Cunliffe getting the members vote

September 13th, 2013 at 9:53 am by David Farrar

According to reports I’ve received, turnout in the members vote has increased and is now over 40%. Camp Cunliffe have implemented a large scale get out the vote operation phoning almost every Auckland member.

This makes it very hard for Robertson to win. One of his routes was through a low turnout, and that has gone. So the only other route would be through picking up extra votes in caucus, and I’m not sure there are enough uncommitted votes left.

In fact with Cunliffe looking much more likely of a win, it is quite possible that some MPs leaning Robertson will now vote Cunliffe. They’d do this for two reasons – one is to be on the winning team, and the other is so Cunliffe is seen to win all three sections, and doesn’t have stories about how he was foisted on the caucus.

NZ Labour do not reveal how each mp votes (unlike UK Labour which does), but as so many MPs are publicly committed to one camp, the overall voting result for the caucus will allow the camps to work out with a high degree of probability how each MP voted.

One wildcard in the members vote is Ikaroa-Rawhiti currently has 750 members due to the by-election contest. Now that is probably around 10% of the total for the country. If they vote in large proportions that will have an impact. However I suspect most joined just to vote for selecting a by-election candidate.

So with two days to go, I think it will be very very hard for Robertson to win. Cunliffe is not just the front runner now, but might win reasonably comfortably. Time will tell.

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12 Responses to “Cunliffe getting the members vote”

  1. bhudson (4,734 comments) says:

    DPF,

    I know that Labour caucus and not the leader choose the cabinet ministers when in govt. The leader only gets to allocate potfolios.

    Does the same hold true for the shadow cabinet? Will Cunliffe face a front bench selected by his opponents?

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  2. thedavincimode (6,539 comments) says:

    hudson

    He would need an entirely new front bench (aside from pornsey who no doubt wouldn’t mind going the other way). The next battle for him will be candidate selection – electorate and list.

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  3. hj (6,384 comments) says:

    Peoples : How would bring Maori & Pakeha into a multi-ethnic future? Labour Leadership Q&A #5
    http://blog.labour.org.nz/2013/09/11/peoples-how-would-bring-maori-pakeha-into-a-multi-ethnic-future-labour-leadership-qa-4

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  4. David Farrar (1,858 comments) says:

    The leader has total discretion over who is in the shadow cabinet.

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  5. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,812 comments) says:

    Because shadow cabinet positions are pretend job positions. i.e. Doesn’t matter.

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  6. Simon (687 comments) says:

    “When you want to help people, you tell them the truth. When you want to help yourself, you tell them what they want to hear.”

    Thomas Sowell.

    And so ends the Labour leadership contest.

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  7. bhudson (4,734 comments) says:

    Thanks DPF. That is one problem Cunliffe won’t have to deal with then – at least he can install a shadow cabinet that has his back (well mostly.)

    It will be interesting to see which Robertson loyalists will be retained in some sort of reasonably senior positions. Would you care to have a crack at who will be in the shadow cabinet, with what portfolios?

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  8. jaba (2,089 comments) says:

    Robertson and Cunliffe, when interviewed on the telly, constantly say they have met lots of New Zealanders struggling under this National lead Govt who want John Key gone.
    What they don’t realise, or choose to ignore, is that these New Zealanders are Labour members so they are correct in one way but deluded in another. These muppets already have their votes, they need to talk to the uncommitted or those who voted Gween or Winny1st.

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  9. LiberalismIsASin (288 comments) says:

    http://www.theconservative.co.nz/?q=node/415

    Have a good look at this picture and ask yourself is he the kind of person who should get within a square mile of the chance of becoming pm. New Zealand is a wicked nation that protects the evil sodomite and slays the innocent unborn.

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  10. Tom Jackson (2,458 comments) says:

    If Cunliffe wins, it will be a fun day trolling Mallard on Twitter.

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  11. Tom Jackson (2,458 comments) says:

    New Zealand is a wicked nation that protects the evil sodomite and slays the innocent unborn.

    What punishment do you think the courts should impose for homosexual behaviour?

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  12. RandySavage (196 comments) says:

    Farrars 1000th thread on the labor leadership race
    Almost obsessive this chap

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