Bob Jones on 2014 election

January 21st, 2014 at 3:00 pm by David Farrar

writes:

But the election is still a race and thus interesting, more so as polls suggest it will be tight with National and a Labour-Greens combination currently polling 50/50. The expected thriving economy should consolidate the Government’s support although one suspects most folk will read about this promised new prosperity rather than actually feel it. National’s prime asset is John Key. He’s been an excellent Prime Minister, his genuine affability and popularity, plus his sharp intellect comprising a huge hurdle for David Cunliffe going toe to toe with him in debates. Additionally, my Press Gallery contacts report apathy in Labour’s caucus through distaste for their leader which doesn’t augur well for an impassioned campaign.

Labour have been almost missing in action over the break.

Much is made of the third parties deciding who’s government, specifically New Zealand First and the Maori Party. That’s presumptuous. Neither might be there after the election. Winston was just under 5 per cent then just over in the last two elections, while the Maori Party is in disarray and Harawira’s and their seats may revert to Labour.

I can’t see the Maori Party not being there. The issue will be how many seats they have.

Then there’s Christchurch, which unexpectedly backed the Government heavily last time in the all-important party vote, but polls suggest will not this year. So the election outcome is undoubtedly up in the air. Will Peter Dunne get up again? Probably – he’s an excellent electorate MP. Can Act find an attractive leader whom Epsom can vote for? Probably. This will dismay the Press Gallery who were hugely looking forward to Colin Craig’s arrival and soliciting his views on whether the earth is flat and if not, why don’t we Southern Hemisphere dwellers fall off, and other such pressing issues.

Colin Craig, Winston Peters and Dotcom all have a knack for headlines (positive and negative). But is there room for all three of them?

Still, with all these question-marks the Prime Minister could be forgiven for envying the recent Azerbaijan presidential election in which the results were accidentally released the day before anyone actually voted. After all, we all seek certainty in our lives.

Heh.

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20 Responses to “Bob Jones on 2014 election”

  1. burt (8,294 comments) says:

    Still, with all these question-marks the Prime Minister could be forgiven for envying the recent Azerbaijan presidential election in which the results were accidentally released the day before anyone actually voted.

    Are Azerbaijan socialist by any chance ?

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  2. Joanne (177 comments) says:

    Great column by Bob Jones.

    Great tweet by Bill Ralston;

    “If Colin Craig takes votes off Winston and neither trigger 5% and Kim Dotcom takes Labour and Green votes but doesn’t hit 5% then who wins?”

    The correct answer was everyone.

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  3. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    You missed the best bit, where he points out that people are going to stay away in droves.

    Democracy has about the same efficacy as religious ritual these days.

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  4. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    I think I should invest in an Alsatian to chase the rosetted douchebags off my property this year. I reckon it would get a few manglings in before the dog ranger had it put down.

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  5. tvb (4,487 comments) says:

    Releasing election results before anyone had votes is just gorgeous. Reminds me of that funny story of Lyndon Johnson ordering his campaign workers to make sure all the people in the cemetery voted as they had every right to vote as anyone else.

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  6. Chuck Bird (4,922 comments) says:

    Key has just said he will not rule NZF out. As leader of National he has a duty to give National the best chance he can of a National lead government.

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  7. MH (809 comments) says:

    comes from an old David Frost show That was the week that was in which he read “someone had broken into the kremlin and stole next years election results”.

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  8. stephen2d (87 comments) says:

    I will be ready to bet a good chunk of money that Christchurch will NOT back Labour in the next election.

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  9. Pete Burdon (19 comments) says:

    The debates will be a great watch. While Cunliffe is good with the media, he does tend to have that tone of voice that comes across a bit patronising (Jenny Shipley had the same problem). Key on the other hand can connect with anyone.

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  10. freethinker (694 comments) says:

    stephen2d (29 comments) says:
    January 21st, 2014 at 3:57 pm

    I will be ready to bet a good chunk of money that Christchurch will NOT back Labour in the next election.

