Garner on Key

November 12th, 2013 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

writes:

National is celebrating five years in Government and can be pretty pleased with his efforts.

Five years on and, if you look at the rolling poll of polls, National sits at around 48% and Labour 33%. Though that masks how close any MMP election would be; add the Greens to Labour and it’s much, much closer.

A single percentage point will probably decide the next election. The Prime Minister is well aware of that. He can count. It’s why Key is now openly talking about Colin Craig and the Conservatives as a potential coalition partner.

Key prefers Craig to Winston Peters. I’m not surprised. I think National will offer Craig some electoral deal to get him over the line. National will help the Conservatives win a seat so its 2-3% vote is not wasted. Craig could bring with him 3-5 MPs, which could be the difference.

Is it impossible the conservatives make 5%? They got 2.8% last time with relatively little publicity (but lots of advertising). If it looks like they will make it over the line, they may pick up some support from those who were worried a vote for them would be wasted.

John Key has ruled out Winston Peters in the past – my feeling is he will probably do something similar again, early next year, but the decision is yet to be made. Key will, in my view, lay out who his preferred coalition partners are – he will list Peters and New Zealand First last – he may go the next step and tell Kiwis he won’t work with him. On principle – if Key is highly principled on Peters – he will stick to his previous stance and rule him out.

It will be interesting to see what he does.

Key was far from radical. He is a centrist that loves capitalism, but not pure capitalism. He understands when it doesn’t work and when it’s hurting people. He understands business and banking, and he is close to the country’s top business leaders and bank CEOs. They wish he was more right wing and aggressive on the business front. That he’s not shows he knows where the votes are.

But Key’s trick is this: He knows he must remain firmly in the centre of NZ life and politics to remain in office. He has done that pretty well, in my view. His opponents have consistently under-estimated him. He is much smarter than they give him credit for and he can come across as very ordinary at times.

The list of those who have under-estimated him is a very long one.

The good news is it looks like the economy is bouncing. This is the good part of the story that even Key’s opponents acknowledge, but usually in private.

Growth is expected to be 3.5 percent for the next two years. Some economists put it at four percent. Much of that is expected to come from Christchurch. Let’s hope it gets going sooner rather than later.

Unemployment is down to 6.2 percent. That is actually OK given the world’s collapse. Italy and Greece are on their knees and broke. Spain is the same. Australia and the US have nudged 10 percent unemployment.

Australia’s economic writers wax lyrical about the New Zealand economy and the management of it by Key and Bill English. In fact, more Kiwis are now heading home to NZ than leaving for Australia. The brain-drain trend has reversed.

And Duncan’s overall score:

So Key has had his challenges. Some of them have been monumental. He has, largely, negotiated them very well. He has made mistakes. He, at times, gets it wrong.

But he’s still high in the polls. Kiwis have largely trusted him to negotiate these tricky economic times.

I give him a 7.5 out of 10.

Your choice is between John Key and Bill English with a few rag-tag minor right wing parties – or David Cunliffe and Russel Norman – with perhaps Winston Peters in tow.

Who do you trust?

A good question.

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139 Responses to “Garner on Key”

  1. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    “But Key’s trick is this: He knows he must remain firmly in the centre of NZ life and politics to remain in office.”

    And what pray is the point of such a futile plan?

    If he cannot convey andy message, he might as well pack in in right now.

    Being popular is a complete waste of time if you don’t use that popularity to effect some change.

    That’s Key’s biggest flaw I think.

    He wants the popularity, but he isn’t interested in change.

    He hasn’t even tried to take NZ in a different direction. So we have a lot of dupes sucked in by his hail fellow well met act, but not realising he’s just leading them into a left wing ambush.

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  2. Urban Redneck (234 comments) says:

    Politically, Key is an empty suit.

    http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/newzealand

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  3. James Stephenson (2,152 comments) says:

    The Conservatives would have a better chance of getting over the line if there was more Conservative about them than the name and blue billboards.

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  4. dime (9,849 comments) says:

    “If it looks like they will make it over the line, they may pick up some support from those who were worried a vote for them would be wasted.”

    if craig looks set to win his seat, easily over 5% IMHO.

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  5. gazzmaniac (2,307 comments) says:

    Given that he’s likely to be contesting a seat with no incumbent, I think that he has a good chance.

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  6. PaulL (5,965 comments) says:

    @gazzmaniac: more so if he contests a seat where the wink and nudge have been given by National that they’re not expecting to win.

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  7. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    Is John Key the Worst PM National Have Ever Produced?

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  8. thedavincimode (6,691 comments) says:

    What if the Colly’s do get in with Key. Will El Guava survive another broken heart?

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  9. PaulL (5,965 comments) says:

    @RedBaiter: I don’t need to click on that link to know you’re wrong!! Yelling at voters from the sidelines is what the Republicans are doing, it doesn’t work because it lets the left hold the levers of power. The price of being in power is that you can’t do everything you want, but at least you can do something. In opposition you do nothing. Key is an enormously successful National leader, and I find it very unlikely that history will agree with you.

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  10. Harriet (4,848 comments) says:

    The Conservatives will get more than 10% because most National voters don’t believe in NZ public service exceptionalism.

    NZ like all other Western nations cannot afford a centrist public service behometh.

    The low birthrate no longer justifies large western governments. Immigration statistics doesn’t warrant it as they are nearly all adults.

    It’s that fiscaly simple.

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  11. smttc (740 comments) says:

    “He hasn’t even tried to take NZ in a different direction.”

    Tax cuts. Employment law changes. Kiwisaver changes. Partial Floats of SOEs. A multitude of Welfare reforms. Changes to the ETS. Three strikes (yes I know it’s ACT’s policy but National went along with it.)

