Boundaries and polling places

November 28th, 2013 at 1:00 pm by David Farrar

The Herald has a nifty feature where you can view the current and/or proposed and where polling places are, and whether they voted National or Labour (or Greens). They report:

The Kelston electorate is expected to be safe for Labour but its creation could pose problems for the party in the neighbouring electorates of New Lynn, Te Atatu and Mt Albert.

Labour MP Phil Goff concedes the proposed boundary changes will mean he will compete for a drastically different Mt Roskill that has gained strong National-leaning polling places from Maungakiekie, in turn making it tougher for National’s Sam Lotu-Iiga to retain his seat.

The Herald “mashup” of the proposed electoral boundaries combined with the party votes at 2650 polling places from the 2011 election reveals a reshaped political landscape.

The proposed Upper Harbour electorate is strongly National overall, with a few polling stations on the southern boundaries that could be considered marginal for either of the main parties.

Most of the polling places in Kelston – which would replace Waitakere, currently held by National’s Paula Bennett – are strongly Labour-leaning. These polling places were formerly inside the New Lynn, Te Atatu and Mt Albert boundaries. Consequently, the three electorates end up with more evenly split voting patterns, when earlier they were more favourable to Labour.

Te Atatu, currently held by Labour’s Phil Twyford, loses a moderately Labour-leaning polling place and adds a strong National-leaning one. Auckland Central loses polling places that are either marginal or Labour-leaning.

Another big change is in the Mt Roskill electorate, which loses a number of Labour-leaning polling places to gain strong National-leaning ones.

A crude calculation based on party votes within the proposed new Mt Roskill electorate shows National with a majority of about 1500 over Labour. However, this only takes into account the party vote and only indicates that Phil Goff – who has held the seat since 1999 – will have a closer fight on hand.

Goff would be heard to beat. But a strong fresh candidate who campaigns on time for a change, could do well.

3 Responses to “Boundaries and polling places”

  1. Paulus (3,569 comments) says:

    Understand the likely hood of Phil Goff standing for Parliament are slim, as believe that he can see the writing on the wall for his political future.
    He does not represent the incoming Labour factions any more, and can see the likely possibility of staying in opposition grow. Even if Labour/Greens get into power he will be overlooked for any meaning full job.
    In many ways he has been a good Parliamentarian and has performed to the best of his ability, particularly in Foreign Affair matters.

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  2. Hamish_NZ (46 comments) says:

    It shows most not all polling places. But none the less is interesting to see it as an info graphic rather than the boring old numbers. Far more interesting this way. The electoral commission should do this as well as the strict figures after each election, of course not showing those booths where less than 50 votes wede cast to maintain confidentiality of votes.

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  3. Dazzaman (1,184 comments) says:

    I see I’ll be voting in the Rangitikei electorate now…..utterly ridiculous.

    The Rangitikei electorate is a massive area with which my community has little affiliation with the bulk of, certainly not those too far north of Palmerston North. We have always had an alignment with the Horowhenua district first, being our rating area since time immemorial, then the wider Manawatu &, less so, Kapiti in the south.

    A little senseless to split historically affiliated regions & rating areas between electorates just for the sake of electoral population equality. It makes more sense to split the vast & sparsely populate Rangitikei electorate up amongst the several neighbouring electorates.

    Provincialism is alive & well here in the Shannon/Tokomaru/Opiki area. Feeling like a Kurd in Iraq right now!

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