Latest poll

November 10th, 2013 at 6:29 pm by David Farrar

I’ve blogged the latest 3 News Reid Research poll at Curiablog. Some insights I take from it:

  • Projects a centre-right Government, despite fall for National who got just over 46%
  • Labour up only 1% from July to 32% and July was in the middle of the man ban controversy for them
  • Was taken the week of Labour’s national conference, which is normally a good poll boost for a party
  • Cunliffe only at 11% Preferred PM, which is below what David Shearer was at in July
  • Conservatives up to almost 3%

 

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106 Responses to “Latest poll”

  1. Redbaiter (7,862 comments) says:

    Conservatives slowly building.

    Making a lot of Kommiblogger’s predictions wrong.

    Shows they’re out of touch.

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  2. tvb (4,235 comments) says:

    Cunliffe is failing to fire with the public. He has much better presentation skills than Shearer but he tries to be all things to all people. And he is sloppy with his facts. So far John Key eats him for breakfast

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  3. big bruv (13,458 comments) says:

    “Shows they’re out of touch.”

    Ha ha ha, that is funny enough without it being said by the man who has no grip on reality at all.

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  4. gazzmaniac (2,319 comments) says:

    National are relying on two very minor parties retaining their singular seat. Or put another way, National are relying on two independants to win government.
    It really pains me to say it, but I would be a lot more comfortable if Colin Craig was on target to win a seat. It would be even better if Winston First starts to lose some ground to the conservatives too.
    It would be much better to have the conservatives there and not need them than to need them and not have them.

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  5. Pete George (23,168 comments) says:

    Conservatives have been up and down in various polls so you can’t say they are building. They got 2.65% in the last election.

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  6. gazzmaniac (2,319 comments) says:

    Interestingly the time and size weighted average shows a National government will have to rely on the two independants and the Maoris. Or just the Maoris and sayonara Messers Banks and Dunne.

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  7. Andrew (81 comments) says:

    Colin Craig seemed fairly coherent on Q+A a couple of weeks back, plus there’s been a lot of talk about National + Conservatives over the past couple of weeks. Wouldn’t suprise me if they did get a bit of a lift.

    Not sure any socially liberal/centrist National supporters will like that much – it may actually throw a few votes Labour’s way.

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  8. kowtow (7,876 comments) says:

    Bwhahahahaha

    Bigot bruv’s dream of no parliament prayer just gone out the window!

    Long fight eh bruv?

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  9. gazzmaniac (2,319 comments) says:

    Not sure any socially liberal/centrist National supporters will like that much – it may actually throw a few votes Labour’s way.

    I very much doubt that. They are highly unlikely to vote for a party that has mandated quota and is pushing a nationalisation agenda.

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  10. big bruv (13,458 comments) says:

    Kowtow

    It’s coming, sooner rather than later the house will be free of the sky fairy. The house will be a much better place for it.

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  11. big bruv (13,458 comments) says:

    Andrew.

    Not sure that it will mean that National party people will vote for the dirty stinking left but it might mean that some will not vote at all if Key decides that he will do a deal with dangerous religious fundamentalists.

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  12. Longknives (4,629 comments) says:

    I’d like to hear from Samuel Smith (or whatever his name is) for some balanced, left-wing perspective…

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  13. Don the Kiwi (1,635 comments) says:

    big bigot.

    You are so far out of touch – the Conservative party have made it quite clear that they are not a “religious fundamentalist ” party. They have no religious affiliation whatever.
    Get with the program.
    Your problem is that you are a closet liberal/progressive – your real home is with Labour/Greens.

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  14. Andrew (81 comments) says:

    Bruva – you could be right (excuse the pun). I think if Labour moves further to the centre though, then they’ll make a gain from increased support for the Conservatives.

    Problem is I also think some people, who *were* keeping an open mind, are now beginning to distrust or dislike Cunliffe. That’s just my gut feel.

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  15. big bruv (13,458 comments) says:

    Don the denier.

    “They have no religious affiliation whatever.”

    That is a blatant lie.

