Final CIR results

December 19th, 2013 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

The final results are here.

  • Not Vote 54.93%
  • Vote No 30.30%
  • Vote Yes 14.59%
  • Informal Votes 0.14%
  • Invalid Votes 0.05%
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32 Responses to “Final CIR results”

  1. Mobile Michael (413 comments) says:

    Yawn.

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  2. ciaron (1,314 comments) says:

    so… what was the CBF vote?

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  3. Graeme Edgeler (3,267 comments) says:

    so… what was the CBF vote?

    It’s right there, in the first line of the results that DPF provides.

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  4. Tom Jackson (2,458 comments) says:

    I don’t see the “not vote” on the linked page… because it doesn’t matter.

    Don’t throw your toys out of the pram. Your side lost.

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  5. ciaron (1,314 comments) says:

    It’s right there, in the first line of the results that DPF provides.

    So it is. Guess I just CBF looking that hard…

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  6. Graeme Edgeler (3,267 comments) says:

    I don’t see the “not vote” on the linked page… because it doesn’t matter.

    It’s pretty clearly there:

    Voter turnout is 45.07%. Turnout is calculated by taking the total votes cast of 1,368,925 (being total
    valid and invalid votes) as a percentage of the total number of voters enrolled as at 21 November 2013 (3,037,405).

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  7. Tom Jackson (2,458 comments) says:

    It’s pretty clearly there:

    No. They have the percentage that turned out, not the percentage that didn’t turn out.

    David calculated the latter himself and put it at the top of his post no doubt because he’s experiencing severe butthurt over the result (quite why I cannot fathom, since it’s nothing more than a popularity contest).

    The referendum told us nothing we already didn’t know in that the majority of people don’t like the sale of assets for ideological reasons. This should not be surprising because it’s common sense.

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  8. YesWeDid (1,029 comments) says:

    There is nothing to suggest that the people who didn’t vote felt any differently to the people who did vote.

    In fact every political opinion poll samples something like 0.03% of the population and uses that to say how the whole population would vote.

    Here’s an opinion poll that samples 45.07% of the population, I think the margin of error in extrapolating this out to the whole population would be very, very small.

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  9. Cunningham (811 comments) says:

    Tom Jackson (1,922 comments) says:

    “Don’t throw your toys out of the pram. Your side lost.”

    No they won at the last election which Labour called a referendum on asset sales. That was the one to win and Labour got their ass’s handed to them! Most people see this for what it is – a complete waste of time and money.

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  10. rangitoto (193 comments) says:

    @Yeswedid. A poll at least tries to be a random sample whereas this sort of vote – many didn’t vote because it was a pointless exercise. No government has ever taken any notice of CIR’s let alone a GIR.

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  11. Cunningham (811 comments) says:

    Tom Jackson (1,922 comments) says:

    “The referendum told us nothing we already didn’t know in that the majority of people don’t like the sale of assets for ideological reasons. This should not be surprising because it’s common sense.”

    OK then why did those fuckwits waste 9 million dollars of taxpayer money then? Oh that’s right because they were bitter and embarassed at how poorly they did in the last election.

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  12. eszett (2,333 comments) says:

    Tom Jackson (1,922 comments) says:
    December 19th, 2013 at 2:45 pm

    It’s pretty clearly there:

    No. They have the percentage that turned out, not the percentage that didn’t turn out.
    David calculated the latter himself.

    Sorry, but now you are just being a childish smartass.
    Do you think he used a super-secret formula?

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  13. eszett (2,333 comments) says:

    The referendum told us nothing we already didn’t know in that the majority of people don’t like the sale of assets for ideological reasons.

    The majority of the people don’t care one way or the other enough to vote.

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  14. RightNow (6,654 comments) says:

    Less than 1/3 of eligible voters said they are against the partial asset sales.
    That’s all she wrote. The fat lady has sung. Elvis has left the building. Haters gonna hate, crybabies gonna cry. The rest of us have shopping to do.

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  15. RightNow (6,654 comments) says:

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  16. Kleva Kiwi (281 comments) says:

    The result is very telling. Only 30% of the voting population care enough to actually bother to vote.
    Its also a logical conclusion that the 55% who did not vote represent realist who know that this CIR was a joke from the get go and will change nothing, nor mean anything. There is good argument to note that the people who did not turn out either a) do no care or b) support the governments actions.

    The CIF was a terrible waste of money to begin with.
    - It was not a citizens referendum, but a political stunt pushed by Labour and the Greens
    - The questions where misleading and unrepresentative of the scenario. Where was the “support more than 49% sold/less than 49%” etc, or the “sell all government run business/buy more business” etc. Completely loaded CIF as per usual.
    - The mandate was given to the government last election WHERE THEY WON after Labour declared the election was a referendum on the sales program!

    Tom Jackson (1,922 comments) says:

    “Don’t throw your toys out of the pram. Your side lost.”

    Correction, your side lost at the last election!

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  17. Nick R (497 comments) says:

    I love all the posts about how the CIR was a waste of money from people who support the asset sales policy. What has that cost? Quite a lot more than the referendum.

    Personally I am surprised the turnout was as high as it was. People voted despite being told very clearly by the Govt that the referendum would not affect the asset sales.

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  18. Judith (7,582 comments) says:

    Does anyone have the last General Election figures in the same format? It would be interesting to see the percentage of the voting population that didn’t vote, and those that voted for the various parties.