    I could go on.

    Face it Reddy, you want revolution – not change.

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  12. RichardX (325 comments) says:

    There is a difference between a pragmatist and an ideologue
    Key is a pragmatist who lives in the real world and tries to get the best possible result in any given situation. Redbaiter is an ideologue who will only accept the single outcome he wants and if this is not achievable will continue to write anonymous rants until it is achievable.
    Note the relative impact each has had on NZ to decide the more effective method

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  13. RRM (9,826 comments) says:

    Go weddy! See if you can link whore your traffic up into double digits!

    Link whoring in the prog sewer – truly a man with two faces and no shame.

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  14. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    “Key is a pragmatist who lives in the real world and tries to get the best possible result in any given situation. ”

    I’m sure this is what he tells himself and all his empty headed supporters believe, but its just not the case.

    Key has no political idea. He just wants to be PM, and if he can be a better socialist than Cunliffe, he’s as happy as Larry.

    Thatcher and Reagan had political ideas, and they persuaded voters to believe in those ideas. Key has no ideas, and no ability to persuade. Popularity is all he can manage.

    Its like coming to party with no drinks.

    Colin Craig at least brings a bottle of wine that is maybe not to everyone’s taste, but at least he brings something. Key turns up empty handed and gets by on a joke and a smile.

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  15. tvb (4,360 comments) says:

    John Key is easily the best National PM in our lifetime and I think the best ever.

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  16. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    “The Conservatives would have a better chance of getting over the line if there was more Conservative about them than the name and blue billboards.”

    But you’ve got no problem with National completely betraying their founding principles?

    “To promote good citizenship and self-reliance; to combat communism and socialism; to maintain freedom of contract; to encourage private enterprise; to safeguard individual rights and the privilege of ownership; to oppose interference by the State in business, and State control of industry”.

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  17. Cato (1,095 comments) says:

    I’ll not vote for the Conservative Party until it drops its ideological support for state ownership of the means for production. Go over to its website and you’ll see that it’s apparently ‘unconservative’ to support the sale of state assets as per their ‘test’ of whether you subscribe to conservatism.

    I’d love there to be a real conservative party that doesn’t subscribe to obnoxious “ACT on Campus” immaturity. The Conservatives don’t look like that to me. Part of the problem is the dominance of Colin Craig in the set-up, who is seems just too easy to dismiss.

    Though I do really enjoy seeing how completely bothered Peter Dunne and his resident fan-boi seem to be by the Conservatives. What’s the reason for that? The fact that they are essentially a former constituent of United Future that now seems to eclipse them?

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  18. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    “John Key is easily the best National PM in our lifetime and I think the best ever.”

    Hard to rebut something so well supported with facts and evidence.

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  19. James Stephenson (2,152 comments) says:

    But you’ve got no problem with National completely betraying their founding principles?

    I’m not a Nat voter, or member. I’m a former ACT voter with nowhere useful to place a vote currently.

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  20. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    “Go over to its website and you’ll see that it’s apparently ‘unconservative’ to support the sale of state assets as per their ‘test’ of whether you subscribe to conservatism.”

    As I said yesterday (and received no answer) when are you going to apply a similar test to the National Party?

    Honestly, I don’t see how anyone who criticises Craig on any ideological failure can then go and vote for a pack of complete and utter turncoats like National.

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  21. Cato (1,095 comments) says:

    @Redbaiter – have you ever met John Key? Serious question.

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  22. martinh (1,257 comments) says:

    Duncans a ranter

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  23. berend (1,704 comments) says:

    smttc: John Key made a difference:

    1. Tax cuts: they were fiscally neutral. We didn’t get a tax cut. Sorry boy.

    2. Employment law changes: ah, forgot, John Key forced 15 year old newspaper runners to pay taxes!

    3. Kiwisaver changes. Yeah, for the better?

    4. Partial Floats of SOEs: yeah, that’s going to work well to sell 49%. Taxpayer still on the hook for 100%.

    5. A multitude of Welfare reforms: I think you confuse announcements with implemented policies. Change is basically nothing (else it would show up in the numbers wouldn’t it?)

    6. Changes to the ETS: ETS still here. And that’s why you are paying so much more for your petrol.

    7. Three strikes (yes I know it’s ACT’s policy but National went along with it.): you say it all….

    But, but, Labour would have been so much worse!!!

    PS: our debt is still rising buddy. Masking over your failed term by borrowing and borrowing and let the future pay for your spending is the stupidest trick in the book.

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  24. martinh (1,257 comments) says:

    have you ever met John Key? Serious question.

    Cato- i have. He comes across as a politician personality, i didnt like it but i find they all a pretty much like that

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  25. James Stephenson (2,152 comments) says:

    Oh, and Red, I’m not criticising CC on some “ideological failure”, I’m criticising the fact that the contents of the tin don’t match the label.

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  26. dime (9,849 comments) says:

    “1. Tax cuts: they were fiscally neutral. We didn’t get a tax cut. Sorry boy.”

    I got a tax cut. A nice big juicy bastard it was too.

    I dont spend every dollar, hence i avoid GST.

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  27. berend (1,704 comments) says:

    For all the National Socialist Party fan boys out there:

    For several years the government has continually signalled that one of its primary goals has been to return its books to the black by 2014/15, after five years of borrowing has led to net debt climbing by $50 billion.

    I put the important stuff in black. That’s John Key’s legacy: let your children pay the bills.