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  16. Wayne Mapp (62 comments) says:

    The people who supports Nats, but might switch, are not party members, but simply centre voters who do switch votes between National and Labour from time to time. They do not see the Nats as right wing,and neither do they see Labour as left wing.

    For the moment they are sticking with National, in part, I suspect because Labour and the Greens seem to say “no” to pretty much anything that produces growth. They know NZ will suffer if that is a govt attitude, and will put their own job or business at risk. Most people see through the Green mantra of green jobs, it usually means no jobs.

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  17. Scott (1,730 comments) says:

    I hope the conservatives do well. There is a place for a party of free markets and traditional morals. It was called “National”. But that party has been taken over by the progressives. People who believe in free markets and traditional morals desperately need a voice in Parliament. They certainly don’t have one now.

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  18. gazzmaniac (2,319 comments) says:

    the Conservative party have made it quite clear that they are not a “religious fundamentalist ” party

    Just because a politician says something does not mean it is true. I will not vote for a christian party and I consider that the NZ Conservatives are exactly that.

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  19. Super Guest (13 comments) says:

    The “Conservatives” won’t achieve anything without John Key giving them Rodney. Then again they’re not much better economically than Labour so I don’t know why Key would do that. They’re a big-government party.

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  20. Redbaiter (7,862 comments) says:

    “I will not vote for a christian party”

    You better give some thought to that. Its shaping up for a battle between on one side the Muslims and their Prog allies, and on the other, the Conservatives and the Christians.

    I’m with the latter.

    We don’t NZ’s fake right fouling our defences, so I’m happy to see them on the other side.

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  21. Harriet (4,614 comments) says:

    The Conservatives will get voters who are sick, tired, disgusted and less well off from the National Labour behometh that government has become.

    The massed ranks of public servants do fuck all for most people in NZ. It’s an idealogy in itself. No one will miss them.

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  22. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    It seems to me that there is a bit of confusion as to what a “Christian” Party is. A Christian party is one that calls itself a Christian Party, Like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Party_(France) and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Party_(UK) and http://www.cdp.org.au/

    Big Bruv, would you be able to advise us all as to the religious affiliation of the Conservative Party, because I’ve been right through their website, press releases, and emerging policy statements, and I can’t find it.

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  23. gazzmaniac (2,319 comments) says:

    Red, I don’t give a shit whether people believe in a god or not. I do care if politicians use religion to try and control people’s lives, just like I care when politicians use socialism or climate change to try and control people’s lives. Given that you are so opposed to politicians controlling people’s lives in the name of socialism I am surprised you would support it in the name of religion. We’ve only broken the shackles of the church running states in the last 150-odd years and the last thing we need is for that to come back.

    If there is a battle between Muzzos and Christians then I want no part in it. I will vote for a non-theistic party or I will vote for nobody. Religion is just another way for people in power to control the masses.

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  24. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Mr Wayne Mapp: I suspect that if you conducted some recent membership demographic surveys, or membership exit interviews, you may find an outcome at significant odds with the claim you have made above.

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  25. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Gazzmaniac: I would argue that no Party is “non-theistic” in the strict sense of the term. Culture, Environment, or even money can attract “worship”.

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  26. Pete George (23,168 comments) says:

    The Conservative Party had a strong tie to religious fundamentalism in the 2011 election, with three members of the fundie Kiwi party switching to the CP.

    Party leader Baldock was number three on the Conservative Party list and stood again in Tauranga. Deputy leader Dyer was number 7 on the list and stood in East Coast Bays. Party president Copeland stood in Hutt South.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Kiwi_Party

    Baldock and Copeland had been a part of the Christian wing of United Future, becoming MPs in 2002. Baldock lost his list seat in 2005. Copeland waka jumped from UF during the next term to form what became the Kiwi Party which failed in 2008.

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  27. big bruv (13,458 comments) says:

    Steve Taylor

    If you cant find it then you are not looking hard enough.

    Are you really denying that the CCCP is a religious party or has any affiliations at all with religion?

    BTW Steve, are you a CCCP member at all?, if so what is your role?

