Rangitata

December 9th, 2013 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

Stuff reports:

Labour leader David Cunliffe believes the party can win the electorate in 2014.

He said draft boundary changes, which give parts of Rakaia to Selwyn, mean the seat is “anybody’s game”.

I recall people saying Labour will win the seat in 2011 because of the South Canterbury Finance actions of the Government.  They didn’t get close. Jo Goodhew is a very effective and good local MP.

In 2005 she won the Aoraki seat off Labour by 6,937. In 2008 she won Rangitata by 8,112 and in 2011 won again by 6,537. Goodhew got around 56% of the total vote and Labour’s Blanchard 37%.

In the last election Labour polled well in Timaru but National was stronger in the Ashburton district.

Labour actually lost the party vote in Timaru, but their candidate did win more votes than Goodhew there. However Timaru makes up just one third of the electorate.

Mr Cunliffe, in South Canterbury to rouse the party faithful in Temuka, believes Labour can win Ashburton this time.

“Geraldine’s coming back in, we’ll have Point, we’ll have Temuka; I think we can win this seat.”

Rangitata is losing 1,600 people only to Selwyn around Rakaia. Geraldine and Temuka are not changing and included in the 2011 result.

It looks like three polling places are lost – Rakaia, Chertsay and Dorie. Adding them up Blanchard got 249 votes and Goodhew 676. Hence her majority would be expected to drop by around 427 votes, which is around 7% of her 6,537 majority.

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8 Responses to “Rangitata”

  1. Pauleastbay (5,030 comments) says:

    They will not get Geraldine fact, they have always had Temuka, its the make up of the town. They wont get Pleasant Point its all retired farmers FFS just like Geraldine.

    He’s a dork. Best thing the Pm can do is leave the tool in SA after he’s organised Mandela’s funeral.

    Watch this space, this walking ego will not be gracious enough to not politicise this trip to SA – just waiting waiting for the ” “Mandela was my inspiration for getting into politics “, just ahead of ” I was selling burgers to rich prick skiers while the workers of Pleasant point ate fish and chips” speech.

    And Dave , where did you go pig hunting at Pleasant Point? still waiting to here about that .

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  2. smttc (638 comments) says:

    Paul, Cunliffe has already done the “Mandela was my inspiration in the eighties when I was a student” thing. Couldn’t get it out fast enough last Friday.

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  3. tvb (3,945 comments) says:

    Never waste a good death’s opportunity to play politics starting with the public tribute. Like NZ played its part over the Springbok tour protest. Bob Hawkes seems to think that his Leadership on Commonwealth investment sanction brought down the regime. Oh the vanity of that man. Cunliffe is just as vain.

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  4. Richard Hurst (713 comments) says:

    “Labour leader David Cunliffe believes the party can win the Rangitata electorate in 2014″

    BAHAHAHAHAHA!

    Labour’s Blanchard is a glorified photocopier salesman and once had a relative in parliament. That’s his sum total of qualifications for the job.
    Labour will never get Geraldine- they hate Labour there and Pleasant Point won’t go for Labour for one reason which their still punishing Labour for: Pleasant Point High School. It’s not there anymore. Labour closed it.
    Damn me, Cunners talks some absolute batshit

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  5. gravedodger (1,426 comments) says:

    If silent t ever went pig hunting, it would have been a butchers shop.

    Then again a young labour social could offer opportunities.

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  6. bhudson (4,720 comments) says:

    Cunliffe is living on a wish and a prayer.

    Labour will put him to rest in Feb 2015 (if he doesn’t resign immediately after the election.)

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  7. homepaddock (429 comments) says:

    Geraldine is in Waitaki not Rangitata but whichever electorate it’s in it’s solidly blue.

    Rangitata lost territory because it gained in population – the votes of the newcomers will make a difference, but not necessarily a negative one for Jo who is a very popular and effective MP.

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  8. Andrew McMillan (44 comments) says:

    Labour don’t have any chance at winning Rangitata in 2014 (assuming Jo Goodhew stands again).

    Julian Blanchard, who stood in 2008 and 2011 has already indicated he’s done his dash and won’t contend 2014. It looks like they’ll run a female candidate for 2014, my guess would be Heather Woolstencroft. She’s a Labour stalwart and stood for a seat on the Timaru District Council earlier this year (which she missed out on).

    For the 2011 election, Blanchard quit his job and spent a fistful of money chasing the seat and for all that effort he barely made an improvement on his 2008 result. He literally painted the town (Timaru) red with his Labour signs.

    It was Phil Goff himself who in 2010 predicted that Blanchard would take the seat the following year. This year it’s Cunliffe’s turn to line up the cannon fodder in Rangitata.

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