Polls update

August 21st, 2013 at 4:00 pm by David Farrar

Have just done a belated issue of the monthly polling newsletter for July. The graph of projected seats is interesting.

seats

 

The executive summary is:

July saw four political published in New Zealand – a Colmar Brunton, a reid Research and two Roy Morgan .

The average of the public polls has National 17% ahead of Labour – 2% more than in June. The seat projection is centre-right 63 seats, centre-left 55.

Kevin Rudd’s honeymoon in Australia has been short-lived and his approval rating has declined 20% in a month, and the Coalition lead by 4% in most polls indicating a possible 20 seat majority.

In the United States President Obama’s approval rating continues to decline, and his personal favourability is negative for the first time.

In the UK Labour’ leads over the Conservatives is shrinking and Labour leader Ed Miliband has very high disapproval ratings.

In Canada the opposition’s lead over the government has also shrunk, and the Conservatives are now forecast to win more seats than the Liberals.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.

By coincidence July was a good month for the centre-right in all five countries!

Since July there has been a Roy Morgan which keeps up its normal volatility, and this morning a Fairfax Ispso poll. Fairfax found that 75% of NZers say they are worried about the GCSB law, yet National remains high on 48%.

To my mind, this shows the difference between opinion and intensity of opinion. Sure 75% say in response to a question they are concerned – but not enough to change how they vote.

The analogy I would use is free range eggs. Around 85% of Kiwis say they do not like battery hen farming and around 75% say they will happily pay more for eggs that are free range, not battery. However free range eggs make up around only 9% of sales! The lesson being people say they are concerned – but not enough to do anything about it.

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25 Responses to “Polls update”

  1. leftyliberal (651 comments) says:

    “To my mind, this shows the difference between opinion and intensity of opinion. Sure 75% say in response to a question they are concerned – but not enough to change how they vote.”

    Yeah, it’s perfectly OK to pass a badly written law that opens the door for abuse as long as the public don’t complain enough to change their vote, right?

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  2. leftyliberal (651 comments) says:

    Interestingly, there’s been an increase in the percentage of undecideds in the fairfax/ipsos from 17.2% (May) to 20.6% (August).

    @DPF: Is this to be expected during the midpoint of the election cycle? Do we see a similar pattern in other polls?

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  3. Redbaiter (10,492 comments) says:

    Polling is merely a measure of how people react after being misinformed by a bunch of leftist clowns commonly called the mainstream media.

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  4. dad4justice (6,595 comments) says:

    Mainstream media is socialist media.

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  5. freedom101 (513 comments) says:

    National’s polling is very good, but where are its credible coalition partners? You can still lose with 47% of the vote, with Labout on 31-35%, as Labour can cobble together a coalition to make it over the line. This would make Italy look like a stable democracy, and would be fun to watch, except that it’s our own country.

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  6. Kea (13,580 comments) says:

    Yeah, it’s perfectly OK to pass a badly written law that opens the door for abuse as long as the public don’t complain enough to change their vote, right?

    leftyliberal, the most appalling attacks on our democratic freedoms were by the disgusting Clark. The hideous bitch was forgiven (by people like you) when she handed out unaffordable elections bribes to buy votes from the mindless masses. She even singled out and persecuted a religious minority and attacked the most basic democratic right to lend support to your chosen party. What is the bet you said nothing about that !

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  7. Alan (1,087 comments) says:

    Is it really needed to use words like “bitch” ?

    It’s unnecessarily misogynistic and lowers the whole tone of the debate.

    Show some class and play the ball not the man.

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  8. leftyliberal (651 comments) says:

    Kea: Why call Clark “disgusting” and a “hideous bitch”? Your argument would be just as persuasive without the vitriol.

    I don’t agree with many things that came into be under Clark, including many of those unaffordable election bribes you refer to, though I suspect for different reasons in some cases than yourself.

    I have no problem also with any group, religious or not, having the basic democratic right to lend support to a chosen party should they wish. I do believe that the support should be disclosed if it is of a large magnitude, however I agree that it’s a difficult balance between civil liberty and transparent democracy.

    I definitely agree (as, eventually, did all parties when it was repealed) that the Electoral Finances Act was bad legislation. Many on the left agreed with this position.

