Small on Shearer

July 29th, 2013 at 2:25 pm by David Farrar

writes at Stuff:

The only thing saving him is the refusal of the Shearer-sceptics to coalesce around a single alternative.

The blokish, more conservative MPs can’t yet bring themselves to back deputy leader Grant Robertson.

The anti-Cunliffe group may have been expanded by his disloyalty at the time of last year’s annual conference although, to be fair, he has been keeping his head down and playing the team game in recent months.

Former union boss and party president Andrew Little has not set the world alight, nor gathered a salon of close supporters and he is seen as unready.

So the status quo remains.

But at times it feels as if the rival factions are in some macabre version of the movie Weekend at Bernie’s lugging around a political corpse because they are afraid to let go of one arm in case he falls over and the other side grabs power.

What a great analogy!

Unless Mr Shearer stepped aside and an heir was anointed – something the wider party would likely balk at – a spill that late in the year would trigger a primary runoff that would cascade into election year, further weakening Labour’s prospects.

Yes, Mr Shearer needs to lift his game, but he is not stupid. He surely gets the sense of urgency. Whether he can change is the open question.

The sceptics also have to play their part. They must either back him or back off. At the moment they are going around in circles. “It isn’t working, we need to move, he is not up to it, but I am not voting for . . .” And so nothing continues to happen and Mr Shearer’s confidence is sapped further.

Of course, events across the Tasman show that these things can never be finally put to bed until success silences the critics.

But if Labour wants to get back in the game, the leadership circus must be brought to a climax, the sooner the better.

The next TV polls will be in September probably. That may be the crucial month.

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16 Responses to “Small on Shearer”

  1. tvb (4,501 comments) says:

    The weekend at Bernies analogy is perfect having recently watched the movie. I assume from that Small considers Shearer is terminal. So they drag the corpse around until an agreed replacement is agreed on. The only real option is Cunliffe but it is taking a while for people to come around

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  2. flipper (4,198 comments) says:

    DPF…,
    Has there been a TV One Colmar poll this month?

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  3. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,916 comments) says:

    If the Labour caucus had half a brain between the lot of them they would realise (a) NZ will not vote for a poofter PM and (b) Cunliffe is their very own Rudd. It’s really that simple. He will maximise Labour’s vote.

    Bite your tongues chaps and elect Cunliffe your leader. He is the only one among you who is capable of taking it to National.

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  4. sparky (235 comments) says:

    We wouldn’t vote for Labour, no matter who the Leader was, there all as bad as each other. There policies laced with the Greens are just crazy. They continuously attack John Key, who along with his ministers is doing a very good job of running the country. Why the hell would we want to vote for a pack of nutters.

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  5. Manolo (14,041 comments) says:

    I expect Captain Mumblefuck to arrive soon at the same conclusion and resign the leadership.
    He’ll soon disappear to enjoy the fruits of his fat (secret) bank account in New York.

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  6. Cunningham (846 comments) says:

    Shearer is dog tucker! Labour have made a grave mistake sucking up to the Greens. Wait until the blow torch is put on the Green/Labour monster in the election campaign. They will fall like a deck of cards.

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  7. virtualmark (1,536 comments) says:

    The other option is for David Shearer to grow some balls, recognise that the only time he’s ever going to have the party united behind him is just before they stick a knife in his back, and just … step down as leader.

    Frankly if I were David Shearer I’d throw the problem back on the miscreants who are white-anting me every day and say “F&$k the lot of you, here, let me trigger your own worst nightmares …”.

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  8. kiwi in america (2,508 comments) says:

    The Fran Mould revamp is evident in the attempt to grab populist headlines with the so-called chanban. This is aimed squarely at the next Roy Morgan poll which right now is the most frequent. RM has consistently over-reported Labour’s support and has been more volatile than the other major media polls. Shearer’s strategists are hoping the chanban will drive unmotivated Labour supporters and xenophobic low information NZ 1st type voters to lean Labour when the pollsters ring. A slight uptick for Labour in the RM poll buys Shearer more time to consolidate and tighten his message discipline. If the mild poll recovery carries on into the other major media polls, Shearer will buy time until the Party conference as the new party leader replacement rules and the warring factions make removing Shearer more difficult. He will bank on another outflanking showdown at the Conference like he did 2012 to stay in power. This scenario has a more than 50% chance of being the case and is actually the best scenario for National. It keeps Labour’s wounded and flawed leader in place for 2014 barring another discernible fall in polling support. Cunliffe likely would emerge as the bloodied winner of a full 40/40/20 party leadership contest if held right now and likely would quite quickly draw the party machine and most of the caucus around him. Labour’s policies will be just as flawed under Cunliffe as they are under Shearer but they will have a more articulate spokesman in Cunliffe and the pro-left media, starved of the spectacle of any more of Labour’s intra-party bloodletting, will move back to cheering Labour on, publishing their press releases without question and failing to press its leader on their many and varied policy inconsistencies and errors. Whilst Key can still defeat Cunliffe, he will be tougher to beat than Shearer.

