My 2014 predictions

December 31st, 2013 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

Here’s my 20 political for 2014:

  1. Colin Craig will be a Member of Parliament by the end of 2014
  2. The election will be held in October 2014
  3. Genesis Energy will be sold by May 2014
  4. There will be two new Ministers before the election
  5. At least one electorate Labour MP will be successfully challenged for their party’s nomination (or will withdraw before the vote)
  6. At least two more National MPs will announce they will retire before the election
  7. Brendan Horan will not be an MP by the end of 2014
  8. The 2014 Budget will project a surplus of between $100 million and $250 million for 2014/15.
  9. NZ will not win the election for the UN Security Council
  10. At least two Green MPs will be ranked outside the top 15 on the Green list
  11. The Maori Party will have at least two MPs after the election
  12. Len Brown will go
  13. Hone Harawira will attend less than half the House sitting days in 2014
  14. National will campaign on tax cuts and Labour on tax increases
  15. Jamie Whyte will be elected the Leader of ACT and candidate for Epsom, but ACT will not make it back to Parliament
  16. Peter Dunne will be re-elected MP for Ohariu
  17. NZ First will have fewer MPs after the election, than they got in 2011
  18. A prominent journalist will stand as a candidate for the Kim Dotcom Party
  19. National will both gain and lose electorate seats at the election
  20. After the 2014 election, Parliament will be at least 38% female, up from 34%
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57 Responses to “My 2014 predictions”

  1. duggledog (1,415 comments) says:

    My prediction is that Len Brown won’t go. If he hasn’t now, after all this, then he’s got nothing to lose except battle on as one of NZ’s most despised political figures. Stepping down means no more salary and perks and he needs at least the salary because I’d say it’s the last he’ll ever get.

    Mc Mansions on the fringes of Auckland are expensive to own – especially the extortionate rates he’s done nothing to reduce.

    Hope I’m wrong

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  2. duggledog (1,415 comments) says:

    And – National will campaign on tax cuts… possibly… if things go well… at some point… (which won’t be good enough, people won’t respond to this I reckon)

    Labour will certainly increase taxes for the fabled ‘rich pricks’ of which there are really not many. Remember last time ‘rich’ meant anyone earning over 60k. What a joke.

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  3. Hamish_NZ (45 comments) says:

    If National campaign on tax cuts they’ll be small and at the bottom end of the tax scale to appeal to a wider voter base, and not to appear stingy for the last few years. Something like the first $2,500 of all income is tax free.
    Unless they do something surprising and removt rwt

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  4. Seán (397 comments) says:

    For number 17, I assume you mean “than they got in 2011″….though even less than 2008 would be great.

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  5. Pete George (23,165 comments) says:

    17. NZ First will have fewer MPs after the election, than they got in 2008

    Is that a mistake? It’s difficult to get less than zero.

    If you meant 2011 then it’s appropriately cautious. Never rule out Winston but it’s hard to see NZF growing.

    18. A prominent journalist will stand as a candidate for the Kim Dotcom Party

    Interesting. A big call? Or just fishing for feedback?

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  6. Liberty (245 comments) says:

    ” Colin Craig will be a Member of Parliament by the end of 2014″

    Isn’t democracy wonderful in the cheap seats we have racist bigots and luddites with the possibility they are to be joined with a chemtrail conspirator.

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  7. Joanne (177 comments) says:

    I dearly and prayerfully hope you are wrong about number one.

    And I hope you are right about Whyte being elected leader of ACT and wrong about him not getting into Parliament. He seems an intelligent person to have in the debating chamber. He is impressive. (number 15).

    I could think of a number of Green MPs I would like listed outside the top 15.

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  8. SPC (5,472 comments) says:

    Interesting, no forecast of the election result.

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  9. Joanne (177 comments) says:

    duggledog

    It won’t be the last salary Len gets. If Labour gets in, they will give him a directorship of some Crown entity so he will hang on for that.

    I’ve said before Len likes the baubles of office too much and sucking on the ratepayer tit.

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  10. SPC (5,472 comments) says:

    National use a right wing party (currently ACT) to incorporate policies they do not want to themselves carry through an election campaign (after the election via a coalition), ACT only falls out of contention if National think they are going to lose and they want to clear the spectrum for a new right wing party in 2017.

