My prediction is for National to govern alone. No major party has governed alone so far but MMP is only ten minutes old. This election is for National to lose!
Mana will f*** it up for the Greens
The Greens will f*** it up for Labour
Cunliffe will f*** it up for himself and die in the debates
Winston looks pretty bloody rough (saw him last week)
ACT is gone surely
CCCP will get destroyed by the media
I think National governing alone is one of the least likely outcomes, there is an electoral resistance to single party rule as was shown last election where they had polled >50% leading up to the election but then dropped below when it counted.
Political parties aren’t trusted enough. And National has done enough wrong to also make it very unlikely.
So Prof Chris Turney and his team of climate scientists are still stuck in Antarctic sea ice, and are now going to be rescued by helicopter because ships can’t reach them. Instead of issuing self-justifying statements, why can they simply not admit that they MIGHT have been wrong about polar ice melts?
Chris Turney, a professor of climate change at Australia’s University of New South Wales, said it was “silly” to suggest he and 73 others aboard the MV Akademic Shokalskiy were trapped in ice they’d sought to prove had melted.
“We’re stuck in our own experiment,” the Australasian Antarctic Expedition said in a statement. We … are now ourselves trapped by ice surrounding our ship.
“Sea ice is disappearing due to climate change, but here ice is building up,” the Australasian Antarctic Expedition said in a statement.
“Solar activity is declining very fast at the moment,” Mike Lockwood, a professor of space environmental physics at Britain’s Reading University, said, “we estimate faster than at any time in the last 9,300 years.”
Lockwood and colleagues are reassessing the chances of this decline’s becoming the first “grand solar minimum” in four centuries. During a grand minimum, the normal 11-year solar cycle is suppressed and the sun has virtually no sunspots for several decades. This summer should have seen an increase in the number of sunspots, but it didn’t happen.
We’ll definatly here this from the Marxists in election year:
“……..In the early 1990s, a team of researchers decided to follow about 40 volunteer families – some poor, some middle class, some rich – during the first three years of their new children’s lives. Every month, the researchers recorded an hour of sound from the families’ homes. Later in the lab, the team listened back and painstakingly tallied up the total number of words spoken in each household.
What they found came to be known as the “word gap.” It turned out, by the age of 3, children born into low-income families heard roughly 30 million fewer words than their more affluent peers.
Now that’s a real shocker. It turns out that “rich” people tend to be better parents than “low income” people. They are smarter, have better vocabularies, and take great care to enrich the environment in which their children grow up. That’s why their kids do better in school, have a better work ethic, and in turn become “richer” than kids with negligent parents who park their kids in front of the boob tube while they party.
Let me add some caveats. The real gap is not between rich and poor, but between smart and caring, and stupid and indolent. The former qualities tend to produce wealth and the latter tend to produce poverty. Not always, in part because some people voluntarily choose satisfying but remunerative occupations, while others just get lucky and find themselves wealthy without much effort or talent. But there is enough of a correlation for the decriers of inequality to find a new cause to champion.
The obviuous lesson to be drawn here is to shame people who are negligent parents into changing their ways, and to discourage such people from having children in the first place. By not, for instance, subsidizing them. But that is not the lesson that will be drawn. Instead, you can count on these “findings” serving as an excuse for state intervention into child-rearing. Count on it.
And if you think bureaucrats will do a better job of enriching vocabularies than loving parents, you have a future in progressive politics.
I love the NBR presentation of the New Year Honours list; “This is a selective list of honours of interest to NBR readers.”
i wonder if the arts and sports people who made the select list are there for their achievements, their contribution to the world or because of the business ramifications of what they were or are involved in.
The extent to which solar cycles influence global temperatures is still debated, as is the question of whether the recent decline has helped cause the current hiatus in the pace of global warming.
“Mike is probably right that there is a chance of the sun returning to a level of activity similar to the Maunder Minimum,” says atmospheric physicist Joanna Haigh of Imperial College London. But she adds: “Even under the most optimistic scenario [of minimal global warming and a deep solar minimum] the solar cooling would only just offset greenhouse gas warming. So no ice age.”
It is more likely that it will simply reduce the warming a little, and set us up for greater warming if it receded.
Obviously the science of warming/climate change is far from settled or certain. It should be and will be debated.
