Final Vote Model update

September 14th, 2013 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

I’ve done some tweaking of the model, assuming EPMU vote is not as strong for Robertson as previously, and also that Cunliffe does better in the members vote. The final model (not a prediction – this is more a learning exercise) is:

Modelled Labour Vote by Section      
       
Raw Vote Cunliffe Robertson Jones
Caucus 35.3% 47.1% 17.6%
Unions 51.9% 35.1% 13.0%
Members 45.9% 40.8% 13.3%
       
Weighted Vote Cunliffe Robertson Jones
Caucus 14.1% 18.8% 7.1%
Unions 10.4% 7.0% 2.6%
Members 18.4% 16.3% 5.3%
       
Total Vote 42.9% 42.2% 15.0%
       
Second Preferences Cunliffe Robertson  
Caucus 47.1% 52.9%  
Unions 60.2% 39.8%  
Members 53.6% 46.4%  
       
Final Weighted Vote Cunliffe Robertson  
Caucus 18.8% 21.2%  
Unions 12.0% 8.0%  
Members 21.4% 18.6%  
       
Total Final Vote 52.3% 47.7%  

What it doesn’t take account of is different turn-out by region for the members. I understand Camp Cunliffe had a 48 hour call bank running where they called almost every member likely to vote for him. An operation like that can make a big difference.

But to balance that is one MP is worth several hundred members.

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15 Responses to “Final Vote Model update”

  1. jaba (2,118 comments) says:

    and then we will have the deputy selection ;-}

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  2. bhudson (4,736 comments) says:

    I wonder if Hipkins will switch his vote to stay in the shadow cabinet? (Not as Chief Whip of course, but retaining education)

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  3. Ross12 (1,373 comments) says:

    Half happy + half pissed off = more disunity.

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  4. gravedodger (1,545 comments) says:

    Still appears Labour will have a leader with 33% core support from caucus although that will change as chameleon sycophants make last minute efforts to climb into the lifeboat of Martin Luther Cunliffe.

    The subsequent slaughterhouse scenes will be gruesome compulsive viewing.

    The funeral scenes though, will be unifying and team building managed media shows, then the fun begins again.

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  5. seabreezeent (31 comments) says:

    Good God bring on Sunday, then we can all have a break from all the banal tweets, twats, bloggies and radio jocks tryin to out funny each other over the issue.

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  6. bhudson (4,736 comments) says:

    Not for long. This will be Labour’s 4th leader in under 5 years.

    Won’t be long before round 5 starts.

    [ding, ding. Seconds out]

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  7. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    Still think you are way off on the members. Cunliffe appears to be dominating to a ridiculous extent there.

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  8. bhudson (4,736 comments) says:

    Tom,

    Willing to agree that you have been worrying in vain yet?

    Cunners is going to sweep to victory and then let loose on the core of the ABCs.

    (I think Hipkins will get partial redemption for his performances on education, which are far better than any other caucus members have managed.)

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  9. thor42 (971 comments) says:

    I wonder who the deputy will be. Shane Jones? Jacinda Ardern?

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  10. jaba (2,118 comments) says:

    deputy MUST be a woman .. I assume

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  11. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    Willing to agree that you have been worrying in vain yet?

    Not quite yet. It is the Labour Party after all. ;)

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  12. Paulus (2,591 comments) says:

    An unhappy Caucus will take utu, and appoint Robertson as Deputy.
    After all he is not part of the man ban.

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  13. nickb (3,686 comments) says:

    Thanks for putting these together DPF, they are very good.

    When will the final result / vote be taken / known?

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  14. Ross12 (1,373 comments) says:

    A number of commenators have referred to Cunliffe’s business experience because he worked for Boston Consulting.
    Looking at the bio for him in the Dom Post it shows a four year period where he went to study at Harvard and worked at Bostn. I’d hardly call that business experience.
    In fact I would look at it the other way –he did an under graduate Pol Sci degree , worked at Treasury etc ( ie a bureaucrat) and then decided to look at business for a few years, did not like it so went back to bureaucracy/politics.

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  15. bhudson (4,736 comments) says:

    @nickb,

    Labour Party Prez to announce at 2:45pm tomorrow, I believe

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