Fairfax scores their predictions

January 1st, 2014 at 10:00 am by David Farrar

score their 2013 predictions:

At an annual salary of almost $145,000 plus allowances, Brendan Horan will continue to believe he is needed in the House and will tough out the criticisms and stay on in Parliament – unless the police intervene. 10/10. With a backdated pay rise before Christmas, this is a prediction with legs for 2014.

Rarely lose if you predict an MP will hang on!

Official interest rates will end the year no higher than they started it at 2.5 per cent, and if the Reserve Bank moves at all it will be to cut the OCR. 10/10.  vary as to when the bank will move in 2014, with March the new favourite. But it flatlined in 2013.

It’s been 2.5% since March 2011, so a fairly safe and accurate prediction.

David Shearer will win unanimous support for his leadership from his caucus in the February vote, and remain safe from any serious challenge throughout the year. 0/10. As wrong as a wrong thing. No-one knows for sure how the vote went, but unanimous it wasn’t. Neither does jumping before you are pushed qualify as “safe from a serious challenge”.

I thought he would stay also.

Aaron Gilmore will return to Parliament and be joined by a least one other replacement list MP – though Gilmore will make no better an impression in 2013 than first time around. 9/10. We were simply too kind. One mark off because we did not pick how much worse he could be. The luckless Mr Gilmore out-did his own bad press as he came and went in just a few months. 

Could mark lower for not predicting he would go, but to be fair no one did.

5 Arise Sir Lockwood Smith. The former Speaker will be knighted in the Queen’s Birthday honours. 10/10. A bit like putting a dollar on the All Blacks to beat Japan, but on the money all the same.

As inevitable as the sun rise.

Hekia Parata will remain in Cabinet but lose the education portfolio. 3/10. We were holding our breath when the OECD figures showed New Zealand’s rankings plummeting but John Key held his nerve and she not only kept her seat at the top table, she kept the education role too.

Most of the plummeting is for kids who had their primary education under the last Government.

Labour will rewrite its list selection rules to give the regions and the unions less power, but not without a major controversy. 6/10. They rewrote the rules along those lines, but we failed to pick the major controversy would be around gender quotas and the late-but-unlamented “man ban”.

I’m not at all sure the new rules give unions less power.

National will fail to find a cross party “consensus” on changes to the MMP rules, but Opposition parties will pledge to implement the main Electoral Commission recommendations if they win power. 7.5/10. Sure enough Justice Minister Judith Collins used the “no consensus” line to justify no change, but the Opposition has not waited for the election but is rallying behind Iain Lees-Galloway’s member’s bill.

I’d score that one 10/10

The referendum opposing the sale of state assets will get the numbers and go ahead in October. But the partial sale of Mighty River Power will go ahead, after the Maori court challenge over water rights fails. The Government will also sell shares in Meridian and Genesis in 2013.7/10. The referendum went ahead (but in November) and the Government did sell three of its planned partial privatisations, although it opted for Air NZ ahead of Genesis after the share market developed indigestion over energy shares.

I never thought Genesis would go ahead in 2013. I believe Solid Energy would have, if it had not near collapsed.

10 John Key will make international headlines again for a gaffe to rival the Beckham putdown, but he will resist the urge to become a full time talkback host. 2.5/10

No gaffe, gov’r

11 Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples will bow to pressure and give up the co-leadership, opening the way for Te Ururoa Flavell. But Dr Sharples will not relinquish his portfolios. On the button! It’s a shame they don’t give more than10/10.

A good call.

12 Maurice Williamson and one other minister will announce they will not stand for re-election in 2014. 4/10. Come on Maurice – don’t keep us waiting! Oh, all right then, stay. Chris Tremain did surprise everyone with his decision to call politics quits. Kate Wilkinson and Phil Heatley were pushed out of Cabinet and have joined the exodus.

Keep watching – but maybe not for Maurice!

13 A new Right-wing party will emerge, offering to fill the need for an ally for National. But National will be less than enthusiastic. 6/10. There are a number of contenders including the 1Law4All Party that recently pamphlet-bombed some suburbs with policies that hark back to Don Brash’s Orewa speech. There is also a rumoured ACT-like party in the wings, but so far National only has eyes for its existing allies – and Colin Craig’s Conservatives.

A bit generous there. The party cited is a fringe party that will make no impact. Unless they have a significant leader or funding base, hardly counts.

14 The Government will launch the year with a major economic policy promising to boost job numbers and make employment its top priority. 9/10. It made the promises all right, with a John Key speech launching a big push on apprenticeships. Forests also gave their all for a series of glossy “business growth agenda” booklets. But did anyone notice?

Safe prediction that the Government will focus on jobs.