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  28. Than (462 comments) says:

    We’re over a year out from an election, so Key is keeping his options open. Sensible enough. But any arrangement with the Conservatives comes with significant drawbacks. For a start the gains the Conservatives would make (if they look like getting in their vote will go up, probably to 4-5%) would come at National’s expense. And (despite Key’s dismissive soundbite) there will be some percentage of National-leaning voters who dislike Colin Craig enough to either not vote or switch to Labour. Each time Craig makes one of his infamous statements that number goes up, and even if he doesn’t make any new ones Labour and the Greens would have a field day reminding people of all his old shockers.

    Making an arrangement with the Conservatives could well cost National more seats than the Conservatives bring in.

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  29. Cato (1,095 comments) says:

    I’ve met him just a couple of times. I’m not really with him politically – well, not on social issues anyway. I’m also not naturally inclined to his CEO style of political management, which might speak to snobbery on my part more than anything.

    But of all the political leaders I’ve met, I’ve never met somebody so disarmingly self-assured and (apparently) genuine. There is something about him – a je ne sais quoi – that enables him to exude competence and trustworthiness. On paper you would think he’d be a Mitt Romney type – but he just doesn’t come across that way.

    He’s a rare political talent and I’m glad he’s on my side – even if I don’t agree with him on a lot of things. Frankly, he’s much less likely to damage the country than all the alternatives and that’s good enough for me. Politicians can’t be messiahs. If you’re looking for one, you’ll be disappointed.

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  30. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    “I’m criticising the fact that the contents of the tin don’t match the label.”

    Cute phrase but doesn’t change things at all.

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  31. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    “That’s John Key’s legacy: let your children pay the bills.”

    The same old same old, we should judge politicians by what they do, not by what they say.

    Urban Redneck nutshelled it.

    Key is an empty suit.

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  32. Pete George (23,474 comments) says:

    For a start the gains the Conservatives would make (if they look like getting in their vote will go up, probably to 4-5%) would come at National’s expense. And (despite Key’s dismissive soundbite) there will be some percentage of National-leaning voters who dislike Colin Craig enough to either not vote or switch to Labour.

    Making an arrangement with the Conservatives could well cost National more seats than the Conservatives bring in.

    I’m getting vibes of there being more down that up side to this for National. It’s high risk for them.

    The timing means it could be just testing the political winds, with plenty of time to bail out and scrap supporting Craig when it comes to crunch time next year.

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  33. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    Be so so good to see that useless bunch of stand for nothing/everything losers United Future evaporate.

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  34. Cato (1,095 comments) says:

    The thing is, I don’t think most National MPs are wedded to state ownership of the means of production as a matter of principle. I think they support its continued existence at a level because of the realities of electoral politics in New Zealand and the fact they’re responsible to govern.

    Colin Craig is not encumbered by such a responsibility and yet he positively states that he favours socialist economics. If you’re going to vote for principle over prudence, the principles need to be fairly strong and ideologically coherent. Craig isn’t – despite the fact that there’s no reason for him to compromise on either matter.

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  35. gazzmaniac (2,307 comments) says:

    That’s John Key’s legacy: let your children pay the bills.

    What’s the alternative? Dump the baby and the bathwater? Even though it’s painfully slow, gradual reform is better than fast reform because less people get hurt in the process. I’d also rather have 12-15 years of National doing gradual reform than 3 years of fast reform that gets overturned by the Greens and Labour – a far worse result in the long run.

    after five years of borrowing has led to net debt climbing by $50 billion.

    The point is that they made a plan to get back into surplus and are probably going to do just that. As I just said, if they’d slashed and burned they would have been out after their first term.

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  36. big bruv (13,718 comments) says:

    “I think”

    The two words that demonstrate all that is wrong with modern political journalists.

    Garner, Comrade Kampbell and co need to be told that the public do not give a toss what they think. Just give us the facts and let us make up our own minds without the left wing bias.

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  37. alwyn (416 comments) says:

    To give the Conservatives a chance they are going to have to get some TV time.
    I think that all the parties, except National, would be trying to convince the Electoral Commission, or whoever it is that allocates the time, that they shouldn’t be allowed any time on TV at all. That would probably keep their party vote down to the point where, even if they were to win an electorate seat they wouldn’t carry anyone else in from the list.
    The other question that is likely to generate a great deal of angst is likely to be who gets to debate with who.
    National and Labour are very likely to want to hold debates only with each other. I am sure the Green party will be jumping up and down to insist that they must be included with these two, but that every other party must be confined to another, smaller debate.
    I doubt that the others will agree, particularly Winnie, but I’m not sure what the split will be. Any opinion David?

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  38. gazzmaniac (2,307 comments) says:

    alwyn – Who gets air time is up to the editors at the TV station, not the electoral commission.
    The Conservatives will get some advertising allowance on back of their result last time.

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  39. dime (9,849 comments) says:

    “I’m getting vibes of there being more down that up side to this for National. It’s high risk for them.”

    of course you are, you misread politics every day. wishful thinking doesnt make it so.

    Sure, people will mouth of “im not voting for national if…”

    but reality is they arent going to go and vote for a greens/mana/labour/united/maori coalition just because of craig.

    Craig sounds ok when interviewed. hes not a nut bar. hes not going to try and force weird shit on national. maybe just help them with their spine.

    hes probably not going to get himself demoted due to dishonesty either. or sadly chase some average looking reporter and humiliate his wife.

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  40. Pete George (23,474 comments) says:

    This highlights the stupidity of not lowering the MMP threshold.

    Craig needs to win a seat and if National assist with that it could backfire on them. Or CP need 5% which is also high risk, if they don’t quite make it there’s a lot of wasted vote that will impact on National.

    And if CP make 5% they have 6-7 new MPs with no experience so not much use until they get up to speed, and that will take time. So for possibly much of the term they are little more than votes.

    If CP and NZF were virtually assured of getting in via a sensible threshold (if we had one at all) and Act and UF had more chance of getting two or three seats that would give National – or Labour – much more options to put together a coalition that is no dependent on any one small party.

