Will Shearer survive?

July 13th, 2013 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

writes:

At the start of the week, I would have put his chances of surviving at 80/20. Now they would be closer to 50/50.

I still have money on him seeing out 2013, as I don’t think they want to risk Cunliffe as Leader. However if those wanting a change do a Rudd type destabilisation, it may force the caucus to act.

The coverage of the whole “man-ban” issue has exposed the party’s fundamental flaws: its factions, the tensions between the caucus and the party, and the perception that the party is overly concerned with issues of identity.

Amid the leadership issues, there has been a serious debate internally in Labour this week about the wisdom of Maryan Street promoting her euthanasia private members’ bill.

Labour is terrified it will be drawn out of the ballot.

I hope it does. This law reform is badly needed and overdue.

Would the party go with the candidate that could get them closest to Government but risk further disunity in the party, Cunliffe?

Or would it risk going with the lower profile deputy, someone less likely to get them into the Government, someone with less public appeal (nothing to do with him being gay) but more likely to unify the party?

This is the Robertson dilemma. He might be ready but is the public?

Don’t rule out Little!

But replacing Shearer with either Cunliffe or Robertson would be as risky as the move was to put in Shearer.

In the event of failure, the party could be forced to contemplate a second leadership contest closer to the 2014 election with a wild card such as Shane Jones, Little or even back to Goff as leader were Robertson or Cunliffe unable to steer the party away from a disastrous result akin to Bill English’s in 2002 of just over 20 per cent. None of these scenarios is out of the question.

I think going back to Phil Goff is an excellent idea. Please do that.

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27 Responses to “Will Shearer survive?”

  1. Pete George (22,851 comments) says:

    …there has been a serious debate internally in Labour this week about the wisdom of Maryan Street promoting her euthanasia private members’ bill.

    Labour is terrified it will be drawn out of the ballot.

    It’s disgraceful that they consider the misguided desperation of their party as more important than getting good legislation into Parliament.

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  2. Mags (38 comments) says:

    The old guard in Annette King is doing herself no favours with comments like this in Claire Trevett’s column (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10896483) “I have a source, too, and my source has told me that a minister has a close association with a goat”. Hmmm, flashbacks to that night with Darren Hughes and the naked teenager perhaps?

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  3. kowtow (7,634 comments) says:

    Stange how the so called man ban is being made such a thing of when there was so little comment from the media on the even more outrageously identity politics non sense “marriage equality”.

    That exposed factions in the National Party ,but there was no analysis or comment…..no we were subjected to the clownish behaviour of Gay Icon Williamson and enjoined to celebrate the new found diversity and inclusiveness we New Zealanders are supposed to be famous for (when it suits of course).

    Very little, if any, comment and analysis of Keys’ apparent flip flop from opposing civil unions to supporting full homosexual marriage.

    All this because the media were fully behind that legislation. Now of course they are acting like baying hounds who sense blood and want Shearers scalp,another trophy.Like Don Brash’s who they also didn’t approve of and did their best to destabalise and destroy.

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  4. Pete George (22,851 comments) says:

    kowtow – the ‘man ban’ was for in the future and was discriminatory.

    The marriage bill is done, it’s part of history, and it reduced discrimination. Get over it.

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  5. kowtow (7,634 comments) says:

    Dunnes’ history too,get over it.

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  6. Chuck Bird (4,682 comments) says:

    @mags

    Are you able to expand? I am sore there are MPs with alleged odd sexual behaviour. I would not be surprised of anything with a Labour MP – but a national Minister?

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  7. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    Labour are kidding themselves if they think a change of leadership will do them any good.

    Silent T disliked by more of his own party than the public – his persona is that of a smarmy bit of goods that no one would trust.

    Robertson- just comes across as a smart arse. All National have to do is keep replaying the tape of him looking indignant and wanking on while about the casino, conveniently forgetting any comping he had from Sky City.-

    Little- Forever a union man with the personality of an amoeba. Dull as dishwater doesn’t do it.

    They have nothing, nil and fuck all to follow that up with. There is no policy and they are factionalized to the nth degree. They need to do an Augean Stables type clean up job (even Hercules would have balked at the shit that labour have built up) – mallard especially needs the arse.

    The Damien O’Connors are as close to the proper labour politician as labour has got. If they continue with the gay urban feminist socailist they are forever doomed so for me that makes it just perfect.

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  8. Chris R (65 comments) says:

    Pauleastbay has it down exquisitely. Labour=stuffed maybe forever!!!!

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  9. David Garrett (6,447 comments) says:

    PEB: Amen to that Sir…but I fear the ever left leaning electorate may elect the bastards anyway…

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  10. slightlyrighty (2,496 comments) says:

    A leadership challenge within Labour has all the hallmarks of a televised talent quest with no talent to show. If you were to look at the CV’s of any likely candidate, you are left wondering what they have actually achieved in the real world prior to entering politics.

    The best qualified would seen to be Shane Jones and David Cunliffe, both Harvard educated in Government with some real world experience, but both with the majority of experience in government. Of course as far as Labour is concerned, the popularity contest approach will result in the talent being voted off in favour of the politically acceptable, and I think we all know how that will end.

