Hide rules out Epsom

January 12th, 2014 at 11:00 am by David Farrar

writes in the Hos:

Good and loyal friends have suggested that I put my name forward to be ’s candidate in .

They have supported me over many years and therefore I have given their advice serious consideration.

It’s a crucial role. But for Act’s success in Epsom in 2008, Helen Clark would have remained Prime Minister. And its success in 2011 also kept Labour out of power.

That’s why the attacks on John Banks are so intense and sustained. Act’s success has proved the difference between a National-led Government and a Labour-Green one.

Very true. Without ACT both times, the Maori Party would have held the balance of power and may well have gone with Labour and the Greens.

Act provides a much-needed political counterweight to the other parties calling always for more government spending and ever-more regulation.

We need a champion for individual freedom and personal responsibility. Act is that champion.

Sadly, much bruised.

And now the position of Act candidate for Epsom is open again. I am very pleased Act has excellent candidates in prospect. I have concluded it can’t be me.

I now don’t have the necessary passion and enthusiasm to do the job well. Yes, I loved it and I gave it everything I had. And then some. But it’s gone now. I am not sure why that is. It just is.

There was a time when Winston Peters could rattle an entire government, bringing ministers to their knees. Now, even junior ministers get the better of him.

I think it’s sad. Peters appears like some aged rock star who has partied way too hard and is now up on stage trying to relive the glory days. Or perhaps a champion boxer who has stayed too long in the ring. I wouldn’t want that.

I thought the worst thing for Peters was getting dumped in 2008. No. The worst thing for Peters was getting back in 2011.

New MPs snigger at him. There was a time he would have swatted them down like flies.

Knowing when to go is important in politics.

I have a project under way in Christchurch. We have a third baby due in July. I have new and different challenges ahead.

Plus if Rodney stood again for Epsom, we’d lost him as a great columnist!

In a related story, Cameron Brewer (again) rules himself out for Epsom, but Matthew Hooton is listed as considering throwing his name in the ring saying ACT needs a generational change.

 

Tags: , ,

43 Responses to “Hide rules out Epsom”

  1. Andrew McMillan (50 comments) says:

    We need a champion for individual freedom

    Hooton’s right, there needs to be a generational change; but this is Kim Dotcom territory now…

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 15 You need to be logged in to vote
  2. backster (2,195 comments) says:

    He sums up Peters very well.

    Vote: Thumb up 19 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  3. flash2846 (289 comments) says:

    The reality is that New Zealand absolutely needs both ACT and the Conservatives; otherwise this wonderful country will be raped and pillaged by the riff-raff mana/greens/labour/Winston first. They will rape us and without conscience blame us for it.

    Popular. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 38 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  4. Pete George (23,793 comments) says:

    He sums up Peters very well.

    Similar sentiments could be applied to John Bank’s attempt at a comeback. Both have struggled.

    The main difference being that Banks has been the target of extensive attempts to trash him, with substantial help by the media, while Peters gets a free pass for his attempts to trash others. But both are nowhere near their best and fading.

    Vote: Thumb up 17 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  5. Chuck Bird (4,891 comments) says:

    “The main difference being that Banks has been the target of extensive attempts to trash him, with substantial help by the media, while Peters gets a free pass for his attempts to trash others. But both are nowhere near their best and fading.”

    And Peter Dunne is near his best?

    Vote: Thumb up 19 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  6. Fisiani (1,052 comments) says:

    The smart move for National would be to openly gift Epsom east coast bay and Ohariu snd explain that this is the price of saving NZ from the Green Taliban. It’s the party vote that counts. Electorate seats are largely irrelevant but can be used strategically to get a Centre Right majority

    Popular. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 24 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  7. Jack5 (5,274 comments) says:

    Why are they discounting Colin Craig?

    Vote: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 5 You need to be logged in to vote
  8. Jack5 (5,274 comments) says:

    Pete George (11.36) says both Banks and Peters “are nowhere near their best and fading”.

    Does that apply to Peter Dunne, too?

    Has Mummy given him back his cellphone yet?

    Vote: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 3 You need to be logged in to vote
  9. Joanne (177 comments) says:

    Rodney is wise not going back into Parliament. ACT certainly should have a place in Parliament. Conservatives – really? Chemtrails and all that – not sure. United Future = Peter Dunne, possibly.

    At this stage it certainly will be an interesting year.