    But National blew it.

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  41. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    I have said this before and I will keep saying it as long as I need to.

    You can be as critical as you like about the Conservative Party, and wilfully ignore the betrayal of the National Party, but what is important is that the slerotic orthodoxy of the revolving door progressive cycle of successive Labour/ National govts is broken.

    Therefore the Conservative Party, for all of its flaws, is the best chance NZ has now to bring change. (and who disgrees that change is necessary).

    National have been a failure. Labour are driving the train and the Nats just warm the seats until they come back and start driving again.

    The Conservative Party represents the thin end of the wedge.

    Every problem we have in this country is down to the Progressives. Racism. Separatism. Over spending. Welfarism. Big govt. High taxes. A massive regulatory establishment. Crime. Violence. Cultural collapse. All progressive ideas, yet Key is so politically out of touch HE DOES NOT EVEN KNOW THIS SIMPLE FACT.

    Colin Craig at least understands this – he says the battle is between the Conservatives and the Liberals. (Progs). So he’s ahead of Key in understanding how to fix this country.

    Key and the Nationals- more of the same.

    The Conservative Party- the thin end of the wedge of change.

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  42. Cato (1,095 comments) says:

    I agree with Dime – the only reason you would ask a United Future supporter about what’s electorally advisable is so that you can do the opposite.

    Whatever Colin Craig’s position is, and however uncomfortable some are with him, I don’t think it’ll cause defections to Labour or the Greens. You can scoff about his views on AGW but how many actual New Zealand voters prioritise that when deciding how to vote? How many of them would vote for National anyway? Same with gay marriage – there is zero chance of repeal so what can Colin Craig really do on the matter? Nothing. People aren’t dumb – they realise that.

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  43. Pete George (23,474 comments) says:

    Sure, people will mouth of “im not voting for national if…”

    Through clenched teeth. That’s happening. One of the most common voting preferences I’m hearing is “no one”. I’m in that category, no obvious choice for party vote. Our political choices are far from encouraging.

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  44. gazzmaniac (2,307 comments) says:

    You can be as critical as you like about the Conservative Party, and wilfully ignore the betrayal of the NAtional PArty, but what is important is that the slerotic Progressive orthodoxy of the revolving door progressive cycle of successive Labour/ National govts is broken.

    By nationalising people’s land if they don’t develop it?

    The Conservative Party represents the thin end of the wedge.

    They sure do.

    Key is so politically out of touch HE DOES NOT EVEN KNOW THIS SIMPLE FACT.

    He can’t be that politically out of touch. He is Prime Minister and you are not.

    Colin Craig at least understand this – he says the battle is between the Conservatives and the Liberals. (Progs). So he’s ahead of Key in understanding how to fix this country.

    Key and the Nationals- more of the same.

    The Conservative Party- the thin end of the wedge of change.

    Like nationalising land.

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  45. MT_Tinman (3,130 comments) says:

    Dime, I disagree with you re Craig, he strikes me as a complete nutter, saying what he thinks will get him votes rather than his honest position.

    As an ex-ACT voter I have nowhere to go but I’m damned sure the CCCP won’t get my vote, no matter how much National need that.

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  46. flash2846 (273 comments) says:

    I’m giving Key and the Nats a big thumbs’ up. In my opinion and that of our work place straw poll; this group is rated the best leadership experienced in our life times.

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  47. Pete George (23,474 comments) says:

    @dime
    “of course you are, you misread politics every day”
    “Craig sounds ok when interviewed. hes not a nut bar.”

    You gotta be kidding. Ok, you probably aren’t, but that’s a howler.

    Craig on AGW. Craig on mandatory parental control. Craig on gays. Craig on every second thing he says.

    He looks as solid for National as Harawira is for Labour.

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  48. Cato (1,095 comments) says:

    If there was a serious and articulate political figure who could make the case for conservative principles while not being marginalised by the media then I would think about voting for them. As it is, there isn’t such a person. In it’s absence, I just don’t see how you can go past John Key.

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  49. nickb (3,686 comments) says:

    I’m pretty sure you could find Peter Dunne supporting most of those things at some time during his political career PG.

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  50. Cato (1,095 comments) says:

    Colin Craig doesn’t believe in AGW. Who cares? Which set of voters is AGW a priority for? Craig is against internet pornography. So what? Colin Craig doesn’t support gay marriage. It passed and it’s not going to be repealed, so what difference does it make?

    Just what is it with the Peter Dunne fan-bois and their strong, strong hatred of Colin Craig?

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  51. James Stephenson (2,152 comments) says:

    The Conservative Party- the thin end of the wedge of change.

    When the policy mix is more-or-less indistinguishable from Winston First?

    With the demise of ACT, it looks to me that the main un-represented group of voters are economically “dry”, actual conservatives.

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  52. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    “As an ex-ACT voter I have nowhere to go but I’m damned sure the CCCP won’t get my vote, no matter how much National need that.”

    You see what I mean?

    Craig is flushing all of the National Party progs out of hiding, and they’re going to vote Green or Labour.

    This has to be an advantage in the long run. They have been polluting the ideological base of the National Party for too long and we have a ruined country to show for it.

    Let them get their useless commie arses over to Labour and the Greens and we will all be the better for it.

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  53. dime (9,849 comments) says:

    “Our political choices are far from encouraging.” – especially when you stand

    Craig on AGW. – so if you dont believe in mad made global warming where high taxataion is the only solution you are nuts?

    Craig on mandatory parental control. – i disagree with the policy. doesnt make it nuts.

    Craig on gays – once again, i disagree but not nuts.