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  9. martinh (1,272 comments) says:

    That stat on free range eggs has me wondering about the quality of kiwi conscience, no wonder hypocritical gits typically run this country

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  10. Ryan Sproull (7,361 comments) says:

    That stat on free range eggs has me wondering about the quality of kiwi conscience, no wonder hypocritical gits typically run this country

    Well, I’d also compare that to the percentage of Kiwis for whom the difference in price between free range and battery farms is a serious consideration.

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  11. martinh (1,272 comments) says:

    Ryan, i dont think they give it serious consideration as most of the population can spare well over $3 a week when petrol prices rise

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  12. Kea (13,580 comments) says:

    Kea: Why call Clark “disgusting” and a “hideous bitch”?

    leftyliberal , because I was holding back. :)

    Alan, a great big fuck-you. You self righteous poser. You make me feel sick.

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  13. peterwn (3,341 comments) says:

    Reminds me of a poll commissioned by EnergyDirect in the early 1990’s when it gave away shares to power and gas customers in the Hutt Valley, Porirua etc. Most said they would chuck the share certificate (they still existed then) in the bottom drawer and collect the dividends. However when the shares were issued and certificates posted, El Cheapo Cars, L V Martin, etc, etc told people that whey were sitting on $1600 virtual cash and to bring them in to buy cars, TV’s etc. Not to mention sharebrokers who set up booths in malls who dished out $1600 cheques for the certificates. A significant percentage ended up in the hands of two players very quickly. Yes, polls can be very misleading.

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  14. kiwigunner (232 comments) says:

    If over the next 12 months Labour claw 3% more and Greens stay where they are – change of Govt. And fair enough, in my lifetime this is our worst govt. Certainly our worst Prime Minister.

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  15. thedavincimode (6,890 comments) says:

    Show some class and play the ball not the man

    Very good. I got it first.

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  16. transmogrifier (523 comments) says:

    Currently overseas; if Labour/Greens are the next government, I won’t be back anytime soon.

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  17. Ryan Sproull (7,361 comments) says:

    Ryan, i dont think they give it serious consideration as most of the population can spare well over $3 a week when petrol prices rise

    Sure, but they don’t have a cheaper petrol being sold right next to it, and if they did, they’d go with it. For a lot of households, buying considerably more expensive eggs for ethical reasons makes no sense on the budget when there are cheaper ones right on the same shelf.

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  18. Mark (1,502 comments) says:

    Interesting turnaround in the Roy Morgan poll over two weeks having national trailing the Labour/greens. Hopefully an aberrant poll. Time will tell whether keys stance on gcsb hurts national

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  19. Rob F (7 comments) says:

    Curia now considers NZ First a central party. Do you think Key and Peters can work together?

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  20. Manolo (14,188 comments) says:

    Each country get the government it deserves.

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  21. tvb (4,562 comments) says:

    There is no room for complacency in these polls. The left will be in a competitive position at the next election. Except I think the Green vote is overstated. Their policies are very negative and their economic agenda is extreme left wing. If the public thought they would wag the labour dog then they will lose support. I am not that impressed with Nathan Guy over the snapper problem. He needs to lift his game or get out of politics. He is not fronting. He treats the public as morons. MInd you snapper is a happy diversion from the GCSB matter.

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  22. Alan (1,087 comments) says:

    @Kea
    “Alan, a great big fuck-you. You self righteous poser. You make me feel sick.”

    Hate the sin but love the sinner ;-)

    I love you bro.

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  23. Lance (2,719 comments) says:

    @Alan
    Kea takes his elocution lessons from Redbaiter :-P

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  24. Alan (1,087 comments) says:

    On the subject of polling, I was surprised at the length of the sample period of the Roy Morgan poll; it was huge.

    I tend to disregard Roy Morgan and Horizon polls, although there is no doubt that we are facing a knife edge election. The center right had a 2 seat effective majority in 2008, 1 seat in 2011, when Labour was pretty much down to core vote.

    It’ll come down to ground game and Labour’s get out the vote operation more than anything I think.

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  25. Paulus (2,715 comments) says:

    Once Labour changes its leaders then the Greens vote will reduce as currently Labourites are saying they will vote Greens.
    It does not matter who leads Labour they will still be a sad disaster, however this country needs a viable opposition, not a rabble.

    It proves that MMP was and still is a disaster perpetrated by Greenpeace.
    Looks as though they have been found out in Germany and Australia, so we will see what the ides of September bring there.

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