting for the others with more sway to make their move. They lack direction as the silent T is not popular, Grant is lazy and little is .. well Little. There is no obvious king maker about to make their run and thats their problem.
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July 2, 2013 7:29pm
KapitiCoast

C’mon people….really? polls ….Labour are now and forevermore (well, till 2014 election) joined at the hip and they will cannabilise votes like a sea saw, and National will remain ahead, what we will see next year…closer to election, is a shift to the left (greens) and a shift to the centre (Labour)…a wonderful siamese split via policy and not surgery!
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July 2, 2013 7:29pm
Judith

Pete George (18,123) Says:
July 2nd, 2013 at 7:26 pm
——————————

The smile was meant to indicate I was joking.
Thought I’d get in before someone else does.
Good for the party that there is still support –
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July 2, 2013 7:39pm
Pete George

I knew you were joking, but it was an opportunity to respond. Yes, good that a handful of people ticked the poll, but there’s a lot to do and a long way to go if it’s going to become anything sustainable.

Small parties have to plan for the month or two leading into an election and hope to win the media lottery.
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July 2, 2013 7:43pm
thaksinsproposal

I think we know that Green voting is a fairy wishful think, and that votes will go that way. It really does not matter to the centre right, as Green votes are just siphoned off from Labour .
I also suggest here that the centre right followers of NZ First may come back to NZ Nat, I certainly will, and I will carry as many as I can, .I will tell the old guys goodbye to your NZ dollar, forget about your gold card, and buy back at ypur peril.
We can not afford to be with a party which will not show true colours .
In my opinion David Cunliffe will gain no traction as Labour leader. He is an unlikeable person
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July 2, 2013 7:43pm
Redbaiter

You can’t expect any Labour leader to come up with the goods when John Key keeps stealing their thunder.

Next election might see a Labour/ National coalition as the government. Given National’s constant capitulation, it might as well be.
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July 2, 2013 7:45pm
thaksinsproposal

quite a good idea Redbaiter 7.45 above , fill the back bench with labour stuff, leave the house while they are talking,
I like it
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July 2, 2013 7:50pm
Steve Taylor

Is it just me, or is the Conservative Party vote holding its position quite well? That’s coming up 12 months without disappearing from the radar – have they embedded, perhaps?
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July 2, 2013 8:49pm
Andrew

Once Christians make up their mind, it can take a fair bit to change it.

I’m sure I’m going to regret this comment, but it’s generally true when it comes to the strongly identified more Pentecostal variety.
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July 2, 2013 9:02pm
Alan Johnstone

Headline VI numbers pretty much unchanged. Nat vs Lab/Green still running almost even.

The country direction figure is more interesting.

As I’ve said before the election outcome will almost solely be driven by the quality of the left wing GOTV operations.
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July 2, 2013 9:06pm
Steve Taylor

Hi Andrew, Ok………….but Colin Craig doesn’t attend a church, and the CEO of the Conservative Party is a Buddhist, so maybe the voting platform is a little broader than we assume?
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July 2, 2013 9:19pm
Andrew

Oh yeah… no disagreement here at all.

I’m pretty sure that strongly identified Christians would be over-represented among conservative supporters though.
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July 2, 2013 9:39pm
Sir Cullen's Sidekick

Before you all jump in joy – remember the following facts of life:

1. Labour + Green put together is still just 2 MPs fewer than National.

2. NZ First WILL cross 5% threshold on election night

3. Maori party at its current status is not capable of winning 3 seats – it may end up with just one

4. United Future won’t exist at election time. ACT brand is damaged too much. So no guarantees that these two votes will be available for John Key

5. The only possibility is Labour voters are spooked by Green’s influence and jump to National.

In summary there are no alliance partners for John Key…….
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July 2, 2013 9:57pm
Steve Taylor

Hi Sir Cullen:

1/ True.

2/ Very strong possibility.

3/ The role of Turoa Flavell as the possible Leader of the Maori Party may be being under-estimated in your assessment on this one.