    Craig on every second thing he says. – coming from you?

    i guess its what you dont say, rather than what you say. like when a guy brags about beating his wife and you say nothing. that makes you NUTS.

    anyway, its veterens day in the US, shouldnt you be on one of their blogs talking about how guys were shit heads/ bad parents for choosing to go to war rather than stay at home with their kids.

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  54. dime (9,849 comments) says:

    “Just what is it with the Peter Dunne fan-bois and their strong, strong hatred of Colin Craig?”

    correct answer – colin craig will make dung even more worthless. typical leftist (pretending to be centrist) bullshit. try and make the other guy appear insane/stupid/nuts. defmae. whatever it takes.

    all the while dung gets a pass – remember when he kept voting yes on the “take away dimes free speech” bill. until the last second where he realised just how out of touch he was with the electorate.

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  55. Cato (1,095 comments) says:

    I don’t support Colin Craig and I’m fairly certain I’m not a communist.

    I took my lumps in my community for taking a principled stance against gay marriage and for the sale of government businesses. I certainly don’t feel like a progressive.

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  56. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    Cato, I am not saying you are a communist, but Progressives definitely are. They just don’t know it. Stalin’s “useful idiots”.

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  57. gazzmaniac (2,307 comments) says:

    Craig is flushing all of the National Party progs out of hiding, and they’re going to vote Green or Labour.

    You call me a prog. There is no way in hell that I will be voting for a Labour or Green government.
    You also call DPF a prog. I very much doubt he will either.

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  58. gazzmaniac (2,307 comments) says:

    Hey Red, if Progressives are Stalin’s “useful idiots” does that make you a useless idiot?

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  59. Cato (1,095 comments) says:

    I just wonder how much good it does to persuade people to change their mind to use a lot of jargon. I’m actually for more robust, ideological debate, but when you overuse terms of art like “progressive” or “communist” or “fascist” don’t people’s eyes just glaze over? What’s wrong with more generic but commonly understood words like “hypocrite” or “charlatan” or “jerk”.

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  60. wikiriwhis business (3,883 comments) says:

    John Keys legacy will be the TPP whilst living it up in Hawaii next dor to Obama while we live in draconian fuedalism and a police state. TPP is Keys only goal now. he has no vision beyond this UN agenda. If he gts voted in again he’ll just leave Bill English to run the country as usual.

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  61. gazzmaniac (2,307 comments) says:

    wikiriwhis business – the CIA shot JFK and 9/11 was an inside job too.

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  62. James Stephenson (2,152 comments) says:

    Craig is flushing all of the National Party progs out of hiding, and they’re going to vote Green or Labour.

    Don’t the National Party progs run the National Party?

    Question: Why would someone, who is not a tribal Lefty, not vote for the National Party?

    1) They’re economically Right Wing
    2) They’re socially conservative but economically centrist at best and Gay Marriage might have pissed them off.

    Winston, CCCP and Untied Future are fighting over group 2. Who’s looking for Group 1’s votes? Libertarianz, and that’s about it.

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  63. Cato (1,095 comments) says:

    Good analysis, James Stephenson. Why doesn’t ACT do it for group 1?

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  64. Pete George (23,474 comments) says:

    Question: Why would someone, who is not a tribal Lefty, not vote for the National Party?

    I think there’s a resistance to one party rule. Probably one reason why National support dipped leading in to the last election after they had been polling at 50+.

    And many centre/lefties won’t vote National but don’t like the current Labour and Greens scare the hell out of them.

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  65. RichardX (325 comments) says:

    Redbaiter (6,250) Says:
    November 12th, 2013 at 3:51 pm
    I have said this before and I will keep saying it as long as I need to.

    Judging from the influence you have on the political landscape in NZ you will have to repeat yourself for a long time
    Is it 10 years and counting?

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  66. James Stephenson (2,152 comments) says:

    @Cato – I’m making the assumption that the ACT brand is fatally wounded.

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  67. RRM (9,826 comments) says:

    Craig is flushing all of the National Party progs out of hiding, and they’re going to vote Green or Labour.

    Of course they are, of course they are.

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  68. Cato (1,095 comments) says:

    I thought so. I do think that might be a hasty assumption. True – they need to get past John Banks – and I agree the whole Don Brash coup was a completely cack-handed event that should be an eternal discredit to those who organised it.

    But provided they select a good candidate and win Epsom again – which you can’t rule out – then I’d say it’s even money. They key thing is for it to get an effective megaphone back. The type of people who would vote for ACT will be the type of people who pay attention to politics, not the type of people phased by the superficialities of mass media attention.

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  69. Bad__Cat (140 comments) says:

    As soon as I’d read the post I thought I’d better quickly read the comments before you-know-who started frothing at the mouth in an attempt to hijack the discussion. Too slow!!

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  70. Cato (1,095 comments) says:

    Peter George – do you think that’s why Peter Dunne’s tail has been up this week? Do you think he thinks 2014 will be like 2002 with people flocking to UF to moderate that National goverment?

    If so, you might get into Parliament. Will you stand for the list?

    But I doubt history will repeat for Peter Dunne – things have moved on from 2002 too much.

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  71. Pete George (23,474 comments) says:

    Cato – I haven’t seen anything to suggest such a flocking. Not even a bit of fluttering. Something needs to change substantially for UF to be anything other than Dunne in Ohariu next election. Something also needs to change substantially for Act to be anything next election. A year’s a year but…

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  72. James Stephenson (2,152 comments) says:

    Sensible words Cato, it’ll take a bloody credible candidate to make up for Brash / Banks but if nobody else’s really contesting for my vote…

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  73. gazzmaniac (2,307 comments) says:

    Pete George – I think that something is the caucus of United Future.

