Latest polls

September 25th, 2013 at 8:01 am by David Farrar

I’ve got details of the two latest at Curiablog. Sunday night’s One News Colmar Brunton poll and this morning’s Herald Digipoll. The former had little movement while the latter has a large swing to Labour.

curiappa

 

The time and size weighted average of all the public polls has it almost neck and neck with the CR bloc on 60 seats, CL on 62 seats and the Maori Party holding the balance of power on 3 seats. This assumes no changes in electorate seats.

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95 Responses to “Latest polls”

  1. Bovver (158 comments) says:

    The usual suspects at The Standard are absolutely creaming themselves about this, you can already hear the popping of organic non alcoholic nettle wine.

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  2. kiwi in america (2,494 comments) says:

    I’d be staggered if after weeks and weeks of free publicity during and after the leadership race that Labour didn’t get some sort of bounce. The One News poll showed a little. It will be interesting to see the Fairfax and TV 3 polls. Roy Morgan are not reliable. The Herald poll straddled more of the post leadership period when Cunliffe got a lot of media coverage.

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  3. Graeme Edgeler (3,279 comments) says:

    This assumes no changes in electorate seats.

    Are you still going to assume no change in electorate seats once there are more electorate seats and they have new boundaries?

    :-)

    Guess now we are almost in surplus it’s time for a change of government so it can all be undone again.

    That’s one way of looking at history.

    [DPF: Once we have new boundaries, I'll estimate majorities on the new boundaries and use those. This is not a small job!]

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  4. PaulP (144 comments) says:

    Guess now we are almost in surplus it’s time for a change of government so it can all be undone again.

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  5. Psycho Milt (2,401 comments) says:

    I’d put the chances of Winston First getting under 5% in the next election pretty low. Best to factor in around 8 MPs picking up salary and perqs as lobby fodder for Winnie – family-size humble pie for John Key, coming up…

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  6. Graeme Edgeler (3,279 comments) says:

    How on Earth did I reply to PaulP before he posted his comment?!

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  7. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    Lawl

    Just wait until Key gets back and Cunliffe puts him to the sword.

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  8. Ian McK (237 comments) says:

    I hope National’s No. 1 electorate executive, Flapper, is taking responsibility for this pathetic result.

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  9. Morgy (171 comments) says:

    I’m not at all convinced by the Herald poll and will be once we see a trend. This poll indicates a shift from National supporters to Labour because of David Cunliffe?? NOT a shift between the left bloc? Odd. If this rings true and resonates into next years election, then we will get what we deserve.

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  10. Mlec (13 comments) says:

    Just wait until Key gets back and Cunliffe puts him to the sword
    more like a rubber spoon

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  11. Harriet (4,727 comments) says:

    Key still hasn’t thrown out the smacking law or closed down the Ministry of Womens’ Batteries as he said he would.

    And also remember that Clinton took the ball and chain off the democrats by getting ‘tuff on law and order’ by locking people up for longer. Key only needs to use The sanctity of Life and other arguements that are used to support the Death Penalty to have murder sentances increased by 20yrs or so.
    Colin Craig could also do exactly the same and get the conservatives to leave National, and remember, Liberal ACT only took a few voters away from National, meaning that most National voters are actually conservative!

    Anything could yet happen in the polls.

    I seriously believe the Conservatives will get 10+% if they go for the party vote – they can then ‘keep that bastard Key honest’ with regards to Nationals values of small government ect.

    John Key is becoming a flacid metrosexual just like Cameron in the UK has, and the Conservatives should take to him head on like UKIP in the UK have. Act did – and over 10% of National voters left National.

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  12. Steve Taylor (211 comments) says:

    Frankly, as a centre-right voter, those figures are disturbing to me. If the balance of power is to return to New Zealand First, then given past history, it would be no guarantee that NZ First would not do a deal with Labour.

    Thank goodness John Key has nominated his other option: http://tvnz.co.nz/politics-news/key-could-seek-pre-election-deal-conservative-party-5530338

    I suspect however that Mr Key is going to have to offer more than a “cup of tea” to the Conservative Party – anyone who has actually met Mr Craig will attest to this -I’m not even sure Craig drinks tea……………..

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  13. Ian McK (237 comments) says:

    Who gives a shit about the UN Security Council, it is as useless as the deadbeat weirdos in Labour . . . after all, when failing in Parliament, they either leech off ratepayers or go to the UN, especially if they are part of the gaggle.

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  14. Wayne Mapp (65 comments) says:

    John Key never said he would throw out the anti-smaking law. In fact he engineered the compromise with Helen Clark. If you are going to blame political leaders for not keeping promises, at least get your facts right.

