New poll average

October 29th, 2013 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

curiappa

 

This is updated to take account of the Roy Morgan , One News Colmar Brunton poll and Fairfax Ipsos poll. So basically 61 seats for the centre-right, 60 seats for centre-left and Maori Party would hold balance of power.

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35 Responses to “New poll average”

  1. Colville (2,079 comments) says:

    Looks to me like Colin Craig would hold the balance of power!

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  2. gazzmaniac (2,317 comments) says:

    Sounds like a disaster actually. This is why MMP sucks balls.

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  3. Pete George (22,804 comments) says:

    It’s worth noting that on Frontline in the weekend Peter Dunne confirmed he will stand again next election. He should be competitive in Ohariu, and National may need all the coalition help it can get, but there’s no sign yet that UF will manage to do anything beyond that.

    http://www.frontpage.co.nz/stories.php?storyid=363

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  4. New Kiwi (7 comments) says:

    Starting to think that these projections should stop counting one for ACT.

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  5. Judith (7,591 comments) says:

    What a nightmare!

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  6. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    The greens will not poll any where like that on election day –

    One year to the election people , its only the unemployed who have started electioneering already because they have nothing else to do, the Government is Govermenting and doing a pretty good job.

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  7. GJKiwi (179 comments) says:

    gazz: tut, tut! Just because baby doesn’t get his own way. MMP has proved remarkably stable, when all said and done. Only 3 Governments in the last 17 years, pretty good really, and much wider representation.

    Colville: you mean to think that Colin Craig might win a seat? mmm, don’t know. And that is presuming of course that the Maori Party are re-elected. Has anybody been doing any polling on the Maori Electorates lately? Quite a few assumptions really. ACT getting re-elected in Epsom, and United Future getting a seat, which Peter Dunne only just scraped in on last time.

    Pete George: he was only just successful last time. However, little by little, the splinter parties, i.e. ACT, UF amongst others will disappear. Peter Dunne won’t be around forever, and then the seat will go to either Labour or National. The voters of Ohariu understand the overhand principle, as do Maori and the voters of Epsom, so it might be a while. However, it certainly won’t be forever, and ACT will quite likely be the first to go.

    New Kiwi: indeed. :)

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  8. CameronFoxton (27 comments) says:

    Im assuming two seats for Maori Party is safe bet, Flavell in his electorate and if they don’t retain another seat the party vote % should get in one list MP.
    As for ACT and UF I don’t know and I don’t care, I’m bored of those two and the endless drama and bowties. I would find a Colin Craig vs. Winston undercard in the election campaign way more interesting.

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  9. Kea (11,878 comments) says:

    Wow Red’s “spearhead” has gone up 30% to 1%. I bet those massed ranks of progs are shaking in their boots ! :)

    I am just the vanguard of a political movement that is going to wipe Progressives off the face of the earth. They’ll disappear like the Dodo birds did.

    I am spearheading a force that will grow from hundreds to thousands to millions and you will be gone.

    Redbaiter KB 2013

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  10. Pete George (22,804 comments) says:

    GJKiwi – Dunne put a lot into Ohariu last election (at the cost of party campaigning) and ended up with a reasonable 1400 vote majority. This time much will depend on who Labour stand against him now Chauvel is gone, and whether National leave a numpty there or not. Act looking so shaky mean there’s more chance of help from National. But you’re right, Dunne won’t be around forever and if he manages to stay in next year I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s his last term.

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  11. Manolo (13,357 comments) says:

    … 61 seats for the centre-right, 60 seats for centre-left and Maori Party would hold balance of power.>

    And the racists will choose the bidder that pays the highest koha.

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  12. Manolo (13,357 comments) says:

    But you’re right, Dunne won’t be around forever…

    Don’t be modest, mate. There is always a P.G. waiting in the wings!

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  13. Colville (2,079 comments) says:

    GJKiwi
    Craigs role will be interesting.
    To keep WinstonFirst below the 5% mark and also the possibility of a new electorate being created around Craigs hometown.
    Cant see CCCP getting below 3% so 4 MPs IF they win a seat.
    I would rather see Craig in than Banks back if I had to choose.

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  14. Pete George (22,804 comments) says:

    Manolo – if UF is to survive it needs someone quite different to me, there’s an opportunity for a new generation of political opportunists.

    And ACT needs someone quite different to John Banks if they are to survive next year.

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  15. dime (9,424 comments) says:

    “So basically 61 seats for the centre-right, 60 seats for centre-left and White People Party would hold balance of power.”

    Reckon the UN would jump all over that shit?

    The Maori party cant wait to jump ship at the first chance they get.