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  9. Pete George (23,681 comments) says:

    Here’s another attempt to pick up some quick support:

    Labour will repeal charter schools legislation
    David Shearer | Monday, July 29, 2013 – 15:55

    Labour will repeal the legislation allowing the creation of charter schools immediately upon becoming government, Labour Leader David Shearer said today.

    The National government is expected to announce candidates for the first charter schools this week.

    “Charter schools won’t be good for education. They won’t have to have registered teachers, won’t have to teach to the curriculum and won’t be subject to the same accountability as state schools.

    “They are an ideological experiment inflicted on the country as the result of a dodgy cup of tea deal between John Banks and John Key.

    “Labour has been working with groups in the education sector to draft a Bill repealing recent Education Act changes that allow charter schools to be established.

    “We’re not going to wait until we’re in government to get to work on this, we’ll be ready to go on day one.

    “I’ll be releasing a draft Bill soon, but in the meantime I want to send a clear signal to anyone considering establishing a charter school that there is no future for them when Labour returns to government.

    “Any government that I lead will make decisions in education based on what’s best for kids and learning. The charter schools experiment fails at the first hurdle.”

    It hasn’t failed yet. @DavidShearerMP didn’t respond when I asked if the would shut any charter schools immediately, even if they had proven to be successful.

    This is appalling quick and nasty policy on the fly without thinking anything through.

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  10. RRM (10,008 comments) says:

    have you seen what The Civilian just wrote about Shearer?

    It’s properly funny:

    Labour leader David Shearer is being spoken to by police this evening after telling a Pakistani taxi driver that he didn’t belong in this country and that he could not legally buy a home.

    A drunken Shearer reportedly told Humayun that he was “the Prime Minister” and that he had just passed a new law preventing “people like you” from owning residential property.

    Humayun, apparently familiar with what Shearer was talking about, politely informed him that the newly-announced Labour Party policy did not affect permanent residents of New Zealand, and under that policy, he would therefore be entitled to own a house.

    http://www.thecivilian.co.nz/david-shearer-tells-pakistani-taxi-driver-that-he-cant-buy-home/

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  11. Colville (2,298 comments) says:

    RRM…

    “Yeah, I mean, okay, it was a late night, I was obviously drunk,” he said. “You can actually tell I was drunk because I said I was the Prime Minister, which is of course absurd. I’ll never be the Prime Minister.”

    Gold. :-)

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  12. wat dabney (3,805 comments) says:

    Labour has been working with groups in the education sector to draft a Bill repealing recent Education Act changes that allow charter schools to be established.

    Those ‘groups’ being the Labour Party’s owners and backers, the Teachers’ Unions, acting to maintain their lucrative rent-seeking monopoly.

    This is corruption.

    Naked, shameless corruption.

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  13. duggledog (1,585 comments) says:

    “Charter schools won’t be good for education. They won’t have to have registered teachers, won’t have to teach to the curriculum and won’t be subject to the same accountability as state schools”

    Oh god jesus christ what a terminal moron.

    So bloody what you tool! I’m not a registered teacher but I taught my kids to read, write and do basic maths before they started primary school. What, is the curriculum, sorry Curriculum, something made by God? No it’s not. Charter schools will most probably be an amazing success. If it’s not, we dump it.

    TVB love the weekend @ Bernie’s analogy, perfect

    Any Labour Part members reading this, read Adolf and Sparky’s posts at the start of this thread. That is middle NZ right there. The entire left is hamstrung by a useless Shearer and a mental Norman. Long may it continue though!

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  14. Pete George (23,681 comments) says:

    And this politically independent teacher’s group has a say:

    Both parents and teachers will welcome Labour’s announcement that it will speedily repeal charter school legislation if a Labour-led government is elected in 2014, NZEI Te Riu Roa President Judith Nowotarski says.

    She says putting focus and taxpayer resources on improving quality public schooling for all children was the right direction for any government, not introducing a failed experiment from overseas.

    “The charter schools legislation introduced by the National-ACT government poses risks to children’s learning and the quality of the public education system because the schools will not have to hire or be led by qualified and registered teachers or principals. They could be run by private companies, creating the risk of putting profit ahead of meeting children’s needs,” she says.

    http://www.voxy.co.nz/politics/labours-rejection-charter-schools-welcomed/5/162691

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  15. RF (1,447 comments) says:

    Shit I love it. weekend at Bernies. Shearer is Bernie the dead guy they drag around. Perfect match.

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  16. Warren Murray (313 comments) says:

    Its a mistake to compare NZ Labour with Australian Labor. In Australia they are in power and faced annihilation under Gillard. In NZ they are not in power and, at worst, face three more years in opposition. If most of the NZ Labour caucus believed Shearer’s leadership would end their parliamentary career, he would be gone.

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