4/ I think Dunne will be able to sort the membership registrations out for re-registration of the Party in time for the next Election: I just can’t pick as to whether Ohariu will still back him -if they don’t he and his Party are indeed finished. The ACT brand has been damaged for the last two Elections – Epsom still gifted the Party their vote, and in the absence (as you suggest) of National not having any allies – they may well do so again.

5/ I don’t see National getting an outright majority to govern.

which leaves me asking this question:

6/ What role will the Conservative Party, already tracking the thick end of 60,000 votes or so, going to play in 18 months time?
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July 2, 2013 10:34pm
Steve Taylor

Andrew: Yes, this is certainly a possibility.
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July 2, 2013 10:35pm
bhudson

What role will the Conservative Party, already tracking the thick end of 60,000 votes or so, going to play in 18 months time?

An (effective) redistribution of their votes, when they don’t reach the 5% threshold, to the successful parties, which will assist National more than the others.

Edit: which tells the prospective Conservative voters that they are better off giving their votes to National in the first place, so that the right of centre gains 100% value from those votes
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July 2, 2013 10:39pm
Steve Taylor

Hi Bhudson: Yes, the re-distribution would certainly take effect if the Conservative Party did not cross the 5% threshold – however, what if National continue to send this sort of signal to the Electorate near the 2014 Election time? http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/6871176/Nats-warm-to-Conservative-Party

Key has done this on three occasions to date that I can remember, the most recent being last month.
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July 2, 2013 10:46pm
bhudson

Alas, according to some, he has also done the same for Winston First. And those two parties are a real vote swap waiting to happen. So there is the prospect of one of them getting over 5% – and Winston is the more seasoned politician.

Or the prospect of neither of them getting there. With as much as 7-9% of the vote effectively redistributed.

As I said, if people prefer a right of centre govt they are far better off voting National and giving the right of centre 100% of their vote, instead of only around 50%
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July 2, 2013 10:57pm
Redbaiter

“if people prefer a right of centre govt they are far better off voting National”

Completely fucking delusional.
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July 2, 2013 11:07pm
hj

The Greens are high because *some* academic input; they can spew out screes of essays and (a lot of that) has a sound basis. Their problem is that many of their members believe in a large store of loot that just needs redistrubition.
NZ First has no quality *case* on it’s website. Do people really believe (house prices)《i》it is all about land supply《/i》?. You are left wondering what NZ First is really about…. seems like just reactionary opinion.
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July 3, 2013 6:00am
thaksinsproposal

bhudson (3,858) Says: July 2nd, 2013 at 10:57 pm
”
Alas, according to some, he has also done the same for Winston First. And those two parties are a real vote swap waiting to happen. So there is the prospect of one of them getting over 5% – and Winston is the more seasoned politician.
Or the prospect of neither of them getting there. With as much as 7-9% of the vote effectively redistributed.
As I said, if people prefer a right of centre govt they are far better off voting National and giving the right of centre 100% of their vote, instead of only around 50%
”
bhudson, I agree. I am a paid up member of NZ First but I will not risk it.
I do not understand your redistribution argument. Surely the votes for NZ First or conservative are lost entirely if under 5%.
That is the thing, We can’t afford to risk our votes . Lat time it was cool, I knew NZ Nat would win, so I voted NZ First.
This time the horses scare me they want to print fodder and eat.
This will be my first vote for NZ Nat
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July 3, 2013 6:06am
thaksinsproposal

hj (4,182) Says:
July 3rd, 2013 at 6:00 am
” The Greens are high because *some* academic input; they can spew out screes of essays and (a lot of that) has a sound basis. Their problem is that many of their members believe in a large store of loot that just needs redistrubition.”