    If you want to back the Conservatives, fair enough, but in my view they won’t get 5%, which is really hard to do (ask Winston). The Christian coalition came close in 1996, but that was the high water mark. Christians are more likely to get 2 to 3 %.

    So in terms of the make up of Parliament, it is a wasted vote. And if the Conservative support is mostly from the Right, and with a name like that, it will be, then a Conservative vote actually helps Labour.

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  15. GJKiwi (180 comments) says:

    You state that the balance of power goes to the Maori party? As if there are no other possible coalition options in that lot. So, you’re assuming that Green/Labour? What about National/Labour? You see, that is the problem with New Zealand, dont’ think outside of the box. That way you’d have a very large majority and the little people (ACT, Maori, New Zealand First, Mana and United Future) would have little say. It is what will be happening in Germany (CDU/CSU and the SDP). However, that won’t happen here because of inflexible thinking. That is of course if the Maori party actually get any seats. Has anybody done any polling in the Maori Electorates? It could be conceivable that they get fewer MPs. As you say, it assumes no changes in the electorate seats, of which there are many possibilities, but not likely with the National Party supporters who continue to prop up ACT and United Future, and Labour supporters who continue to prop up the Maori Party and the Mana Party. That won’t always be the way, but until ACT and United Future disappear, with the demise of Peter Dunne and John (I’m a liar, criminal and a hypocrite) B, we will have this split, with a minority of the popular vote (I’m not including that portion of the vote for parties who don’t make the threshold), we will always have this. Still a much better result than having one party getting the bulk of the seats with less than 50% of the vote, e.g. National in 1975 with 47% of the popular vote getting 63% of the seats, and 1984 with Labour getting 58% of the seats with 43% of the vote, and only Social Credit representing other New Zealanders with 2 seats and 7% of the vote.

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  16. Steve Wrathall (278 comments) says:

    “once we have new boundaries, I’ll estimate majorities on the new boundaries…”
    How can this be anything other than guesswork? If Epsom or Ohariu gain territory from other electorates the electorate vote behavior of voters will be totally different as they previously were not in a trigger electorate

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  17. GJKiwi (180 comments) says:

    Steve: good call. If Epsom and Ohariu go, so goes National’s primary coalition partners.

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  18. nasska (11,065 comments) says:

    The CCCP manifesto from 2011 would suggest that 80% of their policies would be a better fit within Labour than National. The remaining 20% that aim at installing big government in the bedrooms of the nation fall outside the interest of either major party & would be toxic to the minnows.

    In reality they may really only represent 1.6% of the electorate as shown consistently in all polls. Anyone who seriously thinks that they will be in a position to bargain after the next election is at risk of spilling his seed on the ground.

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  19. Harriet (4,727 comments) says:

    Wayne Mapp#

    “…..So in terms of the make up of Parliament, it is a wasted vote. And if the Conservative support is mostly from the Right, and with a name like that, it will be, then a Conservative vote actually helps Labour…..”

    So how exactly then did ACT help Labour?

    “…If you want to back the Conservatives, fair enough, but in my view they won’t get 5%, which is really hard to do (ask Winston)…”

    They’re not Winston, nor Douglas, nor the Green battery acid! And they all got 5% – are you saying that the Conservatives would been seen as being more reckless than Winston and the Greens?

    “…The Christian coalition came close in 1996, but that was the high water mark. Christians are more likely to get 2 to 3 %…”

    That’s 18yrs ago – 6 election cycles – in that time more Christians have immigrated into NZ and increasing numbers of young people are now looking at religion – not the old organised types – but at religion in general, and along with the current mentality of parliment ignoring moral points of view[gay marriage, abortion, euthenasia, weak sentancing laws for murder ect] it is then reasonable to believe that 3% is no longer a high watermark. 81.3% of people polled on Cambell Live on the night of the GM Bill being passed voted against it – and that was the second highest number of votes ever polled by Cambell Live. Labour and National are on the nose with religious people and non-religious people, over the likes of GM and the pushing of sexuality on to the young. 5% is most certainly achievable.

    “….John Key never said he would throw out the anti-smaking law. In fact he engineered the compromise with Helen Clark. If you are going to blame political leaders for not keeping promises, at least get your facts right….

    You’re probably right as I live in QLD.

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  20. dime (9,787 comments) says:

    Maori to hol the balance of power? Sweet! they will no doubt go with National BAHAHAHAAHA

    Wish the right had some racist seats to help our cause.