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  11. Pete George (23,165 comments) says:

    While Len Brown may still want to hold onto his mayoralty the massive loss of support, the ongoing embarrassment, the lack of respect, the lack of anyone wanting him to do anything mayoral, and probably more revelations, will all bring too much pressure for him to remain.

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  12. Harriet (4,614 comments) says:

    “……1.Colin Craig will be a Member of Parliament by the end of 2014……”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpZ3jPMM5Ac :cool:

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  13. peterwn (3,192 comments) says:

    SPC – Labour has this potential cop-out too, in fact even more so. ACT has only had two of its pet policies incorporated as far as I know – three strikes and charter schools. These policies impact very few people and have not costed much money.

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  14. lazza (362 comments) says:

    And Your 2014 election (seats per party) pick is …. ?

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  15. SPC (5,472 comments) says:

    peterwyn, Labour’s coalition partners are winning their place themselves not being gifted seats like Epsom.

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  16. Longknives (4,624 comments) says:

    I only disagree on a couple-
    Len Brown ain’t going anywhere!
    And ‘perk tripper’ Hone will turn up to less than a third…

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  17. SPC (5,472 comments) says:

    As to the date of the election, apparently the PM indicated it would be before November (most likely October 2014) back in October.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_New_Zealand_general_election

    So the two elections – UNSC new members also in October 2014 and our parliamentary election in the same month …

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  18. Pete George (23,165 comments) says:

    Labour’s coalition partners are winning their place themselves not being gifted seats like Epsom.

    Greens deliberately don’t seek electorate seats. They are showing more signs of trying to help gift Labour electorates – hence their demotion of David Hay for chasing electorate votes, and their moving of Gareth Hughes out of Ohariu.

    NZ First don’t seek electorate seats either. Their only candidate potentially capable of winning a seat in 2011 was Winston Peters and he didn’t strand in an electorate.

    So Labour’s coalition partners haven’t sought to be gifted any seats.

    Whether this is a good approach or not is debatable, Labour have failed in the last two elections. Over that time they have changed from competing head to head with National to being totally reliant on the Greens.

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  19. SPC (5,472 comments) says:

    Of course the election date plan could be subject to an earlier Banks court date and conviction

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  20. SPC (5,472 comments) says:

    Pete, there was a time when a more proud ACT party sought to win 5% of the vote too, before it was reduced to dependency status.

    And remember Anderton’s Sydenham was won pre MMP by New Labour – when the seat and seats were contested – and after MMP Alliance initially won 5% of the vote as well as the electorate seat.

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  21. SPC (5,472 comments) says:

    On conviction Banks loses his seat.

    No by-election needs be held if within 6 months of an election.

    But a government without a workable majority could go to the polls early, as Muldoon did in 1984.

    The government has a workable majority without ACT but becomes dependent on the MP who can then block policy.

    Alternatively there can be a decision to go to a by-election to preserve the governments position. If the MP agrees?

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  22. Michael (898 comments) says:

    Does the Green MP prediction include retirements not yet announced?

    I would think that unless ACT stand a numpty in Epsom they will win there. However, if they don’t get an additional list MP (at least) then they shouldn’t have bothered.

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  23. alwyn (397 comments) says:

    SPC @ 3.35pm.
    Why do you leave out one of the critical factors in the 6 month rule for a by-election?
    After the “within 6 months of an election” you should add the words “and 75% of the MPs pass a resolution that a writ not be issued for a by-election”.
    What on earth does the “If the MP (which I assume means Maori Party) agrees” in the last sentence mean. If the National Party were to want a by-election there would have to be one. All they have to do is to not vote to pass the resolution to avoid one. The Maori party wouldn’t matter.
    The whole question is irrelevant anyway. John Banks will not be found guilty of any offence that would be punishable by a sentence of greater than 2 years imprisonment.

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  24. lolitasbrother (561 comments) says:

    its like I said, Farrar’s predictions show he is a prodigy, but we will not take that too far

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  25. Rowan (1,946 comments) says:

    Don’t believe Len Brown is going anywhere, the timing on his behalf was very good how this scandal all took place just after he had been re-elected.
    Looks like you Jaffas are stuck with him (those of us unfortunate to live in Auckland that is)

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  26. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    When did David Fisher announce his candidacy?

