Doocey responds to Cunliffe

November 11th, 2013 at 4:00 pm by David Farrar

doocey

 

, National’s candidate, responds to ’s suggestion he won’t stay in Christchurch. An unwise accusation to make when your own candidate has been in Christchurch for less than six months!

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21 Responses to “Doocey responds to Cunliffe”

  1. gazzmaniac (2,319 comments) says:

    If Dooley wins, does that make him the first candidate for a government to win a seat off the opposition in a by election?

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  2. calendar girl (1,203 comments) says:

    Before people get carried away with the prospect of National winning Christchurch East, are there any Electorate polling figures out there yet?

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  3. 103PapPap (130 comments) says:

    It’s a pity Doocey didn’t go a bit stronger on his criticism of the Labour nominee – he should have also pointed out that the man ban eliminated a strong Labour nominee with an excellent Labour heritage – David Caygill’s son James.

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  4. iMP (2,345 comments) says:

    It was interesting to see Chch’s new “Neutral I Am Not A Labour MP Mayor” endorse the Lab. candidate over others in a half page hagiography on Lab. Party Letterhead, endorsed by the Lab. Gen. Sec., complete with mayoral photo on personalised letters to all voters in Chch East mailed out from Wellington.

    Neutral (TUI).

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  5. iMP (2,345 comments) says:

    National’s Chair for Canterbury/Westland saying in the media that National was not going to win in Chch East, was a bit of a doocey. OUCH!. Reminds me of when Bolger pulled the rug on Mark Thomas in Mana.

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  6. Pongo (371 comments) says:

    Couple more visits from Key would just about win it (I am in the electorate) for national. There has been quite a change in attitude since Cunliffe got elected, people who generally don’t give a shit about politics are all of a sudden getting bloody worried and talking about the scary prospect of labour winning government.
    I guess people see Cunliffes lurch to the left and Helen Kelly’s absolute delight and it scares the shit out of them and what was the fool thinking in proposing a government owned insurer in quake ravaged Christchurch ! We can see how much cash is being spent here and are pretty pleased a lot of it is coming from overseas or we would be doubly buggared, and seriously Cunliffe from the leafy suburbs of Herne Bay the news that EQC is f…ing hopeless why would you want to inflict another government run institution on us. Bad enough that kiwi bank makes absolutely NO money while the Aussie banks manage to squeeze out 3 billion in profits and don’t have rent free branches to work out of.

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  7. kiwi in america (2,486 comments) says:

    I think the likelihood of a National win in Chch East is slim to none. The following factors need to be borne in mind:
    * Since the beginning of the 2 party era in the 1930′s, no incumbent government has ever won a seat off an Opposition party in a by-election
    * National was not only polling strongly nationwide in 2011, it was polling even more strongly in Christchurch in the immediate aftermath of the earthquakes hence Labour lost not only the party vote in Chch East but also lost neighbouring Chch Central – a long time safe Labour seat. The narrow National win in Chch Central can be put down to Nicky Wagner being sowell known locally and foughting a long tough campaign against a new candidate for Labour replacing long time incumbent MP Tim Barnett plus boundary changes and more infill higher value town homes had been eroding Barnett’s majority over the previous 2 elections before 2011.
    * Whilst Chch East has lost several thousand constituents, not all of the voters displaced from the residential red zone and other red zoned properties are Labour voters
    * Dalziel was a relatively popular local MP whose mana has risen since winning the mayoralty and she will be helping out as much as possible.
    * The ongoing wrangles with EQC and insurers, the slowish pace of the infrastructure rebuild in the east and general weariness of Christchurch residents now that they are 3 years on from the first big quake has dented the government’s popularity in the east
    * Labour is broke and so it compensated for its empty campaign coffers by holding its conference in Chch so that it could use all the activists from all over the country travelling on their own dime to do foot soldier work like canvassing that the membership strapped party in Chch East could never do. This gave the impression that Labour was possibly spooked by the prospect of losing the seat when really it was more their wise use of limited resources
    * Whaleoil I think has been a bit mischievous in alluding to bad internal Labour polling in Chch East – given the parlous state of Labour’s finances I very much doubt there has been any scientific polling outside of their canvassing efforts.

    I would very much love to be pleasantly surprised and Cunliffe’s stupid comments about Doocey are another example of his politics all day every day backfiring.

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  8. iMP (2,345 comments) says:

    Some political soccer in Chch East, here’s my score card.
    http://conzervative.wordpress.com/2013/11/11/political-soccer-in-christchurch-east/

    Interesting to note Greens did not put up Mojo Mathers in her own seat? Do they not rate her?

    This by~ is effectively a double-billling: National vs Labour and Conservatives vs Greens. The only repeat candidate is the Consv.’s Leighton Baker. stood in 2011.

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  9. iMP (2,345 comments) says:

    Kiwi in America, you are wrong about Chch Central. Nicky won the seat with less votes than she lost with in 2008. National won Chch Central only because of the massive SE displacement of Lab. voters, which was Lab. territory in the electorate. National’s NW areas were relatively unscathed. All Lab.s booths were wiped out and Brendan Burns perhaps the most unlucky Lab. MP ever.