    How about 7 electorates and to qualify you have to be white & earn 100k a year in the private sector. that would help even things out. AND when they get to parliament, they only care about rich white people. they arent ashamed of it. hell, they promote it and the media and the UN is cool with it.

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  21. Steve Taylor (211 comments) says:

    Hi Wayne: I’m not sure of the relevance of the comparison is between the “Christian Coalition” of 1996, and the Conservative Party of 2013? The CEO of the Party is a Buddhist, the Leader of the Party doesn’t even go to Church, and the membership of the party seems to present as quite diverse?

    I’m also puzzled by your appeal to Harriet to “get her facts right” when you then address your own feedback about the Conservative Party on a platform of “opinion”.

    It thus may well be that the Conservative Party draw votes from across the political spectrum -they garnered 2.6% of the vote last time around 8 weeks out from an Election, just by showing up :)

    Wasted vote? Hmmmm, I guess time will tell closer to the event.

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  22. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (866 comments) says:

    Well game over folks…both at America’s cup and in NZ politics. National did all the hard work and Labour comes and snatches it from behind. Feel sorry for John Key & co. I understand both TV3 and Roy Morgan polls are showing similar trends. Remember TV1 poll was not a full poll conducted after David Cunliffe selection. Only 75% of the poll was conducted after he was selected.

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  23. Steve Taylor (211 comments) says:

    Hi Nasska:

    Onan reference aside, I would invite you to expand on the “80% of their policies would be a better fit within Labour than National” comment: which ones, and how?

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  24. dime (9,787 comments) says:

    “Remember TV1 poll was not a full poll conducted after David Cunliffe selection.”

    Good, that will help get things back to normal. Once people see cunliffe for what he is.

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  25. Steve Taylor (211 comments) says:

    Hi Sir Cullen:

    I have noted your commentary on this issue over the weeks and months, and based on the latest poll results, and as a centre-right voter, I concede that you may be “leaning” towards accuracy on the issue you have both raised, and have consistently defended.

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  26. scrubone (3,090 comments) says:

    Hi Wayne: I’m not sure of the relevance of the comparison is between the “Christian Coalition” of 1996, and the Conservative Party of 2013?

    They are after (broadly) the same voters, and like the CC have no real completion for that particular voting block.

    I’m not convinced they’ll do well though.

    However, (as unlikely as it is) if the PI community realise that Labour is actually working against their values while taking their vote, there’s a possible shift there.

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  27. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    Conservatives 1.1 %

    This will be the great conservative uprising Red has been telling us about ? The vile hoardes of commie progs must be terrified by this result :)

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  28. jaba (2,117 comments) says:

    Hone Hawaira is getting really excited

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  29. Viking2 (11,334 comments) says:

    Need some decent right wing policy. If you cintinually compromise towards the centre then you get what you deserve. Mediocrity.

    By the time the milk money comes home and gets spent the voters will all feel good and vote for the left as they do so they can have nice nice’s.

    Was totally amused at english blatting at ASB. Blaming the bank for doing what the government wants.

    This govt. had so much potential but like Team NZ when it came to the crunch chocked.

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  30. dime (9,787 comments) says:

    Surely National will hand out some lollies next election?

    God knows what. its hard to give the poor a tax cut when they hardly pay tax. if they give it to the middle class you have the media screaming “tax cuts for the rich” blah blah

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  31. jaba (2,117 comments) says:

    the Maori Party will be a different beast after the next election .. if they survive .. Flavell is now in charge

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  32. nasska (11,065 comments) says:

    Steve Taylor

    Sorry…they’ve taken down the 2011 manifesto at http://www.nzcpr.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1182 & I can’t find another copy.

    The point I was making although is that the Conservatives are authoritarian busy bodies, just like your average socialist.

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  33. Steve Taylor (211 comments) says:

    Hi Scubone: The Party membership of the Christian Coalition back in 1996 barely got close to (from memory) 2000.

    The Conservative Party of 2013 reportedly have over 5000 members and counting.

    Now I haven’t completed a population strata analysis of the Conservative Party membership, but attracting over double the number of members, a year out from an Election, would indicate to me that the only thing “broad” about the Conservative Party is their breadth of membership.

    I guess my observation of the PI voting community is that, no matter what gets thrown at them as a voting bloc by Labour, they will never, ever abandon Labour as their political “home” – because I suspect that from a cultural perspective, loyalty counts, even when it is not reciprocated.

    Open to being challenged on this however if anyone feels I have the “read” wrong.

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  34. Evadne (88 comments) says:

    NASSKA/STEVE – the “80% of CCCP’s policies being closest to Labour” comment surprised me too. Here’s their main policies from their website, with a punt at what they’re closest too. Seems a better fit for ACT than anyone else. What do others think?

