Final Vote Model update

I’ve done some tweaking of the model, assuming EPMU vote is not as strong for Robertson as previously, and also that Cunliffe does better in the members vote. The final model (not a prediction – this is more a learning exercise) is:

Modelled Labour Vote by Section      
       
Raw Vote Cunliffe Robertson Jones
Caucus 35.3% 47.1% 17.6%
Unions 51.9% 35.1% 13.0%
Members 45.9% 40.8% 13.3%
       
Weighted Vote Cunliffe Robertson Jones
Caucus 14.1% 18.8% 7.1%
Unions 10.4% 7.0% 2.6%
Members 18.4% 16.3% 5.3%
       
Total Vote 42.9% 42.2% 15.0%
       
Second Preferences Cunliffe Robertson  
Caucus 47.1% 52.9%  
Unions 60.2% 39.8%  
Members 53.6% 46.4%  
       
Final Weighted Vote Cunliffe Robertson  
Caucus 18.8% 21.2%  
Unions 12.0% 8.0%  
Members 21.4% 18.6%  
       
Total Final Vote 52.3% 47.7%  

What it doesn’t take account of is different turn-out by region for the members. I understand Camp Cunliffe had a 48 hour call bank running where they called almost every member likely to vote for him. An operation like that can make a big difference.

But to balance that is one MP is worth several hundred members.

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