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  74. RRM (9,826 comments) says:

    :lol: LOL, Dunne fancied himself as a swordsman whem he was a party of one, he’d think he was Big L if he had five or six list bitches with him…

    I got the wild style, always been a foul child
    My guns go poom-poom, and yo’ guns go pow-pow
    I’m known to have a hottie open, I keep the shottie smokin
    Front and get half the bones in your body broken
    And when it comes to gettin nookie I’m not a rookie
    I got girls that make that chick Andrea Vance look like Whoopie
    I run with sturdy clicks I’m never hittin dirty chicks
    Got thirty-five bodies, buddy don’t make it thirty-six
    Step to this you’re good as gone, word is bond
    I leave mics torn when I put it on

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  75. nasska (11,277 comments) says:

    There’s only one part of the political spectrum left homeless & that consists of those who seek a party affording good economic management that stays to hell out of the bedrooms & relationships of its constituents.

    The CCCP aint it.

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  76. RRM (9,826 comments) says:

    [Kid PG:]
    So put it on Big L, put it on
    C’mon put it onnn, and onnn, and onnn
    C’mon put it on Big L, put it on
    C’mon put it on represent put it on, C’MON!

    [Big D:]
    Nobody can take nuttin from Big D but a loss chief
    The last time Winston fronted he got a mouth full of false teeth
    I’m known to gas a hottie and blast the shottie
    Got more cash than Gotti (you don’t know?) you betta ask somebody
    Big D is a crazy brother, and I’m a lady lover
    A smooth kid that’ll run up in your baby mother
    I push a slick Benz, I’m known to hit skinz
    And get endz and commit sins with sick friends
    Cause I’m a money getter, also a honey hitter
    You think you nice as me? Ha ha, youse a funny nigga
    I flows, so one of my shows, wouldn’t be clever to miss
    I’m leavin competitors pissed
    To tell you the truth, it gets no better than this
    I’m catchin wreck to the break of dawn
    And it’s on, yo it’s a must that I put it on

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  77. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    Narsekissa, the watermelon.

    Another prog commie flushed out of hiding.

    And good riddance again.

    Shouldn’t you be over on Frogblog with your loser mates?

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  78. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    “Judging from the influence you have on the political landscape in NZ you will have to repeat yourself for a long time”

    Look again commie and note how the progs hate me and how like you they express that hate rather than any coherent counter argument.

    Target, flack.

    Cue prog whining… “I don’t hate you blah blah blah…”

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  79. Cato (1,095 comments) says:

    I’m not a libertarian – at a push I could go with classical liberalism – so take this as you will. Personally, I think the biggest problem for the ACT Party is that the “United Party” side of the coalition presently dominates. This wing is business friendly and socially permissive – at least in coaltion – so why would person inclined towards that but not a hardcore politico vote for ACT?

    If the “Reform Party” side of National were to predominate, I think they would have a better chance. They don’t, which is why I think there’s space for a conservative party at the moment. Mores the pity that, cometh the hour, cometh has Colin Craig.

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  80. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    “There is no way in hell that I will be voting for a Labour or Green government.”

    You will eventually.

    When the wedge gets thicker.

    Your spiritual and ideological home is on the left.

    I know it because I see the way you behave on here and it tells me there is not a principled bone in your body.

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  81. nasska (11,277 comments) says:

    ….”Cue prog whining… “I don’t hate you blah blah blah…””….

    You’re not important or effective enough to warrant wasting the energy hatred entails Baity. :)

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  82. Cato (1,095 comments) says:

    @Redbaiter – I’ve been as guilty of this as anyone, but I don’t think talking to people like that does a lot to move them in a conservative direction.

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  83. gazzmaniac (2,307 comments) says:

    Look again commie and note how the progs hate me and how like you they express that hate rather than any coherent counter argument.

    We don’t hate you. We just have contempt for you.

    “There is no way in hell that I will be voting for a Labour or Green government.”

    You will eventually.

    When the wedge gets thicker.

    The wedge after all the land has been nationalised by the conservatives?

    Your spiritual and ideological home is on the left.

    I know it because I see the way you behave on here and it tells me there is not a principled bone in your body.

    You are more authoritarian than I am, so that makes you further to the left than me.

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  84. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    “@Redbaiter – I’ve been as guilty of this as anyone, but I don’t think talking to people like that does a lot to move them in a conservative direction.”

    You won’t ever move the brain damaged Cato, whatever you say.

    When you’ve got idiots who say they’d rather vote for the Watermelons than a National Conservative coalition you know they’re past reason.

    Its best they get out and stop fouling the nest.

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  85. nasska (11,277 comments) says:

    …”I don’t think talking to people like that does a lot to move them in a conservative direction.”…..

    It’s the only way he knows Cato. That’s why these forums are cluttered up with the rubbish the effete old fool spouts.

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  86. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    Slink, slide, lick, belly crawl.

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  87. RichardX (325 comments) says:

    What possible argument is there in the statement of fact that you have no influence on the political landscape in NZ?
    You are delusional and over state your influence and importance. KB has a small audience that has no negligible impact on the political landscape in NZ and you get a mixed reception even here.
    Care to offer any evidence, other than the demented ramblings on an anonymous bitter old man, that you do influence the political landscape in NZ?

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  88. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    “Care to offer any evidence, other than the demented ramblings on an anonymous bitter old man, that you do influence the political landscape in NZ?”

    You really need to take a reading and comprehension refresher course. Your skills in that area are so weak as to be almost non-existant.

    I just told you why, and you just provided more proof.

    If I was of no consequence here and elsewhere in the blogosphere I wouldn’t attract such a baying herd of jackals and trolls like you and the rest.

    I spend all my time dealing with your endless worthless shit instead of arguing any real point.