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  28. dubya (217 comments) says:

    Scott, the Conservatives have already made it clear they don’t support free markets. Confiscating land under the Public Works Act because owners haven’t developed it, is not free market.

    I can only assume Colin Craig knows that another soulless North Shore beige brick and tile subdivision is bound to attract constituents who want government so small it can fit in your bedroom. Who can blame him for being self interested!

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  29. big bruv (13,458 comments) says:

    gazzmaniac

    Pay Bedwetter no heed. As usual he is telling lies. This is not a battle between the evils of Islam and the evils of Christianity.

    Bedwetter is simply trying to scare the moronic folk he associates with into voting for the religious fundies, the same religious fundies who think that stealing peoples land is a good idea.

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  30. gazzmaniac (2,319 comments) says:

    bb – I don’t usually pay Reddy any heed. He is as bad as a socialist with his demands for the state to run people’s lives, and the funny thing is he doesn’t realise how hypocritical he is.

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  31. Bob (491 comments) says:

    I don’t think the poll figures mean a lot in themselves. At this stage it is the trends which count. There is very little movement for Labour with the combined Right vote holding. Cunliffe is not taking a bite out of Key. I watched some of parliamentary question time expecting fireworks between Cunliffe and Key. I was surprised and a little disappointed to see Key brush him off like a fly on his shoulder.

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  32. gazzmaniac (2,319 comments) says:

    Steve Taylor

    I would argue that no Party is “non-theistic” in the strict sense of the term. Culture, Environment, or even money can attract “worship”.

    Culture, the environment, and money are all real, tangible things and can be measured and studied. God/Allah/Jehova is not tangible and is not real except in the minds of some people.

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  33. kowtow (7,876 comments) says:

    But you Nat fan boyz who knock the Conservatives for not supporting the “free market” are happy for taxpayers to still be majority share holders of partially sold state assets?

    And the money from said partial sale to be ploughed back into welfare projects.

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  34. gazzmaniac (2,319 comments) says:

    kowtow I would prefer it if they had sold them in their entireity.

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  35. kowtow (7,876 comments) says:

    gazzmaniac

    A public holiday at Christmas and Easter is tangible. God may not be but our Christian heritage and culture is.So is our flag with the cross and saltires of the Home country patron saints.So is the crown topped with a Christian cross.

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  36. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Hi Pete: so just so I am clear in understanding your argument: the acclaimed faith affiliation of a person, by default becomes the brand of an entire political party – is this correct?

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  37. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Hi Big Bruv: what I guess I’m saying is that in the absence of evidence, I’m curious as to the validity and reliability of the claim you are making. I don’t tend to trade in opinion, hence my enquiry.

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  38. Changeiscoming (154 comments) says:

    Well this is just extrodinary. DPF issues a poll result which on the last line briefly mentions the Conservatives. And every single comment bar none is about the Conservatives (either for or against).

    To say they aren’t making an impact on the NZ political scene would be hugely naive.

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  39. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Hi Gazzmaniac: Goodness, I haven’t travelled across, or become intimate with every nuance of the Universe, so I am unable to respond to this comment, as I just don’t know for sure.

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  40. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Bob: I couldn’t agree more – one swallow does not make a summer – but it sure does look as if the sun is peeking over the horizon for the Conservative Party, doesn’t it?

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  41. kowtow (7,876 comments) says:

    gazzmann says

    “Religion is just another way for people in power to control the masses.”

    Straight from Marx.

    Can anyone show how people in power in any western democracy today use religion to control us so stupid people?

    Other than in such enlightened places as Saudi A or some other sandy shit hole or marxist utopis like China I was under the impression we were all free to chose religion or otherwise, or would freedom loving folk like gazz and bigot bruv seek to remove that choice and freedom? I get the impression they would.

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  42. Don the Kiwi (1,635 comments) says:

    “That is a blatant lie.”

    big bruv.

    I will not respond according to my instinct. You accuse me of being a blatant liar. If you can come up with the evidence to support your claim, I will change my mind.

    However – if you can’t, I will respond accordingly.