    Labour have shown how good they are at negotiating “ill give you 700 million for that 200 million dollar train set”.

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  16. BlueSilver (22 comments) says:

    Millions spent by CCCP and only 1% to show for it. Here’s hoping we get to elect a National Party electorate MP in Upper Harbour.

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  17. edhunter (495 comments) says:

    On the whole & while still adamant that there is no place for race based seats in a MMP parliament, I think it’s been beneficial for both the Maori & National Party to have been in successful govt together for the past 6yrs.
    It shows that the National Party aren’t the evil whitemans party the left would lead you to believe & it also shows you can achieve a lot more for your people if your actually in govt & not a permanent fixture on the opposition bench like the gweens, almost 20yrs in parliament & sweet fuck all to show for it.

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  18. Matthew Percival (16 comments) says:

    Looks to me like Cunliffe needs to do a deal with NZ First and arrange a safe seat for Winston to contest unopposed by Labour.

    That 3.5% NZ First vote is too high for Cunliffe to waste.

    Of course I hope they don’t but it has to be considered a strong possibility, especially if NZ First is polling 3-4% close to election day.

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  19. queenstfarmer (746 comments) says:

    Looks to me like Cunliffe needs to do a deal with NZ First and arrange a safe seat for Winston to contest unopposed by Labour.

    Oh I’d love to see Labour do that after the faux-outrage they made about National’s deal with ACT in Epsom.

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  20. Alan (1,062 comments) says:

    The demise of the Maori party is of course a very bad thing for Labour. They could be 7 brown Epsoms, where people spilt their vote, Labour for party vote and Maori Party / Mana for MP. Labour scoped the party vote in all 7 last time round.

    In fact if Labour had lost Te Tai Tonga last time round, it would have added another overhang MP and removed John Keys ability to govern without the Maori Party and the numbers for asset sales. Who knows, perhaps Phil Goff could have struck a deal to govern, with an extra Maori Party MP the numbers would have been there.

    That was a very expensive win for Labour.

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  21. iMP (2,236 comments) says:

    If Consvs could manage 2.5% of the party vote in 2011 after being up and running just two months, what is three years and 5800 members since, worth?

    Add to that the new Auckl. seat in CC’s patch, and the Consv. Auckl. team swinging in behind CCraig, where 50,000 locals have already voted for a Consv. candidate in local body politics, I’d say the choice between Winston First and Conservatives is already decided. Winnie will be 73 at the end of the next parliament.

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  22. Manolo (13,357 comments) says:

    Winnie will be 73 at the end of the next parliament.

    Unfortunately it doesn’t matter. The venal Peters wants to continue sucking from the public teat and enjoying political power.

    The crook is bound to carry on the NZF farce until the day he dies.

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  23. Alan (1,062 comments) says:

    “If Consvs could manage 2.5% of the party vote in 2011 after being up and running just two months, what is three years and 5800 members since, worth? ”

    Another way to look at it is this, the Conservative Party outspent Labour in 2011 and only got 2.5%; It’s not like people weren’t exposed to the message.

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  24. bringbackdemocracy (393 comments) says:

    Alan the Conservatives only outspent Labour with private funds. When you include tax-payer funding, Labour’s spending was much higher.

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  25. gravedodger (1,514 comments) says:

    @ Matt Percival 3 49, I dont think so it would more than likely hand it to the fucking melons.

    A fact that wouldnt really change things just bolster the XXXX wet back and the fat fashion horse in their wet dreams.

    A significant majority of the demented souls who follow the pin striped dwarf are center right voters who are in awe of the muldoonost charlatan.
    They still think he is relevant, alas.

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  26. Alan (1,062 comments) says:

    Maybe a little, but it doesn’t address my fundamental point; the NZCP spent large last time, everyone got their material and knew who they were.

    They’ve had 3 years, during this time they’ve went backwards in the public estimation. Every time Colin Craig appears on TV he alienates people. Look, I’d love to see a properly free market, conservative political force in NZ, I really would.

    Colin Craig isn’t the guy to do it though.

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  27. Steve Taylor (205 comments) says:

    Hi Alan,

    I am wondering if the assumption you may be making is that Colin Craig IS the Conservative Party, the way that Peter Dunne IS United Future, and Winston Peters IS New Zealand First.

    Colin Craig is one of a reported 5300 members. The membership now has the capacity to outspend Colin Craig via their own contributions to the Party.

    Goodness me, just $10.00 a month from each member would raise $53,000.00 per month, or $636,000.00 over the next year; at $20.00 a month, it would be over 1.2 million in the same period. The Party collective would thus seemingly have quite a significant ability to fund an Election itself, even if Colin Craig didn’t spend another cent.