Western media have covered the latest outrages from the religion of peace in Volgograd ,but their peace outreach has become so commonplace in northern Nigeria it gets barely a mention.Perhaps Nigeria should host a world cup or Olympics and then they might warrant a bit more notice.
fliper – I think it’s 50-50ish whether Dunne will hold Ohariu (no Belmont). He’s National’s safest ally, but likely at best to remain a one MP party.
Act are too soon to call, they’ve been written off before. Last election they survived despite a party coup by an already failed Brash and installing a non-Act candidate. If they stand the right person in Epsom they stand a good chance of survival.
Could they get another MP or two? It’s possible, depending on who they attract to stand. Boscawen is a steady and determined driving force.
Craig and his Conservative Party is a big risk for National, they could drag the Nats down or they could take them over the line.
The biggest risk of all would be for National to try and go it alone. If they blow away any potential allies and don’t make a majority they will have stuffed themselves.
Under MMP no party has got >50% and National would break all precedents to do that to win a third term.
The OU CC disease is well known.
You might start your much needed re-education by reading Whale this morning.
Just a sample:
**** “Congratulations, it is the end of 2013 and the 17th year with no global warming.
The Daily Caller celebrates by publishing the 7 setbacks for the warmists this year.
This year has been trying for climate scientists and environmentalists who have been trying hard to explain away the 17-year hiatus in global warming and link “extreme weather” to rising greenhouse gas emissions — despite strong evidence to the contrary. There has been a breakdown in the manmade global warming consensus, and some even argue we are headed for an ice age.
In honor of the 17th year without global warming, The Daily Caller News Foundation has put together seven setbacks for global warming alarmism. Read more »
Manolo, it’s been made very clear that Dunne won’t strike a deal with Labour as they are now, so unless Cunliffe and Labour change substantially there won’t be a deal between them. That’s been pointed out to you a number of times, but you never let facts get in the way of your bull.
A key fact is there is no political option for you to back except your Colin and he’s looking shaky so all you can do is try and bollocks the rest. No wonder you fume with frustration.
It’s been a funny year for those opposing doing anything about increasing emissions. They started by continuing the years false claims that temperatures hadn’t risen at all. Now they seem to have switched to claiming they have risen but plateaued. At least we don’t see the discredited discrediting of the hockey stick produced any more.
When science becomes political plus big business it’s stuffed as science. One day they will fiddle while earth burns. Or freezes.
…it’s been made very clear that Dunne won’t strike a deal with Labour as they are now, so unless Cunliffe and Labour change substantially there won’t be a deal between them.
Of course the real facts are Liarbore won’t deal with Dunne not the other way round but who cares about that, he’s history this year. I’ve heard the Nats are planning on selecting Bubbles the chimp in Ohariu and there’s no way Dunne can compete with that.
When science becomes political plus big business it’s stuffed as science.
Well duh. And what pray tell do you think happened to the warmist “science?”
PG: I wasn’t aware that Peter Dunne has made it clear that he “won’t strike a deal with Labour as they are now”. Can you give me a link, please? Does he outline anywhere what he means by the qualifier “as they are now”?
And are you yourself standing for UF in the 2014 election?
Pay attention everyone: This is what happens when you jail dual national oligarchs–our banksters and politricksters–and tip the scales toward justice by refusing illegal wars and vulture capitalism: They will fight back. Remember Bandar delivered the ultimatum to Putin to make war on Syria or else the Chechens would be unleashed againt Russians. Now, who told him he could do that??? Who runs that? One guess is all you need, I’m sure!
CG – “as they are now” are my words. Dunne on Frontline in November:
If elected Mr Dunne says United Future will work with parties who have “policy compatibility”.
However, Mr Dunne says his party’s opposition to capital gains tax was a non-negotiable, meaning forming government alongside a Labour-Greens coalition unlikely.
“Now you had a discussion earlier, for instance, about a capital gains tax, which the Labour Party proposes, and something we strongly oppose, so I wouldn’t want to be part of a Government that is bringing in policies like that, that I was opposed to.”
So, where else might a Labour/Greens Government turn if it is short of a majority.
