2014 Coalition Options

January 22nd, 2014 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

coalitionoptions

The table above shows the state of play. Taking each in turn.

Greens – ruled out by National. Greens have not explicitly ruled National out. Preferred partner of Labour

NZ First – deemed unlikely by National but not ruled out. Ruled in by Labour. In past has said will negotiate first with largest party.

Maori Party – ruled in by National. Labour not ruled out but are trying to wipe them out of Parliament. Maori Party preference would be decided after election and consultation.

Mana – ruled out by National and vice-versa. Not ruled out by Labour.

ACT – ruled out by Labour.

United Future – has ruled out Labour. Not ruled out by Labour.

Conservatives – deemed possible by National. Labour has ruled them out. Conservatives not ruled either in or out and said preference is to support largest party.

So the effective groupings now are:

Right – National, ACT, United Future, Conservatives
Centre – NZ First, Maori
Left – Labour, Greens, Mana

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35 Responses to “2014 Coalition Options”

  1. duggledog (1,559 comments) says:

    I think the fact Labour haven’t ruled out Mana is a much worse look to the NZ voting public than National ruling Winston in

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  2. burt (8,275 comments) says:

    I think the fact that the parties order their list and manipulate the electorate positions is far worse than any coalition they can dream up. Bring on full proportional representation and the coalitions are under our control – not theirs.

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  3. All_on_Red (1,584 comments) says:

    Shouldn’t that list be Centre,Left and Far Left?

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  4. Harriet (4,972 comments) says:

    “…..Conservatives – deemed possible by National. Labour has ruled them out. Conservatives not ruled either in or out and said preference is to support largest party…..”

    Labour is putting a lot of ‘faith’ in the Pacific Islanders, the Anglicans, the Catholics, the Methodists and the Presbitarians giving them an electorate vote AND a party vote. As these people have been voting for Labour for years and getting nothing.

    Greed is a vice as Labour’s taken for granted religous ‘faithful’ would say. :cool:

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  5. Jaffa (94 comments) says:

    Umm, don’t they have to get in, first?

    Some of them won’t make it.

    I know, lets have an election!

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  6. dime (9,977 comments) says:

    Annette King was on ZB this morning (she is sounding OLD).

    Hosking lets her get away with things like “the mad hatter act party” “right wing nut jobs like the conservatives”. All the while, HONE gets a pass! Hone!!!

    Not to mention the mad as shit, anti-everything but dope and trees, greens.

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  7. berend (1,709 comments) says:

    You put National at the wrong side of the political spectrum: it’s actually left.

    Or else, what happened to “we are not the party of more taxation, but of tax cuts”? I.e. were is my tax cut?

    And the people who claim they got one: look at the insane amounts National borrowed. If you got a tax cut, you got it by borrowing from your kids.

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  8. OneTrack (3,111 comments) says:

    “Greens have not explicitly ruled National out” – Yeah right

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  9. OneTrack (3,111 comments) says:

    “Shouldn’t that list be Centre,Left and Far Left?”

    Should be Centre-Left, Left and Far Left?

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  10. iMP (2,386 comments) says:

    DPF, totally agree with NZF, Maori as Center. They can go either way and are uncommitted to either side.

    The real battle in 2014 is Consv. vs NZF for that share of the superannuitant/conservative vote. I think Consv. have the edge because of their growing appeal in rural NZ and winston’s negative baggage.

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  11. iMP (2,386 comments) says:

    Another factor, Consv. is likely to stand in several seats, so will be discussed in context of real contests or impacts on coalition maths, whereas NZF will likely be (effectively) List only.

    Ie races like: C. Rankin vs P Bennet, Upper Harbour; C. Craig vs Nat in East Coast Bays; Epsom, etc. will generate media for Consv., while Winston beats his List Immigration/ Maoris are Chinese/there is a Conspiracy, drum.

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  12. NK (1,244 comments) says:

    Conservatives spent $1.3million in 2011 and never got close. NZ First spent about $1.30 and got almost 7%.

    NZ First know how to campaign, the Conservatives think they do but results say otherwise.

    When was the last time Colin Craig was elected to anything?

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  13. virtualmark (1,528 comments) says:

    Harriet,

    You raise an interesting point. The Conservative Party could potentially take a fair portion of the Pacific Island vote that’s traditionally gone to Labour. But for that to happen I suspect Colin Craig would need to find some high-profile PI candidates, and change the perception the Conservative Party is for older white voters who pine for a bygone age.

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  14. duggledog (1,559 comments) says:

    Interesting comment on the radio on Key’s lukewarm invitation to deals with NZ First & Cons. Basically said Key is ‘loving them to death’ and that they will cancel each other out!

    Primary objective – governing alone. I still think it’s a distinct possibility.

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  15. NK (1,244 comments) says:

    About 2% chance in Nats governing alone. In fact it’s in their interest *not* to govern alone.

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  16. iMP (2,386 comments) says:

    NK, NZF has been around since 1993. Consv. less than three years. I’d say relatively, the latter is doing pretty well, like polling ahead of ACT/UF/Mana combined without being in parliament on the teat.

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  17. smttc (752 comments) says:

    “Maori Party preference would be decided after election and consultation.”

    I call bullshit on that if it is what the MP is saying. Given the choice, they will go with Labour. As I have said before, they never vote with National on anything except supply and confidence anyway. A real disappointment in government. Let them be gone I say.

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  18. James Stephenson (2,186 comments) says:

    “Greens have not explicitly ruled National out” – Yeah right

    Another Green classic up there with “Russel might have said that, but it’s not policy

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  19. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (890 comments) says:

    Easy win for Labour. Cunliffe sleep walking to victory.