    Economy:

    Government budgets balanced and debt reduced – NAT

    Cut the waste and focus on core services – NAT

    No asset sales, no large land sales to foreigners, no ETS and free trade only if on a level playing field – LAB

    Reduced compliance requirements and costs for businesses – NAT

    Stimulate the economy through growth in agriculture, fisheries, mining & manufacturing – NAT (esp. mining & ag)

    Health:

    Money saved from reduced management and waste used to improve frontline services and shorten waiting list – NAT

    Re-directing the current spend to primary healthcare and preventive health programs in order to reduce the health system load – ??

    Natural health products remain widely available with no undue restrictions – ?? (looney GREEN)

    ACC focus to be patient rehabilitation – ??

    Substantial improvement to aged care – ??who knows what this means??

    Education:

    Greater efficiency and reduction in the Ministry with savings used to decrease class sizes and improve resourcing – NAT

    Funding follows the child giving parents greater choice in education – ACT

    Put in place youth and adult apprenticeship programs and employment skills training – NAT?LAB?

    Where a shortage of skilled professionals exist, students enrolled in core tertiary courses receive additional funding with reciprocal bond – ??

    Social, Law and Order:

    Welfare based on needs not wants and the unemployed work for the benefit – ACT / NAT

    More controls on alcohol, gambling and drugs – GREEN (except drugs)

    Victim’s rights before those of the criminal – ACT

    Previous convictions disclosed in trial and no concurrent sentences – ACT

    Work during a prison term and no early release. Restorative justice – ACT

    Sovereignty:

    Binding referenda & reduced size of government – Binding ref: looney greens probably. Reduced government – ACT

    One nation, remove the Maori seats and end the treaty settlements – ACT

    No sovereignty ceded through the signing of international/UN agreements – ??

    Dedicated defence force, well equipped to protect our territorial area and to play our part internationally – NAT

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  35. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    Key tacked too hard to the right this term. If he’d kept going as Helen lite, this wouldn’t have happened.

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  36. Steve Taylor (211 comments) says:

    Hi Kea: I suspect “terror” may not initially be their first emotional experience :)

    I am aware that not all “uprisings” arrive like a Tsunami – maybe this process is a “slow build” for the Conservative Party?

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  37. Lance (2,613 comments) says:

    Won’t Labour and the Greens have to actually show how they are going to pay for the vast Grecian scale handouts?
    Or will they get a free ride on that?

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  38. Steve Taylor (211 comments) says:

    Hi Nasska:

    “The point I was making although is that the Conservatives are authoritarian busy bodies, just like your average socialist”

    Goodness, that is not my read of Classical Conservative thinking and philosophy: http://www.kirkcenter.org/index.php/thought/

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  39. Steve Taylor (211 comments) says:

    Thanks Evadne -you pulled that together very quickly.

    Certainly leans more towards the centre-right, doesn’t it?

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  40. nasska (11,065 comments) says:

    Steve Taylor

    Alas you are confusing the admirable “Ten Conservative Principles (1993)” with a package put together by a disgruntled bloke with a few bob who decided to create a political party in his own image.

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  41. Evadne (88 comments) says:

    Thanks Steve. Forgot to add link to the page I got the policies from: http://www.conservativeparty.org.nz/index.php?page=Issues It certainly made for interesting reading.

    No mention there of their moral stances re. gay marriage, euthanasia etc, though.

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  42. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    Won’t Labour and the Greens have to actually show how they are going to pay for the vast Grecian scale handouts?

    Yep, and they will. I’m guessing you won’t like it, though. The selection of Parker as DL demonstrates that they aren’t going to have unfunded promises.

    And please… please… let National do a deal with Colin Craig. I can think of nothing more likely to drive voters to Labour.

    GET IT INTO YOUR HEADS: THE VAST MAJORITY OF NEW ZEALANDERS DO NOT LIKE AND WILL NOT VOTE FOR AVOWED SOCIAL CONSERVATIVES.

    This goes for many who are socially conservative themselves. They might not personally approve of homosexuality, but they recognise that it is, like religion, a personal issue, which they would rather the government kept out of.

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  43. Steve Taylor (211 comments) says:

    Hi Evadne: This link might be helpful on issues of morality (and I suppose, conscience):

    http://www.conservativeparty.org.nz/index.php?page=AskColin

    It’s a page whereby people can write in a question about whatever subject they wish to canvas the Conservative Party about, and Colin Craig answers the enquiry directly: I’m pretty sure that there is not an “Ask Winston” page – would we ever get a straight answer?