UnitedFuture could be another option – given the fact that I have had more experience of working with Labour than anyone else in Parliament – but that would require major policy shifts the coalition would be unlikely to make.
For a start, Labour would need to abandon its plans for a capital gains tax, higher taxes for higher income earners, abolition of the Families Commission and opposition to the establishment of the Game Animal Council.
I haven’t decided what I’m going to do next year but at this stage standing for UF looks unlikely. I didn’t attend their conference nor their candidate forum this year. While I think Dunne stands a chance I don’t think the party looks like getting close to enough support votes. Ironically despite having had a significant increase in membership UF lacks what is needed to make an impression.
Before you dredge up possible wacko conspiracy theories re Volgagrad bombing do note a couple of things:
The Voice of Russia is a State run Media agency much like The Voice of America.
Secondly the US State Department roundly condemned the terrorist attack as reported by VOR,
Meanwhile looking back on 2013 I still derive considerable satisfaction that the Bain Compensation case is still mired in Judicial Review appeals.It’s patently obvious that it’s an appeal that Bain is unlikely to win . This is given the fact that any decision regard to compensation is entirely at the discretion cabinet of which the courts have no jurisdiction . In essence the decision is a political one and it looks as though it is highly likely that National will ride high in the polls winning comfortably in for a third term.
Well done Judith Collins.!
National Climatic Data Center reports on the State of the Climate for November.
November 2013 global temperature highest on record
Year-to-date global temperature ties for fourth highest on record
The globally-averaged temperature for November 2013 was the highest for November since record keeping began in 1880. November 2013 also marks the 37th consecutive November and 345th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average.
Thanks, Pete. From that it seems that no CGT would be the “bottom line” condition – but not necessarily the only one – for Peter Dunne to support a Labour-Greens government. Obviously there would be other issues to be resolved, but that appears the principal barrier.
If Dunne’s committed to avoiding major damage to the NZ economy, including its already fragile investment environment, I would expect Dunne to add abandonment of the daft “NZ Power” policy to his short list of non-negotiables. Surprising, really, that it wasn’t included expressly as a potential game-breaker in his recent Rotary Club speech where matters of much lesser significance were highlighted (e.g. Families Commission, Game Animal Council).
Kiwis don’t pay too much attention to politics unlike us sad buggers. The machinations, the manouevrings, Ohariu etc. That’s why I think the Nats will probably govern alone. That has to be the plan because it’s definitely a possibility.
Things are looking OK for the vast majority of Kiwis, a lot of the loyal useful fools who plan to tick Labour can hopefully be convinced by a bit of calm logic which is what Key and also Joyce specialise in, especially Key in the debates.
A bit of the old extended PPL for the ladies, a drop in petrol tax or something equally useful for the blokes, a bit of gentle scaremongering about a Labour Green coalition and she’s apples mate
I fully expect lashings of ridicule for Christmas next year if I’m utterly wrong!
Secondly the US State Department roundly condemned the terrorist attack as reported by VOR,
So what, stevie? Don’t you know how it works? For example, the US State Department roundly condemned the terrorist attacks on Nicaraguan civilians while their very own Contra forces were attacking them.
CIA Director William Colby, “The CIA owns everyone of any significance in the major media.”
CIA Director, William Casey, “We’ll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false.”
Wrong about polar ice melt for starters. Antarctic ice volume this summer is two standard deviations higher than the 1998-2010 average, so all those threats about whole Pacific islands being swamped when the Antarctic melts are seeming a little alarmist.
There’s no shame in admitting you were wrong (or even that you MIGHT have been wrong, and that more research is needed), but the statement Turney and his people have issued is a real “explaining is losing” one.
I’ve only seen general opposition to CGT from Dunne, but he’s been firmly against for yonks.
A press release in 2009:
Dunne: Mothball capital gains tax idea once and for all
A capital gains tax would be inefficient and distortionary and is never going to happen, Revenue Minister and UnitedFuture leader Peter Dunne said today.
“It’s a hoary old chestnut and it’s time it was put to rest once and for all – no government is going to bring it in,” Mr Dunne said.
“The idea of a general capital gains tax has been around since the 1980s but has never gained any real support.
“As I’ve consistently said, it is simply not going anywhere and the time has surely come to bury it because no government will ever implement it, so these periodic discussions on it are a waste of time,” he said.