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  43. smttc (710 comments) says:

    John Key needs to deal to NZ First. There is a lot of floating vote right there. If he would rule out working with NZ First then a lot of the people who voted for them last time will float back to National. They do not want to waste their vote. Why does the man wait? I say the sooner he sends that signal the better. It might even help him over time in determining whether he has to deal with CCCP.

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  44. Pete George (23,168 comments) says:

    Steve, the Kiwi Party was “a conservative Christian-based political party” which folded into the Conservative party with Kiwi party leader, deputy leader and president plus other ex-members put on the Conservative Party 2011 list. This gave the Conservative Party a strong “conservative Christian-based” influence.

    Unless Colin Craig calls all the shots?

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  45. kowtow (7,876 comments) says:

    change is coming

    the reaction from the anti Christian secular Taliban here is telling.

    another bigot,nasska has declared he’d vote Green rather than see a Conservative in power.Loons.

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  46. Fisiani (981 comments) says:

    People forget about a DotCom Party. It will garner votes from the Greens and Labour and NZF if it reaches 4.9% it will deliver National another 2.4% in wasted votes. Watch out for other new minor parties being formed. If they fail to get 5% then National gets 46% of their votes.

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  47. gazzmaniac (2,319 comments) says:

    kowtow:

    Other than in such enlightened places as Saudi A or some other sandy shit hole or marxist utopis like China I was under the impression we were all free to chose religion or otherwise, or would freedom loving folk like gazz and bigot bruv seek to remove that choice and freedom? I get the impression they would.

    Did you not read my earlier comment directed at Redbaiter? In case you didn’t, here is the relevant bit:

    Red, I don’t give a shit whether people believe in a god or not. I do care if politicians use religion to try and control people’s lives, just like I care when politicians use socialism or climate change to try and control people’s lives.

    kowtow again:

    A public holiday at Christmas and Easter is tangible. God may not be but our Christian heritage and culture is.So is our flag with the cross and saltires of the Home country patron saints.So is the crown topped with a Christian cross.

    I am not disputing that, and I am happy to take the public holidays.
    I am saying that I don’t think a country should be run in accordance with an interpretation of what some people wrote about their imaginary friend 4000 years ago.

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  48. davidp (3,551 comments) says:

    I’m pleased with any poll that has NZ First below 5%. 4.2% is okay, but it should be slightly higher in order to maximise the wasted idiot bigot vote.

    I really don’t understand the Conservatives. They say they’re in favour of small government, but oppose asset sales and want to essentially confiscate privately owned land. This isn’t philosophically consistent, and sounds as if they’re just saying things they think will be popular. Which means they’ll be battling Cunliffe for the impractical sound-bite policy vote.

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  49. Scott (1,730 comments) says:

    Dubya, I agree the free markets conservatives could be a bit more free market. But Colin Craig is a business man and an entrepreneur so he will generally head in the right direction. And socially responsible policy that reflects traditional morals would be very welcome in my view.

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  50. geoff3012 (56 comments) says:

    The big invisble man in the sky…..I thought it was a fairy tale since i was 6! I don’t particulary mind God botherers as such but find them more hypocritical than the Liabour Party

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  51. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Pete: Your answer doesn’t address my question: does the acclaimed faith affiliation of a person, by default become the brand of an entire political party? Because if you wish to be consistent, the Chinese New Citizens Party joined up with CPNZ – does this make CPNZ an Asian Party?

    My position on this issue is not complex: if a Party does not refer to themselves as a “Christian” Party – then they aren’t one. Exhibit A = those Parties that do, and are.

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  52. Mobile Michael (429 comments) says:

    Wayne Mapp has hit the nail on the head. People realise that Labour is only going to hold power when beholden to the Greens. And while the Greens have a good environmental brand, the economic stuff scares the bejesus out of 60% of the country.

    As for the CCCP, they’re NZ First without the charisma. Just a bunch of populist slogans and feel good speeches, but substantial policy amounts to being nothing.

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  53. Redbaiter (7,862 comments) says:

    Gazza hardly anything you have said about me or Christans or the Conservative Party has any basis in fact. As Kowtow says, its all delusional Marxist crap the same kind of worthless baseless crap that Bigot Bruv spouts. As a geo who is paid on his ability to objectively analyze and rationalize you must be struggling to make the grade.

