Under new management

September 8th, 2013 at 6:24 am by David Farrar

declared last night that is now under new management and open for business. The Coalition have won with one of the largest margins in recent times – yet no a total bloodbath.

The latest ABC projection is Coalition 89 (+10), Labor 51 (-10), Greens 1 (nc), Independents 2 (-2). That is just below the 1996 result for Howard where they got 94 seats.

By state it was like this:

  • ACT – Labor 2 (nc)
  • NSW – Libs 21 (+5), Nats 7 (+3), Labor 18 (-6), Independents 0 (-2)
  • NT – Country Libs 1 (nc), Labor 1 (nc)
  • Queensland – LNP 21 (nc), Labor 7 (-1), Palmer 1 (+1), Katter 1 (+1)
  • South Australia Libs 6 (+1), Lab 5 (-1)
  • Tasmania Libs 3 (+3), Labor 1 (-3), Ind 1 (nc)
  • Victoria Libs 15 (+3), Nats 2 (nc), Labor 19 (-3), Greens 1 (nc)
  • WA – Libs 12 (+1), Nats 0 (-1), Labor 3 (nc)

Still a dozen seats in play so these may change.

The primary vote has been Coalition 45.3% (+1.6%), Labor 33.8% (-4.1%), Greens 8.4% (-3.3%), Palmer United 5.6% (+5.6%), Family First 1.3% (-0.9%), Katter 1.0% (+0.7%).

Kevin Rudd’s concession speech was terrible. Long, rambling, resembling a victory speech, all about him and disgracefully not once did he mention Julia Gillard. He talked as if he had been Prime Minister for the last three years. He retained his seat but announced he will not contest the Labor Party leadership. More than one person quipped how they had heard him say that before! But finally it looks like he is gone. I’d say Bill Shorten is the likely new leader, but time will tell.

Time will also tell how Tony Abbott will do. A prediction that one day Abbott will be PM in 2007 would have seen you laughed out of the room. He has run a disciplined campaign and team over the last four or so years. However it was very much a rejection of Labor than an endorsement of Abbott. They have a large enough majority that I’d expect they’ll serve at least two terms.

The tight preferencing between minor parties appears to have delivered them a lot of Senate seats, so that will be a major challenge for the Abbott Government.

Also Clive Palmer has got elected to the House. He appears to be stark raving mad, so that also adds an unpredictable factor.

Tags: , ,

24 Responses to “Under new management”

  1. Ian McK (237 comments) says:

    Notice Fairfax and APN have hardly mentioned this thumping . . . seems Fairfax Aus are semi decent. They berated the lefties, and showed them no respite. Must dump all the losers from the company here.

    Vote: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  2. UpandComer (528 comments) says:

    Rudd’s speech was just awful. Interminable, self-satisfying, trite, spiteful, woefully off-tone in it’s weird grandiosity and jingoism, and absolutely ego-centric. It was disgraceful that he didn’t mention Julia. We were all sitting there waiting to tuck into our curry and send the pompous little tweed off into the sunset with his poor wife and son, and his speech just went on, and on, and on, and on. I thought he was going to start talking about how he won the top mark in high school for social studies or something. Labour got very lucky actually. It should have been worse for them after their spectacular achievements of turning unprecedented bull economic conditions into a bear. Still, a good night. Only NZ Labour could make Aus Labour look worse. NZ Labour is constrained only by the relatively small size of NZ’s economy and unions compared to Australias. They would be even worse then Aus Labour, as bad as this bunch have been and are.

    Vote: Thumb up 17 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  3. duggledog (1,491 comments) says:

    Challenging times ahead for Abbott’s administration, picking up the pieces after ALP’s spent all the money with nothing to show for it.

    He’ll no doubt be talking to Key who was after all in the same position post Clark & Cullen

    Vote: Thumb up 14 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  4. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    concession speech was terrible. Long, rambling, resembling a victory speech, all about him and disgracefully not once did he mention Julia Gillard. He talked as if he had been Prime Minister for the last three years.

    And why would you have expected anything different from this walking ego?

    He is a truly horrible man.

    And the NZLP are going to be led by a clone, whoop whoop.

    And the beltway darling Grant is toast as well, Labour honestly think that the conservative South Auckland voter who is the back bone of their constituency are going to vote for a gay man. Just proves that they treat their voters with distain because they know nothing about them. Labour the gift that keeps on giving.

    Popular. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 21 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  5. Fox (204 comments) says:

    The latest projections have the Coalition on 91 seats vs 54 for Labor. By all measures a resounding victory.

    The big problem for the Coalition however is that they won’t have a majority in the Senate which does put a bit of a dampner on things.

    As a result it’s going to be a real struggle for them to implement some of their major policies, and in particular the scrapping of the Carbon Tax.
    Ultimately these struggles could well lead to a double-dissolution and new elections within the next year.

    So still plenty of interesting times ahead.

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  6. Ian McK (237 comments) says:

    Would commenters please stop misusing the adjective “Gay”. These people are homosexuals, lesbians, weirdos . . . definitely not “Gay”.

    Vote: Thumb up 12 Thumb down 7 You need to be logged in to vote
  7. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,824 comments) says:

    What a treat we’ve had. First Gillard gets destroyed, then Rudd. 2013 has been quite a year.

    Vote: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  8. Redbaiter (8,255 comments) says:

    Good to see a straight Christian Conservative family man elected to PM in Australia.

    Vote: Thumb up 18 Thumb down 3 You need to be logged in to vote
  9. Harriet (4,758 comments) says:

    “…..A prediction that one day Abbott will be PM in 2007 would have seen you laughed out of the room….”