Mr Dunne said it would be political suicide for any government to implement, and it was time that “the theorists and ideologues understood that”.
“UnitedFuture will have no part of promoting backward-looking, draconian measures – and I certainly will not as Revenue Minister,” he said.
Mr Dunne said there were far better ways to address the issue of housing affordability, including the providing of cheaper land close to cities.
From Parliament in June:
Hon Peter Dunne: Can the Minister confirm that the last official organisation in New Zealand to recommend a capital gains tax was in fact the Brash committee, chaired by Dr Don Brash in 1989, that the Labour Government of the time rejected that report, and that subsequent Governments have also rejected that report?
Hon BILL ENGLISH: I believe that the member is right that the last time a review of the New Zealand tax system recommended a capital gains tax was in the late 1980s under Dr Don Brash, and since then every single review of our tax system has rejected a capital gains tax and every Government has taken that advice.
It’s looking like both Russian bombing jihadists were converts to Islam. First the so-called Black Widow, and now a paramedic –
A former paramedic who converted to Islam and joined a militant cell could be the Volgograd train station suicide bomber according to investigators.
Police now think that Pechonkin, who left to join Dagestani militants in 2011, carried out the devastating attack which killed 17 people on Sunday.
A medical school graduate, his father Nikolai spoke about his conversion: ‘My son changed for the better. He stopped arguing with me, did not drink, went to the mosque. I bought him Halal meat.’
His parents heard he had gone ‘in the forest’ with rebels and made an internet appeal for him to return.
‘Pasha, come back, let your hands be on blood from wounds, injuries, and not from kills, you’re a doctor,’ said his father.
He replied about his parents’ video appeal: ‘It was sad to see your tears, very sad. I didn’t even want to watch. I thought it would weaken me. I came here so Allah would be pleased with me, to earn my way to paradise.’
His parents travelled to Dagestan, hoping to find their son and rescue him from the militants they believe indoctrinated him.
The Moscow Times reported that his mother said: ‘Imagine that somebody were to kill your parents, how would that make you feel? Why are you turning children into orphans?’
Pechyonkin told his parents that he had then decided he would not be swayed.
He said: ‘I didn’t want to watch your appeal, I thought that it would weaken me, that it would make me softer.’
He added: ‘Why should we follow those Christian commandments, when Allah, may he be glorified, urges us to fight those kafirs [unbelievers].
Egyptian authorities have had four members of the Al Jazeera television network arrested for ties to the Muslim Brotherhood.
CAIRO (AP) — Egypt’s Interior Ministry says security forces have arrested journalists working for the Qatari-based Al-Jazeera network over alleged links to the Muslim Brotherhood, the leading Islamist group that was last week branded as a “terrorist” organization.
The network said Monday that four of its Cairo team – correspondent Peter Greste, producers Mohamed Fahmy and Baher Mohamed, and cameraman Mohamed Fawzy – are in custody since Sunday night.
This is no surprise of course. 22 Al Jazeera staff members quit in June this year after admitting the network was biased and “airing lies”.
The Qatari-owned media company Al-Jazeera saw 22 members of its staff in Egypt resign on Monday over what they allege was “biased coverage” of the events that unfolded in Cairo last week.
Al-Jazeera correspondent Haggag Salama was among those who resigned, accusing the station of “airing lies and misleading viewers,” Gulf News reported Monday.
Where and what did Chris Turney assert anything about ‘polar ice melt’?
Antarctic ice volume this summer is two standard deviations higher than the 1998-2010 average
Well considering the annual sea-ice recession peaks in mid-February that’s quite some claim. Do you have a link for that?
so all those threats about whole Pacific islands being swamped when the Antarctic melts are seeming a little alarmist
Not that Tuney is recorded as saying any such thing as far as I know, if the sea rises say, half a meter in the next century or so, we will see the low lying atolls get swamped. Just because it won’t happen tomorrow doesn’t mean it isn’t a problem.
Meanwhile, Iran is building a new generation of centrifuges that will allow it to manufacture uranium more quickly.
President Obama faced mounting bipartisan pressure on Friday to drop his resistance to an Iran sanctions bill after Tehran announced a new generation of equipment to enrich uranium — a move the Israelis claimed was further proof the regime seeks nuclear weapons.
