My 2014 predictions
Here's my 20 political predictions for 2014:
- colin craig will be a Member of Parliament by the end of 2014
- The election will be held in October 2014
- Genesis Energy will be sold by May 2014
- There will be two new ministers before the election
- At least one electorate Labour MP will be successfully challenged for their party's nomination (or will withdraw before the vote)
- At least two more national MPs will announce they will retire before the election
- Brendan Horan will not be an MP by the end of 2014
- The 2014 Budget will project a surplus of between $100 million and $250 million for 2014/15.
- NZ will not win the election for the UN Security Council
- At least two Green MPs will be ranked outside the top 15 on the Green list
- The Maori Party will have at least two MPs after the election
- len brown will go
- Hone Harawira will attend less than half the House sitting days in 2014
- National will campaign on tax cuts and Labour on tax increases
- jamie whyte will be elected the Leader of act and candidate for Epsom, but ACT will not make it back to Parliament
- Peter Dunne will be re-elected MP for Ohariu
- NZ First will have fewer MPs after the election, than they got in 2011
- A prominent journalist will stand as a candidate for the kim dotcom Party
- National will both gain and lose electorate seats at the election
- After the 2014 election, Parliament will be at least 38% female, up from 34%