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  27. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    My prediction for 2014

    Rowan will continue to be tedious and ill informed

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  28. tvb (4,234 comments) says:

    That is a pretty good list. I hope you are right about Colin Craig because there is a big gap in our parliament for a ‘conservative’ party. Winston is looking more and more like a spent force and his message on conservative values is muddled. I for one do not support such a party but National needs a partner. As for Len Brown there needs to be another scandal before he will go. He has weathered this one as a strike 2 (the credit card abuse as Mayor of Manukau is strike 1), but strike 3???

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  29. Chinarugby (84 comments) says:

    Brown isn’t going anywhere – nor should he.

    How about a prediction for the general election – why the ommission?

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  30. Longknives (4,624 comments) says:

    “Brown isn’t going anywhere – nor should he”

    Is that you Lenny? (I get the ‘China’ connection….’rugby’ is a bit of a mystery)
    Amazed you found time to stop masturbating in your office and post on Kiwiblog…Kudos!

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  31. SPC (5,472 comments) says:

    alwyn, without ACT, agreement between the MP and National becomes decisive in governing in the lead up to the election, without it National would need the by-election (if they proposed doing anything dependent on having a parliamentary majority).

    The decision to go to a by-election, so as to not be dependent on the MP, indicates a lack of willingness to rely on the MP as a coalition partner and calls into question the future of their working relationship – and that undermines confidence in the continuance of National for another term.

    It also involves helping ACT win the by-election and commits National to again helping them in the general election (when that may not be/have been the preferred choice).

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  32. Reid (16,066 comments) says:

    Peter Dunne will be re-elected MP for Ohariu

    Only if the National candidate – Bubbles the Chimp – has a heart attack and dies the day before the election and the only person who votes is Peter Dunne because everyone else, including Mrs Dunne, are at Bubbles funderal.

    My predictions for 2014 are:
    - Massive market crash in the US
    - Massive earthquake in Wgtn
    - Gays don’t win any gold medals at Sochi but they win a few silver and bronze and the global MSM goes nuts in adulation and declares them ‘the best ever Winter games,’ plus the CIA terrorists causes a few deaths
    - By the end of the election campaign, more people hate Cunliffe than any other election-losing Leader of the Opposition in history
    - Hone attempts to shortcut all that tiresome campaign business by obtaining a list of WINZ’s beneficiary database so as to do a mass mailout, but when the GCSB catch him and Dotcom red-handed, Wussell sees the chance to set a precedent for next time so defends Hone against the wascist deniers who are wacistly telling the wightful owner of the countwy what to do. Paula Bennett gets involved and challenges Hone to a wrestling match which becomes the most-watched event in NZ campaign history. Paula wins.

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  33. iMP (2,312 comments) says:

    21. Euthanasia will be re-slotted on the parliamentary agenda by the Labour party after we’ve got past that annoying public expression of democracy smocracy.

    22. The Media will ask Colin Craig what shoe size Bigfoot has while he’s discussing tax policy.

    23. Winston Peters will rediscover Immigration policy and manufacturing.

    24. Hone Harawira will go rabid in Feb. at Waitangi, have a long holiday in SA, and then go rabid again midyear about whities just prior to the election.

    25. David Cunliffe will publish photos of John Key’s Hawaiian holiday home.

    26. The Pike River miners will spend another year inside the mine.

    27. Hollywood will go biblical and epic after a season of useless movie flops.

    28. The Left will be even more Browned-off by Whaleoil.

    29. DPF will measure 2014 swims in kilometres.

    30. NZ television will be taken off air altogether and placed in an induced coma while medics search for brain-activity.

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  34. Manolo (13,514 comments) says:

    21. Peter Dunne will become Minister of Revenue regardless of which political party wins the election.

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  35. Steve (North Shore) (4,517 comments) says:

    Longknives @ 3.12
    Anyone who thinks Hone will turn up for less than half, or even less than 1/3 is dreaming (sorry)
    Moari are say 12% of the population so why should that racist prick turn up for more than 12% of Parliment?
    But hey him and the Moari supporters will turn up for well over 80% of the anti Govt protests. His brain does not work well

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  36. MH (674 comments) says:

    Nelson Mandela will be found alive as foretold by interpreter.