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  11. nasska (10,680 comments) says:

    Chris R

    Labour will have a hard core of voters, probably about 20% of the electorate. To these madmen & women it would not matter if the entire caucus dressed in tutus & snorted cocaine while sodomising goats on the steps of parliament. Their grandparents voted Labour as did their parents & as far as they are concerned so will their grandkids.

    It’s tribal.

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  12. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    will result in the talent being voted off in favour of the politically acceptable, and I think we all know how that will end.

    tears I’m hoping.

    if the entire caucus dressed in tutus & snorted cocaine while sodomising goats

    I thought they kept that secret

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  13. labrator (1,750 comments) says:

    Labour will have a hard core of voters, probably about 20% of the electorate.

    I thought it was slightly higher but I can confirm I know plenty of them. There is virtually nothing that could be done that would prevent them being voted for. I’m not sure how big it is for National, I’ve never met any rabid National supporters who would always vote blue no matter what.

    Cunliffe should push Little for leader and kill two birds with one stone. Silent T could be PM in 2017.

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  14. mavxp (494 comments) says:

    Perhaps the best thing for Labour right now is not a Left-wing broad church approach, but a big schism between the factions. MMP can handle and indeed favours minor parties, and perhaps outright competition in the ‘free market of ideas’ will see one of the factions emerge as the left-leaning publics pick of choice. Of course that could be the Greens…

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  15. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    It’s tribal.

    Yep, like my parents. They are in love with the idea of Labour, not the reality. The Labour they support has not existed for many years, if it ever existed at all. In a similar fashion they have no idea what modern National represents. They are considerably left of what the Labour party has been at times. But none of that matters. They are Tories :)

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  16. Mags (38 comments) says:

    @Chuck Bird

    The quote was in relation to the leaks and sources coming out of Labour, and how anyone could say anything and it could be construed as a leak from an unattributed source. I think she was trying to be tongue in cheek, but may have had a Freudian slip.

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  17. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    National has swamped the middle ground, the only option for Labour is to go hard left to have any point of difference and me working 50-60 hours a week and labour haveing policy of taking all my earnings and giving them a way will not go down too well because at the end of the day the majority of us still work (just?).

    Things are ticking over pretty good if comments made by business’s I do work for are anything to go by, more staff are being taken on, skills shortages for a number of them.

    NZers ( and our Parliament) waste too much time worrying about the small staff i.e. whether the homo’s can marry – who really cares good luck to them. Gay ,straight all pay tax , the more we earn the more tax we pay unfortunately but there is more money in circulation and thats a good thing because it creates employment opportunities. More working less socail problems.

    Labour try too hard to appease that hardcore 20% or so nasska mentions, (that lot will always vote for them )they forget that the other 80% pay for that 20% and we get sick of being treated like a private bank.

    labour are just not bright enough to figure out how to appeal to the 80%- they are way too busy playing their undergraduate games of intrigue at our expense.

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  18. Ross Miller (1,663 comments) says:

    I need to ‘out’ myself as the newly self elected President, Secretary and Treasurer of the Citizens for Shearer fan club. My dog (as in ‘he hasn’t got a dogs show’ but, what the hell, he’s a nice guy that would take me for walkies if I asked) has already joined.

    We all agree that Shearer is the best choice to lead Labour in the interests of New Zealand continuing to proper.

    Failing that and Pauleastbay has probably got it right in promoting Damien O’Connor.

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  19. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/kevin-rudds-eldest-son-nicholas-becomes-on-of-his-key-advisers-for-the-federal-poll/story-fni0cx12-1226678701009#mm-breached

    Rudd is unbelievable, .

    Labour appears rooted all over.

    We’ve gt Shearer

    Australia have Rudd

    Milliband looks like he could loose all the union funding if he pisses off some union piece of crap.

    Happy days

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  20. Harriet (4,522 comments) says:

    “…….Amid the leadership issues, there has been a serious debate internally in Labour this week about the wisdom of Maryan Street promoting her euthanasia private members’ bill…….Labour is terrified it will be drawn out of the ballot….”
    “……I hope it does. This law reform is badly needed and overdue…..”

    It’s not ‘law reform’ David.

    It’s ‘guide lines’ for doctors! That’s the truth.

    And these ‘guidelines’ will do nothing less than stopping further research into palliative care for 10′s of thousands of other citizens who are suffering from DOZENS of other illnesses and inflictions!

    “Oh there’s not much more we can do for them’ will become Health Management reasoning – to stay within budgets!

    Why on earth spouces and children should not be allowed to spend further time with their loved ones, and who are still coherant, for another 2 months or so because of selfishness is beyond any sense of reason.

    And that’s being outragously selfish when those who will miss them are still just children and/or teenagers!

    Imagine going through life thinking that mum didn’t want to spend anymore time with US!

    And unlike an individual woman taking the ‘morning after’ abortion pill, no person in NZ will be ‘given anything’ to administer to them selves or others. Only doctors will be allowed to put people to death. This law is not about the RIGHT TO DIE but doctors rights to kill!

    Anyone can decide to die, but only doctors will be allowed to carry through with the request – by following guidelines.