    He lost the last election and his team have stuck with him – that says something for an opposition leader. It says something about the character of Abbott.

    He’s from inside the beltway and from outside it, and is well liked by both, he’ll grow on the public as PM.

    The senate will be workable with Palmers Lazzeras and Xeno.

    He’ll make a great PM.

    Vote: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  10. Harriet (4,758 comments) says:

    Labor suffered it’s lowest vote in more than 100yrs. :cool:

    Vote: Thumb up 15 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  11. OneTrack (2,966 comments) says:

    “Just proves that they treat their voters with distain because they know nothing about them. ”

    It’s not that they know nothing about them, it is the just don’t care what they really think. As long as they can bribe them and get them to vote for them, that’s all that matters.

    Vote: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  12. Ross12 (1,373 comments) says:

    The ALP were saying early in the evening they lost because of disunity in the party but they had performed well in Government and achieved alot !! Well it is no wonder they got trashed if that is what they believe. ( NB. I flicked onto CNN at one stage and the ALP/MSM even had the Americans convinced it was only because of disunity).
    The pundits certainly had Clive Palmer all wrong.

    Harriet –who do you think Palmer took votes from, mainly.

    Vote: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  13. Fletch (6,234 comments) says:

    Perhaps he’ll dump the climate change tax – hopefully.
    We should as well.

    Climate change tax is about as pointless as taking your trousers off to fart.

    Vote: Thumb up 12 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  14. hj (6,802 comments) says:

    Labor suffered it’s lowest vote in more than 100yrs.
    ………………………..
    I see Bryce Edwards on 360. If anyone epitomises Labours problems it is him. Calling Shearers plans to control foreign buyers “xenophobic” and hosting John Moore on his site (for example):

    “Both in New Zealand and globally, the best of the leftwing tradition has always rejected small-minded nationalism, xenophobia and racism. In fact, leftists of an internationalist tradition have always favoured globalization and getting rid of national borders and barriers to migration. Progressive advocates of globalization of course do not defend a handful of rich imperialist countries, including New Zealand, dominating the world’s economy, but instead advocate an integrated and radically egalitarian world economy where production is based on social need and not on private profit. ”
    http://liberation.typepad.com/liberation/2012/02/guest-blog-post-john-moore-leftwing-xenophobia-in-new-zealand.html

    Good to see the Greens did badly supporting open borders.

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  15. tvb (4,313 comments) says:

    Labor’s defeat was largely self inflicted. They had a reasonable story to tell but Rudd virtually ignored it during the campaign. It does say one thing disunity is death. Chose your leader carefully and then back them through thick and thin. Getting a sugar lift in the polls and then trying to capitalise on it does not work.

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  16. thor42 (971 comments) says:

    @Fletch – “Climate change tax is about as pointless as taking your trousers off to fart.”

    That gets my vote for quote of the day….. :)

    Vote: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  17. OneTrack (2,966 comments) says:

    He – “but instead advocate an integrated and radically egalitarian world economy where production is based on social need”

    Can someone explain what the hell this means? Does it mean that, because they need jobs in Timbuktu, that the World Council will designate that all 21″ computer monitors will be made in Timbuktu?

    Vote: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  18. kiwi in america (2,495 comments) says:

    Ross12
    In their minds the left never loses because of bad policy – only external factors like an inarticulate leader, adverse economic conditions, the media (haha) and disunity. NZ Labour are going though the same delusion right now – they got rid of Shearer for being a poor messenger not for having a poor message. The leadership contenders are contorting themselves through hoops to be the face of the same (and more) bad policies.

    Rudd is an odious prat – and a wit over at Whaleoil said that Cunliffe has all of Rudd’s negative qualities with none of his redeeming features!

    Vote: Thumb up 12 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  19. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,873 comments) says:

    David, why do you you go to a den of unreconstructed lefties for your prediction?

    The Australian has it at Coalition 91, Labor 54. That’s much more like a good old blood bath.

    NZ Labour needs to note well the rewards for constantly attacking and demonising a person who so obviously is a decent bloke

    Vote: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  20. Lindsay Addie (1,321 comments) says:

    A question for any serious political history buffs.

    Is K. Rudd the only leader of a major political in the history of democracy who gave what sounded mighty like a victory speech when as noted by a correspondent above his party got the lowest share of the vote in a century?

    Also it didn’t seemed to have dawned on Mrs Rudd either that her arrogant hubby got a spanking from the voters.

    On Skynews Bob Hawke didn’t sound or look impressed at either the speech or the reception it got from the party faithful.

    Vote: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  21. kiwi in america (2,495 comments) says:

    Say what you like about Mitt Romney but he set a new high standard for concession speeches – Kevin Rudd did the opposite. No wonder his colleagues hated him.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  22. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    Redbaiter (4,582) Says:

    September 8th, 2013 at 8:54 am
    Good to see a straight Christian Conservative family man elected to PM in Australia.

    But his missus is from Wainuiomata and the depths of sexual deviancy chicks from Wainui will go to have no end . Also his sister is gay so watch out he could come over all homo at any stage, its obviously in the bloodline

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 3 You need to be logged in to vote
  23. Anthony (789 comments) says:

    LA, what about Mike Moore’s speech in 1990?

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  24. mikemikemikemike (323 comments) says:

    Redbaiter (4,582) Says:

    September 8th, 2013 at 8:54 am
    Good to see a straight Christian Conservative family man elected to PM in Australia.

    I thought he was Catholic?

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.