    Its all the proof you need that I’m having an effect.

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  89. thedavincimode (6,691 comments) says:

    RichardX

    Your statement that he overstates his influence is a substantial understatement.

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  90. nasska (11,277 comments) says:

    Just like gastro-enteritis. :)

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  91. Pete George (23,474 comments) says:

    @RichardX – RB? tdm? Manolo?

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  92. gazzmaniac (2,307 comments) says:

    The only effect you are having is a comedic one Red.

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  93. thedavincimode (6,691 comments) says:

    Ruined your timing there nasska. :)

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  94. thedavincimode (6,691 comments) says:

    Pete

    You have to stop copying baity and going all pouty.

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  95. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    See what I mean?

    They’re fascinated.

    The Vaseline boy has been obsessed for years.

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  96. nasska (11,277 comments) says:

    You may be a potential member of the CCCP if you believe:

    That the National Party should limit itself to the ideals espoused in its founding document which include banning gay marriages, regulating indecent content on the Internet & taking guidance on the Nation’s morals from religious busy-bodies.

    That you must first don rubber gloves before shaking hands with a homosexual.

    That those with views dissimilar to the majority may restrict the fair practice of those in the majority if the former’s Skydaddy says so.

    That if parents & teachers don’t mention sex to a child until he/she is 25, then he/she won’t even know it exists until then

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  97. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    Just stop whining Narsekissa and go vote Watermelon, as you promised you would.

    And take your bigoted crap to Frog Blog.

    They love that stuff over there.

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  98. gazzmaniac (2,307 comments) says:

    Are you starting another flame war Red?

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  99. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    I never start flame wars Gazza, I just finish them.

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  100. gazzmaniac (2,307 comments) says:

    No, I am pretty sure you start them too.

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  101. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    See that Richard?

    Gazza is another obsessive.

    Really, you wouldn’t believe it.

    Narsekissa, Kea, Davinci, Gazzamaniac, PG, and a hundred more all hang on every word I say.

    I’m world famous on Kiwiblog.

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  102. gazzmaniac (2,307 comments) says:

    So not famous at all then.

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  103. nasska (11,277 comments) says:

    ….”I never start flame wars Gazza, I just finish them.”….

    Translation: After he’s bored everyone comatose he jumps up & yells, “I’ve won!”. :)

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  104. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    “No, I am pretty sure you start them too.”

    Have never started one. My opening comments are always on topic, and if I take it anywhere else, it just to let selfish trolling cowards like you know you are never going to intimidate me into shutting up.

    Never.

    I have fought scum like you for ten years and I’ll do it for another fifty if I have to.

    So bring it on yellow back.

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  105. thedavincimode (6,691 comments) says:

    :roll:

    Just a minute, isn’t it more than ten years? I thought you were into the second ten year phase of the twenty year master strategy to liberate the Universe and anything else handy??

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  106. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    What’s a few years between friends?

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  107. gazzmaniac (2,307 comments) says:

    Have never started one. My opening comments are always on topic, and if I take it anywhere else, it just to let selfish trolling cowards like you know you are never going to intimidate me into shutting up.

    There is only one person throwing insults here Red, and that’s you.
    You’ve hijacked a thread about John Key and made it into one about the conservatives, and now you’re using it to abuse other commenters. Whether you’re acting alone or with others, you start them all the time.

    I have fought scum like you for ten years and I’ll do it for another fifty if I have to.

    You haven’t done very well in the last ten years. You know what they say about people who continue to do the same thing and expect a different result.

    So bring it on yellow back.

    Classic flame war instigating.

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  108. thedavincimode (6,691 comments) says:

    Russell, you old homo you, I knew it was all front. Sorry though, but I’m just not like that.

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  109. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    “You’ve hijacked a thread”

    Ha ha.

    Thanks for the laugh you selfish narcissistic child.

    This makes the third thread you have devastated in two days with childish go nowhere crap.

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  110. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    “Sorry though, but I’m just not like that.”

    That’s not what Narsekissa and Gary say.

    Anyway, the preoccupation with matters scatological gave you away long ago.

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  111. gazzmaniac (2,307 comments) says:

    And it’d make this the 100th that you’ve hijacked in the last month.

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  112. gazzmaniac (2,307 comments) says:

    That’s not what Narsekissa and Gary say.

    The old “you’re gay” retort.

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  113. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    Oh, but you said it about Davinci.

    I’m only accepting your word.

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  114. gazzmaniac (2,307 comments) says:

    No I didn’t. You made that up yourself.

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  115. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    Yes you did nah nah nah.

    Have another dummy suck child.

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  116. gazzmaniac (2,307 comments) says:

    Red’s latest argument
    “nah nah nah nah nah nah nah nah nah nah nah nah nah nah nah nah nah nah nah nah nah I CAN’T HEAR YOU”

    I’m bored, see you later.

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  117. nasska (11,277 comments) says:

    Deep down you may be a Conservative if:

    Jesus loves you, and shares your hatred of homosexuals and progressives.

    You’re a pro-lifer, but support the death penalty.

    You think that Michaelangelo’s David should be wearing boxers at the least.

    You believe that everyone else should hold the same moralistic, political views as you & by God, you’re going to see to it that they do!

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  118. RichardX (325 comments) says:

    If I was of no consequence here and elsewhere in the blogosphere I wouldn’t attract such a baying herd of jackals and trolls like you and the rest.

    Let me be more clear
    Anonymous commenters in the blogosphere have very little influence on the political landscape
    I have no influence; you have no influence but you do provide entertainment due to your delusions
    What you say or what people say about you means nothing but appears to reinforce your view that you are important and have something useful to say

    DPF has influence as far as framing the debate but nothing you say here influences anything
    There are regulars who agree with you and others who disagree with you but I doubt you have changed any minds on any subject

    PG has more influence than you because he actually strives to acheive something, not always successfully, but it is a far more honest attempt to make a change in NZ politics that anything you have done

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  119. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    “I’m bored, see you later.”