    Waimakariri will certainly revert to Labour courtesy of previous East suburbs residents relocating to Kaiapoi & Rangiora. ChCh Central will also revert to Labour – a pity because Nicky Wagner has worked hard and been visible whilst Labour has been AWOL. The CCC has gone Labour which may be a foretaste of the future or perhaps a protest at the failures of EQC and the insurance industry to settle quake claims in a timely and fair manner and the Governments failure to sort out its responsibilities for EQC and Southern response both of whom have gained reputations genocidal rulers and international fraudsters would be proud of. Its too late to promise National will deliver as Brownlee is despised as an arrogant uninformed twerp who has single handed done most to dissuade many from investing in the city evidenced by the terrific growth in Selwyn and Waimakariri. Can only hope that Colin Craig takes enough votes off NZF and ACt to bring 10 MPs to the Beehive, save National from the opposition benches and the Country from Labour/Greens.

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  11. iMP (2,416 comments) says:

    Bob Jones of course knows about small parties being used to affect big party futures.

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  12. iMP (2,416 comments) says:

    My prediction is Colin Craig will appeal across the board in the small party leader debates as a fresh force and a new choice, with a strong grip on the issues (he does his homework). He will also work the media in 2014 better than the other small party leaders.

    1. Maori Party will be invisible.
    2. Harawira will come across as the phantom MP he is, trading victim cliches and racism.
    3. ACT will be bland and unknown if it doesn’t self-destruct thru the leadership race. What is their brand?
    4. Dunne will look tired and hackneyed. He’s very vulnerable to some clever one-liners about trust, adVancing and emails.

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  13. jedmo (33 comments) says:

    Richard Prebble in The Listener has a good article with similar leanings and predictions to Bob Jones’s

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  14. Mark (1,488 comments) says:

    Bob is on the money again. Dunn will get in if he stands, ACT need to find someone credible which may be a bridge too far. I hope colin Craig gets into parliament simply for the entertainment value alone. We have had some fruit loops in the past but none of this quality. He will keep the media entertained ….for a while at least.

    Keys announcement on who they will work with is not at all surprising. The more important question that the Journo’s need to ask is what price is he prepared to pay?

    I live in hope that they will creep over the 50% so we dont have to deal with the inane policies that are only of interest to 1 or 2% of the population.

    iMP I think you are a bit hopeful that Colin Craig will have across the board appeal. Bob is right that most New Zealanders have got past the flat earth stage and accept that evolution can be taught in schools.

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  15. iMP (2,416 comments) says:

    Well Mark, when I say “across the board,” enough to score 112,000 voters (5%) compared to the other minor party leaders in their debates. In 2011 as a complete unknown, he got 87,000, so I think he’s almost there. He will appeal to more peeps than Harawira, Dunne or ACT’s yet to be announced Leader (which is all a bit late). Enough of his issues resonate wider than Mana or UF do.

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  16. KevinH (1,234 comments) says:

    Nice try Bob but the analysis is wide of the mark, the Maori Party and Mana will be back and certainly are not in any state of disarray. Both parties are working hard at grass roots level where their support is, a place alien to Sir Bob.
    Dotcom is the X factor in this election if he gets off the ground, he will directly challenge the Greens who by default have enjoyed the protest vote for years, now there is an alternative for the youth electorate.
    The lifeline thrown to Dunne by Key will see him return emboldened, it will also rule him out( Dunne) from any left coalition.
    It is still an uphill battle for Labour, the acid will be on Cunliffe to perform or Labour will shrink out of sight.
    Winston is the winner all round, he has options and NZ First are looking strong enough to grow their vote thereby securing more seats.

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  17. Shazzadude (531 comments) says:

    iMP: “Well Mark, when I say “across the board,” enough to score 112,000 voters (5%) compared to the other minor party leaders in their debates. In 2011 as a complete unknown, he got 87,000, so I think he’s almost there. He will appeal to more peeps than Harawira, Dunne or ACT’s yet to be announced Leader (which is all a bit late). Enough of his issues resonate wider than Mana or UF do.”

    The Conservatives got 59,237 votes, not 87,000. 59,000 is halfway there, and still enough for a decent swag of seats if Colin Craig can get McCully to stand aside.

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  18. Liberal Minded Kiwi (1,571 comments) says:

    Good lord. What are people even entertaining the idea of Colin Craig being in Parliament with his ragtag bunch of throw-aways from other parties? National cannot be that desperate.

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  19. Manolo (14,018 comments) says:

    National cannot be that desperate.

    The truth is they are.

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  20. Pete George (23,676 comments) says:

    National aren’t desperate, Key is simply dealing with the reality of MMP. Labour are the ones who are desperate to get power back, and Greens must almost be despairing of ever getting their hands on a bit of power.

    I’d rather be in Key’s position than Cunliffe’s right now.

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