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  44. flipper (3,908 comments) says:

    Ian McK (186) Says:
    September 25th, 2013 at 8:48 am
    I hope National’s No. 1 electorate executive, Flapper
    *****

    The illiterate moron, Ian McK, who has only recently come from no where, or changed his name, is at it again, demonstrating his inability to read and comprehend.

    Time you went back to school, you silly, racist, trolling, fart

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  45. Steve Taylor (211 comments) says:

    Hi Tom:

    “GET IT INTO YOUR HEADS: THE VAST MAJORITY OF NEW ZEALANDERS DO NOT LIKE AND WILL NOT VOTE FOR AVOWED SOCIAL CONSERVATIVES”.

    The key word for me in this comment is “majority”, and for what it is worth, I think you may actually be right.

    However, the Conservative Party doesn’t seem to be campaigning on winning over the “majority” – best as I can read it, they are after just 117,560 votes (approx. 5% of the Party Vote), and last time around they got over half of these just by fronting up.

    I guess we will soon find out if the Conservative Party do indeed get over the line?

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  46. Steve Taylor (211 comments) says:

    Nasska:

    Some one else in NZ has read these?

    We should start a group…………………………

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  47. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    However, the Conservative Party doesn’t seem to be campaigning on winning over the “majority” – best as I can read it, they are after just 117,560 votes (approx. 5% of the Party Vote), and last time around they got over half of these just by fronting up.

    I don’t think they’ll get anywhere close to that, and if they looked like doing so, it would drive soft National voters to Labour. American style politics does not work here.

    Funny thing is, I think that Cunliffe would appeal to socially conservative voters more than Key. Cunliffe is a sober, churchgoing lad, who would look like a fish out of water at the big gay out. Key on the other hand, comes across as more personally liberal, and looked right at home at the BGO.

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  48. Graeme Edgeler (3,279 comments) says:

    So in terms of the make up of Parliament, it is a wasted vote. And if the Conservative support is mostly from the Right, and with a name like that, it will be, then a Conservative vote actually helps Labour.

    I have never liked this argument. It assumes that people who choose to vote for the Conservative Party (or other minor parties) are stupid, and don’t know that if they voted for another party then the result might be different. I suspect that vast majority of them are well aware of this and are willing to do it anyway because of their feelings about the other parties .

    In short, if they are “from the Right”, they are saying: ‘yes, as it happens, we are so disenchanted with what the right offers us at the moment that we are prepared to vote in a way which makes a Labour victory more likely’. That is a perfectly proper voting strategy, and if it concerns National or others on the right, then the solution is in their hands. Other voters may be playing a longer game, “yes, I know the Conservatives/Other-Minor-Party will not get 5% in this election, but I am happy to trade the increased chance of a Labour/whoever victory for the possibility that over time my favoured minor party will have a chance of getting into Parliament, and if that happens, it will have been worth the short-term disappointment”.

    Political parties do not own voters, and have no right to expect them to act in their best short-term interests.

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  49. Harriet (4,727 comments) says:

    Steve Taylor#

    “…However, the Conservative Party doesn’t seem to be campaigning on winning over the “majority” – best as I can read it, they are after just 117,560 votes (approx. 5% of the Party Vote), and last time around they got over half of these just by fronting up….”

    To quote Clive Palmer:

    “The Aust Greens took 20yrs to get a Senate seat, we took just 8 weeks to get two!”

    The Conservatives are a certainty to get 5% – and with a louder Christian voice it will only entice more Catholics and Pacific Islanders away from Labour.

    John Pagani saw the danger of the Conservatives to Labour at the last election.

    His first piece at Stuff outright suggested that the conservatives were right wing and should join up with Act. I told Pagani that there were no votes out there and that the Conservatives would put themselves down right about where Winston is. They’ve done that, and as you have said – are now drawing votes from everywhere. Abortion doesn’t sit well with the Catholics ect in Labour and neither will euthanasia. Cheers.

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  50. Chi Hsu (99 comments) says:

    Bovver (17) Says:
    September 25th, 2013 at 8:22 am

    The usual suspects at The Standard are absolutely creaming themselves about this, you can already hear the popping of organic non alcoholic nettle wine.

    And the usual suspects here at Kiwiblog will spin this as being no big deal…

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  51. Steve Taylor (211 comments) says:

    Hi Tom:

    Being an ensconced resident within David Cunnliffe’s New Lynn Electorate, I can say with some significant confidence that Cunnliffe appeals to almost no one particular group – I am surmising that this is because he “shape-shifts” so often that, just when I think he is in Camp A, he goes and “Yeah Bro’s” or “Youse fulla’s” it at the Avondale markets (or more recently, up North), and blow ne down, he has shifted to Camp B.

