National up in latest poll

December 20th, 2013 at 1:00 pm by David Farrar

The Herald reports:

Labour’s poll support has slipped after an initial surge following David Cunliffe’s election as leader, the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey shows.

The Maori Party would hold the balance of power if the figures were translated to an election result.

With the left and right blocs fairly evenly split, it could be a close election next year.

Neither National nor Labour would be able to form a government without the Maori Party.

Labour has fallen 2.3 points in the survey to 35.4 per cent. In the September poll, it had a surge in support and could have formed a government with just the Greens and Mana.

National has risen 3.1 points and Prime Minister John Key has somewhat recovered in the preferred Prime Minister stakes, after taking a 9.4 point dive in the last poll.

He has jumped 6.1 points to 61.9 per cent, well ahead of Mr Cunliffe on 16.5 per cent.

Not a bad place to end the year. And David Cunliffe is polling below what David Shearer was as Preferred PM.

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30 Responses to “National up in latest poll”

  1. dime (8,752 comments) says:

    lmao cunliffe is just such an unlikeable prick.

    wait til the lead in to the election when people actually start paying attention and get to see the chinless git on their screens every night.

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  2. Cunningham (746 comments) says:

    dime (7,960 comments) says:

    “wait til the lead in to the election when people actually start paying attention and get to see the chinless git on their screens every night.”

    That is what Labour should be most worried about. There is a reason why he is hated by his colleagues. As incompetent as Shearer was, at least he was a likeable guy. Cunliffe comes across as slimey and untrustworthy.

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  3. lolitasbrother (346 comments) says:

    Thats right dime , whereas Shearer is fundamentally likeable; Cunliffe is fundamentally unlikeable.
    The screaming socialists are nothing in this country.

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  4. alloytoo (337 comments) says:

    David Cunliffe, labour’s gift to National 2014

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  5. wikiriwhis business (3,286 comments) says:

    Obviously, Maori will front for LAbour so National has already lost the 2014 election according to Mr Farrar.

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  6. YesWeDid (1,002 comments) says:

    I guess ‘Poll result various by usual amount of sampling error’ is a pretty lame headline compare to ‘National Up in Latest Poll!!’

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  7. Rowan (1,729 comments) says:

    Nats are still the best of a bad lot, although they are far from perfect. Labour still have some way to go and David Cunliffe is exceedingly arrogant. I think Key and co are likely to get another term.

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  8. Nigel Kearney (747 comments) says:

    I’m not so sure the Maori party will go with Labour. They have long memories and still haven’t got over Helen calling them ‘the last cab off the rank’.

    Anyway the Greens will do worse than their polling so it may not matter.

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  9. Manolo (12,624 comments) says:

    I’m not so sure the Maori party will go with Labour.

    The enlightened natives will go with the party which offers the highest koha.

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  10. Andronicus (185 comments) says:

    No-one can tell for sure which way the Maori Party will jump.

    They should go with Labour, most of their supporters would want them to go with Labour, but……..

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  11. unitedtribes (24 comments) says:

    Colin will be disappointed in the result. He needs to be making traction at this stage not loosing 30% of his following.

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  12. Nick R (443 comments) says:

    I wouldn’t bet on the Maori Party going with National. Not with Te Ururoa Flavell as leader – and possibly sole MP.

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  13. Tom Jackson (2,235 comments) says:

    The trend looks about the same – within the margin of error.

    Colin Craig will make the 5%. The media underestimate the sheer number of retards in NZ.

    No party has yet given me a reason to bother voting.

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  14. Zapper (843 comments) says:

    I don’t know Tom, media read kiwiblog and must have seen some of your comments

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  15. Chuck Bird (4,406 comments) says:

    I would be surprised if NZF does not make the 5% and is the party that decides who will be PM.

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  16. Tom Jackson (2,235 comments) says:

    I don’t know Tom, media read kiwiblog and must have seen some of your comments.

    They are obscured by all the derp.

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  17. AG (1,727 comments) says:

    “The Maori Party would hold the balance of power if the figures were translated to an election result.”

    Yep. Because THERE’S a sentence guaranteed to send a message of hope and good things to come into the heart of every centre-right voter in NZ.

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  18. Alan (910 comments) says:

    This is all just MOE stuff; the polls really haven’t moved an inch since the last election. It came down to about 10,000 votes then, it’ll be the same again. Neither side has made any progress, turnout and ground game will decide it.

    It’s really a coin flip at this stage.

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  19. bc (1,251 comments) says:

    Not a bad place to end the year DPF, but not a good place either.
    There will be a big swing back to Labour in the Maori seats next year. With Sharples and Turia gone, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Maori Party don’t win any seats. Hone will win his seat of course.
    It can’t be guaranteed that ACT and United Future will win their seats.
    Still a while to go of course, but I think it will be edge of the seat stuff.