    Vote: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  10. davidp (3,585 comments) says:

    Fisiani>The smart move for National would be to openly gift Epsom east coast bay and Ohariu snd explain that this is the price of saving NZ from the Green Taliban.

    I agree. National should announce that for the election they will agree coalition agreements with any parties that want them, before the election, and then not stand a candidate in seats where the coalition partner is likely to win. That is better for National’s chances of forming a government, and also more transparent for the election since they will be fully informed about what they’re voting for rather than having coalitions decided after the election in smoke filled rooms.

    Popular. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 20 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  11. labrator (1,851 comments) says:

    If only John Banks had joined the Conservatives and Don Brash had retired.

    Vote: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  12. Pete George (23,793 comments) says:

    Dunne had, as he has acknowledged, his worst time in politics last year, But he hasn’t dropped out and then tried to make a comeback, he hung in there. And as others here have said he offers a reliable option for National, unlike Banks and Peters. If he gets back in he already has his parliamentary infrastructure in place.

    Vote: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 3 You need to be logged in to vote
  13. Mobile Michael (473 comments) says:

    Loved Hide’s digs at Winston, not too subtle about someones time bding up.

    Of ths current speculated and confirmed candidates, Matthew Hooten probably has the best profile and chance to retain Epsom. Although I suspect his name won’t be in the final list.

    Vote: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  14. Joanne (177 comments) says:

    labrator

    ‘If only John Banks had joined the Conservatives and Don Brash had retired.’

    Agree re Don Brash. Of all the minor parties ACT, Conservatives and United Future, ACT is the one with the most going for it. Supporters of ACT that I know have thought through the logistics of issues.

    The Conservatives appear (and I might me wrong) still about in cloud-cuckoo-land. The thought of a party leader talking about the right to smack kids is weird. If I can’t hit another adult, why should I be able to hit my child. All this to say I don’t believe they have the depth yet.

    I am sick of parties (namely opposition) not thinking about the mechanics of their policies.

    Vote: Thumb up 10 Thumb down 4 You need to be logged in to vote
  15. rg (214 comments) says:

    Mathew Hoten says that we need ACT because John Key’s National is the most interventionist (& therefore one presumes the least National like) National Party since Mulddon. As more and more National Party loyalists finally see what a disaster John Key is for the right and move to ACT we will see a stronger ACT Party which will be able to force National to stick to some of the principles of individual responsibility and freedom and market forces, that they have abandoned since 2008.

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 9 You need to be logged in to vote
  16. Fisiani (1,052 comments) says:

    National should publicly declars that they are open to being a coalition government and ask parties to declare prior to the election if theyare willing toenter coalition. If the Maori party will side with National then no national candidate will stand. In three other seats the candidate will be on tbe list but not on the electorate ballot paper. This could produce a 5 party coalition with 70 seats.

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  17. dcrown (22 comments) says:

    Really, is this what the right wing needs right now, another raving lunatic conspiracy theorist?
    First Colin Craig and now people are seriously talking up Rodney Hide?
    Is someone going to suggest that Leighton Smith or Ian Wishart run to the right of National next?

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 12 You need to be logged in to vote
  18. Manolo (14,165 comments) says:

    But he hasn’t dropped out and then tried to make a comeback, he hung in there.

    Can Andrea confirm that? Ohariu’s fantasist’s still slobbering and drooling while texting her? :-)

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 5 You need to be logged in to vote
  19. NK (1,259 comments) says:

    First Colin Craig and now people are seriously talking up Rodney Hide?

    In case you missed it, Hide is not coming back to politics. It’s in the Herald article; and referred to in these comments just above.

    Vote: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  20. Colville (2,318 comments) says:

    There are comments above advocating for the Nats to not stand in 3 seats as these seats would be held by natural coalition partners and statements to be made to that effect prior to election. I believe this would be near suicide unless handled with utmost care. Obviously Nats cant go into coalition with CCCP as Craig has said that the anti smacking bill is a deal breaker, Nats wont accept that condition and as such could say that they are willing to work with Craig on issues that they have in common but without CCCP in a formal coalition.
    Nats ruling as a minority govt next term?

    Vote: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  21. adze (2,130 comments) says:

    Craig is nuts to try and die in a ditch over the anti-smacking bill. That ship has sailed.