That is right i think hj , I used to be Green , pity me I worked for them , and they are a religion, a greedy religion which believes your money is better theirs. You can not change that mindset. I have always doubted NZ First woud go there, but I will not risk it, I will vote NZ Nat unless they have a 10% advantage , then i will be frivlous and invite Winston back
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July 3, 2013 6:15am
thaksinsproposal

hj (4,182) Says:
July 3rd, 2013 at 6:00 am
” The Greens are high because *some* academic input; they can spew out screes of essays and (a lot of that) has a sound basis. Their problem is that many of their members believe in a large store of loot that just needs redistrubition.”

That is right i think hj , I used to be Green , pity me I worked for them , and they are a religion, a greedy religion which believes your money is better theirs. You can not change that mindset. I have always doubted NZ First woud go there, but I will not risk it, I will vote NZ Nat unless they have a 10% advantage , then I will be frivolous and invite Winston back
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July 3, 2013 6:15am
Steve Taylor

thaksinsproposal: Any Party votes cast for a Party that scores under the 5% MMP threshold has their votes proportionally re-distributed to the Party’s that did cross the threshold on Election night. No votes are actually “wasted” -they may simply end up where the Voter might not have wanted them to end up.

If we accept the premise that National will not get a majority on Election Night 2014, and if we believe Key when he has repeatedly stated that he won’t work in a Govt with Winston Peters (although he may court him for policy support during the term of this Government), and we observe his none-too-subtle invitations to the Conservative Party over time, then it seems to me that if Key does give a definitive signal to the Electorate regarding a preferred minor support party to work with, then the Conservative Party will quite easily make the 5% threshold.

I agree that the decision is made more difficult if the Conservative Party was polling say 3% 3 days out from the Election – but if they are polling around 4% at around the same time?

I also agree that there is the possibility of a vote swap between NZ First & the Conservative Party – however I also believe that this vote swap could come from any centre-right (and possibly, some centre-left) Parties.

On both current and (recent) historical polling, the Conservative Party only need to secure another 60,000 votes or so to make the 5% threshold – where the extra votes come from is perhaps less relevant for them.
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July 3, 2013 6:34am
hj

On the left they call NZ “rich” but then I hear someone (who isn’f besotted by some sort of ideology) observe that “most NZ’rs dont have two shillings to rub together”. How rich are we (eg) we have roads but they will all wear out?
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July 3, 2013 6:39am
Manolo

It might be all over. The nightmare could happen: a dreadful coalition of socialist Labour, Luddite Greens, Stone Age Mana, and clueless NZF could win political power in November 2014 and put NZ on a quick path to economic disaster.
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July 3, 2013 6:51am
big bruv

“Once Christians make up their mind, it can take a fair bit to change it.”

Quite true!

Even when faced with the truth Christians are stupid enough to keep insisting there is a God.
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July 3, 2013 7:10am
Andrew

Big bruv – have you proved that God does not exist? 🙂

What truth do you speak of?
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July 3, 2013 7:24am
Pete George

There is no redistribution of votes for parties that fail to make the 5% threshold. They are discarded – that is, worth nothing. If you voted for the Conservative Party last election it was effectively a wasted vote.

The votes for parties getting 5% or more are then scaled up proportional to their share of the vote, making those votes worth more.

As I understand it if National got 48% of total votes and 5% of total votes are for parties failing to make the threshold then National in effect gain 48% of that 5%, increasing them to 50,4%.
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July 3, 2013 7:28am
bhudson

@PG,

That is correct. That is why I said effectively redistributed, because that is the effect of not reaching the threshold, not because the votes actually get dished out to the other parties.
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July 3, 2013 7:41am
Steve Taylor

Hi Pete: Not quite. The votes for parties that don’t reach the 5% threshold are not counted in the final tally, and then the Parties who do make the threshold have their proportional percentages increased accordingly, so the net effect is re-distribution: http://www.elections.org.nz/voting-system/mmp-voting-system/sainte-lagu%C3%AB-allocation-formula

I assume that your Party (and yes, I do believe that UF will make the re-registration process in time), will be focussing on retaining Ohariu, as opposed to securing the Party vote?
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July 3, 2013 7:48am
Judith

Pete George (18,126) Says:
July 2nd, 2013 at 7:43 pm
—————————–

My advice Pete, not that I know much about politics at all, but just from the word of those I talk to,

if United Future wants to survive, and there is room for a party in their position, then they need to de-emphasise Dunne, and start promoting some other personalities. If they do that well, then many of us who are floating – finding National to much meat and the Greens a tad too much vegetable, then UF could be an option, but not like it is at the moment.