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  20. tvb (3,939 comments) says:

    Cunliffe is failing to fire and is polling no better than Shearer. I assume there are different reasons behind this but Cunliffe does not add up. And the Labour Party is divided over his leadership.

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  21. srylands (301 comments) says:

    “It’s really a coin flip at this stage.”

    Yes. How have we been landed with an elctoral system that may not deliver re-election to an enormously successful, popular Government?

    We have had MMP for 17 years. But it is yet to deliver its worst.

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  22. wikiriwhis business (3,286 comments) says:

    ‘Yep. Because THERE’S a sentence guaranteed to send a message of hope and good things to come into the heart of every centre-right voter in NZ.’

    Exept we don’t have a centre right govt.

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  23. Alan (910 comments) says:

    “Yes. How have we been landed with an elctoral system that may not deliver re-election to an enormously successful, popular Government?”

    Because, and I’m sure this will come as a surprise to many, the government isn’t all that popular. Half of our fellow citizens loathe it. MMP delivers the will of the people.

    It’s going to be super tight. I expect Labour to win, not happy about it, but that my read of the situation. I expected Labour to squeeze the greens to around 7%, Labour will poll around 38% and govern with Winston giving confidence and supply from the cross benches. The Winston Peters preferred PM rating of 7.3% is probably a good reflection of where they’ll poll.

    (I wouldn’t he happy with this result, but it’s most likely outcome in my view)

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  24. bringbackdemocracy (350 comments) says:

    Alan, I think your wrong about NZ First. They have been dropping in the polls over the last two years. The Herald on Sunday poll at the weekend had them at 1%. They will lose votes to Labour now that Goff is not there and Colin Craig will reduce their support even more. Winston is becoming more “yesterdays man” and like a joke you have heard many times, doesn’t have the new ideas any more.

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  25. Alan (910 comments) says:

    The herald on sunday poll had Labour at 40%, I don’t read much into it.

    The Digipoll on this post is interesting, but remember at the last election they over rated National a lot compared to actual votes and under rated NZ First.

    What I can’t find published here, which is common practice overseas is sub-samples. Geographical breakdown of the poll and breakdown by previous voting record. I know they gather it, but all I ever see is headline figures which is very frustrating.

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  26. Johnboy (13,386 comments) says:

    Come the next earthquake (a force nine centered under Skycity) the survivors will vote for Gerry and the pacemakers.

    The party that has form in dealing with serious stuff.

    Cunlips/Wussel will take the toner out of the printers and use the output to wipe the shit off their faces instead of printing money! :)

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  27. Chuck Bird (4,406 comments) says:

    Alan, I agree with you about Winston making 5%. He normally leaves his run to close on the election. However, I would think he will go with National for a few reasons. Firstly, he does not like the Watermelons. Secondly, National could offer him more like a good Cabinet position. Thirdly, Labour wants to push up the age of retirement. National does not so going with National will satisfy many who voted for him.

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  28. KevinH (1,128 comments) says:

    A week is a long time in politics let alone a year. Nevertheless the poll results reflect a close contest that will give encouragement to the left and food for thought for the right to consider over the holiday period.
    NZ First have consistently polled in the 3-5% range throughout the year and will figure strongly in any coalition arrangements providing they maintain their momentum. The Maori Party have a fight on their hands with Labour making inroads into their vote, Labour smells blood there and will push hard in the Maori seats to destabilise the current coalition. There is the potential for a deal to be done there.
    The Conservatives are enjoying some publicity but this is still not transferring into results, it is debatable that they will have any impact if at all.
    Act and United future are still in with a chance in Epsom and Ohariu respectively,with electors voting strategically, both parties will push hard closer to the election championing their success as coalition partners with National.
    It will be a big year for John Key, he will have to capitalise on strong growth results and together with his team blow Labour out of the water with a strong performance in the next 12 months.

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  29. bringbackdemocracy (350 comments) says:

    KevinH, The Conservatives got double the vote that the pollsters predicted last election. This time their support will be higher.
    National can’t afford to see that vote wasted.

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  30. ShawnLH (1,909 comments) says:

    ” MMP delivers the will of the people.”

    LOL!!!! Seriously?

    “What is true, just, and beautiful is not determined by popular vote. The masses everywhere are ignorant, short-sighted, motivated by envy, and easy to fool. Democratic politicians must appeal to these masses in order to be elected. Whoever is the best demagogue will win. Almost by necessity, then, democracy will lead to the perversion of truth, justice and beauty.”

    Hanse-Hermann Hoppe

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