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  54. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Hi Mobile Michael: I haven’t had the opportunity to read any 2014 substantial policy from any party – might be a bit early yet I suppose.

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  55. gazzmaniac (2,319 comments) says:

    As long as you think so Red.

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  56. Pete George (23,168 comments) says:

    Steve, a party isn’t perceived as what it claims to be or claims not to be or doesn’t claim to be, it is perceived as how it appears to be. You can say you are ‘A’ as much as you like, but that doesn’t mean you won’t be seen with a significant X.

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  57. Scott (1,730 comments) says:

    The media has been quick to label the conservatives a christian party. Presumably to denigrate them as “fundamentalist” or some other pejorative term. This is what the media does. Left wing politicians are almost never labelled as such. Much more common is the labelling of conservative politicians as “hard right extremists”.
    This is what they are doing to the conservatives. The media on the other hand would never label the Greens as the “new age pagan Green party” even though there are many new age pagans in that party. They would never label Labour as the “hard left, homosexual atheist party” even though it contains many hard leftists, many atheists and many many gays.
    To be consistent the media need to drop the label “christian conservatives” and call them simply “conservatives”.

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  58. gazzmaniac (2,319 comments) says:

    If I was the media, I would label the Greens as loopy nutjobs.

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  59. kowtow (7,876 comments) says:

    gazz

    I don’t see where the country is being run on any 4000 year old guff.

    Can you point to any specifics?

    Places like Saudi Arabia and Iran yes but Aotearoa?

    I fear your clear prejudice is making you delusional,like bigot bruv.

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  60. gazzmaniac (2,319 comments) says:

    I never said it currently is, I said it shouldn’t be.

    You’re reading something into my comments that isn’t there.

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  61. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Hi Pete, I guess that I regard reality as reality, as opposed to perception, which isn’t. The reality is that the Conservative Party of New Zealand is not a Christian party, and no amount of you or others perceiving it to be, or saying that it is, makes it so.

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  62. dubya (217 comments) says:

    “Dubya, I agree the free markets conservatives could be a bit more free market. But Colin Craig is a business man and an entrepreneur so he will generally head in the right direction. And socially responsible policy that reflects traditional morals would be very welcome in my view.”

    Scott, Jim Anderton is a wealthy businessman and entrepreneur. It’s no reason to trust someone blindly!

    I prefer Craig to Winston and the Greens. But someone who makes statements like ” it’s not intelligent to pretend that homosexual relationships are normal” doesn’t have morals, he’s just a bigoted asswipe.

    It’ll be a sad day if Craig is JK’s only hope of staying in power – here’s hoping for a landslide to National.

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  63. kowtow (7,876 comments) says:

    then gazz you’ve nothing to get your panties in a twist over.

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  64. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Hi Scott, Yes, I remember an internal memo that Cameron Slater released a wee while back that outlined a “hit campaign” by the NZ Herald – very, very revealing as to the corporate mind-set of the organisation and staff, and somewhat indicative of the absence of journalistic ethics.

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  65. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Dubya: No, I don’t believe in blind trust either: nor blind vitriol. I’m curious – have you met Colin Craig?

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  66. iMP (2,315 comments) says:

    Big Bruv, your raving anti-Christian fundamentalism is becoming a worn drum. EVERYONE in the Cabinet is already a Minister. How Churchy is that?! GASP. BB heart-attack.

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  67. Pete George (23,168 comments) says:

    I didn’t say it was a Christian Party Steve. I said it was perceived as having a significant Christian element. That is via people who are involved with the party and also via policy positions.

    The Green party is seen as environment and socialist. The Mana Party is seen as representing Maori and communist. Labour is union and gay and professional politicians. The Conservative Party is seen as representing Christian and….and Colin Craig. Is there anything else you can add to that?

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  68. dubya (217 comments) says:

    @Steve Taylor

    I haven’t met Colin – like most politicians. I haven’t met John Key either but I’ve seen enough to think he’s the best we’ve had in a long time, likewise I’ve seen enough of Russel Norman to think he needs deporting immediately.