    “American style politics does not work here”.

    Ummm…Labour just ran an American-style “Primary”, which resulted in a 6.8% leap in the polls for their Party.

    I’m not sure what your definition of “does not work” is, but………………..?

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  52. Steve Taylor (211 comments) says:

    Hi Graeme:

    “Political parties do not own voters, and have no right to expect them to act in their best short-term interests”.

    Agreed – especially considering that “short-term interest” thinking is an oxymoron to Classical Conservative thinking and philosophy.

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  53. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (866 comments) says:

    Thanks Steve Taylor, I appreciate your comments. Unfortunately I seem to have the power of seeing things in the future…i.e. only bad things…like TNZ’s defeat at America’s cup, National’s defeat in 2014…..Sad, but can’t help it.

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  54. Steve Taylor (211 comments) says:

    Hi Harriet:

    Yes, the vote-pull is most certainly wider than any one particular faith paradigm.

    Maybe I SHOULD do a Conservative Party population strata analysis……………………..:)

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  55. Steve Taylor (211 comments) says:

    Hi Sir Cullen: It must be a curse having such a gift – you any good at Lotto?

    I have tried to summon some purposeful response to the current predicament of Team New Zealand – however, I just can’t seem to manage it.

    If Spitthal pulls this off – I will only be able to stand back in open-mouthed shock and applaud him.

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  56. Redbaiter (8,226 comments) says:

    Wayne Mapp-

    So in terms of the make up of Parliament, it (Conservative Party) is a wasted vote.

    No it is not.

    It sends the message to you wet National Party progressives who should be in Labour that we’re not going to take any of your shit anymore.

    Pity you’re retired or I could tell you to shape up or ship the fuck out.

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  57. Redbaiter (8,226 comments) says:

    John Key called Colin Craig insane.

    Now the hopeless prog wants an alliance with him.

    That’s what happens when you’re told what to do and say by equally hopeless progressive media “advisors”.

    Really just left wing stooges out of touch with real NZ. Key needs to wake up, ditch these losers and return to National’s founding principles.

    As Steve Taylor said above, the Conservatives only need to win more than 5% of the vote to become an effective force in NZ politics.

    That all of the left and their prog friends on this site are saying it is impossible for them to achieve this target makes me hope even more that they will.

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  58. Steve Taylor (211 comments) says:

    Hi Red:

    I’ve never been in the colloquially named “beltway” before, so my next statement is more of a musing, as opposed to a position:

    Is it possible, that once secure within the “beltway”, any evidence of political / societal shifts are felt by those within the beltway, last?

    I ask this because of the phenomena known as “internal polling”, and I wonder as to where the “internal” part of this process actually resides?

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  59. Harriet (4,727 comments) says:

    Steve Taylor#

    You know a bloke by the name of Andrew or Kimbo?

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  60. Steve Taylor (211 comments) says:

    Hi Red:

    If doing the same thing, the same way, and expecting a different result at the end is an oft-quoted definition of insanity, then it could appear to the casual observer that Mr Key may have been hoisted by his own petard.

    I’m quite fond of the saying “Always make sure your words are sweet and tender, for one day you may have to eat them”.

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  61. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    That all of the left and their prog friends on this site are saying it is impossible for them… blah blah blah

    More impotent ranting from our resident 1%er

    Democracy is a cruel bitch ain’t it Red ? :)

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  62. Steve Taylor (211 comments) says:

    Hi Harriet:

    I know thousands of people through my line of work – are you able to be a bit more specific?

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  63. Harriet (4,727 comments) says:

    No don’t worry. Just I’ve read your style of writing elsewhere.

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  64. Redbaiter (8,226 comments) says:

    The dullard and coward Nasska still claiming the Conservatives are authoritarian when he and his prog mates have over the last fourty years built the biggest most authoritarian monolithic government edifice this country has ever seen.

    While wishy washy progs like Nasska sat on their hands and whined about freedom our liberty was taken from right under our noses and these dumb fuckers still don’t know that it is down to them and their limp dicked political confusion.

    Holding hands and singing Peter Paul and Mary songs while the left squeezed their balls in a vice.

    What we need to do is defeat the progs, for it is they who have been most of all to blame for NZ’s descent into soft neo-fascism. Not because they were directly responsible, but because in their lame abject political ignorance, they enabled those who wanted it.

    First defeat the Progressives in both parties, and then we can deal with the left with out being stabbed in the back by cowards losers and jerkoffs who don’t know their political arse from their elbow.