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  37. nasska (10,834 comments) says:

    My prediction:

    First, you must prepare to leave the Shire for once and for all, and head for the hills.

    You will be pursued by the mysterious Black Riders, so you must try to take a shortcut through an eerie woodland called the Old Forest, where you will be captured by an evil willow tree and rescued by Tom Bombadil. He will give you shelter and warn you about the evil spirits of the Barrow-downs. You will blunder into trouble with the Barrow-Wights, but Tom will come to your rescue again. You must then loot the Barrows before continuing on your way, taking a short sword left over from the kingdom of Arnor’s ancient war against the Nazguls.

    Your next stop shall be the village of Bree. There, at an inn called The Prancing Pony, you will meet a Man named Strider, whom the innkeeper will describe as a “Ranger.”

    You will have to leave town hurriedly, and Strider shall offer to be your guide to Rivendell. To begin with, you will be suspicious of the Ranger until Butterbur produces a letter from Gandalf, informing you that Strider is actually Aragorn, chieftain of the Dunedain.

    You must then escape from the Black Riders in Bree, and purchase a pony from Bill Ferny, a suspicious character, before heading into the wilderness, taking a roundabout route to Rivendell. At a hill known as Weathertop, you will be ambushed by the Black Riders, and wounded. As you continue toward Rivendell, you will become increasingly ill, due to the evil nature of the dagger with which you were stabbed.

    Elrond, shall send people out looking for you, and one of these, an Elf lord named Glorfindel, will find you. Thanks to Glorfindel’s horse (and some magical help from Elrond and Gandalf), you will be able to get by the Black Riders at the Ford of Bruinen and finally arrive at Elrond’s stronghold, although your Barrow sword will be broken in the confrontation.

    When you awaken in Rivendell, the first person you meet will be Gandalf, who shall chastise you for all the boneheaded moves you’ve made so far.

    You will then be summoned to the Council of Elrond, where Gloin will report that agents of Sauron have been nosing around Erebor looking for you. Legolas will inform you that Gollum, who had been held in the custody of the Wood Elves, has escaped. Boromir will report that he had a dream in which he was told to seek the Sword That Was Broken, as well as “Isuldur’s Bane”. Aragorn will report that now that Isuldur’s Bane has been found, the sword will be reforged. Gandalf will report that the former leader of the White Council, Saruman, has turned traitor and took Gandalf prisoner, although he escaped with some help from Gwaihir, the Lord of the Eagles). After much debate, the Council shall decide that your only chance is to proceed to Mount Doom, which is located right smack dab in the centre of Mordor, the land of Sauron. You will volunteer for this mission.

    Since the mission will rely on stealth more than brute strength, Elrond will decide that a small group shall be sent with you. Gandalf will lead the group; Aragorn and Boromir go on behalf of Men; Gimli, son of Gloin, for the Dwarves; Legolas for the Elves; and Frodo, Sam, Merry, and Pippin for the hobbits. Before you leave, Bilbo will give you his Elvish sword, Sting, and a chain mail shirt made of mithril silver, a very tough, beautiful, and durable metal.

    You will depart from Rivendell, where you shall be prevented from passing over the Misty Mountains, due to the malice of Caradhras, and be pursued by wargs. Gandalf will have no option but to lead you to the gate of Moria. An ancient underground dwarven kingdom, Moria has now fallen into evil. You will encounter a demonic creature of fire and shadow called a Balrog. Gandalf will attempt to hold the monster at bay whilst you flee, and he will fall into a chasm, dragging the Balrog down with him.

    You will now be led by Aragorn, escape from Moria and make your way to Lothlarien, an Elvish kingdom ruled by the Lady Galadriel and her consort, Celeborn. The Elves will give you shelter and supplies. Galadriel will show you and Sam her magic mirror, in which you shall see strange visions. Just before the Fellowship departs, Galadriel will bestow gifts upon you. Among these are Elvish cloaks that provide almost supernatural camouflage. To you, she shall bestow a glass phial in which a glimmer of the light of the Silmarils has been captures. To Sam, she will give a box of dirt.