    Colin lost me at land confiscations and informing my boyfriend and I that our relationship is an aberration. But, if you think meeting him in person could change my mind (or better yet, I could change his) then let’s set it up – it’ll be fun if anything.

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  69. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Pete, you said “The Conservative Party had a strong tie to religious fundamentalism in the 2011 election”: to my mind, this comes about as close as one can to saying “The Conservative Party is a Christian Party” without actually saying “The Conservative Party is a Christian Party”.

    The Green Party is the Green Party; the Mana Party is the Mana Party; the Labour Party is the Labour Party; the Conservative Party is the Conservative Party.

    It’s the “adding to” stuff that actually seems to be confusing the issue :)

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  70. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Hi Dubya – even Louisa Wall reportedly ended up liking the bloke, despite their differences. I don’t know whose mind might be changed about what, but I do know that you can converse with Colin Craig directly at http://www.conservativeparty.co.nz

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  71. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Dubya: Just re-read your post: Completely agree on the Russell Norman “exit strategy” option you raise.

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  72. dubya (217 comments) says:

    @Steve Taylor

    I don’t doubt Colin is an amiable guy who is good to his family and friends. My issue is that I think some of his economic policies and his stance on gay people are plain awful. Which is a shame, because even though the Bible is unfortunately so often used to attack groups of people, I think there might be some place for true, compassionate Christian values in NZ politics.

    Thanks for the link – I might chuck him an email – vitriol free, of course ;)

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  73. Meatloaf (152 comments) says:

    The Focus NZ Party has got the 500 it needs to be a party. They will be a competitive force against the conservatives. They have a plan with their policies. For instance, they have a plan in regards to how to bring about affordable housing. They are new, but they will be a competitive force with the conservatives.

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  74. RRM (9,606 comments) says:

    Wait for Kolun Kwaig to ruin it with some brain fart like his timeless “kiwi women are dirty sluts with no morals” last time…

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  75. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Hi Meatloaf: I like maths – it’s a pure language. I haven’t heard of the Focus NZ Party, but I am curious about one thing: how does a Party of 500 members compete with a Party of 5300 members and supporters, and counting?

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  76. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Hi RRM: Staying with the maths, 2.8% is 2.2% away from 5%. So potentially, Mr Craig could “offend” 95% of the population, and still make it to Parliament. The amusing thing about offence is that no-one can actually be offended without their consent to be so.

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  77. Pete George (23,168 comments) says:

    how does a Party of 500 members compete with a Party of 5300 members and supporters, and counting?

    There’s many ways, including having a more electable leader, having a better range of policies, attracting more media attention.

    I doubt NZ First will have many thousands of members (unless they do some trickery with Grey Power membership) but I’m sure Winston Peters will have a good crack at competing with the Conservative Party.

    Number of members can indicated some level of support but it’s votes that are what are required. A party only needs 500 members.

    The number of (millions of) dollars put into a party and it’s campaigning probably have far more influence on votes than the number of members.

    Most parties don’t quote their member count, so they mustn’t regard it as a statistic that will win them votes.

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  78. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Hi Pete, the host of this site may well disagree with your premise regarding money having influence on votes: http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2012/03/party_spending_in_2011.html

    You don’t list “name recognition” as a feature, yet I would assume that this would be Peter Dunne’s “killer blow” in Ohariu?

    Given that “feet on the ground” is a fairly significant indicator of vote procurement success, I’m surprised that more Parties don’t publish their membership figures – unless doing so might be an exercise in embarrassment?

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  79. Than (439 comments) says:

    Hi Meatloaf: I like maths – it’s a pure language. I haven’t heard of the Focus NZ Party, but I am curious about one thing: how does a Party of 500 members compete with a Party of 5300 members and supporters, and counting?

    Well, zero seats is equal to zero seats, so I’d say they’re equivalent.