    I door-knocked for Nicky, but really it was demographics and earthquakes that decided the result, not the candidates.

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  10. iMP (2,345 comments) says:

    National is also on the fag end of:

    1. Perceptions of Central Govt. intrusion into Canterbury
    2. the ECan democracy/Commissioners issue
    3. the school amalgamations and closures in the East
    4. the loss in Court over the Philipstown schools.
    5. The AAron Gilmore debacle

    Labour is on the back foot, that Poto is an Auckl. ring-in, but Labour does that all the time, and it has rarely hurt them. national’s Doocey has just arrived from abroad, so its perhaps neutralised.

    Neither Lab. or National have much of a team out East. I would be most surprised if National won. It’ll be a comfortable Labour win if the Chch mayoralty and Councillors results are anything to go by.

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  11. bringbackdemocracy (416 comments) says:

    NZ First have two Christchurch based MPs out of a seven member caucus. But in the by-election they are missing in action.
    Obviously no baubles to be gained. Maybe NZ First have lost their mojo as well?

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  12. Keeping Stock (10,185 comments) says:

    The odds are certainly stacked against Matthew Doocey, but he has the advantage of being a local, NOT being Aaron Gilmore, and the party vote figure which favoured National so strongly in 2011. Clearly Lianne Dalziel had a strong personal following; whether that will translate into support for a candidate who has only lived in the city since early this year (and must now be suspected of being a Quota Management System candidate) remains to be seen.

    But what a blow it would be to Cunliffe if Doocey even halved Labour’s majority :D

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  13. thedavincimode (6,591 comments) says:

    Cunners is proving to be more accident-prone than Goofy. This will no doubt inspire his colleagues. I wonder what he eventually holds up in Parliament. Somebody tell him that snapper has already been done.

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  14. PaulL (5,986 comments) says:

    @Keeping Stock – it would certainly be amusing if the voters decided to register a protest vote over Labour’s quota system foisting this candidate on them instead of a protest vote against the government. That would cause some real ructions in caucus…

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  15. thedavincimode (6,591 comments) says:

    what a blow it would be to Cunliffe if Doocey even halved Labour’s majority

    Stop talking dirty KS. Despite what the Redbattlestar says, I’m not.

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  16. Pongo (371 comments) says:

    I got my Poto pamphlet in the post, basically it was Hi I am standing for election here is a photo of Dalziel and something a PR person has given her to sign about how wonderful I am, please vote for me. Buggar off back to Auckland and take your quota system with you.
    National have a story to tell and a reasonably good one in pretty shitty circumstances. Be good to see Key, Joyce, English and even big Gerry put a bit of effort in locally, the prize would be not only their one seat majority but it would fatally undermine Cunliffe.

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  17. RF (1,349 comments) says:

    Labour are looking at a major fail in Christchurch East with the silent T making some real stupid comments about the National candidate. I suspect that his lady in waiting miss Mickey Savage has provided him the incorrect advice.

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  18. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    Somebody tell him that snapper has already been done.

    Puffer fish I think would suit Walter Mitty aka Silent T. full of air and water, poisonous and is a prick on the outside. Covers it I reckon

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  19. David in Chch (512 comments) says:

    Strange! Didn’t anyone tell Cunliffe that he was in a glass house before he started throwing stones?

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  20. kiwi in america (2,486 comments) says:

    iMP
    Thanks for the heads up and detail. I read your blog piece on political soccer. I also looked at the booth by booth results in Chch Central 2011 v 2008 and you are absolutely right. I know Tim Barnett well from my days in Labour and always felt that he was an awkward fit in what was a working class mostly white Labour seat due to his being a gay policy wonk type from England. Those factors added to the infill of higher value townhouses and apartments in St Albans and inside the 4 Avenues displacing Labour voters with younger more upwardly mobile likely National voters all helped to erode his majority. Brendan Burns was unlucky as the 2011 election was held almost at the post earthquake population nadir before various families who had fled had begun to return.

    As for Dalziel reneging on her neutrality claim, what were you expecting? She won the mayoralty easily (limited experienced competition helped) and by the time she faces re-election in 2016, this will be long forgotten. Labour are fully aware of the disastrous impact a loss or a narrow win will have on their 2014 General election preparations so they are using every non financial lever available to them due to their being so broke. Flattering pro Labour coverage is almost a given from The Press. It’s great that Doocey is putting up a fight but the best National can hope for is a Fafoi/Mana by election type result that shakes Labour up and gives Cunliffe a real fright and erodes his political clout and momentum (something that is already happening).

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  21. ManuT (45 comments) says:

    Good luck to Doocey; glad you are having a real crack at the bye election.
    I am very disappointed in Dalziel but not surprised; dishonesty runs rampant throughout Labour and their following.
    Once a swinging voter I am now firmly in the National camp because I feel confident the Nats know what they are doing and are transparent about it.

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