    I was bored three hours ago, but teaching you anti-freedom of expression prog thugs a lesson always pays off in the long run.

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  120. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    “I have no influence; you have no influence but you do provide entertainment”

    Yes, and whether that is true or not to say that entertainers cannot influence political ideas is just dumb thing to say.

    In my time challenging left wing hate merchants like you on the net I have seen many changes gradually occur, and I know I am having an effect, and as I keep repeating, if that’s not true why are you and a score of others here obsessing over Redbaiter rather than arguing on the issue.

    I have had many an influence on political debate in this country. I would wish for more but I am happy enough. Lets see where we are in another ten years.

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  121. RichardX (325 comments) says:

    I have had many an influence on political debate in this country.

    Still no evidence offered and no point in arguing with the delusional

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  122. nasska (11,277 comments) says:

    You’re confusing being the blog easy beat & influencing political opinion Baity.

    You’re tops for entertainment value but that’s it I’m afraid. :)

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  123. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    “Still no evidence offered and no point in arguing with the delusional”

    Good go away then, you’ve had nothing interesting to say on the topic of the thread anyway.

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  124. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    “You’re tops for entertainment value but that’s it I’m afraid.”

    DPF should charge you prog trolls $1 for every comment you make in response to Redbaiter.

    You still couldn’t stop yourself and Mr. Farrar would be a millionaire eventually.

    BTW, one clear thing I have achieved is to expose you for the commie trojan horse you have always been.

    Signed up with the Watermelons yet?

    Loser.

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  125. RichardX (325 comments) says:

    Good go away then, you’ve had nothing interesting to say on the topic of the thread anyway.

    And the delusion is that you have said anything interesting

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  126. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    As I keep saying, I’ve kept you and a score of other trolls enthralled.

    Just a shame you won’t discuss the issue.

    I guess you know you’d lose.

    BTW, do you often say you’re doing something and then not do it?

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  127. stigie (1,101 comments) says:

    Reddy says
    Craig is flushing all of the National Party progs out of hiding, and they’re going to vote Green or Labour.

    This is bullshit Reddy, the only bloke that said he was going to vote for the greens was Nasska,

    and he flushed himself out weeks ago ole chap. That is only one person Reddy !!~

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  128. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    You said the same thing Stigie.

    BTW, when are you going to write a real argument here?

    Something that’s more than a few lines of infantile excrement?

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  129. stigie (1,101 comments) says:

    Cant help yourself can you Reddy !! Cant give an answer.

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  130. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (876 comments) says:

    An economically sound team of Cunliffe – Norman – Peters – Hone will draw lot of investors to NZ….

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  131. RRM (9,826 comments) says:

    I’m world famous on Kiwiblog

    Don’t forget whale oil. They LUFFS you on there too.

    That could be your epitaph.

    Here lies Russell Redbaiter, he once got 50 likes for a comment on whale oil.

    Eventually they banned him because he was just too good.

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  132. Manolo (13,571 comments) says:

    An economically sound team of Cunliffe – Norman – Peters – Hone will draw lot of investors to NZ

    Working alongside the next Minister of Revenue: Peter Dunne.

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  133. thedavincimode (6,691 comments) says:

    I have had many an influence on political debate in this country

    True. Liebour could only take it into the toilet. You took it down the sewer. Your critical success factor. Give that man a life-time pass on the Tauranga Harbour Bridge.

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  134. Sponge (160 comments) says:

    “you’ve had nothing interesting to say on the topic of the thread anyway.”

    Yes Red. Your views and your huge influence is why you are posting and link whoreing here. Your significant influence obviously does not extend to having people read your blog….

    You are a fool.

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  135. Redbaiter (8,528 comments) says:

    Wow, the groupies just keep coming.

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  136. Bogusnews (473 comments) says:

    A pleasing post by Garner. I was rather annoyed at his dealing with Brash, so it’s nice to see he isn’t automatically opposed to any party other than Labour.

    National is also doing better than I expected. I get a bit frustrated when I hear people complaining Key has increased the overseas debt. Of course he has, but with the basket case economy he inherited (treasury was predicting never ending deficits, we were well on the way to becoming another Greece or Italy) he had no other choice. I would have liked him to be more aggressive in cutting govt spending, but he wanted to shelter NZ as much as possible from the GFC. And by and large it seems to have worked, especially as we are about to go into surplus and Labour (and the media) have not had the opportunity to label him a rabid right winger.

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  137. lazza (381 comments) says:

    GARNER SAYS …

    “Your choice is between John Key and Bill English with a few rag-tag minor right wing parties – or David Cunliffe and Russel Norman – with perhaps Winston Peters in tow.

    Who do you trust?”

    Answer: Certainly not the Loony Toons Losers!

    The choice … with a stable and improving economy … and the 2014 election result is a no brainer.

    Just watch Parliament and compare the left-side deadbeat-oddbods- with a (soon to be further vitalised) Nats bench. Now! who do you trust?

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  138. seanmaitland (500 comments) says:

    Could someone enlighten me – isn’t Duncan Garner the guy from TV3 who spent the last 5 years hating on National with massively biased segments on the news?

    This seems like a big turn around in his attitude?

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  139. lazza (381 comments) says:

    How mny more Redbaiter Blog Blitz’s do we have to endure Slim Dave? The ping pong reply/response/riposte/etc is just CRAP.

    Please either filter him/her/it OUT … or ban completely … OK?

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