    Colin Craig kicked this thing off mightily, however in my observation at least, those that assume that the Conservative Party will survive being bank-rolled by any one individual are forgetting the other 5299 individuals, many of them small – medium business owners who can contribute a whole heck of a lot more than $20.00 per month.

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  28. Steve Taylor (205 comments) says:

    Just a note on small – medium businesses and the attraction they appear to have for the Conservative Party – they are a significant constituency: http://www.med.govt.nz/business/business-growth-internationalisation/pdf-docs-library/small-and-medium-sized-enterprises/Small-business-stats-factsheet.pdf

    As a small business owner myself, I’m struggling to remember a political champion for this constituency.

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  29. Colville (2,079 comments) says:

    Alan.

    I am not now nor will I ever be a CCCP voter.

    However it seems that they got near 3% last time round starting from a zero baseline in around 10 weeks.
    That (to me) is impressive and shows that they do have a place in NZ.
    My hope for the CCCP would be that they whiteant both Winstons support and steal more than a few conservitive voters from Labour out of South Auckland.

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  30. Steve Taylor (205 comments) says:

    Hi Alan,

    According to the Electoral Commission website, the formal name of the Conservative Party is the “Conservative Party of New Zealand” http://www.elections.org.nz/parties-candidates/registered-political-parties-0/register-political-parties.

    So the acronym should read CPNZ, should it not?

    Again, it looks as if the Conservative Party has now outgrown its founder, which I suspect was the founders goal from the beginning.

    However, to each their own, I guess.

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  31. lolitasbrother (478 comments) says:

    I’m not sure where ACT’s one seat comes from

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  32. Steve Taylor (205 comments) says:

    Alan, the philosophy and thinking of Conservatism does not sit in any one area of the Political spectrum: http://www.kirkcenter.org/index.php/detail/ten-conservative-principles/ so any votes for the Conservatives, in line with what is reported to be a broad-based Party membership, could well come from left, right, centre, or even the (previously) non-voting population.

    For what it is worth, given the Conservative Party firstly attracted around 65,000 votes in the last election nationwide, and then 50,000 local body votes just in Auckland alone a few weeks back, I am picking that the Conservative Party will make the 5% threshold with some considerable ease, and most likely have an Electoral seat to boot.

    Rounding out the numbers, 7% of the Party Vote plus 1 Electorate seat would equal around 9 Conservative Party MPs.

    I still remember the United Future romp in 2005: they polled something like 1% or so leading up to the Election, and then reached nearly 7 % and “hello 8 MP’s” in a matter of a few weeks from Election date.

    To put it somewhat inelegantly, Craig has never struck me as being anyone’s lap-dog, so it occurs to me that if any major party is thinking of dealing with the Conservative Party, they will most likely need to learn to treat Craig with some personal dignity and respect.

    “Always make sure your words are sweet and tender – for one day, you may have to eat them” could well be a wise mantra for all concerned.

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  33. Steve Taylor (205 comments) says:

    Sorry, it was the 2002 Election that United Future romped in with 9 MPs: http://www.parliament.nz/resource/0000000227

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  34. s.russell (1,563 comments) says:

    Yes indeed, UF suddenly surged to 6.7% (or thereabouts) in 2002. But by 05 the bubble had well and truly burst. It occurred because at that time (02) lots of people were looking for a non-left alternative to National which had seriously uninspired people. Ie context. The CPNZ got 2.8% in 2011. Another amazing surge from nowhere. But again, it came from context – the belief National was going to romp home and the desire to make a point without risk. The context in 2014 will be different. The CPNZ bubble could burst as spectacularly as the UF one.

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  35. Steve Taylor (205 comments) says:

    I think UFNZ’s biggest error was working to garner support from a constituency that the Leader of the Party actually had no real interest in representing – this ambivalence certainly became clear in 2005 – that, and entering a Confidence & Supply agreement with Labour, and then pretending the reason for on-going political complicity was “stable Govt” – UFNZ and its MP’s unceremoniously abandoned its supporters – and UFNZ got unceremoniously “spanked” for doing so.

    It would seem that Colin Craig’s backbone is made of much sterner stuff than Peter Dunne’s – no “deals with the devil” this time around, so to speak.

    The context for 2014 could well be Nationals absence of choice for a support partner, a fact not lost on the political left, who seem spoiled for choice.

    For my money, the smart option would be for CPNZ not to enter into any “agreement” with anyone, and simply vote issue by issue – the Green Party have managed to survive for so long precisely because they don’t enter into coalition-type agreements.

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