One of the president’s top Democratic allies is leading the charge for Congress to pass sanctions legislation, despite the president’s pleas to stand down. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez, D-N.J., told Fox News that the “Iranians are showing their true intentions” with their latest announcement.
“If you’re talking about producing more advanced centrifuges that are only used to enrich uranium at a quicker rate … the only purposes of that and the only reason you won’t give us access to [a military research facility] is because you’re really not thinking about nuclear power for domestic energy — you’re thinking about nuclear power for nuclear weapons,” he said.
Menendez was reacting after Iran’s nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi said late Thursday that the country is building a new generation of centrifuges for uranium enrichment. He said the system still needs further tests before the centrifuges can be mass produced. His comments appeared aimed at countering hard-liner criticism by showing the nuclear program is moving ahead and has not been halted by the accord. At the same time, the government was walking a fine line under the terms of the deal.
Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood movement has signed a pact with the al-Qaeda-affiliated radical Salafi organization Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis, which claimed responsibility last week for a terror attack in the city of Mansoura, security sources told the London-based Arabic-language al-Sharq al-Awsat newspaper.
According to the sources, the Muslim Brotherhood has an alliance with another al-Qaeda-affiliated organization. Meanwhile, senior Muslim Brotherhood member Ibrahim Al-Sayed said the Egyptian government’s decision to declare the movement a terror organization was meaningless and would not harm the movement. (Roi Kais)
A capital gains tax would be inefficient and distortionary and is never going to happen
Well Dunne appears to be out of step with the rest of the world on that score. Does he know better or is he simply afraid of losing votes? (same accusation applies to all the other pussy politicians out there including the architects of Labour’s watered down CGT)
Makes perfect sense to me to implement a non-exclusive CGT whilst redistributing the tax burden without increasing it overall to provide fairer incentive to invest in more productive areas of the economy other than real estate.
Yeah, for all her mealy mouthed religiousity you can imagine the unanimity of outrage from Josie Pagani and David Farrar if an archbishop said that he “could think of no better use for church property”after a rioting mob ripped up his fence pailings to smash bank windows and attack police in Queen Street.
‘It’s patently obvious that it’s an appeal that Bain is unlikely to win’
‘patently obvious’ just like it was ‘patently obvious’ that the PC would ‘not’ quash the conviction, the retrial ‘would’ find him ‘guilty’, any overseas judge reviewing the evidence would also ‘obviously’ find him guilty on the BOP etc etc.
Remind me how many times you have been right on any of your predictions in this case to date?
DB is entitled to due process which is not something that our “tax lawyer/MOJ” understands the concept of.
he could have his own interests influencing his view
I doubt it. I mean, one would imagine Craig would have a lot to lose by introducing such a tax, wouldn’t one. Not everyone is a political whore Pete. I realise that kind of behaviour is rampant in your political role model, but not everyone has that sort of convenient morality.
The Director General of the Saudi Intelligence Service Prince Bandar Bin Sultan is continuing to control all the Middle East and has Putin over a barrel.
He warned Putin over the Sochi Games to do what he was told in Syria (including the use of chemicals).
If Putin does not do his wishes he will (has) unleashed the Chechen, and Stan Moslems against Russia.
Bandar is still very much in control of the Sochi games, and all the other Middle East problems.
His Saudi money is readily available to all who wish to continue the Middle East foment.
It has been said the Bandar is arguably one of the most dangerous men on the planet today.
Thanks Fletch, not that either of the two articles addresses the points I made but lets ignore that for the moment.
Yes Antarctic sea-ice has been trending up seasonally which is a bit of a puzzle (and the explanations complicated) considering the rise in temperature, but as it nearly all melts in summer it is not a factor in long term sea level rise. The permanent land ice-cap however is steadily shrinking: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2006-03/uoca-ais022806.php
As for the Arctic, well it’s hardly surprising it grew 29% year on year considering its extent was the lowest ever recorded in 2012. It’s like saying a guy who lost a million bucks is doing well having regained 50 grand.
Re your post yesterday about National Radio and who listens – heaps apparently. More than the number one station in any given market I’m told, by quite a margin. They (and Concert) are listed as ‘other’ which combined make up almost twice ZB’s audience in Auckland. There will be other minnows in there but they will be bugger all.
