Scoring my 2013 predictions

December 31st, 2013 at 7:50 am by David Farrar

On 24 December 2012 I made 20 predictions for 2013, emulating the annual Fairfax tradition. My and how I scored them were:

  1. At least two state owned power companies will have successful partial floats. – 1 (MRP and Meridian floated)
  2. Tracey Martin will be elected/anointed Deputy Leader of NZ First. – 1 (occurred a couple of months ago)
  3. Holly Walker’s Lobbying Disclosure Bill will not be passed into law in 2013, even if amended. – 1 (killed off near unanimously)
  4. There will be at least three new Ministers by the end of 2013 (new being not Ministers today). – 1 (Nikki Kaye, Michael Woodhouse, Nick Smith)
  5. Louisa Wall’s marriage bill will pass into law by June 2013, with at least 75 votes at third reading. – 1 (77 votes in April)
  6. David Shearer will demote at least two front-benchers to the backbenches. -1 (Street and Mahuta in February)
  7. David Carter will be elected Speaker of the House, but it will not be a unanimous vote. -1 (Elected 62 to 52 over Mallard)
  8. Paul Foster-Bell will become an MP in 2013. – 1 (May 28)
  9. The 2013 census will see two new general seats and one new Maori seat. – 0 (only one general seat and no Maori seat)
  10. David Cunliffe will not be rehabilitated and remain off the front bench. – 0 (I could argue a half mark as he wasn’t rehabilitated, he was voted in by unions and members, not caucus)
  11. An MP will get engaged and a different one will get pregnant. – 1/2 (Holly Walker announced pregnancy in May, unaware of any engagement)
  12. Current or former Members of Parliament will contest both the Wellington and Auckland Mayoralties. – 0
  13. David Clark’s Mondayisation Bill will pass 61 votes to 60 at 3rd reading. – 1 (passed 61 – 60 on 17 April)
  14. During the year at least three National MPs will announce they will retire at the 2014 election. – 1 (I would score this higher if I could – eight retirements announced so far)
  15. Over the year, National will on average of all public polls, poll higher than Labour and Greens combined but not Labour, Greens and NZ First. – 1 (On averaged National 1% higher than Lab/Gre but 3% below Lab/Gre/NZF)
  16. Brendan Horan will not be an MP by the end of 2013. – 0 (here to stay!)
  17. The 2013 Budget will project a small surplus for 2014/15. – 1 ($75m is as small as it gets!)
  18. NZ will not win the election for the UN Security Council, as too many countries think we are part of Australia who have just got elected. – 1/2 (not decided until September 2014)
  19. Winston will get thrown out of the House by the new Speaker. – 0 (I thought he had been, but can’t find a reference to it)
  20. The thresholds for parliamentary representation will remain unchanged at 5% party vote or 1 electorate seat. – 1

So overall I score myself 14/20. Happy with that.

UPDATE: An MP did get engaged in 2013, but they also got unengaged later. However I still score that as a 1/2 so my score goes up to 14.5/20.

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26 Responses to “Scoring my 2013 predictions”

  1. flipper (4,332 comments) says:

    Hmnnn…

    Pretty darn good.

    Now, what about 2014?

    I will start the ball rolling:
    1. National will win in 2014, and will be supported by Dunne, ACT, and the MP.
    2. The clever voters in Epsom will again have a “brain fade”, forget about Banksie, and again vote in ACT.
    3. The High Court Judge only trial of Banksie will be a “Not Guilty result.
    4. Key will demolish Cunners in each and every TV debate…and in The House.

    There…

    Just a start. :-)

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  2. duggledog (1,627 comments) says:

    Here’s a guarantee Flipper

    Labour will forget about decency and the unwritten rule not to bring the opponent’s personal circumstances into the campaign. It’ll be Rich John Key with his 50 mil or whatever, all the way to November.

    Hard to do when you live in Herne Bay, but a job for someone like Jones.

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  3. bringbackdemocracy (429 comments) says:

    The Conservatives will be in parliament in numbers, Act, United, Mana and the Maori party will be 1 MP parties.

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  4. flipper (4,332 comments) says:

    Heh Duggles….

    You have made an excellent point.
    An attempted repeat of the Clark/Simpson/Williams N bomb, perhaps ?

    I take it that you are not referring to my old mate Bob !
    Bests for 2014
    F

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  5. lolitasbrother (774 comments) says:

    D. Farrar a true prodigy

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  6. Manolo (14,176 comments) says:

    A prodigy, a fortune-teller, a visionary, a seer. Long live DPF. :-)

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  7. ross69 (3,652 comments) says:

    Hmnnn…

    Pretty darn good.

    Now, what about 2014?

    I will start the ball rolling:

    You missed the obvious one.

    David Bain still won’t have been given a brass razoo. :)

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  8. Manolo (14,176 comments) says:

    I predict in 2014 the ETS tax will be abolished by Labour Lite. Tui ad.

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  9. Harriet (5,201 comments) says:

    And smacking. Tui ad.

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  10. flipper (4,332 comments) says:

    Did anyone else spot the idiot troll?

    Billy Goat Gruff saw it, and is hot on its trail.

    That troll, rossie69er, is in for a dunking in 2014. Come to think, it might fail to surface when Billy Goat Gruff knocks it off its left wing perch. It might, eventually, be washed up on a beach as sea-weed. Poor idiot troll rossie……

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  11. redqueen (597 comments) says:

    A very good result, indeed.

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  12. Harriet (5,201 comments) says:

    Russle Norman and David Cunliffe will be belted to kingdom come.