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  19. Judith (7,582 comments) says:

    @ Nick R (399 comments) says:
    December 19th, 2013 at 4:08 pm

    I know many people that decided not to vote because JK said he would not be acting on it anyway. Of course there are those that say it people were against the sales they would have got out there and voted to show JK he was wrong, but that argument can go both ways, JK supporters could have ‘got out there and voted’ to show that JK was right!.

    Personally I think the results were indicative of other surveys, and are a pretty good indication of those for and against the sales.

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  20. Judith (7,582 comments) says:

    @ RightNow (5,977 comments) says:
    December 19th, 2013 at 3:22 pm

    Really? So based on that logic, what percentage of the voters in the last general election vote AGAINST National and JK being Prime Minister or are we not allowed to apply your logic to that question? The sorts of arguments you are using can work both ways and sometimes come back to bite you!

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  21. RightNow (6,654 comments) says:

    “So based on that logic, what percentage of the voters in the last general election vote AGAINST National and JK being Prime Minister”
    About 34% Judith (approx 1 million out of 3 million), applying the same logic.
    Care to try and trip me up dreary? I’ve kept my powder dry for your next question :)

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  22. RightNow (6,654 comments) says:

    Judith, this I think will be the stats you’re after:
    http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2011/partystatus.html

    It doesn’t show how many didn’t vote, but the total electoral roll is about 3 million.

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  23. RightNow (6,654 comments) says:

    Actually total electors on rolls (combined) was 3070847
    http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2011/e9/html/e9_part9_1.html

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  24. RRM (9,441 comments) says:

    The referendum told us nothing we already didn’t know in that the majority of people don’t like the sale of assets for ideological reasons.

    There are four million New Zealanders, about 75% are enrolled voters, about 45% of them bothered to vote onthis, and 67% of 45% of 75% said they want something… that is not a majority, and to say it is a majority is being creative with the truth even by a politician’s standards.

    But then, that’s the problem with labour’s whole approach to this issue.

    It has been couched in weasel words since even before the 2011 election… when NO-ONE in the real world was talking about asset sales, until the Labour party decided it was the pressing issue of our times and something they could campaign on.

    See also: The Clark Govt’s response to the smacking referendum.

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  25. Rick Rowling (801 comments) says:

    YesWeDid (975 comments) says:

    There is nothing to suggest that the people who didn’t vote felt any differently to the people who did vote.

    Wrong – people who didn’t bother to vote obviously felt less strongly about it than people who did.

    Here’s an opinion poll that samples 45.07% of the population, I think the margin of error in extrapolating this out to the whole population would be very, very small.

    Misleading. The CIR is NOT a valid opinion poll because it is self-selecting, and there was a major marketing effort towards getting response for the “no” vote, with no corresponding effort for the “yes” vote. Add to that the much discussed problems with the wording of the question, and this, like all previous CIRs will rightly be ignored by the government of the day.

    Especially so seeing as the margin on this CIR was much less than most (all?) of the others.

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  26. ross69 (3,652 comments) says:

    There is good argument to note that the people who did not turn out either a) do no care or b) support the governments actions.

    That is the sort of braindead argument put for forward by a Tory. The most likely scenario is c) people who didn’t vote were opposed to asset sales and realised, if they didn’t vote, it would make little difference to the outcome. They were right.

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  27. ross69 (3,652 comments) says:

    I do find it ironic that those whining about the turnout have forgotten that only a third of voters voted for National in 2011.

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  28. BlairM (2,286 comments) says:

    The Right needs to wake up and take notice of this result, though it confirms what we already know: The public do not like publicly owned assets sold off when there is nothing in it for them personally. It’s nothing short of stealing.

    I stand by what I said here: http://blairmulholland.wordpress.com/2012/08/01/stop-these-left-wing-asset-sales/

    What has happened is that the Right has taken a very good principle – that governments should hold no interest in commercial enterprise – and turned it into a very bad idea – that governments should simply sell off those assets already paid for by the sweat and blood of taxpayers, then instead of distributing the proceeds, throw them into the gaping maw of the consolidated fund. It’s become a blind ideological goal that ends up with people feeling (rightly in my opinion) that they have been ripped off.

    You can’t laugh off or fudge this result. It is very real and reflects real public sentiment. Key and National are in government in spite of this policy, not because of it. They spent political capital on this timid nonsense, and I pray that they are not caught short when it’s time to pay up next year.

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  29. YesWeDid (1,029 comments) says:

    @Rick Rowling and others.

    In February 2012 3 News published a poll that had 62% against asset sales and 35% for asset sales with 3.5% undecided, this is very similar to the CIR result.

    So to suggest that the 54% who didn’t vote in the CIR are either don’t care or support the sales is really just ignorant or wishful thinking.

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  30. YesWeDid (1,029 comments) says:

    RPM – ‘The Clark Govt’s response to the smacking referendum’.

    Do people really need reminding that John Key was the PM when the smacking referendum took place? The smacking referendum was in August 2009, Key won the November 2008 election.

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  31. RightNow (6,654 comments) says:

    “So to suggest that the 54% who didn’t vote in the CIR are either don’t care or…”

    I actually do believe there really are that many people in NZ who just don’t give a shit either way. Call them undecideds if it helps you sleep better.

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  32. RRM (9,441 comments) says:

    BlairM – that is an extremely good point. One of very few things I’ve read on here that I really wish I could vote up more than once!

    Yes We Did – I stand corrected then.
    I must have been thinking of all the left political commentators who insisted the result of the smacking CIR was “wrong” and should be ignored… many of whom are doubtless now demanding Key heed the “result” of this referendum! ;-)

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