    Claiming the Conservatives can reach 5% is unrealistic. The best ever result for a minor party campaigning on a socially conservative platform is 4.3% (the Christian Coalition in 1996) and NZ society has grown significantly more liberal in the 17 years since then. The only way the Conservatives get into parliament is if National actively gifts them an electorate seat. If Colin Craig says something to offend 95% of New Zealanders (or even just 10-20%) then National would be damaged by association and they’d be stupid not to pull their support.

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  80. Pete George (23,168 comments) says:

    Yes Steve, name recognition is a very important factor in politics. What has influenced Colin Craig’s name recognition most, the money he has put into his campaigns or the number of party members?

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  81. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Hi Than: You know, it was just a few short weeks ago that people were saying that the Conservatives couldn’t (fill in the blank about what they “couldn’t” do) but then they go and over double their vote in the latest TNS Poll last night to nearly 3%.

    Now me, I don’t have the gift of foresight, so I don’t know for sure what will actually happen.

    But I’m with Bob when he comments on trends being a more reliable indicator than 1 Poll.

    So, what I am going to do is observe the trends of the Parties (including Focus NZ), and see what that observation reveals.

    Perhaps come back to us when your Party features for around 12-14 months on every single Political Poll in the country, as the Conservative Party has, and we can go from there?

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  82. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Hi Pete, my observation is that the single most influential factor in Colin Craig’s name recognition is his willingness to stand up for what he believes in, and the media’s fury with him at daring to do so :)

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  83. Than (439 comments) says:

    For somebody who claims to like trends over single results you are certainly putting a lot of stock in this most recent poll.

    The trend in all polls since 2011 has the Conservatives steady at 1-2%. This poll is an outlier; if the next couple of poll show similar results then you might have somebody to be happy about. Until them you’re just seeing what you want to see.

    As for “my party”, well I don’t really have one but National is the closest fit to my political views. I believe they have featured in all polls for the last 14 months.

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  84. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Hi Than: Ummmm……..over doubling a poll result is pretty significant. I agree with you about what future polls might reveal. The interesting thing about outlier results is if they keep showing up, they quickly head toward the mean and median.

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  85. big bruv (13,458 comments) says:

    ” Colin Craig’s name recognition is his willingness to stand up for what he believes in”

    Yep, it includes

    1. Stealing land from private owners.
    2. Calling NZ females sluts.
    3. The bible.
    4. Big government.
    5. The state deciding who you can have sex with.

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  86. kiwi in america (2,462 comments) says:

    This poll is consistent with the other reputable polls in showing a slight edge for a centre right coalition and Labour’s post leadership contest poll bounce dissipating. All of that free publicity and Cunliffe’s supposed better sure footedness with the media, more focused messaging and left wing positioning has done nothing for Labour. In fact National’s big hitters have only just begun to workover Cunliffe, his domination by the unions, his lurch to then left to staunch the loss of Labour voters to the Greens and the raft of Labour’s populist but unworkable policies.

    I’m not surprised to see a rise in the Conservative vote – National under Key has maintained a very centrist line with right leaning reform in areas that are easy runs on the board (harder on crime and cracking down on welfare abuses and dependency). I feel the Conservatives have got the Christian right’s influence about right – there’s no denying activist Christians are well involved but they are not imposing an overtly Christian policy proscription like what we saw with the Christian Heritage Party back in the 90′s. That said Colin Craig is solid but insipid and I’m afraid announcing a policy forcing those holding land to develop within a time frame is NOT a free market direction and shows a worrying tendency for Colin Craig to indulge in populism given the sensitivity in Auckland over house prices.

    Key would need to ease McCully out of East Coast Bays and onto the list or either not or barely contest the likely Albany/Greenhithe located new electorate to give Colin Craig the cleanest run at an anchor seat.

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  87. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Hi Big Bruv:

    1/ Mr Craig didn’t invent the Public Works Act.
    2/ Where is this stated? I think he said promiscuous. The Durex survey would back him up, I suspect.
    3/ Personal faith does not necessarily denote public policy. No-one is a blank canvas.
    4/ ?
    5/ It does already. Minors are off limits, as are family members, and multiple partnership arrangements.

