Small on Christchurch East

Vernon Small looks at what will be a good and bad result for the main parties in the Christchurch East by-election:

Dalziel secured 53.54 per cent and Gilmore 36.5 per cent in 2011.

Presuming Labour holds the seat, if Poto Williams gets much less than a 3:2 advantage over National’s Matthew Doocey then Labour and Cunliffe will have reason to worry.

Anything above 53 per cent will look like a fine result for Labour, anything under 50 per cent a relative failure.

If Doocey can attract 40 per cent of the vote National can be well-pleased. Less than 33 per cent and the warning bells will be ringing for 2014.

Looks a fairly reasonable analysis.