That is where Winston gets some of his support – but more from the lack of a viable alternative.
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July 3, 2013 7:52am
Pete George

Steve – I expect the re-registration will be completed in plenty of time. But it’s being held up by a modern problem – there was a quick response to join the party online, but getting people to print, sign and post is harder. It was probably the only letter I’ve posted this year.

I don’t know what next year’s strategy will be, but I think it has to be both Ohariu and the party vote. In 2011 a lot of resource went into Ohariu for obvious reasons while the party suffered. Dunne did what he had to do, but not enough people pushed the party elsewhere.

But the crux of it was the media – they chose to portray Ohariu as at risk (despite polls showing otherwise) and wrote off the party.

Small parties need to somehow get MSM coverage. Peters is a master at this, it’s what he does best.
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July 3, 2013 7:57am
Pete George

Judith – I agree entirely, and am exploring how to do that – as are others, we are meeting in Dunedin this weekend to do exactly that.

And Dunne agrees. He has carried the party for the last two terms. The party will only survive if the party steps up.

But promoting other personalities is challenging. You have to have other personalities. And you have to somehow get the MSM interested, and they usually are not, unless you can be controversial or embarrassing. Negative coverage is hard to get, positive coverage is just about impossible.
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July 3, 2013 8:01am
burt

Why are Labour still so high – haven’t people noticed that every single time we have a Labour govt our economy goes gang busters for about 3-5 years then ends in a crashing recession … Socialism fails … history proves this yet muppets still can’t give up their desire to have access to other peoples money…
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July 3, 2013 8:27am
Judith

Pete George (18,131) Says:
July 3rd, 2013 at 8:01 am

———————————–

Well my opinion for what its worth, is that I think many people are sick of the sneering and the nasty taunts etc that has become dominant in the house. Whilst there has always been a certain amount, it is got out of hand, as has the dishonesty, or shall we say the ‘evasion’ of truth by both main parties.

I believe any party would do well if they campaigned on cutting that crap – promoting clean, open and transparent politics, and NO cronyism (kiwis hate it). Whilst I accept that is hard to get the attention of the media to promote yourselves – from my circle of friends and acquaintances, that is what we are looking for. We certainly don’t have anything like it at present.

Oh yeah, and you have to field a full team! Be out there and strong.
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July 3, 2013 9:11am
greybeard

This is the best thread I’ve read here for some time.
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July 3, 2013 11:10am
Phil

DPF, what’s the general state of the Maori electorate polling?

If the MP get overtaken by Labour in one of their three seats, then by my calculations the parliamentary overhang disappears completely, and you could have a national-led government with 59 seats, supported by ACT + UF with one each (total = 61) in a 120 seat parliament.

Of course, if you add in all the different permutations of overhang-status for Dunne, Banks, and Harawira, you could also have a 123 seat parliament with National on 60 MP’s, leading to a majority of 62.
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July 3, 2013 11:15am
Warren Murray

The Greens will be very pleased to exceed 12%. Unfortunately for Labour, the Greens vote is approaching 50% of Labour’s. if they are able to form a government, the Greens could reasonably expect a fairly high proportion of the seats in Cabinet.
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July 3, 2013 11:32am
ciaron

bhudson (3,860) Says:

July 2nd, 2013 at 10:39 pm
What role will the Conservative Party, already tracking the thick end of 60,000 votes or so, going to play in 18 months time?

An (effective) redistribution of their votes, when they don’t reach the 5% threshold, to the successful parties, which will assist National more than the others.