    “…..don’t think that sufficient correlation exists between rich and poor…….the “researchers” skim over good versus bad and conveniently substitute “rich” and “poor”….”

    Probably all statistics bear that out…..unless David and Russle want to admit that all ‘rich pricks’ neglect their kids – and that wealth alone is what nourishes, loves, cares, and fosters the welfare of their children. And besides, virtually all kids from good homes do well – and virtually all kids from bad homes don’t do so well – money, or lack of, has never come into it.

    The Conservatives may well bring this arguement up as it’s the truth – and an easily supported truth – and there is an awful lot of votes in telling the truth in an MMP enviroment!

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  13. duggledog (1,627 comments) says:

    The Conservatives can get an awful lot of traction by telling the truth next year – unfettered and feather ruffling, Bob Jones style. The harder the truth, the louder the shrieking from the left and MSM which will only serve to amplify the speaker’s profile.

    Such as – jobs. Where are the jobs? Jobs jobs jobs jobs jobs. Well there are thousands of them in the South Island currently being taken up by thousands of Filipinos etc. Poverty my ass. You are as poor as you want to be in this country. Colin should go all out!

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  14. MH (830 comments) says:

    Colin Craig will be torn between voting for himself or not (if he stands). In the end he will deliberately spoil his voting paper and loose on a recount by 1 vote but will walk away with a clean conscience.

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  15. Fisiani (1,052 comments) says:

    The Cunliffe in 2014 will a) walk on water b) turn water into wine and c) rent a tomb after the election but just for for 3 days.

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  16. Rowan (2,609 comments) says:

    Good list Flipper
    Shall we add the Lundy retrial gets booted to touch and follows the same course as the DB trainwreck?
    Similarly Crown law and Malcolm Burgess get a blasting at the PC over the Teina Pora case.
    Also shall we add how much is the arrogant f…wit Kent Parker going down for once the court decision is released? He will be wishing kept his big mouth shut!

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  17. Rowan (2,609 comments) says:

    Rossie
    I think you should make that, before to long in 2014 Kent Parker and counterspin will not have a brass razoo!
    It will probably happen as soon as the upcoming court decision is released!

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  18. Liberty (277 comments) says:

    “but 3% below Lab/Gre/NZF)”
    I’m surprised David you keep rabbiting on about the theoretical Lab/green/NZF vote as it is meaningless
    The NZ economy is on a roll. Mostly due to China importing . To suggest heartland NZ is going to vote in a motley lot of rednecks and luddites that would kill the golden goose is absurd.
    There is also the fact the coalition of luddites is doomed to fail. Simply because they hate each other and the only reason they are seen in the same room is lust for power or in Peters case burbles of office.

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  19. SPC (5,669 comments) says:

    Well, two power companies were floated, but were they successfully floated?

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  20. kiwi in america (2,314 comments) says:

    Pretty certain Peters got asked to leave the House by Carter. Otherwise a good effort.

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  21. wikiriwhis business (4,203 comments) says:

    ‘You are as poor as you want to be in this country.’

    That’s one of the crappiest statements out. It’s a huge lie

    Proof being Paula Bennett closed so many doors when she shut down the opportunity
    for solo’s to get ahead through the avenues she did. And probably not just solo’s

    This National govt has also changed so much criteria for students that came about because of whingers
    that congregate on Kiwiblog and probably have connections to get these changes made.

    Whingers who treat the future leaders of this country as bludgers because they trying to get ahead.

    The same whingers who used free education to get ahead. The same whingers who complain about Sth Akld
    where so many great athletes and others were raised by hard working God fearing decent parents.

    These elitist whingers are the silent minority who hide in shadows and will go to their graves unknown and forgotten

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  22. wikiriwhis business (4,203 comments) says:

    ‘A prodigy, a fortune-teller, a visionary, a seer. Long live DPF.’

    With a lot of insider knowledge. Mr Farrar could probably have written Hollow Men.

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  23. duggledog (1,627 comments) says:

    Wiki –

    1: The best way for solos to get ahead is to not be solos. Having a child out of wedlock or trying to bring them up on your own because that guy who seemed so cool and dangerous with his tattoos and everything turned out to be useless is the best way to be dirt poor for life

    2 & 3: I can’t recognise these as valid points

    4: Free education doesn’t get you ahead; hard work, thrift and taking advantage of opportunity does; also not breeding like a rat (see: 1)

    5: I can’t recognise this as a valid point

    ‘You’re as poor as you want to be in this country” – if you can’t make it in this country then you’re unlikely to succeed anywhere in the world. We have free welfare, healthcare, education, housing and so on. Ask any immigrant you like if they want to leave – not many do, and they often have major cultural and language barriers to contend with.

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  24. OneTrack (3,374 comments) says:

    “Well, two power companies were floated, but were they successfully floated?”

    Yes. Yes they were. In one case the government gained a price well above the market value – more billions for hospitals and schools. And now there is a much bigger pool of New Zealanders who might be more disposed to invest in other kiwi companies, instead of real estate.

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  25. OneTrack (3,374 comments) says:

    “We have free welfare, healthcare, education, housing and so on”

    But those evil neolibs cancelled all of those in their first term and now we are living like in Dickensian London.

    What, they havent? But thats not what the Cunliffe and Mr Norman said.

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  26. Rowan (2,609 comments) says:

    A pretty good strike rate DPF.
    Trolls like Rossie, Mugsy, Stephieboy etc and the rest of KPs witch sniffing, pedo-supporting, soon to be bankrupted cult are currently running at around 0.000000%, that is in regards to there predictions regarding David Bain, so 70% from you is fairly impressive.

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