I blogged yesterday on how the caucus looks to be voting on the Labour leadership. That was realatively easy to do, as that involves just 34 people, many of whom have publicly declared their intentions.
Based on feedback and some tweaks at the end of the day I had it Robertson 47%, Cunliffe 35% and Jones 18%, Of the total electoral college vote that would be 19%, 14% and 7% respectively. If you reallocate Jones then 21% Robertson to 19% Cunliffe. However that may change. The senior MPs are still strongly backing Robertson and may get some of the swinging MPs to fall behind them.
Now we have the union vote. First is how much does each union get. I estimated last week that the voting strengths were:
- EPMU (Engineering etc) 36,987 members, 41.5% of union vote, 8.3% of total vote
- SFWU (Service Food etc) 22,351 members, 25.1% of union vote, 5.0% of total vote
- MWU (Meat) 15,313 members, 17.2% of union vote, 3.4% of total vote
- DWU (Dairy) 7,000 members, 7.9% of union vote, 1.6% of total vote
- RMTU (Rail) 4,747 members 5.3% of union vote, 1.1% of total vote
- MUNZ (Maritime) 2,635 members, 3.0% of union vote, 0.6% of total vote
I asked the unions for details of what share of the vote they are, and how many delegates they have. The only union which has replied was the RMTU which kindly confirmed they have 26 voting delegates and affiliate on 3,000 members which makes them 6.44% of the union vote and 1.3% of the total vote. This suggests the total affiliate membership is 46,584.
As we don’t have precise numbers for the others , I’ll apportion out and so this gives us
EMPU – 41% of union vote, 8.2% of total vote, approx 60 delegates
The EPMU National Executive has not endorsed anyone but some EPMU figures such as Paul Tolich are very pro Robertson. Tolich failed to get an EPMU endorsement formally, but that does not mean there is not massive lobbying going on of the 60 or so delegates.
I’d guess that Robertson could get 65%, Cunliffe 25% and Jones 10%.
SWFU – 24.8% of union vote, 5.0% of total vote, any member can vote
Because they are allowing all members to vote, the influence of hierarchy is less. Cunliffe and Robertson are both playing to their members with their living wage promises. Those who are not involved in Labour but attend a meeting will probably find both equally good.
Cunliffe has some SWFU people on his team and a strong Auckland base so I’d go Cunliffe 55%, Robertson 30%, Jones 15%
MWU – 17.0% of union vote, 3.4% of total vote, approx 54 delegates
This one is very hard to pick. Their members are more provincial than urban, so Jones would do better with them. I’m sticking them down as Jones 34%, Cunliffe 33%, Robertson 33%.
DWU – 7.8% of union vote, 1.6% of total vote, approx 70 delegates
Like MWU hard to pick, and also provincial and rural based which Jones may appeal more to. The General Secretary is Chris Flatt, a former Labour Party General Secrtary. On the basis he will have some influence and the Labour Head Office is more pro Robertson, I’d go Robertson 40%, Jones 35%, Cunliffe 25%.
UPDATE: Their Exec has endorsed Cunliffe, so now assuming 70% vote Cunliffe.
RMTU – 6.4% of union vote, 1.3% of total vote, 30 delegates
Head office is in Wellington that may help Robertson a bit. Lots of provincial members. Say Robertson 40%, Cunliffe 35%, Jones 25%
MUNZ – 3.0% of union vote, 0.6% of total vote, approx 30 delegates
Their strongest branch is in Auckland and that should favour Cunliffe. Say Cunliffe 60%, Robertson 20%, Jones 20%
So how would this all come together.
|Round 1||Cunliffe||Jones||Robertson||Union %||Cunliffe||Jones||Robertson|
|Round 2||Cunliffe||Jones||Robertson||Union %||Cunliffe||Jones||Robertson|
Now again this is quite speculative, and I welcome feedback from people closer to the action into how they think the union delegates (or members) will vote.
What does this show us if we add it to the caucus vote.
Round 1 – Robertson 27.6%, Cunliffe 21.9%, Jones 10.5%
Round 2 – Robertson 31.7%, Cunliffe 28.3%
You need 50% to win. So it means Cunliffe has to pick up 22% of the 40% of the members vote and Robertson needs 18% of the 40%. More simply if the above estimates are in the right ballpark, then Cunliffe needs just over 54% of the members vote to win and Robertson needs almost 46%.
On Friday I’ll have a stab at how the members may vote. Their local MPs will have a fairly big influence on many members, along with their geography.
UPDATE: Herald has said the DWU Executive have recommended to their delegates they vote for Cunliffe. I’ve updated the table on assumption 70% vote Cunliffe.