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  88. Chuck Bird (4,741 comments) says:

    I certainly prefer to see National get in rather than the other lot. However, I would far rather a National led government that got in legitimately without cups of tea. National should have gone along with recommendations from the electoral commission and dropped the threshold to 4% but stop hangers on get in with one electorate seat.

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  89. Pete George (23,168 comments) says:

    Patrick Gower says that they are not counting Act’s Epsom seat in their calculations any more because he doesn’t think they will retain the seat. Too much Banks and party damage.

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  90. ChardonnayGuy (1,170 comments) says:

    Odd, because none of the other recent polls show the Colinistas that high…rogue poll…???

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  91. Pete George (23,168 comments) says:

    In last month’s Roy Morgan the CP were 2.5%, up 2% so it seems like a normal variation probably due to a bit of recent Key publicity.

    In May last year CP debuted on Roy Morgan at 3% and have fluctuated between that and 0.5% since.

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  92. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Hi Chuck: Craig doesn’t strike me as the “cup of tea” kind of person. Key and co will most likely know exactly where they stand with him, and I suspect they will be unlikely to pull any “fast Eddie” tricks on him.

    I believe that one of Craig’s biggest assets is, and will continue to be, those that under-estimate him.

    King of that club at the moment is Cameron Slater :)

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  93. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Hi Pete: With ACT being written off, and UFNZ not even making the graphic on TV…………………………?

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  94. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Hi Chardonnayguy: “Colinistas”: That is bloody clever. Not accurate, but bloody clever nonetheless. Hat tip.

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  95. Pete George (23,168 comments) says:

    Dunne was included in the seats in Parliament count. Craig wasn’t.

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  96. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Hi Pete: I would venture to suggest that Key doing everything in the media except actually pulling up a chair for Craig at the Cabinet table and enquiring “are you comfortable?” is a little more than “a bit of recent Key publicity”.

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  97. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Hi Pete: True. It would be good if they did polling of electoral seats with one member parties alongside the main poll – these assumptions would then have some more validity and reliability.

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  98. Bad__Cat (139 comments) says:

    Steve Taylor (151) Says:

    ” Hi Pete, my observation is that the single most influential factor in Colin Craig’s name recognition is his willingness to ….”
    …. throw millions of dollars at trying to buy a seat in Parliament.

    BTW, Steve, someone asked what connection you had with the CCCP. Did you answer? I must have missed it.

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  99. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (828 comments) says:

    Labour is making great strides forward….on its way to becoming Government in 2014…

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  100. safesally (47 comments) says:

    Hello Sir Cullen’s Sidekick
    Just had to give you a thumbs down; nothing personal.
    The Green/Labour alliance is simply too negative these days. They cannot conceivably disagree with everything this government does but they vote against no matter what.
    I think they are desperate to be the next government and claim the good results of an intelligent and well organised National government.
    David Cunliff’s mouth says one thing and his eyes show something different every time.

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  101. ManuT (45 comments) says:

    I do not know why so many people hate John Key and National, it seems to be in their DNA and unchangeable.
    In my experience these “haters” are usually not sharp at all.
    A+ to this National government and thank you.

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  102. chickadee (16 comments) says:

    David Cunliffe is a chinless wonder…….
    Chickadee out!

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  103. flash2846 (204 comments) says:

    I am iffy about any religious type political party and also iffy about socialist types as well. So that makes it Conservatives on one side verses Greens, Labour and Mana. I am a total atheist but go for it Conservatives.

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  104. pcplod (26 comments) says:

    Looking forward to another National coalition win. They deserve it and the good citizens of New Zealand deserve it. Time to reap what has been sown before we die.
    (Not sure about the spelling but what the heck)

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  105. Steve Taylor (209 comments) says:

    Hi Flash2846: “I am a total atheist but go for it Conservatives”

    You would be in some pretty good company then with a significant percentage of the Conservative Party membership.

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  106. flash2846 (204 comments) says:

    Thanks Steve, I am starting to see this. I really enjoyed Colin Craig’s interview last week on I think it was The Nation; he seems balanced. Very different from say anyone from the greens; they are simply not truthful but the interviewers give them a free pass.
    Have a good night Steve

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