    You will travel downriver by boat, where you shall learn that you are being followed by Gollum. Finally, you will arrive at the Falls of Rauros, where you must decide either to go directly east to Mordor, or west to Gondor first. You shall realise that it is you duty to go to Mordor, but you will be fearful the welfare of your companions. As you ponder your course of action, you will be approached by Boromir, who shall urge you to go to Minas Tirith, the capital city of Gondor. When you attempt to explain to Boromir that he cannot, he will fall into a rage and attack you, forcing you to escape from him, and depart for Mordor alone. Boromir will regain his senses and inform the rest of the Fellowship that you have disappeared. Everyone will scatter in confusion, except Aragorn, who alone keeps his head. He shall order Boromir to follow Merry and Pippin to keep them safe, then head off to find you. Sam alone will ascertain your intentions, and intercept you just you are casting off to cross the river. You will try and persuade Sam to stay behind, but he insist on going with you to Mordor.

    Aragorn will follow your trail, but will be too late to catch you.

    As you and Sam try to escape the treacherous hills on the east side of the river, you will encounter Gollum. You will succeed in taming him, and force him to guide you to the gate of Mordor. After a harrowing passage of the Dead Marshes, you shall reach the entrance to Mordor. However, the gate will be closed tight and swarming with orcs. Gollum will claim that he knows of a less-guarded entrance to Mordor in the mountain passes to the south, and will offer to take you there. As you continue on your way, Sam shall become increasingly aware of a conflict between the two different parts of Gollum’s personality. The “Smeagol” half shall seem genuinely reformed, but the “Gollum” half will be just as treacherous as ever.

    While passing through Ithilien, a forestland on the borders of Mordor, you and Sam will be captured by the Rangers of Ithilien, led by Faramir, Boromir’s younger brother. When the Rangers capture Gollum, you must bargain for his release. With Faramir’s blessing, you will make you way to the vicinity of Minas Morgul, the city of the Nazgul, the second of the Two Towers. As you pass by, you will see a great host issue forth from the black city and head towards Gondor.

    Gollum’s path will lead you far up into the mountains. You shall come to the entrance of a dark tunnel, which Gollum enters. You and Sam shall muster up your courage and pass within, and will quickly discover that the passage is a black maze and that your guide has deserted you. By using Galadriel’s phial and Sting, you and Sam will escape from the maze, but will be attacked by Shelob, a giant spider. Sam will rush to your aid, but will be ambushed by Gollum. By the time Sam extricates himself from Gollum’s grasp, you will have been poisoned. Sam will take Sting and drive the spider away, but the damage will have been done, and you will be dying.

    Then, and only then, while drawing your last few breaths will you understand what the CCCP & associated Godwhacks are banging on about. :)

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  38. Shazzadude (516 comments) says:

    I agree with most of those predictions, DPF.

    “19. National will both gain and lose electorate seats at the election”

    They’ll win one seat from ACT, win the new seat of Upper Harbour (which they effectively hold anyway), lose 3-6 seats to Labour and one seat to the Conservatives. The other new seat, Kelston, will be won easily by Labour.

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  39. Johnboy (15,410 comments) says:

    I’ll be sad to see Brendan Horan going. He seems to have developed a particular knack of being able to easily piss off Winston! :)

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  40. Rowan (1,946 comments) says:

    Any non political predictions worthy of sharing DPF?

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  41. SPC (5,472 comments) says:

    The reason why forecasting the election result is so difficult is that it depends on coalition arrangements – and these possibilities depend on how many players are in the game.

    Winston Peters has in the past expressed a preference for the largest party forming the coalition government (we have had no second largest parties forming a government) as per 1996 and 2005. This is of the a time before the Greens became by far the second largest party.

    But if NZ First won 5% held balance of power and abstained on confidence and supply rather than decided to back one rival over another, then the largest minority, Labour or National led would govern.

    But this could mean the second largest party Labour would lead a government for the first time.

    A major factor in the election is going to be what policies of a Labour or National led coalition could/would NZF decide to block from the cross benches and what could/would they not block.

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  42. SPC (5,472 comments) says:

    nasska, all PM’s lose their Smeagol/Gollum struggle in the third term – it is the price they pay if they win again, then they feel the ring of power belongs to them, rather than being the peoples gift to those elected into office and then get paranoid about upstarts looking over their job (trying to steal their ring).

    Of course all parties long for a leader who knows when to hand over the ring, so that they can stay in office.