Edit: which tells the prospective Conservative voters that they are better off giving their votes to National in the first place, so that the right of centre gains 100% value from those votes

Why should I give my vote to National again? At the moment I seem to be getting a lot of Labour policy for my trouble.
No. My conscience is clear: get stuffed National.
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July 3, 2013 12:09pm
bhudson

@ciaron,

Will your conscience remain clear when you realise that you have either given 100% or (approx) 44% of your vote to the Left, thus improving the chances of a Lab/Green/Mana/NZF coalition of the desperate dictators?
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July 3, 2013 12:28pm
s.russell

For the small parties polling under 5% there is a key psychological tipping point: if people decide they are not going to make it, then they will be tempted to vote tactically for a larger party to avoid wasting their vote. On the other side of the tipping point, supporters of larger, potentially allied parties, may switch to the smaller party to make sure they get in and that that party’s votes are not wasted.

If the election rolls around and the Conservative Party is still polling 2% then many supporters (though obviously not Redbaiter) will decide to cut their losses and vote National to keep Labour/Greens out. If they are polling 4%, then sympathisers will be encouraged that a Conservative vote won’t be wasted, and some Nat supporters may chip in their vote to make sure that the 4% does not go down the toilet.

The Conservatives and Winston First both did well last time (note thaksinsproposal’s post above) partly because everyone was so convinced National would romp home that they felt able to indulge themselves with fun votes or protest votes or making-a-point votes. So much so that it almost backfired and caused National to lose.

NZF will be in an interesting position. On the one hand, it may be squeezed on the right as people like thaksinsproposal decide they cannot afford to vote NZF in case that lets the Labour/Greens in. But some Labour/Greens voters might vote tactically for NZF for the opposite reason – to make sure Winston DOES get in, knowing that he is the key to winning power: Lab+Green is unlikely to beat National, so their only hope is Lab+Green+NZF.

Of course, if Winston got in, then decided NOT to back them, they’d be feeling pretty stupid. Serve them right of course, as that’s what he did in 1996. Fool me one etc… So the tea-leaf reading reporters who talk up an NZF-National deal might be doing NZF a big disservice by discouraging tactical support fro NZF from the left.
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July 3, 2013 12:40pm
ciaron

@bhudson;

Yes, because I would have voted for the party in whom I believe to have the best policy (or at least a majority that I agree with), as is my democratic right.

I think to vote for a party “A” to simply keep out party “B” when party “A” often enacts the policy of party “B” to be quite pointless. In fact, it might just bring an end to this appeasement crap if party “A” were to be replaced.

Some may think this tactic of “stealing their thunder/ taking the wind from their sails” is wise, I see it as spineless or worse: offering our figurative arse to all and sundry.
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July 3, 2013 1:35pm
bhudson

@ciaron,

There can be no doubt that anyone who gives their vote to the party they favour most is making the optimal, rational decision for them.

Voting for another party simply to teach one “a lesson” – ending up with a govt you don’t actually want – that is sub-optimal
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July 3, 2013 1:55pm
ciaron

@bhudson,

Well, what you say may be true in some cases. However, I am not casting a protest vote. I will be voting for the party in whom I have the most confidence, because National no longer represents me.

I find your second statement interesting. As anecdotally, I know Labour supporters who voted National because they wanted to end HC.
Now; they feel they switched their vote to teach Labour a lesson (specifically an end to the nanny state), and have ended up with a Natioanal government that continues more or less on the same course (bet they didn’t see that coming:)).
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July 3, 2013 2:25pm
hj

I see the National Front is doing well in France..taking votes off the socialistts. Le Pen has had a clean out sjhe calls the holocaust “the height of barbarism”(?). Bernard Hickey calls the prospect of a National Front “chilling” (?) but cnsider this: maybe it is payback time; while people to struggle to buy a hpouse and the Kiwi lifestyle is gutted, our main news channel has the man Mr Fullbright, Mr Royal Society – the doyen of multiculturalism (Professor Spoonley) who enthusiastically explains that as the population increases Auckland becomes a better place to live.
Sorry about punctuation.
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July 3, 2013 7:59pm

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