A not very useful poll

September 14th, 2013 at 1:00 pm by David Farrar

The Dom Post reports:

John Morrison is leading incumbent Celia Wade-Brown in the race for the Wellington mayoralty, according to a poll of readers.

Note this is a poll of readers, not of adults. It is both unrepresentative and probably fairly self-selecting, so this means that any results are not necessarily representative of how Wellingtonians will vote. That is not to say Morrison may not be ahead, just that this “poll” is not a very useful indicator.

Mr Morrison, who has been a city councillor for the past 15 years, had support from 27 per cent of the 635 readers surveyed last week – while Ms Wade-Brown trails on 17 per cent.

Putting aside that it is not a representative sample, the sampling error would be 3.8%, if it really was a poll of 635 readers in Wellington City.

Of those surveyed, 275 were eligible to vote in the elections.

This is the number that counts and should have been highlighted earlier in the story.  That is a 5.9% margin of error.

In terms of raw numbers, 75 readers said they are voting Morrison, 47 readers Wade-Brown and 118 readers are undecided.

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4 Responses to “A not very useful poll”

  1. Ian McK (237 comments) says:

    Just get rid of the bike rider, she is only there by default.

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  2. leftyliberal (634 comments) says:

    Further, given it’s an STV election, what matters is who is rated higher, not who are you voting for. If those 118 undecideds all vote for others yet rate Wade-Brown above Morrison, then Wade-Brown will get in.

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  3. therealpaulyoung (1 comment) says:

    It’s worse than that David – I don’t think you can even deduce those numbers at the end. The percentages are given as a percentage of the readers surveyed, we have no idea how the split would be amongst those who are enrolled to vote in WCC. I assume there must be a lot of readers from outside Wellington City who were surveyed. The poll says almost nothing informative or reliable about how Wellingtonians will vote. What a joke.

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  4. adze (1,695 comments) says:

    Is there a list somewhere of councillors who vexatiously opposed the basin flyover? Because I want to vote those tossers out.

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