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  65. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    Ummm…Labour just ran an American-style “Primary”, which resulted in a 6.8% leap in the polls for their Party.

    Fair enough. I was referring to the culture war stuff.

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  66. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    our liberty was taken from right under our noses

    Our “liberty” to tell others who than can marry, for example ?

    Our “liberty” for central government to impose the beliefs of bronze age desert cults on other people ?

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  67. Steve Taylor (211 comments) says:

    Hi Harriet:

    I post under my own name – just ask Cameron Slater :)

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  68. Shazzadude (525 comments) says:

    Kiwi in America

    ” Roy Morgan are not reliable.”

    Actually over the last three elections the Roy Morgan has been the most accurate in election week over the last three elections, although they have a trend of underestimating Labour’s support and overestimating the Greens’ support.

    Then again, you thought Nate Silver was unreliable.

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  69. Redbaiter (8,226 comments) says:

    “Is it possible, that once secure within the “beltway”, any evidence of political / societal shifts are felt by those within the beltway, last?”

    I am sure that happens.

    The first problem with it is that they are wrong but they will never know it.

    The second problem is that they are able, because of their access to media, government, and funding, influence opinion.

    So those who are actually in disagreement are swamped by a deluge of opinion that they in reality do not agree with, but because of its source and its magnitude, start to doubt their own judgment.

    Therefore the wrong thinking of the beltway becomes to some degree self fulfilling.

    The whole purpose of my writing here and elsewhere is to let those who doubt flavour of the century prog policies know that their doubt and disbelief and apprehension is shared.

    We must all be true to ourselves, above the scorn and mocking of the cowards and statist who would destroy us, but not only that, more importantly we should speak that truth as far as we can so others know they are not alone.

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  70. Harriet (4,727 comments) says:

    “…..Our “liberty” for central government to impose the beliefs of bronze age desert cults on other people ?…”

    Our “liberty” for central government to impose the beliefs of new age cults on other people ?

    Yesterday you were bagging out someone for advocating a genderless society…….What gender are you Kea…..we know you have a huge dick….but that is no longer relevant in the public square…..even if you need to piss out of it you will find a genderless toilet in the public square to do so.

    And you bag out Christians?……….we’re on your side!

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  71. Redbaiter (8,226 comments) says:

    Kea, you need to educate yourself about the three percenters.

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  72. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    The whole purpose of my writing here and elsewhere is to let those who doubt flavour of the century prog policies know that their doubt and disbelief and apprehension is shared.

    Shared… by a lone lunatic from Tauranga. ;-)

    Must be very comforting.

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  73. Ian McK (237 comments) says:

    Flapper: But you are so clever, you state an opinion on everything, showing the brilliance of a successful National Party executive; yet, as I have found out, you are no better than what was once referred to as a “Sydney Flash”, being all hair oil and no socks. According to others in the know, you are no better than a left-wing Labour loser!

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  74. Samuel Smith (276 comments) says:

    See ya later National.

    Take into consideration that ACT, UF and the Maori Party are unlikely to exist after the next election and it’s good-bye John Key.

    Bring on those tax increases for rich pricks.

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  75. Redbaiter (8,226 comments) says:

    “Shared… by a lone lunatic from Tauranga.”

    Have never lived in Tauranga, but don’t let fact distract you from your mindless repetition of unfounded internet claims.

    Also, by far the most favoured commentator on Whaleoil before I was banned for calling Slater an arsehole.

    So your attempt to marginalise me and my views is shown to be nothing but the usual untruthful and cowardly Stalinist propaganda of the style that progressives have used for so long.

    We’re coming after you Tom. With Ted Cruz and Daniel Hannan and Mike Lee and Nigel Farage striding the world political stage we are under way and we will wipe you and your destructive ideology from our lives and restore prosperity and hope.

    As Tom Cruz said yesterday, on the verge of winning his battle against almost the whole of the progressive beltway of Republicans and Democrats-

    “We have to do something Conservatives haven’t done in along time. We have to stand up and win the argument.”

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  76. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    Have never lived in Tauranga

    Tui billboard there, eh Russ?

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  77. Harriet (4,727 comments) says:

    And Tony Abott went straight up against the left and never flinched for over 4 yrs!

    It’s the end of time for all you progs Tom.

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  78. Redbaiter (8,226 comments) says:

    “Tui billboard there, eh Russ?”

    Believe what you like you smug smirking self infatuated idiot.

    Its just one more thing in so many of the things you are wrong about.

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  79. kiwi in america (2,494 comments) says:

    Shazzadude
    More recently the Roy Morgan poll has shown quite marked volatility with increases and decreases in support that fluctuate significantly more wildly between polling periods than any of the other of the major reputable polls. I really should’ve defined what I meant by unreliable.