15 A minister will resign over allegations surrounding events that emerge from the past. 10/10. ACT leader and minister John Banks quit after he was hauled into court to defend his disclosure of donations during his campaign for the Auckland mayoralty.

Possibly a bit generous there. The resignation was not over events that emerged from his past. The events were well known in 2012.

16 As a consolation for missing out on the speakership, National list MP Tau Henare will be offered a diplomatic post in the Pacific. 3/10. Sure enough he missed out to new Speaker David Carter and was apparently sounded out on whether he was angling for a post, but it seems no formal offer was made.

His Excellency Tau Henare – has a ring to it :-)

17 The Greens will not top 15 per cent in any major poll in 2013. 9.5/10. The third party’s support has held up remarkably well during the year, but it only hit 15 per cent once – in the volatile Roy Morgan survey – and never bettered its target mark. So we are claiming vindication by a nose.

More recently Labour seem to be taking support from them.

18 Andrew Little and David Clark will be promoted to the Labour top 12 and Nanaia Mahuta will not hold the prime responsibility for education by year’s end. 6.5/10. Two out of three aint bad. Ms Mahuta gave way to Chris Hipkins in education. He hung on despite being on the wrong side of the leadership spill. David Clark did scrape into the top 12, before being demoted after the change at the top. Mr Little is still waiting . . .

Cunliffe demoted Clark to 20. still unsure why.

19 Growth will fall short of Treasury’s pick of 2.3 per cent in the year to March but the economic mandarins will be closer to the mark on unemployment, which will be near their 6.9 per cent forecast. 0/10. Don’t take investment advice from us (or Treasury). Growth actually bettered Treasury’s forecast reaching 2.7 per cent in the March year, while unemployment fell to a surprisingly low 6.2 per cent – though there was some questioning of the data.

A good one to be wrong on.

20 David Bain will be paid some compensation, even though a second review will be more ambivalent about his innocence – but he will get less than $1 million. 0/10. We are still awaiting the final outcome.

A new review will start once the judicial review action by Bain is dealt with.

Their overall score was 133/200. Not bad.

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13 Responses to “Fairfax scores their predictions”

  1. duggledog (1,559 comments) says:

    Hekia Parata was a stoolie, the Ed portfolio is a poisoned chalice for a National minister. The job comes with instant belligerence from the vicious teacher unions

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  2. martinh (1,257 comments) says:

    looking forward to hearing who the hint is about that you gave in terms of an MP resigning. Go on tell us

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  3. Keeping Stock (10,342 comments) says:

    Cunliffe demoted Clark to 20. still unsure why.

    Because beyond tweeting Labour Party slogans, David Clark has been a non-event. He came to Parliament with a big reputation, but has thus far failed to deliver.

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  4. bhudson (4,740 comments) says:

    Cunliffe demoted Clark to 20. still unsure why.

    Well there was the little incident at the Leaders Idol event in Dunedin North where Clark’s local Party people challenged Mrs Cunliffe’s right to accompany her husband to the private part of the event and demanded evidence of her Party membership.

    The guy could probably count himself lucky that he’s not warming a seat lower down than Mallard.

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  5. Bazar (37 comments) says:

    I’d say they were very generous with their scoring.

    2.5/10 for JK not making a gaffe or becoming a talk back announcer?
    6/10 for the new labour party rules?

    “9 …Mighty River Power will go ahead, after the Maori court challenge over water rights fails. ”
    Didn’t the government go ahead and proceed with selling MRP while it was still in dispute? I don’t think you can claim the court challenge delayed the asset sales, which is what i feel that statement implies.

    So getting the wrong date of the referendum, the wrong list of asset sales, implying a delay that never happened, gave 7/10?

    “A new Right-wing party will emerge” 6/10?
    The listed party isn’t right-wing, its simply anti-maorism. Then giving points for national not promoting them?

    Honestly, whoever they have reviewing their score needs to harden up. Too many free points given simply for trying.

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  6. ross69 (3,652 comments) says:

    Fairfax thought David Bain would be paid compo? Must have been after too many drinks on a Friday…

    a second review will be more ambivalent about his innocence

    I’ll be a little more forthright. A second review will conclude that Bain likely murdered his family, thereby consigning his compo claim to history. That however won’t stop the bleating from the Bain cultists. Let’s not forget that it’s all about David and his family mean nothing to him.

    The wrongful conviction of me in 1995 took away my inheritance. My Dad had a beautiful collection of string instruments and Mum had her pottery. These items are only a tiny amount of the items they collected during their lives and all have been lost to me. Further examples are Stephen’s trumpet and Arawa’s flute, a collection of opals from Australia, a collection of Royal Doulton pieces, artwork, books, music, the land and the house itself.