    Vote: Thumb up 10 Thumb down 3 You need to be logged in to vote
  22. BlairM (2,340 comments) says:

    Yes, Rodney is right – there are no second acts in politics. The only exceptions were Prebble, who I thought acquitted himself well on his second go-around, and Churchill, who had about six of them and somehow managed to pick himself up and dust himself off every time it happened!

    I’m glad he is enjoying life outside of parliament, and his family. I wish him well.

    Vote: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  23. Shazzadude (531 comments) says:

    Mobile Michael: “Loved Hide’s digs at Winston, not too subtle about someones time bding up.”

    It struck me as a bitter response from a man who went from the highs of supposedly ending Winston’s career, to leaving in disgrace as Winston walked back through the front door.

    Vote: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 3 You need to be logged in to vote
  24. David Garrett (7,698 comments) says:

    Joanne: Can you really not see the difference between smacking your child to correct/discipline him/her and hitting another adult? You really can’t see it?

    Let me try and help….

    Both of my children got the odd smack on the leg…all prior to about age 6 or 7 when it was no longer necesessary …because they are CHILDREN who often need protecting from themselves….Another adult is presumed to know it’s dangerous to play with matches; poke forks in plugs; wave knives at their sister; smash things deliberately….Please tell me you can see the difference??

    Blair M: I believe Rodney could pull off a comeback…but I am pretty certain he is not planning to try…

    Vote: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 3 You need to be logged in to vote
  25. Viking2 (11,668 comments) says:

    This election year looks like it will be fun.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11185154

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  26. PaulL (5,446 comments) says:

    @Pete George: I seem to recall that Peter Dunne is quite happy to go with Labour when the cards fall that way. It’s not clear whether he might do that in preference if given the chance. It’d be a little unusual for National to stand aside in his favour if they weren’t guaranteed he wouldn’t support the other side. But guaranteeing he’d go with National would pretty much ruin his position on the political spectrum. Therefore I conclude that it won’t happen, no matter how much United might need it to happen.

    Vote: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  27. Pete George (23,793 comments) says:

    Paul – Dunne has made it clear that Labour as they stand at the moment aren’t an option for coalition, too many core policy differences.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  28. Shazzadude (531 comments) says:

    I think Peter Dunne has proven that he will always go with National if they have the numbers. He’s only gone with Labour when they haven’t.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  29. lolitasbrother (774 comments) says:

    what a great person Rodney has turned out to be, he has risen above the politic to be writer and in my opinion a statesman,
    if we became a republic I would vote Rodney for President, I mean it

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  30. lolitasbrother (774 comments) says:

    sorry to come in again , but what a great guy he is Mr Rodney Hide

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  31. MH (830 comments) says:

    i think it was his overseas trips that made him stand out as a statesman. like so many before and after.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  32. KevinH (1,253 comments) says:

    Hide’s refusal to stand for Epsom is an admission that Act is history and that even with him at the helm Epsom may be unwinnable for Act.
    Hide may enjoy the luxury of having a dig at Winston but the polls indicate that NZ First are poised to hold the balance of power in 2014. You cannot write Winston off, he is the ultimate political survivor in NZ politics. He has outlasted his critics including Rodney and looks set to continue on in 2014 and beyond.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  33. bhudson (4,741 comments) says:

    This election year looks like it will be fun.

    Dotcom’s catchment pool for votes would seem to be those that could be bothered to make submissions on the GCSB Bill.

    A Fishing Party would have more chance, it would seem.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  34. Pete George (23,793 comments) says:

    “Hide’s refusal to stand for Epsom is an admission that Act is history ”

    No it’s not, it’s an admission by Hide that he doesn’t want to stand again, that’s all.

    “You cannot write Winston off, he is the ultimate political survivor”

    No he’s not. He didn’t survive in 2008. He was helped substantially by media (and by having free time to campaign all year) and rose again in 2011 but he is mostly failing to impose himself in Parliament this term, he’s nowhere near what he used to be as a force in politics. He looks like he’s on life support at times, and so is his party that is almost totally reliant on him.

    You can’t write him off, but he’s far from a dead cert next election.

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  35. Alan (1,087 comments) says:

    “Fisiani>The smart move for National would be to openly gift Epsom east coast bay and Ohariu snd explain that this is the price of saving NZ from the Green Taliban.”

    It wouldn’t be smart, it’d be dumb. Such a rort of the system would be very dumb. Do you really think the left would sit back and take it ? If National were to do this, it’d force labour into cutting a identical deal on the left, perhaps withdrawing from the Maori seats and letting Mana take all seven of them?