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  80. bringbackdemocracy (418 comments) says:

    At least the Conservatives offer something different to; red Labour, blue Labour and green Labour.
    Nice to see them well positioned as NZ’s 5th most popular party, with more support than 4 of the parties currently in parliament.

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  81. Changeiscoming (175 comments) says:

    No one has pointed out the obvious glaring flaw in DPF’s analysis:
    From Curiblog – •CL – Labour 43 + Greens 16 + Mana 1 – Mr DPF which one of these parties has anything to do with the centre?

    Mana and the Greens are no where near the centre, they are far left and Labour are also.

    If you were being accurate you should be saying:
    FL – Labour 43 + Greens 16 + Mana 1
    CL – National 59
    CR – Vacant – (except ACT on fiscal policy)

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  82. Ross12 (1,364 comments) says:

    Two words for these polls —- Australia , Rudd.

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  83. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    Its just one more thing in so many of the things you are wrong about.

    You’re the easybeat on this board, and by some way too.

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  84. kowtow (8,093 comments) says:

    This has been a good thread with some good posts.

    nasska with his onanism , bedrooms and lies about the Conservatives “control” agenda…..what can one say?

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  85. Redbaiter (8,226 comments) says:

    “You’re the easybeat on this board, and by some way too.”

    Only leftists are sufficiently deluded to think they can be competitor and umpire at the same time.

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  86. Redbaiter (8,226 comments) says:

    “nasska with his onanism”

    So amazingly ignorant in his perceptions of Conservatism its like talking rocket science with a tuatua in its shell.

    He and all his other progressive mates the same.

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  87. Steve Taylor (211 comments) says:

    Hi bringbackdemocracy:

    Yes, the embedded positioning of the Conservative Party as the 5th highest polling party seems to be an observation regularly dismissed when various polls are reviewed on TV – and yet it keeps happening. I would have thought the MSM were now beyond the practice of sticking their collective fingers in their ears and chanting “la, la, la, la, la, I am not listening! I am not listening!” every time the Conservative Party rate again (and again).

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  88. Yoza (1,758 comments) says:

    Redbaiter, is there an expression for something being easier to hit than ‘shooting fish in a barrel’?

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  89. Warren Murray (298 comments) says:

    Assuming no change in electorates is misguided, with Pita and Tariana retiring, their seats could fall to Labour. Not sure that Banks will be back either and even if Dunne doesnt retire, his hold on Ohariu relies on Shanks (or who ever the National candidate will be) campaigning for the party vote, so looks like a line call. that strategy could also be adopted by G Hughes.

    I agree, it will be interesting to see how the new boundaries affect things.

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  90. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    Also, by far the most favoured commentator on Whaleoil before I was banned for calling Slater an arsehole.

    Favoured by a percentage of that 1.1% no doubt. (I will ignore the narcissistic boasting)

    So your attempt to marginalise me and my views is shown to be nothing but the usual untruthful and cowardly Stalinist propaganda of the style that progressives have used for so long.

    Here we have Red telling us he is a marginalised minority. (How does it feel buddy ?)

    We’re coming after you Tom.

    Yawn. :)

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  91. OneTrack (2,959 comments) says:

    Samuel Smith – “Bring on those tax increases for rich pricks.”

    Pretty much the whole reasoning behind the left – politics of envy.

    How much is “rich” Sam? Because Cunliffe made a shed load of promises and I don’t think we have that many “rich pricks” left in New Zealand – $50K, $60K? And what happens when some of these “rich pricks” get reamed by the envious left, and decide fuck this, and either close their company down and retire, or move their business to a more receptive environment ( one of which just opened up next door).

    I guess Cunliffe can make some more jobs available on the railways, checking the tracks. No jobs in mining or petroleum, because the coalition partner won’t allow it.

    Yeah, a brave world – if you are an Auckland taxi driver who services the airport I guess.

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  92. weizguy (120 comments) says:

    “Also, by far the most favoured commentator on Whaleoil before I was banned for calling Slater an arsehole.”

    Redbaiter: The nutters’ nutter

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  93. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    weizguy, watch it or Red will threaten to “come after you” too :)

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  94. muggins (3,340 comments) says:

    I have always said polls this far out from the next election are meaningless.
    However I would predict that future polls at least for the next few months and providing Cunliffe doesn’t say anything stupid will show National losing ground to Labour/Greens.

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  95. Steve Taylor (211 comments) says:

    Hi Muggins: Cunnliffe indeed notwithstanding – I agree.

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