    On top of all this, Mum and Dad had amassed an impressive library of photos and videos documenting the many years they had been together and our family growing up together. All of these items, while not having great monetary value, all have a far higher sentimental value to me as they were my family’s possessions and would have been the things I could have remembered them by. Now all I have are the few photos released by my relatives to the Court for Use during the 2009 retrial.

    I have been told that I had the potential to have a career as successful as the New Zealand opera singer Jonathan Lemalu. Mr Lemalu is now engaged two years in advance and is singing all over the world. In 1992, my singing teacher told me when I started lessons that I had a wonderful voice and that I could one day create a valuable career for myself. … The wrongful conviction of me and the time I spent in prison meant that the life I was planning has gone out the window. I feel as though I lost the major earning years of my life.

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  7. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    The only Fairfax news I would like to see would be Gina purging the stables of those pushing their evil left-wing agendas. What once were a respected bunch of newspapers, have now turned into nothing other than Labour/Green propaganda sheets. Even their rural publication “Straight Furrow” has been hijacked by these pathetic socialist losers.

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  8. Pete George (23,591 comments) says:

    Well there was the little incident at the Leaders Idol event in Dunedin North where Clark’s local Party people challenged Mrs Cunliffe’s right to accompany her husband to the private part of the event and demanded evidence of her Party membership.

    It wasn’t quite like that, it was in Dunedin South with Clare Curran also involved with Clark. They both also publicly announced on the eve of the Dunedin leadership vote that they supported Grant Robertson which didn’t go down very well. And Cunliffe demoted both of them.

    As per Keeping Stock David Clark has been a big disappointment. He doesn’t seem to have graduated from electioneering slogans. He has launched into issues with only a superficial knowledge – for example he got it wrong when he said tax was on revenue when as Revenue spokesperson he took a swipe at foreign corporations.

    Clark spoke very well during the marriage debate, and he was lucky to get exposure when his (actually given to him by Robertson) Mondayisation bill was drawn at the start of his term. But apart from that he hasn’t stepped up at all. So Cunliffe dropped him down the order, along with Curran who has also failed to step up.

    And Clark seems to still be struggling. Back as Revenue spokesperson he was slammed last month.

    Labour’s David Clark needs IRD 101 refresher course

    “Labour Revenue spokesman David Clark has issued possibly the worst press release in 50 years,” says Revenue Minister Todd McClay.

    “David Clark’s overcooked and scattergun media statement today about supposed IT failings at Inland Revenue speaks volumes about his superficial understanding of Revenue issues”.

    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1312/S00249/labours-david-clark-needs-ird-101-refresher-course.htm

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  9. Rowan (2,409 comments) says:

    Righty oh Ross
    With your current hit rate regarding Bain predictions of 0.00000%, shall we be to surprised when you get this one wrong to?

    Whether or not DB is paid compensation or not is irrelevant, it doesn’t change the facts of what happened, if he isn’t it will just be another pathetic attempt from Collins to cover up the truth, instead of doing the right thing.

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  10. ross69 (3,652 comments) says:

    With your current hit rate regarding Bain predictions of 0.00000%, shall we be to surprised when you get this one wrong to?

    Actually I’m doing pretty well. I never expected Bain to be compensated last year and he wasn’t. I fully expected him to tell porkies to Binnie and he duly obliged. I anticipated that he would rave on about himself to the exclusion of his murdered family, and he did that to a T. But to be fair, I was surprised when he thought he could’ve been the next Pavarotti. :)

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  11. Nostalgia-NZ (5,220 comments) says:

    I see your New Year’s resolution was to continue being an idiot ross69. Good work, you’re well qualified.

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  12. Rowan (2,409 comments) says:

    Lets see Ross
    The PC “would never” quash the conviction – fail
    The retrial “would” find him guilty – fail
    DB would “never” apply for compensation – fail
    JK would “never” sue anyone for defamation – fail
    Anyone tasked with independently assessing whether David was guilty or innocent would “obviously” find him guilty – fail
    As to telling porkies to Binnie, well if you pre-determine that it is “obviously” a lie, then you can call this a victory in your own shallow mind, but as its not a lie then this gives you another fail. When you post why not include the question that was actually asked as opposed to spinning the answer to put it in a bad light? is that because the truth doesn’t support your spin?

    So still 0.00000%, Nos have I left anything out?

    Heres a prediction for you Ross, how long will it be before Kent Parker is bankrupted by the courts? What would be suitable damages for him to pay up for his trial by media witch-hunt?

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  13. Rowan (2,409 comments) says:

    Nos
    Love your latest blog piece. Great stuff.

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