    Doctors will gradually move further away from the current ‘poster illnesses’ for ‘old people’ that have had ‘full lives – up till now’ that are being used to get the current legislation passed. These soon to be euthanasia cases, will be then used to get futher legislation passed by using terms like ‘immobility’ and ‘permantly restricted lifestyle’ as the TRUE reason that old people are euthanasied.

    And that ‘immobility’ and ‘permantly restricted lifestyle’ criteria will be used by LIBERAL doctors for argueing for infanticide[after birth abortion] tetraplegia ect. Then anyone can die at the hands of liberal doctors.

    People are already being ‘allowed to die’ in hospitals in their VERY FINAL days of life, through being administered a lack of medication or over medicated. That is reasonable.

    What is not reasonable is people who are told UNEXPECTEDLY that they only have 3 months to live and are then eligable for euthanasia ‘to do away with the MENTAL pain’ of dying. We are ALL dying – and moreso after what people believe is a youthful age of just 50!

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  21. mandk (821 comments) says:

    DPF: “I hope it does. This law reform is badly needed and overdue.”

    Oh dear, more pro-death activism. Where does it stop? Killing a baby after birth because the mother doesn’t want it? Executing kids and adults with Down’s syndrome because they’re inconvenient? Overdosing someone in a coma because the family wants to get away for a holiday? Pressuring old people into taking a death pill because they are hard to look after?

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  22. mandk (821 comments) says:

    Harriet,
    Let’s call it what it is: geronticide.

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  23. Manolo (13,375 comments) says:

    I hope Captain Mumblefuck does survive!

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  24. s.russell (1,563 comments) says:

    Amid the leadership issues, there has been a serious debate internally in Labour this week about the wisdom of Maryan Street promoting her euthanasia private members’ bill.

    Um, how exactly is this different from discussing Shearer?

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  25. hj (6,359 comments) says:

    The women have challenged Housing New Zealand’s 90 day eviction notices, claiming they were being unlawfully punished for the actions of their Mongrel Mob partners.

    It has now emerged that Labour MP for Hauraki-Waikato, Nanaia Mahuta, and Labour list MP Charles Chauvel have supported the women.

    Mahuta would not be drawn on whether it is appropriate for Labour MPs to be helping out associates of gangs.

    http://tvnz.co.nz/politics-news/labour-mps-supported-gang-associates-3848292

    these sort of twits must give working people the warm crunchies

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  26. hj (6,359 comments) says:

    Does center right support Donald trump types?

    1. “Anonymous said…
    What you miss is that doing business in China is actually easier and quicker – not to mention cheaper – than doing business in NZ, the UK, or the USA.
    Sure in China you have to get a local party member or/and PLA officers onside. But once that’s done, it’s only a question of making some simple payments in obvious directions.
    Compare that to NZ, the UK, the USA. Politicians at all levels of government. Vast amounts of local, state, federal, union, and international regulation.
    In China there’s no “second guessing” – no damn court system that works against the decisions the government has made. There’s no damn protestors or pickets that interfere with your rights to development. And best of all, no unions actually mucking about with your business that you’re starting on your own damn money.
    China has none of this. Want land – pay, you get land. Want to build, you build. Want workers, you get workers. And that’s it.
    Compared to almost anywhere, China is a capitalist paradise.

    http://breakingviewsnz.blogspot.co.nz/2013/07/benjamin-herscovitch-authoritarian.html

    because extremism seems to be the hallmark of mmp?

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  27. kiwi in america (2,436 comments) says:

    The only thing saving Shearer (for now at least) is the lack of a clear successor wh has the numbers. Audrey Young hits the nail on the head over the paucity of attractive leadership talent. All the alternatives are fatally flawed: Cunliffe is hated by half the caucus and has a reputation for haughtiness and arrogance that National’s front bench would quickly expose; Robertson isn’t ready for prime time and an openly gay LOO then PM will do little to woo back Waitakete Man; Little is a union hack and represents the embodiment of the perverse influence unions have over Labour in a modern world with only 17% of the workforce unionized; Shane Jones will turn off women voters with his porn fling; Jacinda Adern is way not ready for prime time; Goff would be a failed retread; King or Mallard – tired carryovers from the Clark era. Have I missed anyone? David Parker maybe – ernest and sincere but nothing to set the word on fire. I’m sure Clayton Cosgrove fancies himself but he’s a white heterosexual male over 40 – precisely the type of person the man ban was designed to elbow out of a safe electorate seat like Christchurch East!

    Labour have only themselves to blame for this pool of talent so shallow that it enables Shearer to hang on by comparison (or even get elected in the first place). The sisterhood saw to it that the right leaning male self employed small c conservative working class membership of the party was driven away making way for the “gaggle of gays and trade unionists”. For decades Labour’s party membership looked like 50% of New Zealand and, whilst targeted towards the poorer 50%, it was a true broad church party. No longer is that the case – Labour’s activist base represents maybe 12-15% of New Zealanders and that’s a pretty shallow pool to draw MP talent from. Clark and co won a Pyrrhic victory over the right faction and the men that supported Rogernomics with the purge.

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