According to my mate there that you couldn’t change National Radio without upsetting a whole lot of NZers, which is why this edifice from yesteryear keeps getting its massive funding year on year. They went completely spastic when National froze its funding, from memory. That’s about the most you could ever hope for, cheers
Reid. Sorry you posted them therefore the onus is on you to back them up.!
Not if I don’t give a damn about what you think about it stephie. Secondly all you need to do is type it into google. Thirdly like I said, use it as an opportunity to educate yourself, you seem to need it: e.g. your response to Andrei… Have fun.
Now, now…..let’s not finish off the year on an abusive note Harriet. I’m sure that RichardX appreciates the difficulty of finding good sub editors, proofreaders or even copies of spellcheck” in darkest Queensland.
In any case, the gist of your 8.40am didn’t escape us. Intelligent parents DO give a child an edge in the development of word skills & IQ is usually hereditary but never fear. Provided that your good wife has a doctorate in mathematics or medicine there’s a good chance that if you add your IQ & hers & divide by two the answer will be at least 100….possibly more.
“As for the Arctic, well it’s hardly surprising it grew 29% year on year considering its extent was the lowest ever recorded in 2012”
How is it “hardly surprising”, given that it flatly contradicts the global warming alarmists?
Many were the predictions that the Arctic would be ice free this year. Instead it is at normal levels.
Finally, let’s also note that total sea ice is very nearly at record high levels. “There is a good chance that there will be more sea ice on Earth on January 1, than ever measured before on that date”:
Pete – “The left should not be defined by political aggression, intolerance and bullying;”
The only problem is, that it usually is – Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot, Hitler, Kim Jong Il,….
Add to that Ethan Krupp (also known as Pajama Boy [US Spelling]):
“I am a Liberal Fuck,” Krupp wrote in one post. “A Liberal Fuck is not a Democrat, but rather someone who combines political data and theory, extreme leftist views and sarcasm to win any argument while make the opponents feel terrible about themselves. I won every argument but one.”
A guy went to a travel agent and tried to book a two week
cruise for himself and his girlfriend. The travel agent said
that all the ships were booked up and things were very tight,
but that he would see what he could do. A couple of days later,
the travel agent phoned and said he could now get them onto
a three day cruise.
The guy agreed and went to the chemist to buy three Dramamine
and three condoms.
Next day, the agent called back and said that he now could
book a five day cruise. The guy said, “I’ll take it,” and
returned to the same pharmacy to buy two more Dramamine
and two more condoms. The following day, the travel agent
called yet again and said he could now book an eight day
cruise. The guy agreed, and went back to the chemist.
He asked for three more Dramamine and three more condoms.
The pharmacist looked sympathetically at him and said, “Look,
if it makes you sea-sick, why don’t you try it with her on top?”
In the end there was only one way I could bring in the new year. Running.
Started at 8:10pm. 42.3kms. 3:51’45″. It turned 2014 with 300 metres to go and I finished at 12:02am and 00 seconds.
Apart from the start time there’s no way I could plan that and in fact with 10kms to go I thought I might sneak home before midnight. Dreaming !! Legs were fast turning to stone after that prediction.
Six marathons in 2013, five sub four efforts and a 4:09’24″, two sub four hour efforts within six days of each other. It’s over two hours later and I’m now moving about again without any big problems. Not bad for an ordinary no-one.
The worst part was only just beating the time dressed as Santa on the 25th by 25 seconds. And Santa was ahead after every 5kms until the last 2.3kms. Santa had a jacket and pants, singlet, beard and wig, sofa pillow strapped around middle for ‘fatness’ – ran in 22 degree heat between 11am and 3pm – stopped to walk a lot unlike today’s continuous effort – and Santa smashed it while losing 4.8kg compared to today’s 3kg. And Santa started off weighing 3kg more. Santa even stopped to pose for a picture. How on earth Santa ran in 3:52’10″ and didn’t drop dead I’ll never know. Santa ate up large 4-5 hours before leaving. Maybe nutrition / available energy was the difference.
So long 2013 – I tried to make it a year I won’t forget in a hurry instead of just another forgettable lap of the sun.