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  20. OneTrack (3,111 comments) says:

    “Easy win for Labour. Cunliffe sleep walking to victory.”

    Well he has got the sleep walking part right :-)

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  21. Nick R (507 comments) says:

    This is probably off topic, but I can’t help thinking that the fact that we are all discussing coalition permutations in January for an election that probably won’t happen until November demonstrates the need for a longer Parliamentary term. If the parties are going to spend the rest of the year focusing on the election and its aftermath rather than the business of Government/opposition, that’s a big loss of time and resources. In other words – I reckon the business of elections is a dead weight on Parliament, and that burden could be reduced without any meaningful loss of democratic input if we extended the parliamentary term to 4 years.

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  22. RF (1,402 comments) says:

    Heard the old tusker King on the Mike Hosking ZB show this morning. She was gabbling away and very hard to understand. If this is the best Labour can offer the silent T has major problems later in the year.

    Talking about the silent T who was on TV last night where he was smirking about National now considering NZ First. I can see why 80% of his caucus hates him so much. “What a smarmy prick.” That comment came from my partner who never takes an interest in politics or bad mouths anyone.

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  23. thePeoplesFlag (247 comments) says:

    You appear to have left the Internet Party off your list DPF – you may wish to correct your inadvertent oversight.

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  24. In Vino Veritas (139 comments) says:

    Labour cannot rule out the Greens, nor the Greens Labour. Otherwise they have no path to power. Labour also cannot rule out Mana, as without them, it is unlikely they will form Government.

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  25. Ashley Schaeffer (487 comments) says:

    thePeoplesFlag (63 comments) says:
    January 22nd, 2014 at 11:23 am
    You appear to have left the Internet Party off your list DPF – you may wish to correct your inadvertent oversight.

    Have they registered yet?

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  26. Colville (2,269 comments) says:

    Have they registered yet?

    The DotCon Party will need to get 500 people paid up and signed up ON PAPER and submit them with all the bollocks paperwork in order just like UF did last year, even then it took a month or so for an existing Party to reregister. Who knows how long for a new party to get the tick.

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  27. dime (9,977 comments) says:

    are the bill&ben party running again?

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  28. Shazzadude (529 comments) says:

    iMP: “NK, NZF has been around since 1993. Consv. less than three years. I’d say relatively, the latter is doing pretty well, like polling ahead of ACT/UF/Mana combined without being in parliament on the teat.”

    Christian Coalition hadn’t been around long either when they got their stunning result of 4.3% in 1996. What happened after that?

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  29. Chuck Bird (4,895 comments) says:

    For those who are anti Winston I see ipredict’s postion on a National lead government has increased. Key would be very wise to get Winston on board even if he did not really need him. Clark did it with the Greens and NZF and Key brought in the Maori Party when National with ACT’s 5 seats could have governed on their own. Does anyone think Key has not thought of this.

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  30. Allyson (47 comments) says:

    Key is a smart operator. Now up to Culliffe to look into the camera and tell kiwis his preferred partners are the Greens and Mana. Somehow I dont think he will do that. +1 to Key.

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  31. Than (475 comments) says:

    I’m disappointing Key didn’t rule out working with Peters, but on the bright side that makes an arrangement with the Conservatives less likely.

    I also noticed Key took the opportunity to begin labelling the Greens and Mana as far left extremists. Which would be very effective, if Cunliffe didn’t have an easy retort – “He thinks that the Greens are crazy but he wants to go into coalition with Colin Craig.”

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  32. OneTrack (3,111 comments) says:

    “You appear to have left the Internet Party off your list DPF …”

    He also left off the McGillicuddy Serious Party and the Pirate Party. What was he thinking?

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  33. OneTrack (3,111 comments) says:

    “The DotCon Party will need to get 500 people paid up and signed up ON PAPER and submit them ”

    But, but, the “Internet Party” believes only in the Internet, not old fashioned “paper”.

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  34. Harriet (4,972 comments) says:

    Virtualmark#

    “…..Harriet,…….You raise an interesting point. The Conservative Party could potentially take a fair portion of the Pacific Island vote that’s traditionally gone to Labour. But for that to happen I suspect Colin Craig would need to find some high-profile PI candidates, and change the perception the Conservative Party is for older white voters who pine for a bygone age….”

    Imagine being told to your face by the Labour leader that the absent Hone is better than you.

    Even PG would smack his mouth shut for that one – and rightfully so too I will admit! :cool:

    Cunliffe has cornered himself.

    Colin Craig will ask Cunliffe over and over why he’s so against the CCCC compared to Hone & the Greens. Cunliffe then has to list why in front of the voters, and CCCC economic policy won’t cut it as an excuse. Neither will anything else. Mr Craig will point that out.

    If Cunliffe then resorts to denouncing ‘Christianity’ in any way, Labour’s religious voters will then see that as recognition by Labour that they have no interest at all in there religious voters, and are then likely to at least give their party vote to the CCCC. Mr Craig will point that out too.

    If Cunliffe backs down and agrees that they can work with the CCCC – then that is an endorsment for Labour’s religious voters to vote for the CCCC party vote. Mr Craig will point that out also.

    The aim of the CCCC is to just get 5% on the policies that they stand on and win an electorate seat or two. As Mr Craig has already pointed out.

    There is now a very serious question mark hanging over David Cunliffe where judgement is concerned.

    Labour faces a hiding at the next election for insulting Mr Craig and Christians in the way that they are.

    Hone? Fuck Labour’s desperate!

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  35. Mark (1,488 comments) says:

    Harriet you have to suspect Cunliffe could work with Colin Craig if Craig will concede that the earth is not flat and that life on earth evolved

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