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  43. nasska (10,834 comments) says:

    Sounds like as good a theory as I’ve heard in a fair while SPC. :)

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  44. Johnboy (15,410 comments) says:

    So Helen gave it away when someone tried to steal her ring then!

    The mind boggles…..Who would be so undiscerning! :)

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  45. SPC (5,472 comments) says:

    Johnboy she was paranoid that the rich (with bottomless hollows of money) would buy the election so she created new election finance rules to stop them. She was also paranoid that the opposition was out to remove Winston so they could take the ring of power, so she helped Winston cling onto the (trickle down) baubles of position bestowed by her ring of power (foreign junkets and the like).

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  46. NK (1,102 comments) says:

    #2 isn’t difficult to predict if you know enough about inter-governmental conferences which NZ has been asked to attend in November.

    In fact, a lot of these are like reading the Dear Miss Daisy columns in the Women’s Weekly. You know, ” I am lonely, do you see me with someone soon?”. Answer: “You need to keep yourself busy and someone will appear before you die. But you have to be prepared to compromise”.

    In other words, generic, superficial and with a lot of inside knowledge (ie #2).

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  47. ross69 (3,652 comments) says:

    Len Brown will go

    He will go find himself another bit on the side? You could well be right….

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  48. ross69 (3,652 comments) says:

    National will campaign on tax cuts

    That would play into Labour’s hands. Promising to cut taxes for the wealthy while selling off state assets would be incredibly dumb. Then again, John Key might just be stupid enough to score an own goal as he did with his comment that Pike River families would have to take the govt to court to get compo.

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  49. NK (1,102 comments) says:

    Yes Ross. Key is stupid.

    You on the other hand are a shining light of genius.

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  50. duggledog (1,415 comments) says:

    Ross

    I don’t think they will campaign on tax cuts, probably mention lower taxes could be the result of a third term but nothing too substantial so I agree with you there. I still think they have to go into the election with something more immediate and tangible for the folk on the ground. I don’t know how they could swing it but let’s just say for argument’s sake a drop in petrol excise that lowered the pump price to say $1.90 – something like that would get them over the line.

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  51. hj (6,608 comments) says:

    Elites will set the agenda. National, Labour and the Greens will support continued immigration. The media will sing it’s benefits. The Government wont have (that) data.

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  52. Warren Murray (288 comments) says:

    I predict Banks will leave parliament before the Gen Election.

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  53. MH (674 comments) says:

    Any judge dealing with Banks will be sent on sabbatical leave for 6 months.

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  54. Shazzadude (516 comments) says:

    Here’s 10 election predictions from me:

    1. Labour/Greens will be the next government, possibly with Mana and the Maori Party in tow
    2. Labour will reinstate the position of treasurer to allow Norman to hold the junior Minister of Finance portfolio
    3. New Zealand First will get back in to parliament, but won’t hold the balance of power
    4. Winston Peters will stand for the seat of Whangarei
    5. Ron Mark to make his return to national politics for New Zealand First, standing in Wairarapa
    6. The Conservatives won’t clear 5%, but Craig will win East Coast Bays, bringing in an additional 3 list MPs
    7. Stuart Nash to win back Napier for Labour
    8. David Tua will stand in Mangere and finish second
    9. ACT will struggle to win more votes than the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis party
    10. Mana to have a second MP in their ranks after the next election

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  55. Samuel Smith (276 comments) says:

    DPF, not too bright. What electorate will National win of Labour? Who would possibly vote for Peter Dunne?

    My predictions:

    1. Key attempts to show strong leadership by dumping Parata.
    2. ACT gone.
    3. Maori Party gone.
    4. Annette Sykes wins Waikari
    5. Mana get three MPs.
    6. Cup of Tea results in Cons getting four seats.
    7. Dunne gone, Right vote split and Labour candidate wins.
    8. Key resigns on election night.
    9. Collins becomes leader of the opposition.
    10. Right wing bloggers continue sleaze campaign.

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  56. infused (644 comments) says:

    I doubt National will go on tax cuts.

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  57. wreck1080 (3,787 comments) says:

    unless you have information that we don’t, why do you say Len Brown will go?

    Obviously he enjoys the baubles of power and maybe he still has some debt to repay.

    Not sure what he does for a real job, maybe it pays well anyway?

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