    All it’d do would create a escalating arms race of fake parties and increase the over hang more and more with impacting on the balance of power in the house.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  36. Chris2 (775 comments) says:

    Has there been any electoral advantage in National allowing Peter Dunne to have Ohariu given he has not bought in additional MP’s.

    Would the outcome for National at the 2011 election been different if it had “reclaimed” Ohariu for itself?

    This is not a comment on Dunne, I’m just interested how the seats in Parlaiment would have been affected if National took back the seat for itself.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  37. Alan (1,087 comments) says:

    Assuming UF retained the 13k party votes they got, then it’d have made a fairly big difference, size of house would be reduced by 1, national would have no net changes, there would have been no majority in the house for the sale of assets. The Maori party would hold the real balance of power.

    The 13,000 list votes they got are also important. Their destination would determine who ruled.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  38. Graeme Edgeler (2,972 comments) says:

    Very true. Without ACT both times, the Maori Party would have held the balance of power and may well have gone with Labour and the Greens.

    Nope, in 2008, United Future had ruled out supporting Labour. If Hide had lost Epsom, the best Labour could have done, even if the Maori Party had agreed to support Labour was 61 seats out of 122. Even without ACT, National was the only viable government.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  39. PaulL (5,446 comments) says:

    If National held Ohariu then they’d have lost a list seat – their total share of the list vote wouldn’t have changed. That would mean the United vote would have been wasted, and either parliament would have one less seat (if Ohariu was an overhang seat), or that the wasted votes are effectively distributed equally between the remaining parties. Either way it’s net negative for National.

    At it’s most extreme, National could set up an electorate party and a list party. The list party contests no seats, the electorate party doesn’t seek any list votes. It would double the number of seats they hold. The art of politics under MMP is to do something along those lines without losing control (i.e. you now have two parties that can argue with each other) and without pissing off voters. Labour sort of thought they were doing something like that with the Maori Party, but it turns out that the Maori Party has a lot in common with National.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  40. Alan (1,087 comments) says:

    @Graeme “Nope, in 2008, United Future had ruled out supporting Labour. If Hide had lost Epsom, the best Labour could have done, even if the Maori Party had agreed to support Labour was 61 seats out of 122.”

    You’ve just assumed a politician would actually keep a pre-election promise, in all circumstances. Dangerous thing to do.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  41. Shazzadude (531 comments) says:

    Pete George:

    “You cannot write Winston off, he is the ultimate political survivor”

    “No he’s not. He didn’t survive in 2008.”

    It took months of sustained negative media coverage, and even throughout all that he still managed to get more than 4% of the vote. The political career of any other politician would’ve been completely dead in the water after what he came up against. That he managed to get back into parliament in such emphatic fashion is testament to his being the ultimate political survivor.

    “You can’t write him off, but he’s far from a dead cert next election.”

    New Zealand First is 6/6 exceeding 5% of the vote and 4/5 increasing their vote when coming off a term spent entirely outside of government, history is squarely in his favour.

    The person who is under pressure however is Peter Dunne. Boundary changes (Korokoro and Maungaraki moving to Hutt South, Normandale to Rimutaka and 4000 votes gained from Wadestown) have wiped out his majority over Labour. His political future likely relies on National not even standing a candidate at all.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  42. Nikki Pender (18 comments) says:

    Paul L:

    At it’s most extreme, National could set up an electorate party and a list party. The list party contests no seats, the electorate party doesn’t seek any list votes. It would double the number of seats they hold. The art of politics under MMP is to do something along those lines without losing control (i.e. you now have two parties that can argue with each other) and without pissing off voters.

    I wanted to test this idea using the MMP seat allocation calcutor. Using last Election’s results, I kept National and Labour’s party vote count but gave their electorate seats to the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis and Alliance parties respectively. All other results remained the same.

    Had the parties done as you suggest back then, we would now have 185 MPs in our current Parliament. That’s one way to keep unemployment levels down. Keep those ideas coming Paul :)

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  43. Pete George (23,793 comments) says:

    Shazzadude – history is not in Winston’s favour, he has far too much of it, and age and lifestyle seems to be having an effect.

    Yes, Dunne is under pressure. He was under pressure last election and survived despite media trying to munt him. This one may be harder but it depends at least as much on who Labour stand and how they approach their campaign in Ohariu. And how the electorate looks back on last year. He took a big hit but had a surprising amount of support bounce.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote